Quick take: Singapore seen entrenched in a trade recession till Q1 2016: ANZ

By

Angela Tanagelat@sph.com.sg

Singapore's non-oil domestic exports dipped 0.5 per cent in October from a year ago, after a 0.3 per cent rise in September. 

ST PHOTO

NOV 17, 20159:29 AM

SINGAPORE'S non-oil domestic exports dipped 0.5 per cent in October from a year ago, after a 0.3 per cent rise in September.

Trade promotion agency International Enterprise Singapore said this was due to a drop in electronic NODX which outweighed the increase in non-electronic NODX.

Here are some quick comments:

Weiwen Ng, economist, ASEAN and Pacific at ANZ Research:

"Singapore is entrenched in a trade recession that will likely endure till Q1 2016 owing to the declining import intensity in both the US and Chinese economies as well as dimmer growth outlook within ASEAN, notwithstanding a smaller-than-expected contraction in non-oil domestic exports."

"Specifically, Singapore's exports remains vulnerable to the moderation in China's growth, especially given China's share in Singapore's NODX has risen substantially following the Global Financial Crisis, even exceeding US' share."

"Looking ahead, I expect tech-related exports( i.e. electronics) to stabilise towards the end of the year, led by rising tech demand arising year-end product cycle for mobile devices. This will slow down stock-building & put a floor to the recent manufacturing slide for Singapore."