Monday, November 20, 2017

One chart shows how terrible a decision it has been to bet against Amazon

One chart shows how terrible a decision it has been to bet against Amazon

Jeff BezosDrew Angerer / Getty Images
AMZN Amazon.Com
 1,126.66 -3.56 (-0.30 %)
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FB Facebook-A
 178.86 -0.08 (0.00 %)
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GOOGL Alphabet Rg-A
 1,034.38 -1.51 (-0.10 %)
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  • Thousands of traditional retail stores are closing down as more people shop online.
  • A chart from T. Rowe Price shows that investors who stuck with the sector are most likely badly burned.
  • Amazon's stock performance has far outpaced a basket of traditional retailers and the broader stock market.


Investors who stuck with traditional retail companies over the past few years were going against a ferocious tide.
More than 6,400 store closings have been announced this year alone by chains including RadioShack and Kmart. That's primarily because more people are shopping online — and especially at Amazon.
The chart below from T. Rowe Price illustrates just how much Amazon's performance has outpaced the broader stock market, and how badly a basket of traditional retailers has done.
"I still am struck by just how dramatic that impact is for investors," said Ken Allen, a portfolio manager of the $5 billion Science and Technology Fund at T. Rowe Price. "If you owned Amazon, you did great. If you owned a traditional retailer, you did horrible. If you did both, you did really really well."
Screen Shot 2017 11 15 at 10.06.01 AMT. Rowe Price
And that's just Amazon's retail unit. Its more profitable cloud-computing division is also helping the stock outperform incumbents like Cisco and IBM.
Though Amazon has captured nearly 50% of e-commerce, its share of the overall retail market is about 5%, Allen said. That's similar to Facebook and Alphabet, which dominate the digital advertising market but are surrounded by several stalwarts of the broader industry.
"All these companies are addressing enormous total addressable markets," Allen said. "That gives many of them continued runway for strong growth and potentially solid stock performance to grow into their valuations, which have appreciated quite significantly especially in the last year or so."

Coalition talks collapse in Germany, casting doubt on the country's political future

Coalition talks collapse in Germany, casting doubt on the country's political future

angela merkelAngela Merkel. Christian Hartmann/Reuters
  • Talks about forming a three-party coalition government in Germany dissolved after the free-market liberal Free Democratic Party pulled out on Sunday.
  • Without the FDP, Chancellor Angela Merkel may be forced to form a minority coalition or hold fresh elections just months after the latest elections.
  • New elections could affect the Brexit negotiations.


Talks about forming a three-party coalition government in Germany dissolved after the free-market liberal Free Democratic Party pulled out on Sunday.
The FDP's leader, Christian Lindner, said there was no "basis of trust" with Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union bloc and the left-leaning Greens, the BBC reported.
"Today there was no progress but rather there were setbacks because targeted compromises were questioned," Lindner said. "It is better not to rule than to rule falsely. Goodbye!" he added.
If the FDP refuses to join the coalition, Merkel may be forced to form a minority coalition or hold fresh elections just months after the latest elections.
Germany voted to form a new government in September, and Merkel was elected for a fourth term as chancellor.
Merkel's conservative bloc won 32.5% of the vote, according to Reuters, making it the largest parliamentary group.
The elections also brought a far-right party, the Alternative for Germany, into Germany's parliament for the first time since the 1960s. All other parties elected to the Bundestag refuse to work with the AfD, Reuters reported, because of its harsh stance on refugees and migrants.

New elections could affect Brexit talks

The second-largest party in parliament, the center-left Social Democrats, ruled out returning to a coalition government with Merkel's conservative bloc.
The prospect of renewed elections could affect Brexit. The SDP's leader, Martin Schulz, said Britain should be punished for leaving the European Union.
If new elections turn in Schulz's favor, Brexit negotiations may be even tougher. Earlier this year, as president of the European Parliament, Schulz accused the former UK Prime Minister David Cameron of "taking a whole continent hostage for a party internal struggle" and threatened "the hardest Brexit possible," according to The Telegraph.
Alexandra Ma contributed to this report.

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