Barclays is already warning investors to take cover for the coming recession
Barclays is telling investors to prepare for a downturn.REUTERS/Eliseo Fernandez
Barclays on Monday downgraded forecasts for two UK-listed companies, blaming an expected "period of recession and uncertainty in the UK."
Analyst Andrew Ross and his team took the red pen to the online estate agent Rightmove and the price-comparison websiteMoneySupermarket.com.
The investment bank says it likes both companies' business models and believes they will win out in the long run. But both are too intertwined with the fabric of the UK economy to avoid taking a hit from the dip in the British economy that the bank expects to see as a result of the vote for a British exit from the European Union, or Brexit.
On Rightmove, analyst Ross and his team say:
"We remain structurally positive on Rightmove. But last week's referendum changes the story near term. Our economists now expect a period of recession and uncertainty in the UK, which is likely to mean reductions in house prices and transaction volumes. Rightmove does not have a one-for-one link to these two factors. But there will be an impact if new home developments are mothballed, estate agency branches start to close and price increases for the property portals become more difficult."
Barclays downgraded earnings forecasts, slashed its target price for shares to £33.0 from £37.38, and downgraded its stock rating to "underweight," meaning it expects Rightmove to perform below the wider market in the near future.
Rightmove shares are down over 6.8% at noon BST (7 a.m. ET):Investing.com
The move for MoneySupermarket.com is even worse. Barclays' Ross, also the analyst on the stock, writes:
"We have been positive on Moneysupermarket since initiating last year. But the layers of uncertainty in the story have been building in the last nine months, most notably from elevated competition. The outcome of the UK referendum and a forthcoming expected recession in the UK is now a new concern, and one uncertainty too many for us."
As with Rightmove, Barclays cuts forecasts for MoneySupermarket.com'snings, reduces its price guide to £2.60 a share from £2.75, and downgrades its outlook to equal weight, meaning it expects the price-comparison site to perform simply in-line with the sector average.
MoneySupermarket.com shares have crashed over 11% at 12:15 p.m. BST (7:15 a.m. ET) on Monday:Investing.com
The US Treasury and the Bank of England both warned ahead of the EU referendum that a vote to leave could tip the UK into recession, and multiple forecasting agencies and banks have pencilled in, at best, a hit to growth.
Many in the Leave camp dismissed this as simply scaremongering from "Project Fear." But Barclays' downgrades show how it may become a self-fulfilling prophecy as fear of a recession spooks investment.
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