Friday, February 10, 2017

Oil rises on signs of widespread OPEC deal compliance


Oil rises on signs of widespread OPEC deal compliance


By Karolin Schaps | LONDON
Oil prices rose about $1 on Friday after reports that OPEC members delivered more than 90 percent of the output cuts they pledged in a landmark deal that came into force in January.
Supply from the 11 OPEC members with production targets under the deal fell to 29.921 million barrels per day, according to the average assessments of the six secondary sources OPEC uses to monitor output, or a 92 percent compliance.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) - one of OPEC's six sources - said the cuts in January equated to 90 percent of the agreed reductions in output, far higher than the initial 60 percent compliance with a 2009 OPEC deal.
"Some producers, notably Saudi Arabia, (are) appearing to cut by more than required," the agency said in a report.
Global benchmark Brent crude LCOc1 was up $1.09 at $56.72 a barrel by 1400 GMT. It touched a session high of $56.73 a barrel earlier in the session.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 traded up 92 cents at $53.92 a barrel.
The IEA, which advises industrial nations on energy policy, said if current compliance levels are maintained, the global oil stocks overhang that has weighed on prices should fall by about 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the next six months.
The agency also raised global oil demand growth expectations for 2017 to 1.4 million bpd, up 100,000 bpd from its previous estimate.
Nevertheless, producers will likely have to extend the production cuts beyond six months if they want to achieve their goal of balancing the oil market.
Weekly U.S. rig count data will be published later on Friday by Baker Hughes, indicating whether drillers are continuing to ramp up activity.
Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB, said he expected 198 new U.S. oil rigs to come into action in 2017, with 51 added already this year.
"We calculate that one extra rig added today will lead to a stream of new wells which cumulatively will produce 5.3 million barrels to the end of 2019," he said.
(Additional reporting by Henning Gloystein in Singapore; editing by David Goodman and David Clarke)

REPORT: Trump border 'wall' to cost $21.6 billion, take over 3 years to build

REPORT: Trump border 'wall' to cost $21.6 billion, take over 3 years to build

US-Mexico border wallA Border Patrol vehicle sits along the US-Mexico border wall on January 25, 2017 in San Ysidro, California. Sandy Huffaker/Getty Images
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Donald Trump’s “wall” along the US-Mexico border would be a series of fences and walls that would cost as much as $21.6 billion, and take more than three years to construct, based on a US Department of Homeland Security internal report seen by Reuters on Thursday.
The report’s estimated price-tag is much higher than a $12-billion figure cited by Trump in his campaign and estimates as high as $15 billion from Republican House Speaker Paul Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.
The report is expected to be presented to Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary John Kelly in coming days, although the administration will not necessarily take actions it recommends.
The plan lays out what it would take to seal the border in three phases of construction of fences and walls covering just over 1,250 miles (2,000 km) by the end of 2020.
With 654 miles (1,046 km) of the border already fortified, the new construction would extend almost the length of the entire border.
Many cost estimates and timelines have been floated since Trump campaigned on the promise of building a wall. The report seen by Reuters is the work of a group commissioned by Kelly as a final step before moving forward with requesting US taxpayer funds from Congress and getting started on construction.
A DHS spokeswoman said the department does "not comment on or confirm the potential existence of pre-decisional, deliberative documents."
A White House spokeswoman said it would be “premature” to comment on a report that has not officially been presented to the president.
The report said the first phase would be the smallest, targeting sections covering 26 miles (42 km) near San Diego, California; El Paso, Texas; and in Texas's Rio Grande Valley.
The report assumes DHS would get funding from Congress by April or May, giving the department sufficient time to secure contractors and begin construction by September. Trump has said Congress should fund the wall upfront, but that Mexico will reimburse US taxpayers. Mexico has said it will not pay.
Several US congressional delegations are visiting the border this month to assess funding needs, according to several people familiar with the travel plans.
The report shows the US government has begun seeking waivers to address environmental laws on building in some areas. It also shows the government has begun working with existing contractors and planning steel purchases for the project.
Trump told law enforcement officials on Wednesday, "The wall is getting designed right now."
The report accounted for the time and cost of acquiring private land, one reason for its steep price increase compared to estimates from Trump and members of Congress.
Bernstein Research, an investment research group that tracks material costs, has said that uncertainties around the project could drive its cost up to as much as $25 billion.
The second phase of construction proposed in the report would cover 151 miles (242 km) of border in and around the Rio Grande Valley; Laredo, Texas; Tucson, Arizona; El Paso, Texas and Big Bend, Texas. The third phase would cover an unspecified 1,080 miles (1,728 km), essentially sealing off the entire US-Mexico border. 
back turned mexico wallJorge Duenes/Reuters

Barriers to construction

The report lays out costs to cover the border with barriers, but funding constraints and legal battles are likely to place limits on those plans.
It also does not account for major physical barriers, like mountains, in areas where it would not be feasible to build.
A source familiar with the plans said DHS may have to go to court to seek eminent domain in order to acquire some of the private land needed to cover the final and most ambitious phase.
The first phase, estimated to cost only $360 million, could be a relatively easy way for Trump to satisfy supporters eager to see him make good on his campaign promises to limit illegal migration. But the rest of the construction will be markedly more expensive, covering a much larger stretch of land, much of it privately owned or inaccessible by road.
In addition to seeking eminent domain and environmental waivers, the US government would also have to meet the requirements of the International Boundary and Water Commission, a US-Mexico pact over shared waters. The report estimated that agreement alone could bring the cost from $11 million per mile to $15 million per mile in one area. 
(Reporting by Julia Edwards Ainsley; Editing by Kevin Drawbaugh and Alistair Bell)
Read the original article on Reuters. Copyright 2017. Follow Reuters on Twitter.
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China's January trade data blew away expectations

China's January trade data blew away expectations

ExplosionsDisney/ Lucasfilm
Chinese trade data easily breezed past expectations in December, helping to fuel optimism over the state of the global economy.
But, while there’s clear evidence that global economic activity is improving, the strength was helped by a low base effect stemming from low commodity prices in January 2016.
Seasonal distortions due to the timing of Lunar New Year holidays, often seen in data at this time of the year, may have also been a factor.
However, despite those doubts, the headline figures were nothing short of spectacular. There was some enormous year-on-year growth reported for both exports and imports, leading to the trade surplus swelling to the highest level in a year.
China’s Customs Bureau said the value of exports grew by 7.9% in US-denominated terms from a year earlier, easily surpassing economist forecasts for an increase of 3.3%.
It was the fastest year-on-year percentage increase since March 2016.
Reflective of weakness in the Chinese yuan over the same period, exports rose by 15.9% in local currency terms.
China trade balance Jan 2017via Business Insider Australia
On the other side of the ledger, the value of imports soared even more than exports, surging 16.7% in US dollar terms from January 2105.
That marked the fastest year-on-year increase in imports since April 2013, assisted by firm demand and also soaring commodity prices over the past year.
Demonstrating that firm demand, volumes of iron ore and crude oil hit the second and third-highest levels on record in January.
In yuan-denominated terms, the value of imports increased by a staggering 25.2%.
With the dollar value of exports increasing faster than imports, the trade surplus soared to $US51.35 billion, above the $US40.71 billion figure of December and forecasts for an increase to $US47.9 billion.
It was the highest since January 2016, adding to the view that seasonality may have played a part in the stellar result.
While we’re unlikely to get clarification on the true performance of imports and exports until early April, when the March trade data is released (meaning February’s figures will also be clouded by Lunar New Year distortions), it’s clear from other recent data out of China that the positive momentum the economy in late 2016 has extended into early 2017.
And, with data from other major economies also on the improve, there’s clear signs that the global economic recovery is gathering pace.
The global economy is certainly in better shape than where it was this time a year ago. China has played a large part in that recovery, helped by the government opening the fiscal taps to spur on economic activity.
It’s clearly helped.
The question now is whether Chinese policymakers will continue to pump-prime the economy for the remainder of the year, particularly given concerns over financial stability given the recovery over the past year was fueled by a sharp increase in credit growth.
Markets will get further clarification on this next week when the People’s Bank of China releases new loan growth for January.
A mammoth increase in bank lending of 2.3 trillion yuan is expected, a figure that would be the largest monthly total on record should it be correct.
If that outcome does arrive, it will leave little doubt that policymakers are continuing favour short-term growth over longer-term financial risks.
Read the original article on Business Insider Australia. Copyright 2017. Follow Business Insider Australia on Twitter.

Trump vows to honor 'One China' policy in first phone call as president with China's Xi

Trump vows to honor 'One China' policy in first phone call as president with China's Xi

phone call Donald TrumpMark Wilson/Getty Images
US President Donald Trump looked to patch up relations with China by promising to honor the "One China" agreement between the world's two biggest economies on his first phone call as president with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
A press release from the White House said that during an "extremely cordial" and "lengthy" conversation on Thursday evening, the "two leaders discussed numerous topics and that Trump agreed, at the request of President Xi, to honor our 'one China' policy."
The release also said the two leaders extended invitations to meet in their respective countries and representatives of each country "will engage in discussions and negotiations on various issues of mutual interest."
Trump rattled the US's relationship with China after his inauguration by breaking with decades of US policy and taking a call from Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen in December.
The "One China" policy, to which the US and China agreed in 1972, holds that China and Taiwan belong to a single country. Many on the island of Taiwan, officially known as the Republic of China, see themselves as the legitimate government-in-exile of all of China after the Communist Party took control of the mainland.
For that reason, recognition of Taiwan internationally poses an existential threat to China. China has warned Trump that the "One China" policy between the US and China was nonnegotiable.
The White House said Wednesday that Trump had provided Xi with a letter to correspond with Xi's written well wishes on Trump's inauguration. In the letter, the White House said, Trump told Xi he "looks forward to working with President Xi to develop a constructive relationship that benefits both the United States and China."

Wednesday, February 8, 2017

The Fintech Files: Who Will Dominate Mobile Payments?

The Fintech Files: Who Will Dominate Mobile Payments?

Categories: Drivers of ValueFuture States
The Fintech Files: Who Will Dominate Mobile Payments?
Mobile payment may not be the hottest area in fintech, but the largest fintech company by far is a payment company.
Of all the new fintech uses, mobile payment is arguably the one in which traditional financial institutions have lost the most share. For example, Alipay and WeChat Pay already have millions of users although they have only been in the space a short time. Together, they processed 88% of all mobile payment transactions in China in 2015.
For those not familiar, the payment business involves several independent parties. A basic payment transaction begins with a consumer using her card to pay for a product or service at a merchant. The payment then gets transferred from the issuing bank — the bank that issued the card to the consumer — to the merchant’s account at the acquiring bank via the card’s payment network.
PayPal and its peers have radically changed these dynamics. Alibaba and Tencent, the tech giants behind Alipay and WeChat Pay, respectively, have gone even further and started their own banks. The threat to traditional banking institutions is more real than ever.
Who will dominate mobile payments on a global scale? With that question in mind, I spoke with Ken Chew, managing director, DBS Bank’s consumer finance business, including payments.
Larry Cao, CFA: How essential is payment for banks?
Ken Chew: I think payment is probably on top of the whole food chain. Banks [use] current or savings accounts for their funding purposes. Also, there is a whole value chain in terms of payment, so they make money as well. Payment also generates a lot of data for banks to understand their customers.
Is payment a low-margin business for banks so they have less interest in defending it?
Payment involves credit card payment, debit card payment, fund transfer, and cross-border transfer. When you look at global banks, it still contributes very substantially to their overall revenue. Within the banking communities, when you look at payment, credit card is part of the payment ecosystem. When you look at the fees and interest income of credit cards, of course the interest income is more substantial than the fees, and it varies from market to market. For instance, Europe is more about debit payment. The interest income is not substantial. But when you look at markets like the US and Australia, the interest income portion is quite substantial.
How have fintech companies taken the mobile payment share from the traditional financial institutions?
When you look at payment, basically it is a fund transfer from the customer to the merchant. This is what Visa and MasterCard have built to facilitate. Because the funds sit with the bank, they facilitate the payment. Now come Alipay and WeChat Pay, and they want to disintermediate the association point. For instance, they want to create a new ecosystem for payment, but basically what they want to do is still facilitate payment between customers and merchants. However, technology firms, like Apple Pay, don’t sign up with merchants. The merchants still belong to us. Apple Pay is just one of our partners, but they don’t disintermediate us. They just provide a different form and user experience for customers.
Previously, banks had the entire payment area, but now they only have a slice of the pie, right?
They do have a slice of the pie, but from our perspective, we are growing our pie as well. Of course, Alipay and WeChat Wallet are trying to create a new ecosystem. I don’t think they have taken a lot of market share, because their value proposition is to charge merchants a lower fee. The other thing is that over the years, banks have built a loyalty system. For example, customers use our cards and they earn our rewards.
Is this similar to PayPal in the US? It hasn’t been a huge challenge to MasterCard and Visa, but it is arguably the largest finTech company.
There’s a lot of noise, but the way I look at it, fintech is more about collaborating with the banks rather than disrupting them. Especially in the more mature markets.
What gap do you think Alipay and Tencent were filling, so they were able to gain business so quickly in China?
China is unique in my view. The reason why Alipay and Tencent can scale up so fast is that they have a customer base, whereas other fintech companies don’t. So, when you have a customer base, driving the adoption becomes so much faster.
In the case of China, these technology firms have already grown so big, they probably don’t have an incentive to really collaborate on a larger scale with any financial institutions, right?
If you look at Alipay, they are a payment company, but it expands beyond ecommerce to offer financial services. When you look at especially WeChat Wallet, they do work with financial institutions. They do still need a funding source. Their customers still need a bank account to fund their wallet, so there’s still collaboration. WeChat used to be a messaging company, but they extend beyond that, so they have ecommerce within their social media as well. Now they are in payments, they are in wealth management, and they have a WeBank platform for banks as well.
Do you see other fintech areas where financial institutions have a strong edge or the other way around?
Banks have started to realize the threats from fintech, so many of us have started to build those capabilities. For example, we launched a digital bank in India. Basically we utilize the voice technology [by a company that] previously built Siri to do our customer service in India.
Susanna Tai contributed to this article. 
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All posts are the opinion of the author. As such, they should not be construed as investment advice, nor do the opinions expressed necessarily reflect the views of CFA Institute or the author’s employer.

Crude oil posts massive inventory build

Crude oil posts massive inventory build

It hasn’t been a good start to February for crude prices, especially in recent days.
Weighed down by a resurgent US dollar, concerns about a ramping up in US shale production and massive build in US crude inventories reported by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday, front-month WTI futures have been hammered, falling to the lowest level seen since January 20.
From the high of $54.34 per barrel on February 2, it’s now lost close to 5%.
Crude wti feb 9 2017Front-Month WTI Futures Hourly Chart. Thomson Reuters via Business Insider Australia
After being undermined by a rebound in the US dollar and intensified concerns over a rebound in US shale oil production, the latest leg lower was sparked by a mammoth build in US crude inventories last week.
The API reported that inventories increased by a massive 14.227 million barrels — one of the largest weekly builds on record — which was significantly higher than the build of 2.38 million expected by markets.
The enormous build comes just a day before the release of separate data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on inventory levels on Wednesday.
If the API data is confirmed by the EIA, it will be the largest build since October last year, according to Reuters.
Front-month WTI futures currently trade at $51.70 a barrel.
Read the original article on Business Insider Australia. Copyright 2017. Follow Business Insider Australia on Twitter.

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