Monday, November 7, 2016
Clinton's odds of winning election spike on Betfair after FBI clears her again
Hillary Clinton's odds of winning the presidency spiked on Betfair on Sunday after the FBI announced that it had reviewed newly discovered emails and cleared her again.
On British betting market Betfair, Clinton's odds of victory had tanked after the FBI reactivated its investigation. By the end of last week, with polls tightening, Clinton's odds had dropped to about 70%.
Over the past two days, however, as news of early voting in Nevada led some to conclude that Clinton would carry the state, Clinton's odds began to rise again. And Sunday afternoon, after the FBI announcement, they spiked over 80% again.
Here's the latest chart from Betfair:
Clinton's odds have also recovered this weekend on another betting market, PredictWise, and now stand at 87%.
The latest poll averages, meanwhile, remain modestly in Clinton's favor, as do the odds of statisticians like FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver.
In the latest national poll average from RealClearPolitics, Clinton has a 1.8-point lead in the two-way race:
The data-based political analysts generally agree that Clinton is ahead.
Using a state-by-state poll average, for example, FiveThirtyEight's Silver estimates that Hillary Clinton's odds of winning are now about 65%. These odds have dropped from about 85% before the FBI announced that it was reactivating the email investigation. (Poll averages are obviously lagging indicators and take time to reflect new news.)