THE GLOBE'S ELECTION FORECAST
Conservative odds of winning up;NDP's drop to lowest so far
Our election forecast, based on recent polls and historical data, projects the likelihood that a given party would win the most seats, if an election were held today. Our algorithm was designed in consultation with political scientist Paul Fairie (read more about how it works). This page will be updated frequently with new polls. Scroll down to explore the data.
Last updated: Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2015
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If the election happened today, there is a ...
- 75%chance that the Conservatives get the most seats
- 4%chance that the NDP gets the most seats
- 22%chance that the Liberals get the most seats
- 20%chance that the Green party gets more than one seat
- 7%chance that all three parties win 100 seats or more
- 5%chance that any party gets a majority
Seats each party would win if the election were held today:
Updated Wednesday, Oct. 7, 2015
The coloured bar represents the range of probable seat totals.
The coloured bar represents the range of probable seat totals.
LATEST ANALYSIS
Conservative lead widens as NDP slide in polls
Paul Fairie
Special to The Globe and Mail
UPDATE OCT. 5:
Polls released in the last week seem to be in general agreement on the slide by the NDP, driven largely by a decline in their vote share in Quebec, which is what the new Globe Election Forecast reflects. However, the polls have disagreed about what else is happening in the national race.
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Election simulator
Our predictions use polling numbers and other data to calculate each party’s chance of winning a particular seat (read our methodology for more on how it works). We run simulated elections in each riding 1,000 times. The average of all of these simulations gives us our national forecast.
Try it for yourself below: When you hit “new simulation,” winning parties are assigned for each seat based on our projection of how likely they are to come out on top.
NEW SIMULATION
Con119 seats
NDP60 seats
Lib√ 143 seats
BQ15 seats
Grn1 seat
Oth0 seats
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The lede
With a margin of 24 seats, The Liberal Party win the election and will attempt to form a minority government. Support for The Liberal Party is particularly strong in Ontario where they take 57 per cent of the seats. The Conservative Party will likely form the official opposition.
BC
AB
SK
MB
ON
QC
NB
NS
PE
NL
YK
NT
NU
The trend over time
We are regularly updating our model as we get closer to election night. This chart shows our evolving forecast of the number of seats each party is likely to win.
Poll tracker
Our simulations are based on publicly available polls, including the ones below. You can examine the raw numbers and filter them based on methodology or which firms conducted the polls.
All polls conducted since January 1, 2015.
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CREDITS
- Predictive model by Paul Fairie
- Development and design by Jeremy Agius and Julia Wolfe
- Produced by Chris Hannay
- Edited by Matt Frehner
METHODOLOGY
Read our comprehenisve technical explanation covering the creation of this project.
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