Thursday, March 9, 2017

Traders are certain that the Fed is going to hike rates at next week's meeting

Traders are certain that the Fed is going to hike rates at next week's meeting

janet yellen traders nyse fedLucas Jackson/Reuters
Futures traders are fully convinced that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its March 14-15 meeting. 
On Wednesday, Bloomberg's World Interest Rate Probability reflected a 100% probability of a hike next week. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to increase its benchmark fed funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 0.75%-1%. 
Traders hiked their bets after a report from the ADP Research Institute showed that the US economy added 298,000 private payrolls in February, the highest monthly gain since January 2006.
"Just two weeks ago I thought it was highly improbable that March was a possibility," said Greg Peters, a senior investment officer with PGIM Fixed Income.
However, expectations began to rise as several Fed officials, including Chair Janet Yellen, spoke out in support of raising interest rates sooner rather than later. 
"At our meeting later this month, the committee will evaluate whether employment and inflation are continuing to evolve in line with our expectations, in which case a further adjustment of the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate," Yellen said in a speech in Chicago on March 3.
After leaving rates near zero to heal the post-recession economy, the Fed has raised rates only twice in this economic cycle. 
The Fed is expected to raise rates again even though its preferred measure of inflation — personal consumption expenditures — trails its 2% target.
The unemployment rate recently fell to a historic low of 4.8%, convincing Fed officials that the economy is near full employment. Friday's jobs report is not expected to deter the Fed from raising rates next week.
"What the Fed has to worry about is that if they hike in March, they also have to communicate to the market that this is not just a hike-every-quarter type of thing, kind of a hike cycle like we saw during the Greenspan era," Peters told Business Insider in a recent interview.   

Tuesday, March 7, 2017

Republicans have released their long-awaited plan to repeal Obamacare

Republicans have released their long-awaited plan to repeal Obamacare

Donald Trump Paul RyanDonald Trump with House Speaker Paul Ryan. Zach Gibson/Getty Images
House Republicans on Monday evening unveiled long-awaited legislation to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act, the healthcare law better known as Obamacare.
The basic structure of the plan appears similar to previous Republican efforts to dismantle the law including the draft of the bill that was leaked late last month.
The bill, called the American Health Care Act, would do away with Obamacare's individual mandate that compels all American to buy insurance or face a fine. Instead, it features penalties such as increased premiums for failing to maintain continuous coverage.
The AHCA also would shift funding for people accessing healthcare without help from an employer or the Medicare or Medicaid programs and adjust funding for the expansion of Medicaid.
Key parts of the bill include:
  • Allowing people with preexisting conditions to access coverage but penalizing lapses in coverage: Under the new law, insurers still could not deny coverage based on a preexisting condition, but anyone who does not have coverage for a period of 63 days or more in the previous year is subject to a 30% increase in premiums as a penalty. The idea would be to discourage people from waiting until they are sick to access coverage.
  • Introducing block tax credits for individuals to access health insurance: Instead of the ACA's tax credits, which adjusted the amount distributed based on income and the beneficiary's residence, the AHCA would give lump tax credits to Americans. The credits would be based on age, and an individual making over $75,000 or a household making over $150,000 a year would see a decrease in the credit depending on how much he or she made over that limit. Here's the breakdown of how much each age group would get:
    • Under 30: $2,000 a year
    • Age 30 to 39: $2,500 a year
    • Age 40 to 49: $3,000 a year
    • Age 50 to 59: $3,500 a year
    • Age 60 and above: $4,000 a year
  • Providing grants to establish high-risk pools and encourage enrollment: Much as with the leaked draft, the AHCA would include a fund for states to institute numerous programs to stabilize the insurance market, most notably "the provision of financial assistance, high-risk individuals who do not have access to health insurance coverage offered through an employer." This would allow states to establish high-risk pools for people with preexisting conditions, a plan often floated by Republicans. The plan would give states $15 billion in both 2018 and 2019 and $10 billion every year after that through 2026.
  • Changing the limit that insurers can charge older customers compared with younger customers: Under the ACA, insurers can charge older customers (generally sicker and more expensive to cover) no more than three times what they charge their youngest customers (generally healthier). The Republican bill would shift that to five times the amount.
  • Effectively defunding Planned Parenthood: The bill prohibits "direct spending" of federal dollars on any "prohibited entity" including those that provide abortions for anything other than the life of the mother, incest, or rape. This would seem to include Planned Parenthood.
  • Kick lottery winners off of Medicaid: The bill spends six pages detailing instances in which a person who receives a lump sum or large payments from winning the lottery would be kicked off of Medicaid.
President Donald Trump was quick to dive in with a tweet from the @POTUS account.
"House just introduced the bill to #RepealAndReplace #Obamacare. Time to end this nightmare," the tweet said.
House Speaker Paul Ryan said in a statement that the plan would help reform the American healthcare system.
"The American Health Care Act is a plan to drive down costs, encourage competition, and give every American access to quality, affordable health insurance," Ryan said. "It protects young adults, patients with preexisting conditions, and provides a stable transition so that no one has the rug pulled out from under them."
On the other end, Democrats were quick to criticize the proposal. Reps. Frank Pallone and Richard Neal, the top Democrats on the House Energy and Commerce Committee and the Ways and Means Committee, respectively, said in a joint statement that the bill would be detrimental to average Americans.
"The Republican repeal bill would rip healthcare away from millions of Americans, ration care for working families and seniors, and put insurance companies back in charge of healthcare decisions — contrary to everything President Trump has said he would do with his healthcare plan," the statement from Pallone and Neal said.
The bill faces a long path toward becoming law: It would have to be marked up by the Energy and Commerce Committee, passed by the House, debated by the Senate, and passed by the Senate, at least, before it could go to Trump's desk.
This path is also complicated by the fact that conservative members of the House and the Senate have come out against the tax-credits aspects of the House bill and criticized the leaked draft. Moderate Republicans have also criticized the lack of clarity over the future of Medicaid expansion, which is popular in states that have undertaken expansion.
Thus, the bill released the House GOP may face significant opposition from the Republican Party itself, to say nothing of the Democrats.
Here's the full bill:

China's FX reserves just recorded a shock increase

China's FX reserves just recorded a shock increase

Photo: iStock
Chinese FX reserves did something that hasn’t been seen in eight months in February.
They increased.
According to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), reserves lifted by $US6.92 billion to $US3.005 trillion during the month.
That came as a surprise to economists who were expecting a further decline of $US25 billion, and a reversal on the $US12.3 billion decrease reported in January.
Source: CBA
Over the course of 2016, China’s total FX reserves fell by $US320 billion, the largest annual drop since 1994.
That was partially driven by a rampant US dollar which gained 6.5% against the Chinese yuan, leading to a sharp increase in capital outflows as investors looked to protect against further yuan weakness.
Despite the recent reversal, Wei Li, China and Asia economist at the Commonwealth Bank, said that outflows likely totalled $US40 billion in February.
“According to our estimation, valuation effects, that is changes caused by exchange rate fluctuations and investment returns, resulted in a gain of $US45 billion in China’s FX reserves in February,” says Li.
“On the other hand, the PBoC is expected to have sold $US38 billion in the FX market to prop up the CNY… leading to a net increase of $US7 billion in China’s FX reserves in February.
Source: CBA
Li says that outflows have slowed in recent months, helped in part by a 0.8% increase in the yuan against the US dollar this year, tighter capital account controls introduced by China’s State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) and an improvement in the broader Chinese economy.
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Friday, March 3, 2017

Costco's same-store sales, profit miss estimates


Costco's same-store sales, profit miss estimates


Warehouse club retailer Costco Wholesale Corp (COST.O) reported lower-than-expected quarterly comparable-store sales and profit as big grocery chains competed fiercely to attract customers with lower prices.
The company's shares fell about 4 percent to $170.80 in extended trading on Thursday.
Price war in the industry has intensified, with Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT.N) reportedly running a new price-comparison test to knock out competition from grocery chains and big-box retailers.
The cut-throat competition has already hit supermarket operator Kroger Co (KR.N), which reported its first decline in quarterly comparable sales in 13 years on Thursday.
Costco's total same-store sales rose 3 percent in the second quarter ended Feb. 12, excluding the impact of changes in gasoline prices and foreign exchange.
Analysts on average were expecting 3.2 percent growth, according to research firm Consensus Metrix.
Costco said it would raise annual fees by $5 to $60 for Goldstar and business members and by $10 to $120 for executive memberships from June 1.
The fee increases will impact around 35 million members, roughly half of them executive members, the company said.
Membership fees accounted for about 72 percent of the Costco's operating income in 2016, according to the company's latest annual filing.
Net income attributable to Costco fell to $515 million, or $1.17 per share, in the latest quarter from $546 million, or $1.24 per share, a year earlier.
Excluding items, Costco earned $1.17 per share, while total revenue rose 5.7 percent to $29.77 billion.
Analysts on average had estimated adjusted earnings of $1.36 per share and revenue of $29.86 billion in the quarter, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Costco performed well in the last two quarters, despite a tough environment for retailers, as it partly benefited from paying lower fees to credit card partner Visa Inc (V.N).
The company completed the switch to Visa from American Express Co (AXP.N) during the fourth quarter last year.
(Reporting by Gayathree Ganesan and Sruthi Ramakrishnan in Bengaluru; Editing by Anil D'Silva)

Bitcoin climbs above gold for the first time

Bitcoin climbs above gold for the first time

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The price of one Bitcoin climbed above the price of one ounce of gold for the first time ever on Thursday.
The cryptocurrency climbed to $1,241.30 around 10:20 a.m. ET. Meanwhile, gold was around $1,241.25 at the time. Bitcoin dipped below the yellow metal minutes later, but then bounced back again.
As of 10:41 a.m. ET, Bitcoin is up by 1.8% at $1,248.10, while gold is down 0.6% at $1,242.15.
bitcoin and gold COTDBusiness Insider/Andy Kiersz, data from Bloomberg
Get the latest Bitcoin price here.

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Monday, February 27, 2017

London Stock Exchange: EU will probably kill our blockbuster merger with Deutsche Boerse

London Stock Exchange: EU will probably kill our blockbuster merger with Deutsche Boerse

The new Chief Executive of the London Stock Exchange, Xavier Rolet poses for photographers, in London February 13, 2009. The London Stock Exchange named former Lehman Brothers banker Xavier Rolet as its new Chief Executive, tasking him with tackling the twin challenges of rising competition and weak financial markets.London Stock Exchange CEO Xavier Rolet. REUTERS/Andrew Winning
(Reuters) - London Stock Exchange Group said on Sunday itbelieves the European Commission is unlikely to provide clearance for its merger with Deutsche Boerse AG after LSE's board concluded it would not be able to meet the regulator's demands.
LSE said in an emailed statement that the Commission had asked it to sell its stake in fixed income trading platform MTS to satisfy antitrust concerns over the merger of Europe's two largest stock exchange operators.
However, LSE said its board had concluded it could not commit to such a sale. The LSE said it would continue to take steps to gain merger approval.
Deutsche Boerse could not be reached for immediate comment.
LSE and Deutsche Borse agreed to combine last March in a deal that would create a market infrastructure giant worth at least £20 billion.
(Reporting by Ismail Shakil in Bengaluru; editing by Jason Neely)
Read the original article on Reuters. Copyright 2017. Follow Reuters on Twitter.

Samsung will announce the Galaxy S8 on March 29

Samsung will announce the Galaxy S8 on March 29

Samsung's next major smartphone is coming in a little over a month.
On Sunday the company sent invitations to the press for an event in New York City where it will announce the Galaxy S8, its first major product since the Galaxy Note 7 debacle last year. The event takes place Wednesday, March 29.
Here's a look at the invitation, which teases the new phone:
samsung galaxy s8 invitationSamsung
There's a lot of pressure on Samsung to nail the Galaxy S8 launch following the embarrassing Galaxy Note 7 explosions last year. Samsung released the findings of an investigation last month that looked into what caused some Note 7s to overheat and explode. The company promised to perform rigorous battery tests on all future products.
We've already heard a bunch of rumors about the Galaxy S8. The phone is said to have a nearly borderless screen (the teaser image above appears to confirm that rumor) and no home button. It will also have a new digital assistant based on Viv, a startup founded by the makers of Siri that Samsung bought last year. We've rounded up the rest of the Galaxy S8 rumors for you right here.
Samsung's Galaxy S8 announcement will take place at Lincoln Center in New York at 11 a.m. Eastern. Business Insider will be there with live coverage.

Warren Buffett's racked up a $1.6 billion gain in his Apple investment

Warren Buffett's racked up a $1.6 billion gain in his Apple investment

Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett yells Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett yells "Go big red!", the Nebraska Cornhuskers chant, prior to the Berkshire annual meeting in OmahaThomson Reuters
AAPL Apple Rg
 137.15 0.48 (+0.40 %)
DisclaimerGet real-time AAPL charts here »
NEW YORK, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Berkshire Hathaway Inc.'s gain on its investment in Apple Inc. stands at more than $1.6 billion after shares of the iPhone maker surged.
The stake of 61.2 million shares was acquired last year for $6.75 billion, an average of about $110.17 apiece, according to the annual report Saturday from Berkshire, which is led by billionaire chairman Warren Buffett.
The holding was valued at more than $8.3 billion as of Friday's $136.66 closing price.
Berkshire became one of the top 10 Apple investors in 2016, taking a stake of more than 9 million shares in the first quarter and then accelerating purchases in the last three months of the year.
The Apple investment appears to reflect much of the $12 billion of stock that Buffett said he had bought between the Nov. 8 Presidential election and the end of January.

Screen Shot 2017 02 25 at 9.15.12 AMMarkets Insider


(Reporting By Jennifer Ablan; Editing by David Gregorio)
Read the original article on Reuters. Copyright 2017. Follow Reuters on Twitter.

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