Friday, August 12, 2016

Half of US jobs could be taken by robots in the next 20 years — here's how likely it is that yours will be one of them

Half of US jobs could be taken by robots in the next 20 years — here's how likely it is that yours will be one of them

 More Charts
  •  
  •  
  •  
People are worried about their jobs being taken over by robots.
And so, in a recent note to clients, a Morgan Stanley team led by Elga Bartsch included a chart showing the probability of various jobs becoming automatable.
They used data from a recent study by Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, which found that about 47% of total US employment is at risk of being replaced by machines over the next two decades.
"A material shift in the composition of the labour force would result as demand for low skilled labour remains robust as many personal in-person services are not yet replaceable by machines," according to the Morgan Stanley team. 
"Hence, the bifurcation in productivity of the workforce to low and high-skilled could be weighing on average productivity growth."
The Morgan Stanley selected 15 various jobs for their chart, but if you want to see more head over to Frey and Osborne's report.
robot jobs COTDMorgan Stanley


Tiny German bank breaks taboo by charging rich clients for deposits


Tiny German bank breaks taboo by charging rich clients for deposits


left
right
A view shows Raiffeisenbank Gmund at Lake Tegernsee, Germany, August 12, 2016. REUTERS/Lukas Barth
1/5

By Alexander Hübner | FRANKFURT
A small cooperative bank in the Bavarian Alps is breaking a German taboo by charging wealthy clients to deposit their money following the European Central Bank's shift to negative rates.
Raiffeisenbank Gmund on the idyllic Tegernsee lake, home of wealthy actors and sports stars, will apply a custody charge of 0.4 percent to sight deposit accounts over 100,000 euros ($111,500.00) from September, a board member told Reuters. Such accounts allow depositors to withdraw their money at any time.
Several German banks have passed on the ECB's negative deposit rate to large commercial customers such as companies and institutional investors, but applying the charge to retail customers has been seen as a step too far.
"We have written to all large depositors and recommended that they think things over. If you don't create an incentive to change things then things don't change," Josef Paul said.
Cooperative direct bank Skatbank has applied negative rates on deposits over 500,000 euros since 2014, while ecological lender GLS bank, also part of the cooperative system, is asking customers for a "solidarity contribution" to help offset negative interest rates.
LAST RESORT
The ECB has resorted to a negative deposit rate to try to encourage banks to lend to stimulate Europe's economy, which is still suffering from the after-effects of the financial crisis. Banks, meanwhile, are seeking to encourage depositors to shift their cash out deposit accounts into other financial products.
Germany's cooperative banking association BVR said it did not expect other deposit takers in its network to follow Raiffeisenbank Gmund's lead.
"We don't believe retail banking will see widespread application of negative rates in Germany, not least because of the intense competitive situation in the German banking market," the BVR said.
Even in Gmund, the lion's share of customers are not affected. Paul's cooperative bank wrote to less than 140 clients, who together hold 40 million euros in deposits, about the new charge, which has already proved effective.
"Some of the customers we informed have opted for alternative investments and others moved their money to other banks," Paul said, adding that a widening of the charge to less wealthy customers is not planned.
Raiffeisenbank Gmund is one of the country's smaller cooperative lenders, with six branches and total assets of just 145 million euros. It has a substantial overhang of deposits, only part of which it manages to recycle as loans.
Bavaria's GVB cooperative banking association, with 269 member banks, backed Gmund's position.
"The ECB's extreme monetary policy is creating considerable costs for all banks," a GVB spokesman said.
"As a last resort, they also have to look at a means to be reimbursed for the cost of deposits," he said.
(Writing by Jonathan Gould; Editing by Alexander Smith)

China's data dump for July is horrible

China's data dump for July is horrible

STR / AFP / Getty Images
Chinese industrial output, fixed asset investment and retail sales figures for July — known as China’s “data dump” — has just been released, and all three figures have missed to the downside.
According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), industrial output grew by 6.0% over the past year, below the 6.1% pace expected and 6.2% level seen in June.
Retail sales also underwhelmed, increasing 10.2% from the levels of July 2015. The figure was well below the 10.5% pace expected, and the 10.6% level of June.
Between January to July, fixed asset investment grew by 8.1% compared to same period a year earlier, down on the 9.0% pace recorded in the first half of the year and expectations for a deceleration to 8.8%. It was the lowest level seen in more than 16 years in percentage terms.
Fixed-asset investment includes expenditure on infrastructure, property, machinery and other physical assets in non-rural areas.
Private sector investment rose by just 2.1% over the same period, down from 2.8% in the first six months of the year. In comparison, investment by the government grew by 21.8% between January to July compared to a year earlier, down on the 23.5% pace seen in the first half of the year.
According to Reuters, private investment accounts for about 60% of overall investment in China.
Sheng Laiyun, a spokesman at the NBS, said that the decline in private investment growth is not only related to a lack of market access to services and emerging industries, but also related to funding, policy implementation challenges.
Despite the continued deceleration, he suggested that the structure of investment is improving.
Though all three headline rates are still enormous compared to those seen in other major nations, by the lofty standards set by China in recent years, the figures are a disappointment.
They also followed weak trade and consumer price inflation figures for July released earlier in the week.
“The big concern is still sluggish investment,” Zhou Hao, a Singapore-based senior economist at Commerzbank, told Bloomberg following the release of the data. “The central bank will maintain an easing bias to support the real economy, and a cut in rates or the required reserve ratio this year cannot be entirely ruled out.”
The market reaction to the data has been nonchalant, keeping with the recent theme surrounding major Chinese data releases, with risk assets broadly unchanged from the levels seen prior to its release.
Follow Business Insider Australia on FacebookTwitter, and LinkedIn

The stock market just did something it hasn't done since December 31, 1999

The stock market just did something it hasn't done since December 31, 1999

Brace yourselves.
The stock market just did something that it hasn't done since December 31, 1999.
  • S&P 500: 2,185.79
  • Nasdaq: 5,228.40
  • Dow: 18,613.52
Bespoke Investment Group first pointed this out on Twitter.
Given the rarity of this occurrence, we decided to take a look at what happened the last time stocks hit such a major milestone.
Here we go:
  • The Dow topped out two weeks later on January 14, 2000.
  • The S&P 500 topped out on March 24, 2000.
  • The Nasdaq topped out on March 10, 2000.
For those who remember, this was the top of the dot-com bubble, which ended with a massive drawdown and economic recession. The Nasdaq lost 78% of its value before putting in its bottom, which was reached in October 2002.
Still, we must emphasize that the past does not predict the future. So, the fact that this happened in the early 2000s does not mean that this will happen today, nor does it mean that it won't happen. Either way, it's impossible to predict.
Rather, it's merely interesting to take a look at what happened when such a major milestone was reached.
More: S&P 500 NASDAQ Dow

Thursday, August 11, 2016

China just devalued its currency - Aug. 10, 2015,

China just devalued its currency

A clerk counts Chinese 100 yuan banknotes at a branch of China Construction Bank in Nantong, Jiangsu province December 2, 2014. REUTERS/China Daily  A clerk counting Chinese 100-yuan banknotes at a branch of China Construction Bank in Nantong. Thomson Reuters
China's central bank has just devalued its currency.
In a sign Beijing is anxious to make its exports more competitive as the nation’s economy slows, the People's Bank of China set the yuan midpoint at 6.2298 against the US dollar, 1.85% weaker than Monday’s closing level.
In statement posted on its website, the PBOC noted that effective Tuesday, the midpoint will be determined by market-maker quotes along with the closing level. It also said the move is a one-off depreciation, reflecting the midpoint reforms.
The size of China's trade surplus, along with the yuan's strength relative to other currencies, allows room to adjust the exchange rate, it added.
While the decision is being portrayed as part of ongoing market reform by the PBOC — it is the first time the market has been allowed to determine the yuan fixing rather than the bank itself — the move to weaken the yuan will be seen by many as an attempt to make Chinese firms more competitive given persistent weakness in the nation’s trade-exposed sectors.
Over the weekend China's government released trade data for July that came in below market expectations. From a year earlier exports declined by 8.3%, below the 2.8% increase of June and forecasts for a decline of 1.0%.
Given persistent disinflationary forces — consumer price inflation is running at 1.6%, well below the 4% target set by the PBOC, while in July producer prices fell at the fastest pace since October 2009 — the move may also help reduce these disinflationary pressures.
Upon the resumption of trade the dollar-yuan exchange rate has risen to 6.317, the highest level seen since September 18, 2012.
USD:CNYBusiness Insider Australia
The Australian dollar got crushed on the news, falling almost 1% in the minutes after the announcement.
Beijing has kept its currency stable while it has awaited inclusion in a special International Monetary Fund reserve asset known as "Special Drawing Rights," or SDRs, tied to the value of a basket of global currencies including the US dollar and the euro. Last week, the IMF said "significant" work was required before the yuan could be included in the SDR basket.
Now that it looks as if the yuan inclusion in the SDR is some time off, it has removed the near-term pressure for continued stability.
According to Sean Callow, senior FX strategist at Westpac, three key reasons most likely prompted the PBOC's move.
  • The possible delay of yuan being included in the IMF SDR basket
  • Weak trade and inflation data for July released last weekend; and
  • Impending monetary policy tightening in the US, something that would support the US dollar and, as a consequence, the yuan.
Callow told Business Insider:
It surely marks the end of the multi-month stability in USD/CNY that most assumed was linked to a potential IMF decision on including the yuan in the SDR in Q4. But with indications that the SDR decision could be postponed until deep into 2016, it appears that the July export numbers were just too weak to ignore.
It seems that with inflation muted and Fed tightening looming (potentially weakening the currencies of its export rivals), China will no longer tolerate the strong yuan that comes from a stable USD/CNY rate.
While the market reaction to the PBOC announcement suggests concern among investors, Callow believes the announcement "is a welcome step towards a market-determined exchange rate."
"A further step by China towards a more liberalized currency is by no means bad news," Callow said.
Read the original article on Business Insider Australia. Copyright 2015. Follow Business Insider Australia on Twitter.

728 X 90

336 x 280

300 X 250

320 X 100

300 X600