Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Donald Trump shocks world, wins presidential election in biggest upset in political history

Donald Trump shocks world, wins presidential election in biggest upset in political history

donald trumpDonald Trump in New York on election night. Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Donald Trump overcame all odds Wednesday, riding the wave of an unprecedented populist movement to become the 45th president-elect of the United States.
The Republican presidential nominee secured the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House. In doing so, he completed the biggest upset in modern political history, beating his Democratic challenger, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, as well as one of the most promising fields of Republican candidates in a generation.
During a speech in Manhattan early on Wednesday, the president-elect promised unity after a dark campaign.
"I pledge to every citizen of our land, that I will be a president for all Americans," Trump said. "And this is so important to me."
He added: "It is time for us to come together as one united people."
Clinton called Trump early Wednesday to concede after the brutal campaign.
"She congratulated us on our campaign," Trump said. "Hillary has fought very long and very hard, and we owe her a major debt of gratitude for her service."
The result came as a shock, to say the least. Markets plunged late Tuesday night as it became clear that Trump would have a better night than expected. Dow futures sunk by more than 750 points.
Almost every major forecasting aggregator, including FiveThirtyEight, RealClearPolitics, The New York Times, and HuffPost Pollster, heavily favored a Clinton victory in the lead-up to Tuesday's race.
The insurgent Republican businessman's candidacy was greeted as a sideshow by many media outlets and even other candidates when he declared on June 16, 2015. But Trump quickly gained popularity among Republican Party voters, many of whom were drawn to his populist message on issues like international trade and immigration, his unscripted speeches — which often included inflammatory rhetoric about identity-politics issues — and his promises to restore the US to previous points of perceived national glory.
Trump's victory Tuesday came amid a wave of support among working-class and blue-collar white voters in numerous battleground states, including Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin, and New Hampshire. The New York businessman had long claimed his nationalist pitch to voters could spur high levels of voter turnout that would help propel him to the White House.
The mood at Trump headquarters in Manhattan was joyous, as guests drank and shouted when Trump appeared to win Rust Belt states like Wisconsin and Michigan, once reliably Democratic states. Attendees, sporting suits and red "Make America Great Again" hats, appeared equally shocked at Trump's massive upset.
"We're actually going to do it," an attendee remarked as Trump appeared to pull ahead in key states.
Just a mile away on Manhattan's west side, the mood at Clinton's election-night party — to which she ultimately never attended — was also one of disbelief.

Dead silence at Hillary Clinton Javitz Center event in New York as key battleground state of North Carolina called for Trump. 

Just seen a woman leave Clinton rally at Javits Center in tears.  

In the women's restroom at the Javits Center complete strangers are asking each other how they're holding up
Many officials and top allies were shaken.
"This is the lowest moment in my life," a Clinton campaign official told Business Insider.
The Republican presidential nominee will take the oath of office in January with a mandate to fulfill a slate of lofty campaign promises. Trump has pledged several government actions that will certainly rock the US economy, including a renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement, a massive federal infrastructure plan, a moratorium on increasing regulations, and deportation of millions of immigrants illegally living in the US.
He has also promised national-security overhauls, including a potential return to enhanced-interrogation techniques, increasing bombing of ISIS, reevaluating the US relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, loosening background checks for purchasing firearms, and forcing Mexico to pay for a border wall on the US's southern border.
Trump will inherit a Congress that has remained plagued by gridlock throughout President Barack Obama's tenure. But he will come into office with Republicans controlling both the House of Representatives and the Senate.
David Anderson and Josh Barro contributed reporting.

Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Tesla is buying a German engineering company to automate factories

Tesla is buying a German engineering company to automate factories

Elon MuskTesla CEO Elon Musk.REUTERS/Beck Diefenbach
TSLA Tesla Motors
 196.92 3.74 (+1.90 %)
DisclaimerMore TSLA on Markets INSIDER »
On Tuesday, Tesla announced that it will acquire Grohmann Engineering, a German automated manufacturing company.
The terms of the deal, which is subject to German regulatory approval, weren't disclosed.
In a statement, Tesla described Grohmann as a "world-renowned engineering company in Prüm, Germany, which will become Tesla Grohmann Automation."
According to Tesla:
Accelerating a sustainable energy future is only possible with high-volume factories. They allow us to manufacture high-quality products with economies of scale, making them more affordable and accessible to the world. As the machine that builds the machine, our factories are so important that we believe they will ultimately deserve an order of magnitude more attention in engineering than what they produce. At very high production volumes, the factory becomes more of a product than the product itself. 
After increasing our output target to 500,000 cars per year by 2018, we began searching for the best engineering talent in automated manufacturing systems ...
Led by founder and CEO Klaus Grohmann, Grohmann Engineering is one of the world leaders in highly automated methods of manufacturing. This transaction will bring Mr. Grohmann’s leadership, a world-class team and unique expertise in-house. Moreover, it will serve as the initial base for Tesla Advanced Automation Germany headquarters, with other locations to follow. We expect to add over 1,000 advanced engineering and skilled technician jobs in Germany over the next two years.
Tesla shares were trading up slightly pre-market, to $194.
Improving its manufacturing capabilities has been a major issue for Tesla throughout 2016, as the carmaker looks to go from producing roughly 100,000 vehicles annually to building 500,000. 
Tesla is also bringing its massive battery factory in Nevada online, to produce the battery cells needed to serve that level of automotive manufacturing.
Germany has long been considered a manufacturing powerhouse, particularly in the automotive arena, with premier global carmakers including Mercedes, BMW, and Volkswagen.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk has both stressed that Tesla needs to improve its own manufacturing expertise and reinvent the entire manufacturing process. This is why Tesla used the "machine that builds the machine" language in its statement about the Grohmann acquisition.
Musk is aware that Tesla's actual production lags what the carmaker's California factory has achieved in the past, when it was jointly operated by General Motors and Toyota and had a capacity if 500,000 vehicles annually.
However, in a statement Tesla highlighted a 400% increase in production at its Fremont facility.
Tesla is also in the midst of $2.6-billion merger with SolarCity, including the assumption of billions more in SolarCity debt. Grohmann Engineering appears to be a firm that managed something in the ballpark of Euro 100 million in revenue in 2015, so that might provide us with some clues about how much Tesla might have paid for the company.
This is breaking news. We will update when we learn more.

2 out of the 3 most likely US election outcomes would lead to a stock market sell-off

2 out of the 3 most likely US election outcomes would lead to a stock market sell-off

Trump Clinton prediction monkeyA monkey wearing a T-shirt with the characters "King of prediction" holds a card that says "elected" between cardboard cutouts of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Reuters
There is plenty of uncertainty entering Tuesday night's US presidential election, with Hillary Clinton holding only a slim lead over Donald Trump in most national polls. Additionally, both houses of Congress are in play.
Lewis Alexander and the rest of the economists at Nomura attempted to parse out just how the market would react in the event of three different outcomes on election night.
Alexander's base case is a Clinton win and a Republican House of Representatives, which would be a slight upside to markets.
On the other hand, a clean sweep for Democrats would be a slight negative, while a Trump win and clean sweep for Republicans would lead to a more substantial risk-off selling.
Here are the three scenarios as Alexander sees them and what they mean for markets:
  1. Clinton victory, Republicans maintain House control: This would be in the Nomura economist's opinion a "non-event," as it is the most likely scenario and priced into markets, but cash could "come off the sidelines." The US dollar index would strengthen 0.5%, moving up the most against the Japanese yen and stocks would tick up in a "moderate relief rally." The Mexican peso would strengthen considerably against the dollar.
  2. Trump victory and Republican sweep: A Trump victory would lead to a "decent flight-to-quality move" into Treasurys and drive yields down by 23 to 35 basis points. The US dollar index would weaken by 1.3% and the Mexican peso would weaken considerably. Stocks would fall by 3 to 5% and continue to fall throughout the rest of the year.
  3. Clinton victory and Democratic sweep: The unlikely nature of this event and the possibility of some of Clinton's more extreme tax policies come to pass would be a slight negative. The US Dollar index would strengthen by 1.9%. Stocks would sell off by about 2 to 4%.
Here are the moves for major asset classes for each outcome in chart form:
Screen Shot 2016 11 07 at 8.41.03 AMNomura
Nomura noted that it could be a long time before the outcome of the election is known. A resounding Clinton win may be known as early as 11 p.m. But a closer race may not be called until the next morning after trading has begun in earnest.

China's trade performance remained weak in October

China's trade performance remained weak in October

Feature China / Barcroft Media / Barcroft Media via Getty Images
Chinese trade data missed to the downside in October with the value of exports and imports both undershooting expectations, at least in US dollar terms.
According to China’s Customs Bureau, the value of US dollar denominated exports declined by 7.7% from the levels of a year earlier, missing forecasts for a drop of 6.0%.
Though weak, the contraction was smaller than the 10.0% drop recorded in the 12 months to September.
In yuan-denominated terms, exports fell by 3.2% from a year earlier, a slightly narrower drop than the 5.6% level seen in September.
In the 12 months to October 2016, the Chinese yuan fell by around 7% against the US dollar, helping to explain the difference between the US dollar and yuan-denominated figures.
Julian Evans-Pritchard, China economist at Capital Economics, said that the improvement seen in October appears to reflect a recent strengthening in global demand.
“Markit’s global manufacturing PMI rose to a two-year high in October, with improvements all of China’s key trading partners including the US, EU and Japan,” he said immediately following the release of the trade report.
“Most countries have yet to publish trade data for October but the other early reporters, Korea and Taiwan, also posted a pick-up in export growth.”
On the other side of the ledger, the value of imports fell by 1.4% from October 2015 in US dollar terms, an improvement on the 1.9% drop seen in September but below forecasts for a decline of 1.0%.
In yuan-denominated terms, imports grew by 3.2% over the same period.
This likely reflects strength in industrial commodity prices, due in part to tight supply and ongoing demand from the China’s industrial and construction sectors.
In volume terms, imports of iron ore fell to 80.8 million tonnes, down from 93 million tonnes a month earlier, while crude imports dropped to 28.79 million tonnes from 33.06 million tonnes in September.
Coal imports, after receiving plenty of attention over the past month as prices for coking and thermal coal rocketed higher, dropped to 21.58 million tonnes, down from 24.44 million tonnes reported previously.
For the month, the trade surplus grew to $US49.06 billion, up from $US41.99 billion in September. It was slightly below the median economist forecast that was looking for an increase to $US51.7 billion.
While financial markets have, as yet, expressed a different view, Evans-Pritchard called the result “reassuring” after a weak result in September.
However, he doesn’t expect the nation’s trade performance to improve much further in the period ahead.
“With both global and domestic growth unlikely to accelerate much further, the medium-term outlook for Chinese trade remains challenging,” he says.
“The scope for a more significant recovery in global demand, and therefore Chinese exports, is probably limited given our view that the current pace of global growth is likely to be as good as it gets for the foreseeable future.
“The ongoing cyclical rebound in China’s economy should support imports for another quarter or two but is unlikely to last much longer given that the boost to growth from earlier policy easing is set to fade before long.”
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Monday, November 7, 2016

Clinton's odds of winning election spike on Betfair after FBI clears her again

Clinton's odds of winning election spike on Betfair after FBI clears her again

Hillary Clinton's odds of winning the presidency spiked on Betfair on Sunday after the FBI announced that it had reviewed newly discovered emails and cleared her again.
On British betting market Betfair, Clinton's odds of victory had tanked after the FBI reactivated its investigation. By the end of last week, with polls tightening, Clinton's odds had dropped to about 70%.
Over the past two days, however, as news of early voting in Nevada led some to conclude that Clinton would carry the state, Clinton's odds began to rise again. And Sunday afternoon, after the FBI announcement, they spiked over 80% again.
Clinton's odds have also recovered this weekend on another betting market, PredictWise, and now stand at 87%.
The latest poll averages, meanwhile, remain modestly in Clinton's favor, as do the odds of statisticians like FiveThirtyEight's Nate Silver.

The polls

In the latest national poll average from RealClearPolitics, Clinton has a 1.8-point lead in the two-way race:

The analysts

The data-based political analysts generally agree that Clinton is ahead. 
Using a state-by-state poll average, for example, FiveThirtyEight's Silver estimates that Hillary Clinton's odds of winning are now about 65%. These odds have dropped from about 85% before the FBI announced that it was reactivating the email investigation. (Poll averages are obviously lagging indicators and take time to reflect new news.)
How to read polls.

Algeria says confident OPEC members will stick to Algiers output deal

Algeria says confident OPEC members will stick to Algiers output deal

The OPEC flag and the OPEC logo are seen before a news conference in Vienna, Austria, October 24, 2016.   REUTERS/Leonhard Foeger The OPEC flag and the OPEC logo are seen before a news conference in Vienn Thomson Reuters
ALGIERS (Reuters) - Algeria's Energy Minister Nouredine Bouterfa said on Sunday he was confident OPEC members would stick to a deal made in Algiers in September to cut output, saying the group's technical committee was working on applying the deal.
"There will be no return on the Algiers agreement. Now, we are in application of this agreement. The high-level technical committee is working on it. The Algiers agreement has not been called into question," Bouterfa said, according to state news agency APS.
OPEC officials met in Vienna last month to work out the details of the Algiers plan to reduce oil production, but failed to reach agreement. The High Level Committee of experts will meet again in Vienna on Nov. 25 ahead of the next meeting of OPEC ministers on Nov. 30.
(Reporting by Hamid Ould Ahmed; writing by Patrick Markey; editing by David Clarke)
Read the original article on Reuters. Copyright 2016. Follow Reuters on Twitter.

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