Tuesday, October 10, 2017

More Brexit headaches as trade with the EU rises and UK exports to the rest of the world fall

More Brexit headaches as trade with the EU rises and UK exports to the rest of the world fall

cliff dive fallGoing down! REUTERS/Brian Snyder
LONDON – The UK's trade gap with the world widened and construction output fell in the three months to August, according to the latest data from the Office of National Statistics.
The UK's trade deficit with the rest of the world— the shortfall between exports and imports — increased by £2.9 billion to £10.8 billion, the ONS said.
Exports of goods to the European Union increased by 4.1%, while exports to non-EU countries fell more than 8% led by a decrease in fuel exports.
The figures are adjusted to exclude "erratic commodities" that can skew the data, such as gold and aircrafts.
Here's the chart:
exportsONS
Meanwhile, construction output contracted by 0.8% in the three months to August "due to decreases in both repair and maintenance, which fell 0.6% and all new work, which fell 0.9%," according to the ONS.
Blane Perrotton, managing director of surveyors Naismiths said in an emailed comment: “Few industries provide a better early warning system for the wider economy than construction, and the sector is starting to show the strain." 
“Demand for commercial property construction has taken a substantial hit as larger companies activate Brexit contingency plans and smaller firms hold off on plans to scale up their premises," he said.
Construction output is still high compared to previous years, as the chart shows:constructionONSONS

$1.6 billion startup MongoDB could be worth less than $1 billion when its IPO happens next week

$1.6 billion startup MongoDB could be worth less than $1 billion when its IPO happens next week

Dev IttycheriaMongoDB CEO Dev Ittycheria MongoDB
Unicorn startup MongoDB has taken another step toward its IPO by offering a price range for its shares.
It plans to price shares between $18 and $20 apiece it said in anupdated prospectus filed with the SEC. The IPO is generally expected to take place on October 19.
At the mid price, MongoDB would raise about $152 million and be worth about $930 million, according to PitchBook.
That's quite a bit shy of its last valuation as a private company of $1.6 billion.
The New York-based database company has been a darling of the VC world. It raised over $311 million from private investors with later investors paying as much as $16.72/share, according to PitchBook (and earning dividends on those shares).
MongoDB offers database software that's particularly good for today's messy, big data applications, a market known as "No-SQL" databases. It fills a somewhat different technical niche than the traditional databases sold by Oracle and Microsoft. However, as No-SQL tech has grown in popularity, MongoDB has faced competition with traditional vendors and newcomers alike who offer their own versions of No SQL, including Oracle and Amazon Web Services, as well as other startups like Couchbase.
Even so, MongoDB is the granddaddy of this new market. It makes the most popular No-SQL option and is now the fourth most popular database on the market today, according to market watching site DB-Engines.
As for its financials, the company isn't profitable, albeit revenues are growing and losses are shrinking.
MongoDB reported $67.9 million in revenue in the six months ending July 31, and lost $45.76 million.  It did $45.1 million in revenue over the same period last year and lost about the same amount of money, $45.33 million. That's a loss of $1.71 a share over those same six months, versus $1.93 a share in the same period last year.

The EU is set to delay Brexit transition talks, in a fresh blow to Theresa May

The EU is set to delay Brexit transition talks, in a fresh blow to Theresa May

Theresa MayPrime Minister Theresa May addresses the Conservative Party conference in Manchester. Christopher Furlong/Getty Images
LONDON — The European Union plans to reject Britain's request to finalise the terms of a transition deal before the end of the year, in what would be a major blow to Theresa May's plan for Brexit.
The Prime Minister wants to move the protracted talks on to a future UK-EU trading relationship as soon as possible, but has struggled to get past the "divorce" phase of negotiation.
British businesses are keen for May and her government to make clear what Britain's trade relationship with the EU will be from the second it officially leaves at the end of March 2019.
In a recent speech in Florence, May said that Britain wants a two-year transitional phase in which access to the European single market can continue on the terms it currently has as an EU member state.
Her government has also made it clear that it believes talks on trade must begin as soon as possible in order for progress to be made, and cannot be regarded as separate from other issues under discussion.
However, according to The Times newspaper, a recent meeting of European ministers, diplomats, and business groups made clear that the EU's chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, is unlikely to conclude that "sufficient progress" has been made for talks on trade to get underway next week.
The EU has been insistent that talks on trade cannot begin until "sufficient progress" is has been made on the issues of the Irish border, citizens' rights, and Britain's financial obligations to the EU.
Barnier said last month that it could take "weeks or even months" for Brexit negotiations to move beyond this opening stage and onto trade.
France, Germany and Romania have all opposed an attempt to move Brexit negotiations onto the subject of future UK-EU trade ties later this month, the Times report claims, citing an unnamed diplomatic source.
The source said that Germany is keen for the EU to spend at least three months establishing a common position on transition, adding that "Germany is hostile and has told the others that it is not going to happen."

Confusion over May's transition plans

Back in Westminster, there are still big question marks over what Prime Minister May wants the transition phase to entail — specifically whether Britain will remain inside the European single market during that time.
Yesterday Labour MP Ed Miliband invited May to clarify what she meant in her Florence speech when she claimed that Britain will seek to continue the "current terms" of its single market access during the transition phase.
The PM reiterated that she wants to negotiate maximum market access but did not clarify whether this meant staying in the single market.

May says Britain is now actively preparing for "every eventuality" i.e. no deal
A confused-looking Ed Miliband says "what does that even mean?" after listening to Theresa May's explanation of her single market plans pic.twitter.com/P4GOF8VuLP


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