Chances ECB extends QE programme fading: traders

The likelihood the European Central Bank prolongs its asset purchase programme beyond September 2016 has slipped to only even odds, according to the latest Reuters poll of money market traders. 

PHOTO: BLOOMBERG

OCT 12, 201510:41 PM

[BENGALURU] The likelihood the European Central Bank prolongs its asset purchase programme beyond September 2016 has slipped to only even odds, according to the latest Reuters poll of money market traders.

Just a month ago 17 of 21 traders said the ECB would extend its monthly 60 billion euro (US$68 billion) purchases beyond the planned completion date but Monday's poll gave a median 50 per cent chance it would be lengthened.

The swing comes despite official data showing euro area inflation was back at -0.1 per cent in September, the same as in March when the ECB began QE.

In the latest survey, traders assigned a 40 per cent chance the ECB increases the amount it spends on monthly purchases over the next six months. Two weeks ago, 11 of 21 traders said they expected the ECB to increase its monthly spend within the next six months.

The poll also predicted banks will borrow 70 billion euros at the ECB's weekly tender, slightly less than the 70.556 billion euros maturing from last week.

REUTERS