Tuesday, October 3, 2017

ExxonMobil has been dethroned as the world's top energy company

ExxonMobil has been dethroned as the world's top energy company

exxonmobilReuters
Gazprom dethroned ExxonMobil as the top energy company in the world, according to the 2017 S&P Global Platts Top 250 Global Energy Company Rankings. The rankings measure the financial performance of energy firms on four key metrics: asset worth, revenues, profits, and return on invested capital. The list only includes companies that have assets greater than $5.5 billion.
For 12 years, ExxonMobil was second to none. But that changed this year – Exxon was ejected from the top spot, and fell all the way to ninth place.
Gazprom’s surge reflects its state ownership, its captured market in Europe for its natural gas, as well as the fall of some of its peers. But the Russian gas giant’s ability to weather sanctions, regulatory threats from the EU, low oil and gas prices, and the rise of competition from new supplies of LNG is impressive.
The reshuffling was the result of some dramatic changes underway in the energy industry, according to S&P Global Platts. Typically, the companies topping the list have been integrated oil companies. But this year, utilities and pipeline companies moved up the list. That, combined with the stumble by Exxon, marks a “changing of the guard, the most profound in the Rankings history,” S&P Global Platts said in a press release.
Still, to some degree, the shakeup is not surprising. After all, oil prices have languished for a third year, weighing on the oil industry. That doesn’t necessarily affect utilities and pipeline companies. While oil producers have stumbled, revenues for regulated utilities are pretty stable, and the same is true for pipeline companies that typically ink long-term deals with relatively inflexible pricing.
“European utilities and North American pipeline operators got a boost from sticking to what they know best and shying away from more risky enterprises and territories,” Harry Weber, senior natural gas writer of S&P Global Platts. “Regulated utilities, in particular, have an advantage because their revenues are largely defined and consistent, and are not as susceptible to swings in oil and gas prices.” 
The natural gas sector in the United States has been a particularly promising place for a lot of companies. The surge in gas production has led to a significant need for new pipeline capacity. A raft of new natural gas-fired power plants also ensures the demand for gas will be there. Pipeline companies have stepped up to meet the need. “These trends are expected to continue into the next decade as billions of dollars of new investment pour into pipeline projects in the U.S., Canada and Mexico,” S&P wrote in its report.
Some oil companies that avoided a slide were those that made more investments in pipelines. S&P singled out French oil giant Total SA, which jumped from 12th to 10th in the rankings – returning to the top 10 after a two-year absence – owing to some notable investments in U.S. natural gas.
S&P pointed out a few companies that made the largest jump up in the rankings. German utility E.ON leapt from 114th to 2nd and British utility Centrica jumped from 156th to 15th, for example, highlighting the strong performance from utilities.
E.ON was a rather interesting case because it had been battered in the past by the radical transformation underway in Germany’s electricity industry. But last year, E.ON spun off its fossil fuel generating assets into a separate company, with the remaining entity focusing on renewables, energy networks and customer solutions. E.ON’s revenue plunged from 7th to 28th – because it is now a smaller company – but its return on invested capital surged to 35 percent, which meant the Germany utility offered the highest ROIC on the list, a long way from the 246th place it recorded in 2015.
S&P said that Exxon could rebound in the rankings in the future due to its sizable investments in the Permian basin. The oil major spend $6.6 billion on Permian acreage in January, and just announced another significant Permian acquisition last week. Higher oil production will help, but higher natural gas output will also aid the oil major’s cause. As the region’s pipeline infrastructure expands, more gas will flow to the Gulf Coast as well as Mexico. 
It is important to note the rankings encompass four financial metrics, so dominance in one category does not necessarily mean leading overall. For example, Royal Dutch Shell ranks #1 in assets at $411 billion. But Shell only ranks 8th in profits at $4.5 billion, and well outside of the top 10 in ROIC, giving the Anglo-Dutch oil major an overall ranking of just 23rd
sp1Oilprice.com
Read the original article on OilPrice.com. Copyright 2017.

Stocks are flashing a major sell signal

Stocks are flashing a major sell signal

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Sentiment on the US stock market may be too positive for its own good.
Wall Street analysts showed "extreme bullishness" on stocks at the end of September, based on a monthly survey conducted by Bank of America Merrill Lynch. As such, the firm's proprietary "Sell Side Indicator" — which monitors investor exuberance — is now nearly two standard deviations above its four-year average.
BAML points out that it's historically been a bearish signal when Wall Street gets extremely bullish. Described by the firm as a "reliable contrarian indicator," the sell-side gauge helps bolster the long-standing argument from stock market pessimists that US stocks are overheating.
On prior occasions in which the indicator has been one standard deviation above the four-year rolling average, the S&P 500 has returned less than 1% over the following 12 months, and it has actually declined almost half of the time.
The chart shows that the last time the BAML indicator (blue line) has been that far above its four-year rolling average (red line) was the financial crisis.
10 2 17 sell side indicator COTDExtreme Wall Street bullishness has historically been a bearish signal, and a recent reading shows just that.Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research
"Relative to the last four years, sentiment levels are now at relative levels that have historically indicated weak returns over the next 12 months," a group of BAML equity and quantitative strategists led by Savita Subramanian wrote in a client note. "It has historically been a bullish signal when Wall Street was extremely bearish, and vice versa."
Screen Shot 2017 10 02 at 9.24.07 AMReturn statistics based on a four-year history of the BAML Sell Side Indicator.Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research
BAML's contrarian indicator is certainly living up to its name, bucking bullish signs that have suggested the 8-1/2-year equity bull market will stay alive and well.
Take, for instance, the S&P 500's recent resilience in the face of weakness in tech stocks — previously viewed as an indispensable pillar of continued stock gains. Instead of selling off, the benchmark index hit a series of new highs as investors rotated into previously unfavored energy and telecom stocks.
More than anything, these conflicting signals show that no one truly knows what's ahead for the US stock market. There's ample evidence on either side of the bull/bear debate. So in the meantime, the best possible advice is probably just to keep buying, but stay hedged against an unexpected shock.

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