Friday, July 31, 2015

Get ready to relive the 2008 crisis: Albert Edwards CNBC

Get ready to relive the 2008 crisis: Albert Edwards


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Central banks in the Western world have set the scene for an "even bigger version" of the 2007-2008 global financial crisis, Societe Generale's bearish strategist Albert Edwards has claimed.
In a research note on Thursday, Edwards said that China's intervention to stabilize its volatile stock market was part of a larger global story, in which "rock bottom" interest rates and large fiscal deficits in the western world were pushing the global economy towards a fall. 
"QE (quantitative easing) will be stepped up to such a pace that you will hear the roar of the printing presses from Mars," Edwards said.
"I have not one scintilla of doubt that the western central banks have set us up for an even bigger version of the 2008 Great Financial Crisis."
Albert Edwards
Rukhsana Hamid | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Albert Edwards
QE has been a mainstay for several major central banks in the wake of the crisis, with money created to buy assets like government bonds, helping to inject liquidity into markets with the aim of stimulating the broader economy. 
Given his forecast step up in money-printing, Edwards said that gold, which tends to perform well during periods of high inflation, was a "must-have" safe-haven investment.

Fed rate hike: Edwards' foil?

While Edwards forecast prolonged ultra-easy monetary policy, many investors expect an interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve as early as this fall. 
"I think September is very much on play. I mean, look at where we are," Manish Singh, head of investments at Crossbridge Capital, told CNBC on Thursday. He pointed to improving U.S. GDP growth rates and unemployment, which declined to 5.3 percent in June. 
The Fed indicated on Wednesday that it was waiting for "some further improvement in the labor market," and inflation to move upwards towards its 2 percent target before raising interest rates.
Across the Atlantic, there has been speculation that a more hawkish cohort of Bank of England policymakers could soon lead to higher interest rates in Britain. 
Some economists predict that at this month's meeting, two members of the bank's Monetary Policy Committee voted in favor of rating the interest rate, rather than maintaining it at record low rate of 0.5 percent. The minutes from the meeting will be revealed next Thursday, giving a picture of how "hawkish" the hawks are. 
While Edward's bearish thoughts and predictions are widely-read by his fellow bankers and strategists, they do not always come true. 
In September 2012, for instance, he announced that the U.S. was in recession and that Wall Street would soon react, and warned of an "ultimate" death cross for the S&P 500—where the 50-month moving average falls below the 200-month moving average. Instead the S&P 500 continued to rally, and has gained nearly 50 percent since Edwards' pronouncement.
Donald Civitanova works at a post on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York, U.S., on Thursday, May 6, 2010.
Daniel Acker | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Donald Civitanova works at a post on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York, U.S., on Thursday, May 6, 2010.

Chinese intervention

Edwards' speculation on Chinese intervention comes in the wake of market volatility across Asian markets. China's central bank earlier this week said various monetary tools would be used to ensure market liquidity through to year-end, according to Reuters, following a dramatic plunge in Chinese equities, with the Shanghai Compositeclosing down 8.5 percent on Monday. 
The Chinese Securities Regulator has also said it will increase its stock purchases in an effort to prop up the market. 
The moves come as part of a tradition of intervention by the Chinese government, whose efforts to prevent to tackle market volatility included a ban earlier this month on shareholders selling large stakes in listed firms.
—With reporting from CNBC's Matt Clinch.

Is Canada ready for the dairy wars? - KONRAD YAKABUSKI


About 900 dairy cows go through the first of their twice daily milking ritual in the rotary milking parlour at J&L Walker Farms in Malahide, Ontario on Feb. 28, 2011. (Peter Power for The Globe and Mail)
KONRAD YAKABUSKI

Is Canada ready for the dairy wars?

New Zealand Trade Minister Tim Groser might be forgiven for having been a tad testy toward Canada when he arrived in Hawaii this week for negotiations on a vast new Asia-Pacific trade pact. The “Saudi Arabia of milk” has seen its dairy dream sour and Canadian protectionism is a sore spot among Kiwis.
Milk is to New Zealand’s economy what oil is to Canada’s. And after the boom, came the bust. Global milk prices have sunk 63 per cent since early 2014, the result of a supply glut not unlike the surge in shale oil production that has depressed crude prices. Facing sliding incomes, New Zealand’s dairy farmers are expected to cull one-in-six cows this year. The central bank, which cut interest rates in June and July, says more easing is needed. Many Kiwis are suddenly reassessing New Zealand’s decade-old decision to go all-in to become a global milk superpower.
As the head of giant Kiwi dairy co-op Fonterra, Theo Spierings, said in June: “The world has changed and the unprecedented global volatility we’re experiencing now is the new normal.”
The New Zealand experience is likely top of mind for Canadian International Trade Minister Ed Fast as Ottawa decides how far to go in opening up this country’s dairy sector to imports from other countries participating in the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Mr. Groser said New Zealand is looking for “commercially meaningful access” to Canada’s dairy market, but that much “hard yakka” (Kiwi for hard work) would be needed if a deal is to be reached at this week’s talks in Hawaii.
Critics of Canada’s supply-managed dairy sector, which guarantees prices to dairy farmers based on the average cost of production, say it encourages inefficiencies that cost Canadian consumers billions of dollars annually. Production quotas cap supply. And sky-high tariffs ensure our market remains closed to all but a tiny wedge of dairy imports. Canadian Council of Chief Executives head John Manley calls it “the last vestige of Soviet-style central planning on the planet.”
Advocates of opening our dairy market to global competition insist it would be a boon to the most efficient farmers and processors, allowing them to grow by exporting their products internationally. But that belies the painful fate that would likely await the vast majority of Canada’s 12,000 dairy farms. Having been sheltered from competition for so long, the relentless demands for lower costs and higher productivity would overwhelm most family-run dairy farms.
Those demands are only growing fiercer. The European Union’s move earlier this year to abolish milk quotas is expected to lead to a surge in production in countries with the most efficient dairy sectors, particularly the Netherlands, Denmark and Ireland. They are aiming to take on New Zealand in the Chinese market and will push for wider access to Canada’s dairy market than the tiny amount they stand to get in the pending Canada-Europe free-trade agreement.
Then there’s the United States, where industrial-sized dairy farms with more than 10,000 cows are not uncommon. (The average Canadian dairy farm has 77 cows.) At the TPP talks, the United States is pushing harder than any other country for access to the Canadian dairy market.
New Zealand’s dairy sector rode the Chinese boom until growth there flinched. China now has big stockpiles of whole-milk powder, New Zealand’s main export, leading most analysts to predict that low global milk prices (and a weaker Kiwi economy) will be around for a while.
That is likely good news for most of the world’s consumers, provided processors and retailers pass on those savings. But it’s bad news for New Zealand, which bet that China’s thirst for its milk would be unquenchable. Not only are European producers now eyeing the Chinese market. Domestic production is growing fast in China – one particular operation has 140,000 cows.
Were Canada to finally join the global milk market, consumers here (particularly the poorest ones) would benefit most. Dairy farmers, not so much. But that is what free trade is all about. As Adam Smith wrote in The Wealth of Nations: “It is the maxim of every prudent master of a family never to attempt to make at home what it will cost him more to make than to buy.”
Countries prosper by focusing on what they do best. New Zealand has big competitive advantages over Canada in milk production, including year-round, pasture-based dairy farming. But as New Zealanders are now discovering, being a milk superpower requires a strong stomach.

Windows 10 entices millions in first day




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Windows 10 entices millions in first day


[WASHINGTON] Some 14 million people installed the Windows 10 operating system in the first 24 hours following its release, Microsoft said, calling the response "overwhelmingly positive." The company said its new operating system aimed at computers, mobile devices and other gadgets got off to a strong start toward its goal of reaching one billion devices.
"We're humbled and grateful to see the response to Windows 10," corporate vice president Yusuf Mehdi said in a blog post late Thursday.
"We have seen unprecedented demand for Windows 10, with reviews and customer feedback overwhelmingly positive around the globe." The stakes are high for Microsoft as it pushes out the new operating system for both traditional computers and mobile devices such as tablets and smartphones.
The company is hoping the new system can help it gain traction in mobile, where it lags behind Google Android and Apple iOS, and in emerging technologies for computing.


Windows 10 - Microsoft skipped directly from Windows 8, which got a lackluster response - is being offered as a free upgrade for most devices, making it possible to be available quickly on billions of devices.
It will allow for voice, pen and gesture input, and in some cases biometric identification for improved security.
Mehdi said the company is rolling out the software in phases to make the transition easier.
"Our top priority has been ensuring that everyone has a great upgrade experience, so, we are carefully rolling out Windows 10 in phases, delivering Windows 10 first to our Windows Insiders," he said.
"While we now have more than 14 million devices running Windows 10, we still have many more upgrades to go before we catch up to each of you that reserved your upgrade."
In one sour note, the chief executive of Mozilla, which makes the Firefox Web browser, complained that Windows 10 imposes the new Edge browser as the default option, overriding choices made by users.
"The update experience appears to have been designed to throw away the choice your customers have made about the Internet experience they want, and replace it with the Internet experience Microsoft wants them to have," Mozilla CEO Chris Beard said in an open letter to his Microsoft counterpart Satya Nadella.
Mr Beard said the new operating system makes it more complicated to choose a competing browser such as Firefox.
"It now takes more than twice the number of mouse clicks, scrolling through content and some technical sophistication for people to reassert the choices they had previously made in earlier versions of Windows," Mr Beard said.
"It's confusing, hard to navigate and easy to get lost." Mr Beard urged Microsoft to "respect people's right to choice and control of their online experience by making it easier, more obvious and intuitive for people to maintain the choices they have already made through the upgrade experience."
AFP

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