Thursday, August 25, 2016
'Inactivity rules:' These are some of the quietest markets for 10 years
August is the quietest month, but this year's is particularly special.
This year the markets are dead.
While August is usually the month for taking a long holiday, in 2015, China's currency devaluation and stock market crash made sure the month was volatile.
In the years before that, the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis kept the August news flow moving.
Deutsche Bank's head of global fundamental credit stragy, Jim Reid, puts out a daily note on the markets for clients and is having a tough time coming to terms with the lack of movement.
He noted on Thursday he wrote: "Markets continue to behave like they've eaten too much cake and need to lie in the corner and do nothing in order to recover. Inactivity rules."
And the day before Reid said: "The sun is shining, markets are dull, if my knee surgeon was a more understanding person I’d be sneaking off early today to squeeze in a round of golf before dark."
He noted that "the S&P 500 closed -0.52% yesterday which is actually the fourth biggest move up or down this month. Still, it marked the 33rd consecutive session that the index has failed to break +/- 1%."
But the starkest indicator of how dull things are is found in the US 10-year Treasuries market.
Reid cited a chart from Bloomberg News that shows "that the monthly trading range in 10 year US Treasuries is so far in August the lowest for 10 years."
Here is the chart: