The UK economy grew by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2016, according to the first estimate of GDP from the ONS. That number met the forecasts of economists, but was down from the 0.6% in the final quarter of 2015.
The Office for National Statistics released its preliminary estimates of GDP for the first quarter of 2016 on Wednesday and the quarterly number was bang in line with forecasts. On a year-by-year basis, GDP just beat expectations, growing by 2.1%, compared to 2% forecast, and in line with Q4's number.
Q1's figures represent a 13th consecutive quarter of positive growth for the UK economy, but represents the slowest single quarter growth since the end of 2012
Here's the chart showing the UK's long term growth trend:
UK GDP long term q1 2016ONS
There are fears that growth in the UK is being affected by the impending referendum on the UK's membership of the European Union as people brace for the potential impacts of staying in or leaving the EU. After today's data was released, chancellor George Osborne said:
It’s good news that Britain continues to grow, but there are warnings today that the threat of leaving the EU is weighing on our economy. Investments ‎and building are being delayed, and another group of international experts, the OECD, confirms British families would be worse off if we leave the EU.
However while Brexit fears are providing something of a drag on growth, Pantheon Macroeconomics argues that they cannot be entirely blamed.
Here's Pantheon's reaction to Wednesday's data (emphasis ours):
The slowdown in the first quarter likely marks the end of the U.K. economy’s outperformance relative to other G7 economies. Industrial production fell by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter, and construction output fell by 0.9%. Services output rose by 0.6%, but this increase partly reflected a strong starting point thanks to a 0.3% month-to-month rise in output in December. Output increased by just 0.1% month-to-month in both January and February, and the ONS assumes it rose by a modest 0.2% in March. Services sector growth therefore is on course to slow further in Q2.
Concerns about Brexit likely played a role in the Q1 slowdown and they probably will take a greater toll on GDP growth in Q2. But the downward trend in GDP growth since 2014 suggests that the E.U. referendum cannot be blamed for all of the economy’s ills. The fiscal squeeze has tightened this year after a pre-election pause, while the boost to growth in household spending from falling saving and rapid employment growth has run its course. Meanwhile, the real effective exchange rate remains uncompetitive and its recent fall likely won’t be sustained if the U.K. remains in the E.U.  As a result, hopes of a post-referendum rebound in growth look misplaced; we still expect GDP to rise by about 1.5% year-over-year in 2016.
The pound was little moved by the GDP numbers, and is currently up just 0.05% against the dollar to trade at $1.4590.