Monday, December 4, 2017

CVS Health is buying Aetna for $69 billion in 2017's biggest deal

CVS Health is buying Aetna for $69 billion in 2017's biggest deal

CVS Health CEOCVS Health President and CEO Larry J. Merlo Reuters
  • CVS Health is buying Aetna for $69 billion ($145 a share and 0.8378 CVS shares per Aetna share).
  • The deal that was rumored for months was finally announced on Sunday.
  • The merger could reshape the American health care system as we know it.


CVS Health is buying Aetna, the companies announced Sunday.
The pharmacy giant is acquiring the third largest US insurer in a $69 billion deal. Aetna stockholders will be paid $145 a share in cash and 0.8378 CVS shares per Aetna share.
The deal creates a new type of company that includes a health insurer, a retail pharmacy, and a company that negotiates prescription drug prices with drugmakers called a pharmacy benefits manager. It's the biggest merger to happen in the US in 2017.
"This is a natural evolution for both companies as they seek to put the consumer at the center of health care delivery," the companies said in a news release. 
The timing of this massive acquisition is no coincidence. Speculation that Amazon might be getting into the pharmacy business has been rampant for months, and the company's notorious for stepping into new businesses and crushing the competition with low prices, fast delivery, and its massive network of loyal shoppers.

What this means for how your medication gets paid for

With the Aetna deal, CVS wouldn't be alone in controlling both the insurer and PBM part of paying for prescriptions. UnitedHealthcare, for example, owns the PBM OptumRx, while Anthem, which owns a variety of Blue Cross Blue Shield health insurance firms, will be launching its own PBM called IngenioRx.
Essentially, CVS would own every step of the prescription drug process with the exception of drug wholesalers, which are in charge of shipping drugs to pharmacies and hospitals, and the pharmaceutical companies that actually make the drugs. That would keep much of the money changing hands within the same company.
Here's a chart explaining how a drug travels from pharmaceutical manufacturer to a patient, and who takes a cut in the process. It's a complicated web of payments and rebates, but the simplified outcome of a deal that puts pharmacy, insurer, and PBM in one company is that the combined business walks away with more of a drug's sale price in the end.

With the Aetna deal, CVS would control everything that happens once a wholesaler has handed off the drug.
Who pays for your medication pharmaSkye Gould/Business Insider

Global market cap is about to hit $100 trillion and Goldman Sachs thinks the only way is down

Global market cap is about to hit $100 trillion and Goldman Sachs thinks the only way is down

  • Global market cap is about to hit $100 trillion.
  • A bull run of this length — nearly nine years — was last seen before the Great Depression.
  • Goldman Sachs believes the "bull market in everything" is about to come to an end.
  • In the medium term, we face either "slow pain" or "fast pain" in the equities markets, Goldman says.


This is a chart of the value of all stocks in all companies in all countries, globally. It is, technically, the market cap of Planet Earth, and everyone who sees it does a double take. In just the last few months, total market cap has rocketed upward to nearly $100 trillion worldwide:
world market capBusiness Insider / Bloomberg data
We first saw the chart in a note from CLSA analyst Damian Kestel: "I almost fell off my chair when I saw this and went to check that Bloomberg hadn’t reclassified some data … but no. I included this chart of total equity market cap in [a previous note to clients] in early June this year. At that point total world market cap was US$74 trillion, it’s now US$93 trillion," he wrote. (The chart excludes ETFs and the like, so there is no double-counting of single stocks in different indexes.)
What is worrying about the chart is that final, fast peak in 2017. Until then, world market cap looked like any other stock index: A series of incremental gains building on each other over time, with a pronounced dip around the Great Financial Crisis in 2008, followed by a healthy recovery.
This year, the chart just looks insane.

In the medium term there will be either "slow pain" or "fast pain"

Goldman Sachs international analyst Christian Mueller-Glissmann and his colleagues think the "bull market in everything" is about to come to an end. "the average valuation percentile across equities, bonds and credit is the highest since 1900," they write, and it will produce two likely medium-term scenarios: "Slow pain" or "fast pain" as a correction creates a bear market.
Their analysis starts from the perspective of a "60/40" portfolio, meaning an investment that is 60% in the S&P 500 Index and 40% in US government bonds — a typical blend you'd see in any private pension mutual fund or 401(k) plan. It's exactly the type of investment you are likely to be relying on to retire, in other words. Bonds are usually used as a hedge against stocks because they often hold their value when shares tumble.

"The current valuation percentile is most comparable to the late 20s, which ended in the ‘Great Depression’"

But that extended runup since 2009 — nearly nine years with a correction — has created a scenario last seen right before the Great Depression in the early 20th Century, the Goldman team says:
"The favourable macro backdrop has boosted returns across assets, driving a ‘bull market in everything’, despite and because there has been little inflation in the real economy. But as a result, valuations across assets are expensive vs. history, which reduces the potential for returns and diversification ... And elevated valuations increase the risk of drawdowns for the simple reason that there is less buffer to absorb shocks. The average valuation percentile across equity, bonds and credit in the US is 90%, an all-time high. While equities and credit were more expensive in the Tech Bubble, bonds were comparably attractive at the time. The current valuation percentile is most comparable to the late 20s, which ended in the ‘Great Depression.’"
Here is the historical perspective:
historical bull markets   goldman sachsGoldman Sachs
Get the latest Goldman Sachs stock price here.

REPUBLICANS REJOICE AFTER SENATE PASSES TAX BILL IN MAJOR WIN FOR TRUMP, GOP

REPUBLICANS REJOICE AFTER SENATE PASSES TAX BILL IN MAJOR WIN FOR TRUMP, GOP

donald trump flag smilePresident Donald Trump Joshua Lott/Getty Images
  • The Senate passed the Republican tax bill, the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, early Saturday morning.
  • The TCJA passed by a vote of 51-49, with Sen. Bob Corker being the only Republican to vote against it.
  • The bill can either be passed as is by the House — or the two chambers will go to a conference committee.


The Senate passed the Republican tax reform bill early Saturday in a massive win for the party and President Donald Trump, who has seen many of his agenda items stall in the legislature during his first year in office.
The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act passed on a vote of 51 to 49. Sen. Bob Corker was the only Republican to vote against the bill, which, among other things, proposes to cut the corporate rate to 20% while changing individual tax brackets and significantly undercutting portions of the Affordable Care Act. Its passage brings Republicans a step closer to their first major legislative achievement in the Trump presidency.
Trump applauded the passage of the Senate Republican tax bill on Saturday.
"Biggest Tax Bill and Tax Cuts in history just passed in the Senate," Trump tweeted. "Now these great Republicans will be going for final passage. Thank you to House and Senate Republicans for your hard work and commitment!"
Trump added that the bill's passage brought the US "one step closer to delivering MASSIVE tax cuts for working families across America." He also thanked Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Sen. Orrin Hatch, the second highest-ranking Republican in the chamber, for "shepherding our bill through the Senate. Look forward to signing a final bill before Christmas!"
The vote came just three weeks after Republicans introduced the original version. It came just hours after the text of the final version of the bill was released. GOP leaders moved the bill through the chamber at breakneck speed as they attempt to send legislation to Trump's desk by Christmas.
"You complain about process when you're losing," McConnell said of Democratic objections. "And that's what you heard on the floor tonight."
McConnell and Republican leaders won over a slew of skeptical Republican members in recent days to pass the bill. On Monday, as many as 10 GOP lawmakers were on the fence or against it, but significant last-minute changes were enough to ensure their support.
The changes forced the debate to stretch for hours, as Republicans released a final version of their bill with adjustments scribbled in the margins of the text.
The last-minute adjustments and final passage overcame a steady trickle of rough analyses of the bill. While Republican leaders and Trump administration officials promised as recently as three weeks ago that the bill would pay for itself with economic growth, the analyses have been universal: They have shown that the bill would add roughly $1 trillion or more to the federal deficit over 10 years, even when accounting for the growth.
The reports from various organizations, as well as the official government scorekeeper, the Joint Committee on Taxation, showed the Senate TCJA would produce only a modest boost to the US economy that would fade over time. They also found that while most would see a tax cut in the initial years of the legislation, many would see little change or an increase over time.

What comes next

Since the Senate TCJA is different from the House version of the bill, the legislation must either go to a conference committee — where members from both chambers unify the differing aspects — or the House could pass the Senate bill as it is.
House Speaker Paul Ryan, applauding the Senate's passage of the bill, said the two chambers would move "quickly" to a conference committee. Additionally, Rep. Kevin Brady — the chair of the House Ways and Means committee and author of the House TCJA — said in a statement that he plans to go to a conference committee.
"Now it’s time to take the best of both the House and Senate bills, make them even stronger in a conference committee, and finalize one piece of legislation that will dramatically improve the lives of Americans for generations to come," Brady said.
Following the passage of the bill, members on both sides of the aisle reacted swiftly. Republicans celebrated the step forward, saying that the bill will help to reinvigorate the US economy.
"This is a big moment for American families and small businesses ready to turn the page on an Obama-era recovery that has been far too sluggish," GOP Sen. John Cornyn, the second-highest ranking Republican, said in a statement. "Simplifying our nation’s tax code is the jump start our economy needs to bring jobs back and leave more money in the pockets of hardworking Texans."
On the other hand, Democrats decried changes to the Affordable Care Act and cuts for corporations.
"I offered to work with the President and Republicans, and I introduced multiple amendments that could have put real money in the pockets of Ohioans," Sen. Sherrod Brown said in a statement. "Instead Washington chose to cut taxes for corporations that send American jobs overseas, blow a hole in the deficit, and pay for it by cutting Medicare and kicking people off their health insurance."

Friday, December 1, 2017

Fintech: Revolutionizing Wealth Management

01 December 2017

Fintech: Revolutionizing Wealth Management

Fintech is changing the dynamics of the advisory relationship.
It is helping advisers focus less on investment management — much of which it can automate — and more on building client relationships.
It is transforming traditional wealth management at a breathtaking speed and revolutionizing the entire wealth management industry.
Mandating Change
Fintech’s phenomenal growth rate demonstrates that firms must adopt the technology if they want to survive in today’s competitive market. In 2015, global fintech investment (business investment by firms) grew by 75%, or $9.6, billion to $22.3 billion. The reasons for this are obvious: Fintech increases scale, decreases overhead costs, and improves adviser productivity while simultaneously providing clients with additional investment options, lower costs, and greater transparency.
Though fintech adds a layer of complexity to the mix, it is often so streamlined and user-friendly that it makes the day-to-day of portfolio and wealth management much less cumbersome. Advisers benefit by having more time to spend with clients and build their business. Clients have a reliable point of contact and know that their money is being managed in a professional and methodical manner 24 hours a day, seven days a week.
Many fintech firms are “cutting out the middleman” and creating a direct-to-consumer framework of financial offerings, in cash services, banking, wealth management, lending, insurance, and even settlement services. They are constantly evolving to meet consumer needs, and are helping keep the traditional industry players honest. For example, relative newcomers like AspirationBettermentLearnVestRobinhoodProsper, and Acorns have disrupted the market. Well-established firms such as BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, LPL Financial, and Edward Jones have not only taken notice, but have built strong contending platforms of their own and partnered with other successful fintech start-ups.
Initially, many onlookers thought these partnerships were just “marriages of convenience,” but the incredible rate of change in the field and the expansive growth of investment in fintech heralds a new era of innovation and a triumphal return to true stewardship. Firms that are serious about contending in this explosive environment had best heed the call.
Transforming Wealth Management with Technology
For advisers, the possibilities of the emerging technology are compelling. The potential benefits include increased automation of clerical tasks and the other mundane service-related functions such as data entry, platform aggregation, and portfolio rebalancing. Free for more client-facing work and comprehensive financial planning, advisers can foster stronger, more meaningful client relationships while streamlining their entire wealth management process. In fact, many services and tasks that office personnel and even advisers used to perform as a matter of course, are now being commoditized by an expanding repertoire of new technologies and applications.
The fintech revolution was preceded by the rise in discount brokers and passive-investing strategies like E*Trade and Vanguard Now, global assets under management by robo-advisers are predicted to reach $8.1 trillion by 2020, from just $200 billion at the close of 2016. These automated investing strategies are fast becoming the norm industry-wide.
Perhaps most compelling is the emergence of artificial intelligence (AI) in wealth management.
AI is influencing advisory-service software and CRM applications with predictive analytics tools like Salesforce’s “Einstein” and IBM’s Watson. Machine learning and other types of AI technology can analyze client behavior and use the data to deliver individualized advice based on their investing, saving, and spending habits.
Although some advisers fear being replaced by AI at some point in the future, the more proactive are embracing it to enhance their own practice management and drive revenue growth.
To be sure, the growing divergence between the old and new advising approaches is compelling — and possibly alarming: Nearly 100% of young advisers use social media, compared to only 50% of older advisers. One in three advisers lack a client portal, and 20% do not use any financial planning software. Of advisers between the ages of 65 and 74 years, 37% don’t have any planning software. In stark contrast, 40% of 25- to 34-year-old advisers noted that they realized higher ROI from their financial planning applications than from any other technology.
The implications are significant. As a group, younger, more tech-savvy advisers, or “eAdvisors,” have nearly 40% higher AUM, serve 55% more clients, and find more professional satisfaction than their counterparts.”
While some advisers may be wary of the current technology push, clients are expecting more. According to “The Virtual Financial Advisor: Delivering Personalized Advice in the Digital Age,” published by McKinsey & Company, “40% to 45% of affluent clients who changed their primary wealth management firm in the previous two years moved to a digitally-led firm.” What’s more, a full 72% of investors under the age of 40 indicated they would be comfortable working with a virtual financial adviser.
Online collaboration and digital tools are becoming less of an option and more of a requirement. Efficient and direct communication with clients and a greater array of firm services are being demanded and delivered. Mindful of the potential threat posed by such millennial-courting tech stalwarts as Facebook, Amazon, and Google, many in the financial industry are prioritizing improvements in their digital experience, transparency, and existing cost structures.
Fintech is transforming the finance sector and how wealth is managed. The drive toward efficiency and agility in practice management benefits both clients and advisers. The value add is no longer in the inner workings of wealth management, but rather in how existing and evolving tools can enhance the client experience and deepen the advisory relationship.
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All posts are the opinion of the author. As such, they should not be construed as investment advice, nor do the opinions expressed necessarily reflect the views of CFA Institute or the author’s employer.
Image credit: ©Getty Images/Alexsl

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