Friday, September 16, 2016

RAY DALIO: The 75-year debt supercycle is coming to an end

RAY DALIO: The 75-year debt supercycle is coming to an end

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ray dalioRay Dalio.Larry Busacca/Getty
When Ray Dalio talks, people tend to listen.
Dalio is one of the most successful hedge fund managers of all time, founder of the $82 billion (£57.1 billion) Bridgewater Pure Alpha fund.
He's worried that one of the fixed constants of economics — the ability of central banks to stimulate economic growth through lowering the cost of debt — is coming to an end.
In an op-ed article for the Financial Times published this week, Dalio said (emphasis ours):
We are seven years into the expansion phase of the business/short-term debt cycle — which typically lasts about eight to 10 years — and near the end of the expansion phase of a long-term debt cycle, which typically lasts about 50 to 75 years.
What I am contending is that there are limits to spending growth financed by a combination of debt and money. When these limits are reached, it marks the end of the upward phase of the long-term debt cycle. In 1935, this scenario was dubbed "pushing on a string."
Dalio says risk premia — the return of risky assets such as bonds compared with cash — are at historically low levels.
This makes it harder for central banks to keep pushing up the prices of these assets with loose monetary policy, such as low interest rates and quantitative easing, because there is less incentive, or yield, to compensate investors for taking the risk on debt.
Here's Dalio again:
As a result, it is difficult to push the prices of these assets up and it is easy to have them fall. And when they fall, there is a negative impact on economic growth.
When this configuration exists — and it is also the case that debt and debt service costs are high in relation to income, so that debt levels cannot be increased without reducing spending — stimulating demand is more difficult, and restraining demand is easier, than is normally the case.
This debt fatigue could go some way to explaining why central banks are still locked into near-zero interest rates, seven years after the financial crisis that prompted their fall. 
But, worryingly, central banks would be powerless to stop the next financial crisis or recession with inflationary tactics in Dalio's scenario.
Dalio made the comments in the Financial Times in the week LCH Investments crowned him as the most successful hedge fund manager ever, dethroning George Soros.
Dalio's $82 billion (£57.1 billion) Bridgewater Pure Alpha fund generated $3.3 billion (£2.3 billion) in net gains for investors in 2015, according to the report. The fund, founded in 1975, has made $45 billion (£31.3 billion) in profit over its lifetime. Soros' Quantum Endowment Fund, which began in 1972, has made $42.8 billion (£29.8 billion).

Expedia picks banks for Trivago float: sources

Expedia picks banks for Trivago float: sources

The logo of global online travel brand Expedia is pictured at the International Tourism Trade Fair (ITB) in Berlin, Germany, March 9, 2016. REUTERS/Fabrizio BenschThe logo of global online travel brand Expedia is pictured at the International Tourism Trade Fair in Berlin Thomson Reuters
FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Online travel firm Expedia has picked advisors for the planned stock market listing of its Trivago travel search site, sources familiar with the matter said.
Expedia has tasked JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as global coordinators for the initial public offering (IPO) on the U.S.-based Nasdaq, which will likely take place this year or early 2017, the sources said.
Citi, Bank of America and Deutsche Bank are acting as bookrunners, the sources said.
The banks declined to comment or were not immediately available for comment. Expedia was not immediately available to comment.
Expedia Chief Executive Dara Khosrowshahi told investors in July that management and Trivago's founding team had agreed to an IPO to value Trivago as a stand-alone company.
It interviewed banks for potential roles in the IPO earlier this month.
The hotel search platform was founded in 2005 in Duesseldorf, where it remains headquartered, and is one of Germany's most successful start-ups of the past decade.
Expedia said in July that on a trailing 12-month basis Trivago had generated revenue of more than $660 million and that revenue had grown sixfold since it acquired Trivago in 2012.
(Reporting by Arno Schuetze; editing by David Clarke)
Read the original article on Reuters. Copyright 2016. Follow Reuters on Twitter.
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The iPhone 7 goes on sale today

The iPhone 7 goes on sale today

The iPhone 7 goes on sale around the world today, with Apple Stores opening early at 8am so that dedicated customers can get their hands on the device early. 
There was a small queue outside the Apple Store in Covent Garden in London:
Apple  $114.91
AAPL+/--0.47%-0.40
Disclaimer
Here's what it looked like when the doors opened at 8am:
Staff clapped as customers entered the store:
It was reported on Thursday that Apple wouldn't have any iPhone 7 Plus (the larger phone) units on sale in stores in launch day because of high demand for the product. Sure enough, staff in London were only accepting pre-order collections for any iPhone 7 models at launch.
Thanks to its time zone, Australia is the first place in the world where the iPhone 7 goes on sale. Here's what the reaction was like when people found out that they wouldn't be able to simply walk into the store and buy an iPhone 7 Plus:

More: Apple iPhone 7

Oracle whiffs on Q1 earnings

Oracle whiffs on Q1 earnings

Larry EllisonOracle executive chairman and CTO Larry EllisonOracle
Oracle  $39.18
ORCL+/--0.94%-2.30
Disclaimer
Oracle just reported its Q1, 2017 earnings and the news isn't great.
It reported:
  • Q1 EPS $0.55 vs estimates of $0.58, a miss.
  • It also reported revenues of $8.6 billion vs expectations of $8.7 billion, also a miss.
Stock is just a tad down in after-hours trading.
The bigger news is how well Oracle is doing with its cloud sales. That's been the company's major focus. It has said it wants to hit $10 billion in sales before Salesforce does. That's a tall order. Salesforce is on track to do $8.3 billion in revenue at the end of this fiscal year. 
Meanwhile, Oracle reported cloud revenues up 79%. That's healthy growth, but doesn't put Oracle on track to hit $10 billion before Salesforce. The company says it expects to do $2 billion this year in software as a service and platform as a service cloud revenues. It also has a new cloud that competes with Amazon's Web Services, but its the smallest of Oracle's cloud businesses.
REDWOOD SHORES, Calif., Sept. 15, 2016 /PRNewswire/ -- Oracle Corporation (ORCL) (NYSE: ORCL) today announced fiscal 2017 Q1 results. Total Revenues were $8.6 billion, up 2% in U.S. dollars and up 3% in constant currency. Cloud plus On-Premise Software Revenues were $6.8 billion, up 5% in U.S. dollars and up 6% in constant currency. Cloud software as a service (SaaS) and platform as a service (PaaS) revenues were $798 million, up 77% in U.S.dollars and up 79% in constant currency. Total Cloud Revenues, including infrastructure as a service (IaaS), were $969 million, up 59% in U.S. dollars and up 61% in constant currency. Operating Income was $2.6 billion and Operating Margin was 31%. Non-GAAP Operating Income was $3.4 billion and non-GAAP Operating Margin was 39%. Net Income was $1.8 billion while non-GAAP Net Income was $2.3 billion. Earnings Per Share was up 10% to $0.43, while non-GAAP Earnings Per Share was up 4% to $0.55. GAAP and non-GAAP Earnings Per Share was negatively impacted by three factors: 1 cent because of a higher tax rate due to more cloud sales being in the U.S, half of one cent because of borrowing, and 1 cent due to strengthening of the U.S. dollar. 
Short-term deferred revenues were $9.5 billion, up 4% in U.S. dollars and up 5% in constant currency compared with a year ago. Operating cash flow on a trailing twelve-month basis was $13.7 billion.
"Our Cloud business plus our On-Premise Software business grew 7% in constant currency in the first quarter, on a non-GAAP basis," said Oracle CEO,Safra Catz.  "The overall top-line growth of our two strategic businesses was driven by non-GAAP SaaS and PaaS revenue growing 82% in constant currency, substantially outperforming our guidance. As our SaaS and PaaS business continues its rapid growth, we expect its gross margins to climb from 62% this quarter toward our 80% target."
"This year we are on track to sell more than $2 billion of SaaS and PaaS annually recurring revenue," said Oracle CEO, Mark Hurd. "We believe this will be the second year in a row that Oracle has sold more SaaS and PaaS than any cloud services provider.  In the first quarter alone, we added more than 750 new SaaS customers including 344 new SaaS Fusion ERP customers – that's more ERP customers than Workday has sold in the history of their company."
"Next week at Oracle OpenWorld, we will introduce the second generation of our Infrastructure as a Service," said Larry Ellison, Oracle Chairman and CTO. "Our Generation2 IaaS delivers twice the compute, twice the memory, four times the storage and ten times more I/O at a 20% lower price than Amazon Web Services. IaaS represents a huge new cloud opportunity for Oracle to layer on top of our rapidly growing SaaS and PaaS businesses."
The Board of Directors also declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share of outstanding common stock. This dividend will be paid to stockholders of record as of the close of business on October 12, 2016, with a payment date of October 26, 2016.
More: Oracle

The world's largest hedge fund says it is 'bloated' and planning lay-offs

The world's largest hedge fund says it is 'bloated' and planning lay-offs

ray dalioBridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio. Thos Robinson/Getty
Bridgewater Associates — the world's largest hedge fund, with $150 billion in assets under management and 1,700 employees — says it is "bloated" and will "improve efficiencies" of its non-investment teams.
The firm made the announcement in a letter sent to clients on Thursday that was obtained by Business Insider.
Bridgewater's leadership team told its employees in a town hall Thursday that it would be laying off employees and overhauling its organizational structure and technologies in its Technology, Recruiting, Facilities, and Management Services team.
The team writes that this move is "coming at a time when our fundamentals are very strong" but that rapid growth of its non-investment units in the past five years has resulted in areas that "became bloated, inefficient, and bureaucratic."
"The new management leadership is now digging into the areas of inefficiency to improve them," the team writes. "Naturally that will involve some significant changes to people, processes, and technologies."
The leadership team notes that under normal conditions it would not be notifying its clients of this change but is doing so "because we have recently experienced distorted reporting in the media" and want to provide the "real story." This is a reference to earlier reports this year fromThe Wall Street Journal and The New York Times, which Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio publicly expressed issues with.
You can read the full letter below. It's signed by Dalio, co-CIO Bob Prince, co-CIO Greg Jensen, co-CEO Eileen Murray, president David McCormick, and co-CEO Jon Rubinstein.

"Dear —,
In a town hall meeting with employees today, we conveyed to the company that we will be conducting a renovation to improve efficiencies at Bridgewater, especially in the non-investment areas such as Technology, Recruiting, Facilities, and Management Services.
In the past, we made these sorts of internal changes privately and wouldn't have bothered telling you about them as you won't be directly affected. However, we decided to bring them to your attention because we have recently experienced distorted reporting in the media about what is happening at Bridgewater, so we want to provide you the real story.
To be clear, this renovation is coming at a time when our fundamentals are very strong: Our investment process is better than ever, our financial position is rock solid, our key employees who built the firm wouldn't want to work anywhere else, and our clients remain confident in us (as expressed in their collectively investing $22.5 billion in new money since 2015).  We are making these changes as a part of the ongoing process of constant improvement that has been the key to our success over the past 40 years.
Background 
As you know, about a decade ago, our assets under management were growing rapidly and Bridgewater's leadership faced a choice: to remain a boutique or become an institution. To institutionalize Bridgewater meant building out areas of the company that a boutique doesn't have or only modestly has, such as Security, Technology, HR, Facilities, Legal, etc. Building out those areas required us to hire a lot of people.
As a result, we grew dramatically. In 2003 Bridgewater had 150 employees; in 2011, when we began our management transition, we had 1,100; now we have 1,700. About 70% of this growth in headcount was in our non-investment areas. As one might expect, some of these areas became bloated, inefficient, and bureaucratic. As you know from dealing with us, we want to have pervasive excellence.   
To deal with this situation, earlier this year, we realigned our management team to help push through needed improvements.  These changes included Ray temporarily stepping back into active management of the firm as co-CEO, joining the existing senior management of Eileen Murray (co-CEO, who has been helping lead the company since 2009) and David McCormick (President, who has likewise been helping lead since 2009). We also brought in Jon Rubinstein as a co-CEO and made some other management changes. An added benefit of this shift was that it allowed Greg Jensen (who has been at Bridgewater 20 years) to devote his full attention to his role as co-CIO along with Ray and Bob Prince (who has been here for 30 years).  These shifts in management roles were consistent with our plan to figure out how to best transition the leadership of the company over 10 years. (We are now 5 years into that plan.)
The new management leadership is now digging into the areas of inefficiency to improve them. Naturally that will involve some significant changes to people, processes, and technologies. As mentioned, the vast majority of this renovation will be in the non-investment areas that have seen the most growth to make them more effective in supporting our investment and client service areas.
As always our evolutionary process will be imperfect, iterative, and transparent, and it will make us more efficient. 
What is of paramount importance is our sticking to the culture that has led to our excellent results. It is best summarized in the following sentence: We want meaningful work and meaningful relationships through radical truth and radical transparency.Transparently bringing problems to the surface and regarding them as intolerable might lead some people to wrongly conclude that we have more problems than organizations that don't transparently bring problems to the surface.  Our employees and our clients understand that this difference is essential to our success. It is also through this radical truth and transparency that they have learned to trust our integrity as well as our abilities.
As always, if you have any questions, let us know.
With appreciation for your understanding,
Ray, Bob, Greg, Eileen, David, and Jon"

Deutsche Bank is getting walloped

Deutsche Bank is getting walloped

Screen Shot 2016 09 15 at 6.10.53 PMLitigation reserves Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank shares slumped in after-hours trading in New York, falling more than 7%. 
The report, from Aruna Viswanatha, Jenny Strasburg and Eyk Henning, said the US Justice Department proposed a "preliminary" figure for Deutsche Bank to settle a series of mortgage-securities probes.
The number  is far beyond Deutsche Bank's own expectations, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Deutsche Bank said in its second quarter earnings that it had 5.5 billion euros ($6.2 billion) in litigation reserves set aside.
Deutsche Bank said it expects to settle the matter at a much lower amount.
The bank said in a statement:
Deutsche Bank AG (XETRA: DBKGn.DE / NYSE: DB) confirms that it has commenced negotiations with the Department of Justice in the United States (“DoJ”) with a view to seeking to settle civil claims that the DoJ may consider in connection with the bank’s issuance and underwriting of residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) and related securitization activities between 2005 and 2007.
The bank confirms market speculation of an opening position by the DoJ of USD 14 billion and that the DoJ has invited the bank as the next step to submit a counter proposal.

Deutsche Bank has no intent to settle these potential civil claims anywhere near the number cited. The negotiations are only just beginning. The bank expects that they will lead to an outcome similar to those of peer banks which have settled at materially lower amounts.

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