Friday, February 10, 2017

Trump vows to honor 'One China' policy in first phone call as president with China's Xi

Trump vows to honor 'One China' policy in first phone call as president with China's Xi

phone call Donald TrumpMark Wilson/Getty Images
US President Donald Trump looked to patch up relations with China by promising to honor the "One China" agreement between the world's two biggest economies on his first phone call as president with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
A press release from the White House said that during an "extremely cordial" and "lengthy" conversation on Thursday evening, the "two leaders discussed numerous topics and that Trump agreed, at the request of President Xi, to honor our 'one China' policy."
The release also said the two leaders extended invitations to meet in their respective countries and representatives of each country "will engage in discussions and negotiations on various issues of mutual interest."
Trump rattled the US's relationship with China after his inauguration by breaking with decades of US policy and taking a call from Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-Wen in December.
The "One China" policy, to which the US and China agreed in 1972, holds that China and Taiwan belong to a single country. Many on the island of Taiwan, officially known as the Republic of China, see themselves as the legitimate government-in-exile of all of China after the Communist Party took control of the mainland.
For that reason, recognition of Taiwan internationally poses an existential threat to China. China has warned Trump that the "One China" policy between the US and China was nonnegotiable.
The White House said Wednesday that Trump had provided Xi with a letter to correspond with Xi's written well wishes on Trump's inauguration. In the letter, the White House said, Trump told Xi he "looks forward to working with President Xi to develop a constructive relationship that benefits both the United States and China."

Wednesday, February 8, 2017

The Fintech Files: Who Will Dominate Mobile Payments?

The Fintech Files: Who Will Dominate Mobile Payments?

Categories: Drivers of ValueFuture States
The Fintech Files: Who Will Dominate Mobile Payments?
Mobile payment may not be the hottest area in fintech, but the largest fintech company by far is a payment company.
Of all the new fintech uses, mobile payment is arguably the one in which traditional financial institutions have lost the most share. For example, Alipay and WeChat Pay already have millions of users although they have only been in the space a short time. Together, they processed 88% of all mobile payment transactions in China in 2015.
For those not familiar, the payment business involves several independent parties. A basic payment transaction begins with a consumer using her card to pay for a product or service at a merchant. The payment then gets transferred from the issuing bank — the bank that issued the card to the consumer — to the merchant’s account at the acquiring bank via the card’s payment network.
PayPal and its peers have radically changed these dynamics. Alibaba and Tencent, the tech giants behind Alipay and WeChat Pay, respectively, have gone even further and started their own banks. The threat to traditional banking institutions is more real than ever.
Who will dominate mobile payments on a global scale? With that question in mind, I spoke with Ken Chew, managing director, DBS Bank’s consumer finance business, including payments.
Larry Cao, CFA: How essential is payment for banks?
Ken Chew: I think payment is probably on top of the whole food chain. Banks [use] current or savings accounts for their funding purposes. Also, there is a whole value chain in terms of payment, so they make money as well. Payment also generates a lot of data for banks to understand their customers.
Is payment a low-margin business for banks so they have less interest in defending it?
Payment involves credit card payment, debit card payment, fund transfer, and cross-border transfer. When you look at global banks, it still contributes very substantially to their overall revenue. Within the banking communities, when you look at payment, credit card is part of the payment ecosystem. When you look at the fees and interest income of credit cards, of course the interest income is more substantial than the fees, and it varies from market to market. For instance, Europe is more about debit payment. The interest income is not substantial. But when you look at markets like the US and Australia, the interest income portion is quite substantial.
How have fintech companies taken the mobile payment share from the traditional financial institutions?
When you look at payment, basically it is a fund transfer from the customer to the merchant. This is what Visa and MasterCard have built to facilitate. Because the funds sit with the bank, they facilitate the payment. Now come Alipay and WeChat Pay, and they want to disintermediate the association point. For instance, they want to create a new ecosystem for payment, but basically what they want to do is still facilitate payment between customers and merchants. However, technology firms, like Apple Pay, don’t sign up with merchants. The merchants still belong to us. Apple Pay is just one of our partners, but they don’t disintermediate us. They just provide a different form and user experience for customers.
Previously, banks had the entire payment area, but now they only have a slice of the pie, right?
They do have a slice of the pie, but from our perspective, we are growing our pie as well. Of course, Alipay and WeChat Wallet are trying to create a new ecosystem. I don’t think they have taken a lot of market share, because their value proposition is to charge merchants a lower fee. The other thing is that over the years, banks have built a loyalty system. For example, customers use our cards and they earn our rewards.
Is this similar to PayPal in the US? It hasn’t been a huge challenge to MasterCard and Visa, but it is arguably the largest finTech company.
There’s a lot of noise, but the way I look at it, fintech is more about collaborating with the banks rather than disrupting them. Especially in the more mature markets.
What gap do you think Alipay and Tencent were filling, so they were able to gain business so quickly in China?
China is unique in my view. The reason why Alipay and Tencent can scale up so fast is that they have a customer base, whereas other fintech companies don’t. So, when you have a customer base, driving the adoption becomes so much faster.
In the case of China, these technology firms have already grown so big, they probably don’t have an incentive to really collaborate on a larger scale with any financial institutions, right?
If you look at Alipay, they are a payment company, but it expands beyond ecommerce to offer financial services. When you look at especially WeChat Wallet, they do work with financial institutions. They do still need a funding source. Their customers still need a bank account to fund their wallet, so there’s still collaboration. WeChat used to be a messaging company, but they extend beyond that, so they have ecommerce within their social media as well. Now they are in payments, they are in wealth management, and they have a WeBank platform for banks as well.
Do you see other fintech areas where financial institutions have a strong edge or the other way around?
Banks have started to realize the threats from fintech, so many of us have started to build those capabilities. For example, we launched a digital bank in India. Basically we utilize the voice technology [by a company that] previously built Siri to do our customer service in India.
Susanna Tai contributed to this article. 
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All posts are the opinion of the author. As such, they should not be construed as investment advice, nor do the opinions expressed necessarily reflect the views of CFA Institute or the author’s employer.

Crude oil posts massive inventory build

Crude oil posts massive inventory build

It hasn’t been a good start to February for crude prices, especially in recent days.
Weighed down by a resurgent US dollar, concerns about a ramping up in US shale production and massive build in US crude inventories reported by the American Petroleum Institute (API) on Tuesday, front-month WTI futures have been hammered, falling to the lowest level seen since January 20.
From the high of $54.34 per barrel on February 2, it’s now lost close to 5%.
Crude wti feb 9 2017Front-Month WTI Futures Hourly Chart. Thomson Reuters via Business Insider Australia
After being undermined by a rebound in the US dollar and intensified concerns over a rebound in US shale oil production, the latest leg lower was sparked by a mammoth build in US crude inventories last week.
The API reported that inventories increased by a massive 14.227 million barrels — one of the largest weekly builds on record — which was significantly higher than the build of 2.38 million expected by markets.
The enormous build comes just a day before the release of separate data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on inventory levels on Wednesday.
If the API data is confirmed by the EIA, it will be the largest build since October last year, according to Reuters.
Front-month WTI futures currently trade at $51.70 a barrel.
Read the original article on Business Insider Australia. Copyright 2017. Follow Business Insider Australia on Twitter.

Thursday, January 26, 2017

The Dutch government accidentally published a list of George Soros's short bets

The Dutch government accidentally published a list of George Soros's short bets

RTR3CZ0ZBillionaire investor George Soros of Soros Fund Management attends the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos January 26, 2013. REUTERS/Pascal Lauener
Holland's markets regulator "inadvertently" posted details on its website of short positions held by hedge funds in the Netherlands, including those of billionaire George Soros,according to a report in the Financial Times. 
Hedge funds take short positions when they expect the price of a particular asset to fall. So, in other words, it is what hedge funds are betting against.
The details were briefly posted on Tuesday, showing Soros to have bet against Dutch bank ING, taking a short position of 0.3% in the lender in June 2016, the FT reported. The short bet was one of hundreds listed on the site, going back to 2012, according to the FT.
The AFM also revealed that the secretive Medallion Fund, run by Renaissance Technologies for its employees, shorted a number of small cap Dutch stocks.
The Medallion Fund is one of the most successful quantitative trading funds ever, making an annualised return of over 70% in the 20 years from 1994 to 2014.
"On the afternoon of Tuesday 24 January, after the close of the market, the AFM inadvertently published a list on its website that included net short positions of less than 0.5% instead of publishing the daily list of net short positions of 0.5% and higher," the AFM said in a statement on its website.
"The AFM corrected this mistake and posted the correct list of net short positions of 0.5% and higher on the morning of Wednesday, 25 January. We regret this error."
A successful short trade often involves borrowing the stock of a company from an investor, selling it and then buying it back at a later date for a lower price, pocketing the difference. 
European Union rules in force since 2012 require hedge funds to disclose to the public short positions of over 0.5% in a particular company's stock. Positions of over 0.2% only have to be made known to the domestic markets regulator, updated for each additional 0.1% – it is these non-public trades that the AFM briefly revealed.
Soros, who made a $1 billion betting against the pound in 1992, is famed for his short trading. A day after the UK's June 23 referendum to leave the European Union, he took out a $108 million short position in Deutsche Bank.

Wednesday, January 25, 2017

The Dow closed above 20,000 for the first time ever — here are some other big landmarks

The Dow closed above 20,000 for the first time ever — here are some other big landmarks

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After weeks of anticipation, the Dow Jones Industrial Average finally closed above 20,000 for the first time in the index's long history.
To commemorate the occasion (even though the moment could be somewhat overrated) we took a look at the history of when the index hit some other big round number landmarks, using historical data on the Dow's closing values from MeasuringWorth.com.
The Dow first closed above 100 on January 12, 1906. The bull market of the 1980s and the tech bubble of the 1990s saw several milestones in quick succession. Wednesday's close over 20,000 came nearly 18 years after the index first broke into five digits on March 29, 1999.

The biggest companies in the world are excited about one of Trump's key economic plans

The biggest companies in the world are excited about one of Trump's key economic plans 

S&P 500 companies are pumped for President Donald Trump to cut their taxes.

Trump has proposed lowering the statutory tax rate on US corporations to 15% from the current 39%. While few companies actually pay the full 39% (the average effective tax rate for S&P 500 companies is around 29%), the possibility that the rate could drop even further has executives pretty jazzed up.

According to FactSet's John Butters, of the 42 S&P 500 companies that reported earnings through January 18, 11 of them have brought up Trump's tax proposal. It is also the most cited policy of Trump's by these firms.

Firms from across many sectors have all said the drop in the tax rate would be good for business.

"I think when you say indirect and direct, you mean direct, obviously, we've been a relatively high taxpayer. And so to the extent to which tax rates come down, we're a beneficiary," said Goldman Sachs Co-COO Harvey Schwartz. "But obviously, changes in tax policy can be a huge catalyst for how all of our clients think about deploying their capital, strategic decisions."

Delta Airlines also touted the benefits of a tax cut on their business.

"And then the other item that I mentioned is the tax reform that's being discussed," said executives on Delta's earnings call. "I see Delta certainly being a beneficiary of that, though it's hard to speculate as to the form it will take, given its very early."

Following taxes, regulation was the second most mentioned policy with eight companies mentioning the possibility of reforms, followed by trade policy (6), fiscal stimulus or infrastructure spending (4), and healthcare (4).

Trump touted the possibility of a tax cut in a meeting with top business executives on Monday, saying that he wants a rate of "15% to 20%."
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