Thursday, April 7, 2016

JAMIE DIMON: The US has 'serious issues that we need to address'

JAMIE DIMON: The US has 'serious issues that we need to address'

Jamie Dimon is worried about the future of the US.
In the company's annual letter, the JPMorgan CEO expressed concern over "long-term issues" facing the country and said that they could cause a crisis in the future.
"We have spoken many times about the extraordinarily positive and resilient American economy," wrote Dimon. "Today, it is growing stronger, and it is far better than you hear in the current political discourse. But we have serious issues that we need to address — even the United States does not have a divine right to success."
In a portion of the letter entitled "Good Public Policy Is Critically Important," Dimon highlighted major failures of public policy, including East Germany, Detroit, and Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
"Yes, bad public policy, and I'm not looking at this in a partisan way, creates risk for the economies of the world and the living standards of the people on this planet — and, therefore, for the future of JPMorgan Chase — more so than credit or market risks," said Dimon.
After highlighting failures of public policy, Dimon then enumerated his concerns facing the US going forward.
"I won't go into a lot of detail but will list only some key concerns: the long-term fiscal and tax issues (driven mostly by healthcare and Social Security costs, as well as complex and poorly designed corporate and individual taxes), immigration, education (especially in inner city schools) and the need for good, longterm infrastructure plans," he wrote.
He then touched on the dangers of policy inaction by the US. Here's Dimon (emphasis added):
I do not believe that these issues will cause a crisis in the next five to 10 years, and, unfortunately, this may lull us into a false sense of security. But after 10 years, it will become clear that action will need to be taken. The problem is not that the US economy won't be able to take care of its citizens — it is that taking away benefits, creating intergenerational warfare and scapegoating will make for very difficult and bad politics. This is a tragedy that we can see coming. Early action would be relatively painless.
This is not totally the government's fault, said Dimon.
"All of us, as US citizens" bear responsibility and must pitch in to deal with the problems, he said.
Dimon said that he has had the opportunity to meet many world leaders in his job and has learned that "breeding mistrust and misunderstanding makes the political environment far worse."
He then lists some dos and don'ts for policymakers and people trying to address the issues he highlighted. A few of his tips included:
  • DON'T paint everything as black and white: "Most decisions are not binary, and there are usually better answers waiting to be found if you do the analysis and involve the right people."
  • DON'T attack an entire class or society of people: "This is always wrong and just another form of prejudice. One of the greatest men in America's history, President Abraham Lincoln, never drew straw men, never scapegoated and never denigrated any class of society — even though he probably had more reason to do so than many."
  • DO compromise: "Also, you can compromise without violating your principles, but it is nearly impossible to compromise when you turn principles into ideology."
  • DO reconsider existing policy and institutions: "Analyze what is working and what is not working, and then figure out — together — how we can make it better."

China may finally have stopped running out of money

China may finally have stopped running out of money

panda china strongREUTERS/Guang NiuYingying, a 17-year-old panda, born in a zoo in the southwestern province of Sichuan, lifts weights during a performance at the Chinese Acrobats Arts Festival in Beijing late October 20, 2001. Yingying is said to be the only member of the endangered species in the world able to dunk a basketball, go down a slide and drive a car.
Chinese foreign exchange reservesfinally stopped its slide in March, increasing by $10 billion to $3.212 trillion.
China's FX reserves peaked at about $4 trillion (£2.7 trillion) in the middle of 2014, but since then the country has burned through about $800 billion of its foreign cash.
Reserves had fallen for four consecutive months until March, and have dropped more than $600 billion in the last year alone, but that slide may be finally be over, even though the rise is pretty tiny, representing growth of just 0.3%.
The number was a beat on the expectations of economists, who had predicted a further fall — $6 billion — from February's number.
China's FX reserves have been the subject of lots of worry in recent years. In February, notoriously pessimistic economist Albert Edwards warned that the country is running out of money and will have to float the renminbi as a free currency.

Wednesday, April 6, 2016

Crude oil futures jump on hopes of an output freeze

Crude oil futures jump on hopes of an output freeze

oilAtef Hassan/Reuters
SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Crude oil futures jumped on Wednesday, lifted by growing expectations that exporters will agree to freeze their output amid global oversupply, although Iran's plans to boost production are seen as capping bigger price gains.
The Kuwaiti governor for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Nawal Al-Fuzaia, said on Tuesday that there were "positive indications an agreement will be reached" during a producer meeting scheduled for April 17 in Qatar.
Front month U.S. crude futures jumped a dollar, or 2.8 percent, to $36.89 per barrel at 0240 GMT. International Brent futures rose 1.8 percent at $38.55 a barrel.
"Oil gained some momentum. The comment by the Kuwait OPEC governor provided some support to prices," ANZ bank said, but warned that investors would likely remain cautious ahead of the April 17 meeting.
An initial output freeze agreed in February has helped oil prices rise to almost $38 a barrel from a 12-year low close to $27 plumbed earlier this year.
However, prices have fallen in recent days on doubts that a wider deal will be reached, largely because Iran has so far said it has no intention of slowing its production after crippling sanctions against it were lifted in January.
Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said the country's crude output would reach 4 million barrels per day (bpd) by March 2017, state television reported on Wednesday, with plans to export 2.25 million bpd of those supplies.
That would be up from a little over 1 million bpd under the sanctions and only slightly below pre-sanctions peaks of 2.5 million bpd.
oil worker barrelsReuters/Edgar SuA worker prepares to transport oil pipelines to be laid for the Pengerang Gas Pipeline Project at an area 40km (24 miles) away from the Pengerang Integrated Petroleum Complex in Pengerang, Johor, Malaysia.
With Iran's exports rising and other producers pledging to freeze production near record-high levels, an agreement would do little to address a global supply overhang that sees at least a million barrels of crude produced every day in excess of demand.
Dutch bank ING said that technical market indicators implied that oil prices had developed a bottom near recent lows but that the "short-term upside is limited".
In physical markets, sentiment was also less bullish, with Abu Dhabi cutting its March retroactive official selling price (OSP) crude premium over benchmark Dubai prices by 64 cents to $3.06 per barrel on ample supplies.
This followed top exporter Saudi Arabia cutting its May Arab Light crude OSP by 10 cents per barrel to a discount of $0.85 per barrel to the Dubai average.
(Editing by Richard Pullin and Himani Sarkrar)
Read the original article on Reuters. Copyright 2016. Follow Reuters on Twitter

Tuesday, April 5, 2016

Europe can't find a 'significant gain in momentum'

Europe can't find a 'significant gain in momentum'

EuropeGettyOne of the sculptures of young girls by artist Rene Julien stands in front of a flag of the European Union at the Charlemagne building of the European Commission on November 17, 2011 in Brussels, Belgium. Eurozone member countries are continuing to struggle with a debt crisis afflicting a widening circle of nations as the rest of the world fears economic repercussions.
The eurozone's economic growth was "subdued" in the first quarter of 2016, and is struggling to find a "significant gain in momentum", according to the latest PMI data released by Markit on Tuesday morning.
According to Markit, the eurozone saw a composite PMI reading of 53.1, down from the flash reading of 53.7, but marginally up on economists expectations, which put the number at 53 flat.
The purchasing managers index (PMI) figures are given as a number between 0 and 100. Anything above 50 signals growth, while anything below means a contraction in activity — so the higher the better.
Markit's statement alongside the data said:
"March saw the rate of economic expansion in the euro area improve for the first time in three months. The extent of the acceleration was negligible, however, and less marked than that indicated by earlier flash data. Manufacturing saw faster growth of production, but this was mostly offset by a slower rate of output expansion at service providers." 
Here's what Chris Williamson, Markit's chief economist had to say:
"The eurozone economy failed to show any significant gain in momentum in March. With the PMI barely rising from February’s 13-month low, the region looks to have grown by just 0.3% again in the first quarter. “Sluggish growth is the result of lacklustre demand, accompanied by falling prices as firms compete at the expense of profit margins. Not surprisingly, hiring is coming under increased pressure as firms struggle to contain costs."
Here are the headline eurozone figures:
  • Services PMI: 53.1, down from February's 53.3, and behind the 54 estimated by Markit's flash data.
  • Composite PMI: Also 53.1, just up from February's 53, but down from the 53.7 flash reading.
Markit's chart shows just how much Europe is struggling to find substantially, sustainable growth right now. Take a look:
Markit PMI Markit
As well as the headline figures, Markit released data individually on the eurozone's four biggest economies. Here's how things look in Germany, France, Italy, and Spain:
  • German Composite: 54, just down from February's 54.1.
  • French Composite: 50, up from February's figure, but a big miss on the flash estimate of 51.1
  • Italian Services: 51.2, well down from the 53.8 figure in February, and missing expectations from economists of 54.
  • Spanish Services: 55.3, better than the expected 54.5, and well above February's 54.1 number.
The PMI figures come just a few weeks after the European Central Bank and its president Mario Draghi announced a series of new monetary policy measures, including cutting all its base rates, and extending its programme of bond buying.
The measures are designed to try and boost stalling growth, as well as inflation, within the Eurozone. So far the ECB's negative interest rate policy (NIRP) has failed to serve its purpose effectively, and today's data won't exactly fill Draghi and the rest of the ECB with confidence.
However, Markit points to a little bit of optimism after the ECB's new policies, with Williamson saying: “Hopes are pinned on the economy being rejuvenated by the ECB’s more assertive policy initiatives, and the upturn in service sector optimism seen during the month suggests that firms are taking a more positive view of the outlook.
Today's eurozone PMI's follow on from a pretty poor set of global data from the manufacturing sector. Activity levels across the global manufacturing sector expanded at the slowest pace in nearly three years in the first quarter of 2016.

India just slashed interest rates for the 5th time in just over a year

India just slashed interest rates for the 5th time in just over a year

India day flagREUTERS/Eduardo MunozPeople take part in the 35th India Day Parade in New York August 16, 2015.
India's central bank, the Reserve Bank of India has continued the global central bank trend of cutting rates, slashing the country's base interest rate from 6.75% to 6.5%. That's the lowest its been since 2011.
The cut is the fifth by the bank since the start of 2015, and had been widely expected by economists, but still adds to the huge number of cuts in interest rates since the financial crisis.
Last week, a chart from JP Morgan Asset Management's Alex Dryden, first reported by the Financial Times, showed that central banks have cut more than 650 times since 2008. Amongst the latest nations to cut are Norway, which dropped rates to just 0.5% in March, and said it could negative.
Speaking about the cut, the RBI's governor Raghuram Rajan left room for more cuts in the country's rate, saying:
The stance of monetary policy will remain accommodative. The Reserve Bank will continue to watch macroeconomic and financial developments in the months ahead with a view to responding with further policy action as space opens up.
At the same time as the announcement of the central rate cut, the RBI also left its cash reserve rate unchanged at 4%, and upped its reverse repo rate to 6% from 5.75%.

Credit Suisse is going after China

Credit Suisse is going after China

Tidjane ThiamREUTERS/Arnd Wiegmann
HONG KONG — Credit Suisse CEO Tidjane Thiam said on Tuesday the Swiss bank had been "underweight" in China and would look to build its wealth-management capabilities in the world's second-biggest economy, despite slowing growth.
Thiam told a media briefing on the sidelines of the annual Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong that he was not concerned by the slower economic growth in China. The CEO said he saw this as a natural development as the country transforms itself into a consumption-driven economy rather than one led by investment.
"We have been underweight (in) China and will continue to invest," said Thiam, 53, who joined the Zurich-based bank in July. The banker said he would be spending five days in China as part of his Asia trip, meeting clients and seeking to develop his understanding of their needs.
Thiam's focus on China comes at a time when Credit Suisse has made wealth management a key plank for its future growth. The bank is also shifting its focus to the Asia-Pacific region, where it already has an important presence in Southeast Asia: Thiam aims to more than double Asia-Pacific pretax income to 2.1 billion Swiss francs ($2.19 billion) by 2018.
China's blistering economic growth over the past decade has made it home to a million high-net-worth individuals, according to consultants Bain & Co, twice as many as in 2010. For foreign banks, Asia — and China in particular — has become the new battleground in developing wealth-management business.
But making money onshore in China has proved a challenge for most foreign banks, hampered by the heavily protected nature of China's financial services sector.
Credit Suisse lacks an onshore license to operate a wealth-management business in China, but it is considering securing one.
"Our strategy is primarily driven by wealth management and private banking," Thiam said. "We have a good customer base. Today we are offshore, but ultimately we will be onshore."
(Reporting by Denny Thomas and Lisa Jucca; Editing by Kenneth Maxwell)
Read the original article on Reuters. Copyright 2016. Follow Reuters on Twitter.

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