Here's what 14 Wall Street pros are predicting for the stock market in 2016
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It's 2016. And if you're invested in stocks, you're probably wondering where the market will head this year.
The bull market is in its sixth year. And with global economic growth slowing, earnings growth flattening, the Federal Reserve tightening monetary policy, commodities prices dreadfully low, and the dollar unusually high, there's a feeling that the bull run's end is near.
But most Wall Street's pros wouldn't say so.
Of 14 top equity strategists followed by Business Insider, not one sees the S&P 500 ending 2016 below 2,050.
Note, the S&P closed 2015 at 2,043.9.
One stubborn bull sees the index surging to 2,325.
We've rounded up the calls from the top firms on Wall Street. We also included their original2015 price targets, so you can see where the strategists stood a year ago compared to where the market is now. Many of these were revised as the year unfolded.
2,050 - Societe Generale
2016 year-end target: 2,050
2016 EPS forecast: N/A
2015 year-end target: 2,200
Comment: "The S&P 500 should absorb the Fed rate hike and finish the year flat. US dollar strengthening and high bond yields offset the strong US GDP growth already priced in. The presidential election in November 2016 could also be a source of volatility for US equities," said Alain Bokobza.
Source: Societe Generale
2,100 - BMO Capital Markets
2016 year-end target: 2,100
2016 EPS forecast: $130
2015 year-end target: 2,250
Comment: "We believe the S&P 500 will likely suffer its first calendar year loss since 2008," wrote Brian Belski. "However, we continue to believe the longer-term outlook for US stocks remains bright, and we remain confident with our call that US stocks are in the midst of a secular bull market."
Source: BMO Capital Markets
2,100 - Goldman Sachs
2016 year-end target: 2,100
2016 EPS forecast: $120
2015 year-end target: 2,100
Comment: "We forecast the S&P 500 index will tread water for a second consecutive year in 2016," wrote David Kostin. "Our year-end 2016 target of 2100 represents a 1% price gain from the current index level (2089), which itself is just 1% above the year-end 2014 level of 2059."
Source: Goldman Sachs
2,200 - Bank of America Merrill Lynch
2016 year-end target: 2,200
2016 EPS forecast: $120
2015 year-end target: 2,200
Comment: "We expect modest gains for US large cap stocks in 2016: the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months is low in our view, but valuations have normalized from previously low levels and narrowing returns are to be expected," wrote Savita Subramanian.
Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch
2,200 - Citi
2016 year-end target: 2,200
2016 EPS forecast: $132.50
2015 year-end target: 2,200
Comment: "Indeed, the combination of likely margin pressures by the second half of next year plus being further into the Fed rate cycle and the added uncertainty of a Presidential election may create the environment for Street restraint in 2H16," said Tobias M Levkovich.
Source: Citi
2,200 - Barclays
2016 year-end target: 2,200
2016 EPS forecast: 4% growth
2015 year-end target: 2,100
Comment: "Our macro narrative is simple, if obvious," Jonathan Glionna said. "We believe U.S. interest rates will go up leading to a stronger U.S. dollar. This should cause earnings per share growth and returns to remain subdued. We forecast 4% EPS growth and a 5% gain for the S&P 500."
Source: Barclays
2,275 - UBS
2016 year-end target: 2,275
2016 EPS forecast: $126
2015 year-end target: 2,225
Comment: "Barring an unforeseen external shock or a recession, if earnings continue to improve, 2016 should be a positive year for US equities," Julian Emanuel wrote. "Regardless, we continue to expect further volatility — which in essence means higher risk, both upside and downside."
Source: UBS
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