Canada might get a new leader for the first time in nearly 10 years, and it could mean big changes ahead
REUTERS/Mark BlinchJustin Trudeau, Stephen Harper, and Thomas Mulcair.
Canada's election is less than two weeks away, and it's still tough to call who will win.
The campaign has been a pretty tight three-way race between the incumbent Conservative Party under Stephen Harper, the Liberal Party under Justin Trudeau, and the New Democratic Party, or NDP, under Thomas Mulcair.
To win, a party simply needs to hold the most seats in parliament. To form a majority government, the party needs 170 seats.
The NDP has lost some popular support in recent polls, while the Liberal Party continues to climb in popularity and the Conservatives have held steady.
MacquarieThe election has been a tight 3-way race, but the Liberals and Conservatives are looking strongest now.
Harper has been prime minister since early 2006, and his Conservative Party has had a majority government since 2011. Now for the first time in years, it looks as if there could be a change.
If there is, it could have a big impact on areas as varied as the Canadian dollar, the country's trade policies, and Canada's decision whether to build the Keystone Pipeline.
It will most likely also mean a lot of uncertainty in the future.
"Current polling suggests there are very high odds (~80%) of a minority outcome, indicating that policy uncertainty could persist," wrote Macquarie's David Doyle in a recent note.
If there is a minority government, one that wins but falls short of 170 seats, it will most likely be a lot more left-leaning than Harper's majority government has been the past 9 1/2 years. Beyond that, it's hard to say what will happen.
Here's where the three leading parties stack up on a number of major issues, per Doyle's note:
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