India's economy just hit the wall after the introduction of a new tax on goods and services

• David Scutt, Business Insider Australia

• 8h
• 5,318

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the G-20 summit in Hamburg, Germany, on July 7. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay

Operating conditions across India's services sector deteriorated sharply last month following the July 1 implementation of the nation's first tax on goods and services.

The Nikkei-IHS Markit India Services Purchasing Managers' Index plunged to 45.9, from 53.1, its lowest level since September 2013.

The PMI measures changes in activity levels across a particular sector from one month to the next. Anything above 50 signals that activity levels are improving, while a reading below 50 suggests they're deteriorating. The distance from 50 indicates how quickly activity levels are expanding or contracting.

A movement this sharp from positive territory to below 50 is highly unusual in PMI data.

The reading of 45.9 indicates that not only did activity levels across India's services sector deteriorate, but they did so at their fastest pace in nearly four years.

The result mirrored that in the separate Nikkei-IHS Markit India manufacturing PMI, which fell to 47.9 from 50.9 in June.

Business Insider Australia

"Output and new work declined for the first time since January, with rates of reduction the quickest since September 2013," IHS Markit said. "This had an adverse effect on the labor market, with employment contracting over the month."

The launch of the tax, it said, "was mentioned by services firms as having caused a contraction in new work, leading to lower activity." It continued, "The drop in new business inflows echoed the trend for output, being the first since January and the most pronounced in nearly four years."

Nasty.

Despite the ugly July report card, it's clear that firms aren't overly concerned that the weakness will last. Confidence levels looking 12 months ahead were at their highest since August of last year.

Read the original article on Business Insider Australia. Copyright 2017. Follow Business Insider Australia on Twitter.

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35% GDP collapse: Venezuela's unprecedented economic slide in numbers

WILL MARTIN

AUG 3, 2017

LONDON — The South American state of Venezuela is in deep trouble.

The country, which was once hailed by many on the Western left as a shining example of socialism in action, is crumbling, both economically and politically.

In recent days fresh trouble has been sparked by an election decried by critics as illegitimate and designed to give the unpopular government of President Nicolas Maduro powers to rewrite the constitution and sideline the opposition-led congress.

Earlier this week, the USA labelled Maduro as a dictator for “seizing absolute power,” and imposed sanctions on the country, compounding the state’s economic woes.

Economically speaking, Venezuela’s main problem is that it relies far too heavily on exporting oil as a means of generating economic prosperity.

When times were good in the oil markets and oil was worth in excess of $US100 per barrel the country was able to grow rapidly and offer its citizens a great quality of life.

However, three years on from the crash in oil prices, the country simply cannot do that anymore, and its citizens are suffering. Problems in Venezuela certainly weren’t initially caused by the oil price crash, but it accelerated and exacerbated those issues.

Associated Press correspondent Hannah Dreier recalled on Wednesday how food shortages are so bad that one bakery near where she lived in Venezuela’s capital, Caracas, allowed people to queue outside, not to buy bread, but to rummage through its bins for scraps.

“People waited for their turn to hunt through black bags of bakery garbage. A young woman found a box of muffin crumbs. A teenage boy focused on finding juice containers and drinking whatever remained,” Dreier writes.

Beyond the harrowing tales of human suffering and crisis, lies cold, hard data, some of which is truly shocking.

In 2017, Venezuela’s economy is 35% smaller, in GDP terms, than it was in 2013, and 40% lower in per capita terms, as noted by Harvard economist Ricardo Hausmann, who was the country’s minister of planning in the early 1990s, in a piece for Project Syndicate

Hausmann reflects on the scale of the contraction in a recent article for Project Syndicate, writing that the shrinking is “a significantly sharper contraction than during the 1929-1933 Great Depression in the United States, when US GDP is estimated to have fallen 28%.”

“It is slightly bigger than the decline in Russia (1990-1994), Cuba (1989-1993), and Albania (1989-1993).”

Beyond the headline numbers, things are even more stark. Here is Hausmann once again:

“Clearly, a 40% decline in per capita GDP is a very rare event. But several factors make the situation in Venezuela even bleaker. For starters, while Venezuela’s GDP contraction (in constant prices) from 2013 to 2017 includes a 17% decline in oil production, it excludes the 55% plunge in oil prices during that period. Oil exports fell by $US2,200 per capita from 2012 to 2016, of which $US1,500 was due to the decline in oil prices.”

You can read Ricardo Hausmann’s full analysis here.

On a different macroeconomic level, inflation in the country is still growing uncontrollably, while the country’s currency, the bolivar, devalues at an almost unbelievable rate.

While the official rate of exchange between the US dollar and the bolivar is roughly 10 bolivars to the dollar, in reality it is more like 10,000.

A recent analysis by CNN Money showed that at the end of July, a dollar was worth 10,389 bolivars, up from about 3,000 at the start of the year, and 8,000 just a week beforehand.

Inflation could exceed 1,600% by the end of 2017, according to some estimates, and many restaurants have now stopped publishing prices because costs are rocketing so fast.

Restaurants, however, are but a dream for the vast majority of Venezuelans, and one statistic shows this in a stark, harrowing light.

As The Economist — which ran a special report on the country last week — writes: “Over the past year around three-quarters of Venezuelans have lost weight, averaging 8.7kg per person, because of a scarcity of food.”

Read more at https://www.businessinsider.com/statistics-about-venezuelas-economic-collapse-2017-8#PmOCp4AcooFPyAvJ.99

BCE: Telecom's Little Giant

Jul.31.17 | About: BCE Inc. (BCE)

Dividend Sleuth

Long only, value, growth at reasonable price, dividend income

(8,192 followers)

Summary

BCE is a leader in North American telecommunications.

BCE provides phone, Internet, TV connections and media programming.

One goal, six strategic imperatives.

Currency exchange made easy.

Thesis

While AT&T (NYSE:T) and Verizon (NYSE:VZ) vie for pole position among U.S. telecoms, BCE, Inc. (NYSE:BCE) is the little giant among North American telecoms. BCE is the largest telecommunications company in the competitive Canadian market. It has led the way in North America in building a comprehensive, innovative communications platform. AT&T and Verizon are taking on more debt and scrambling to embrace related industries. BCE is already there and is well-positioned for steady growth in earnings and dividends. BCE is 1.89% of the portfolio. The cost basis is US$43.99. My target to add more is US$45.50.

Unless otherwise noted, I use U.S. dollars in this article.

The Telecom Universe

Major competitors are Rogers Communications, Inc. (NYSE:RCI), Telus Corporation (NYSE:TU) and Shaw Communications, Inc. (NYSE:SJR). This table gives a quick snapshot of BCE, the other three major Canadian telecommunications companies and the two largest U.S. telecoms.

Telecom	Price	Qtr Div C$	Yr Div C$	Yr Div US$	Yield	Shares in Millions	Book Value	Total Book Value	LT Debt	Equity Mkt Cap	Total Debt	% Total Debt	EPS	P/E	Payout Ratio	CR	Est 5Y EPS
BCE	46.95	0.7175	2.87	2.31	4.92%	897.8	13.49	12111.5	41.4%	42152	24063.0	57.1%	2.61	18.0	88.5%	BBB+	3.65%
RCI	51.77	0.48	1.92	1.55	2.98%	505.5	8.90	4498.7	65.6%	26168	16989.0	64.9%	1.57	33.0	98.4%	BBB+	8.00%
TU	36.32	0.4925	1.97	1.59	4.37%	591.0	10.92	6453.7	56.1%	21465	13777.0	64.2%	1.71	21.2	92.7%	BBB+	6.37%
SJR	22.18	0.2963	1.19	0.95	4.30%	495.7	8.95	4436.2	48.7%	10994	5568.0	50.6%	0.87	25.5	109.6%	BBB-	9.05%
T	39.00			1.96	5.03%	6150	20.08	123492.0	49.5%	239850	143665.0	59.9%	2.05	19.0	95.6%	BBB+	7.02%
VZ	47.94			2.31	4.82%	4080	5.76	23500.8	80.6%	195595	116546.0	59.6%	3.00	16.0	77.0%	BBB+	2.47%

Table Data: Price was the closing price as of 7/28/17. Qtr Div C$ is the current quarterly dividend in Canadian dollars. Yr Div C$ is the current annual dividend in Canadian dollars. Yr Div US$ is the annual dividend in U.S. dollars, using the 7/28/17 currency exchange rate from X-Rates: 1 CAD = US$ 0.8048 (The Canadian dollar has been gaining strength vis-a-vis the U.S. dollar in recent weeks). Finviz was the source of Shares in Millions (shares outstanding), Book Value (per share), trailing 12 months EPS and Est 5y EPS (estimated 5-year EPS growth). Total Book Value is the Book Value times the number of shares outstanding. Better Investing was the source of Total Debt in millions and percentage of LT Debt (long-term debt to total capitalization). Equity Mkt Cap is the 7/28 price multiplied by the shares outstanding. % Total Debt is the total debt divided by the total equity market capitalization. The P/E Ratio is the 7/28 price divided by the trailing 12 months EPS. The Payout Ratio is the annual dividend divided by the trailing 12 months EPS. CR is the credit rating is from Standard & Poor's, as reported by F.A.S.T. Graphs.

Is a Surprise Coming for BCE Inc. (BCE) This Earnings Season?

August 02, 2017, 08:33:00 AM EDT By Zacks Equity Research, Zacks.com

Shutterstock photo

Investors are always looking for stocks that are poised to beat at earnings season and BCE Inc.BCE may be one such company. The firm has earnings coming up pretty soon, and events are shaping up quite nicely for their report.

That is because BCE Inc. is seeing favorable earnings estimate revision activity as of late, which is generally a precursor to an earnings beat. After all, analysts raising estimates right before earnings-with the most up-to-date information possible-is a pretty good indicator of some favorable trends underneath the surface for BCE in this report.

In fact, the Most Accurate Estimate for the current quarter is currently at 69 cents per share for BCE, compared to a broader Zacks Consensus Estimate of 67 cents per share. This suggests that analysts have very recently bumped up their estimates for BCE, giving the stock a Zacks Earnings ESP of 2.99% heading into earnings season.

BCE, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

BCE, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise | BCE, Inc. Quote

Why is this Important?

A positive reading for the Zacks Earnings ESP has proven to be very powerful in producing both positive surprises, and outperforming the market. Our recent 10 year backtest shows that stocks that have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or better show a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and have returned over 28% on average in annual returns (see more Top Earnings ESP stocks here ).

Given that BCE has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and an ESP in positive territory, investors might want to consider this stock ahead of earnings. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here .

Clearly, recent earnings estimate revisions suggest that good things are ahead for BCE Inc., and that a beat might be in the cards for the upcoming report.

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The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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This article appears in: Investing , Earnings , Investing Ideas , Stocks