Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Bitcoin isn't money, a Florida judge rules

Bitcoin isn't money, a Florida judge rules

Bitcoin isn't money, a Florida judge has declared.
Circuit Court Judge Teresa Pooler has dismissed a money laundering case brought against a website developer, ruling that "nothing in our frame of references allows us to accurately define or describe Bitcoin."
It's a judgment that has been cheered by advocates for the digital currency (or token, or property, or whatever you want to call it), and may set a precedent for how it is dealt with in other legal cases.
(We first saw the case over at The Miami Herald, and you can read the full ruling below.)
First, the facts. Michell Espinoza was charged with money laundering and acting as an unauthorised money transmitter after selling bitcoin to undercover cops who found him through a bitcoin-selling website, Local Bitcoins. Over a series of meetings, Espinoza sold the undercover agent $2,000-worth of bitcoin, which the agent said would be used to purchase stolen credit card numbers. Espinoza was then arrested after a bogus fourth sale was arranged for $30,000-worth.
But Judge Pooler, in an order signed on July 22, has thrown these charges out.
She argues that the modern regulatory and frameworks we have do not allow people to "accurately define or describe Bitcoin." The digital currency runs in an entirely decentralised fashion, with no central bank, and can be extremely volatile.
"Bitcoin may have some attributes in common with what we commonly refer to as money, but differ in many important aspects," she wrote. "While bitcoin can be exchanged for items of value, they are not a commonly used means of exchange. They are accepted by some but not all merchants or service providers. The value of Bitcoin fluctuates wildly and has been estimated to be eighteen times greater than the U.S. dollar. Their high volatility is explained by scholars as due to their insufficient liquidity, the uncertainty of future value, and the lack of a stabilization mechanism. With such volatility they have a limited ability to act as a store of value, another important attribute of money."
Many bitcoin advocates are deeply political, viewing the technology as part of a new economic order that will ultimately disrupt traditional finance. So, on the surface of it, it's weird that they would celebrate a ruling that says bitcoin isn't money.
But had Judge Pooler ruled the other way, it could have been disastrous for businesses who work with and around the technology. If it was money, and those buying and selling it were acting as money transmitters without licenses, it would make vast swathes of the community (theoretically) illegal overnight.
Instead, the judge says it makes more sense to describe Bitcoin as property — and as such, Espinoza's actions don't equate to money laundering.
For example: If Tom sells Harry a car for cash, and Harry has said he intends to swap the car for drugs, that doesn't necessarily mean Tom is breaking the law, the argument goes.
"This court is unwilling to punish a man for selling his property to another," wrote Judge Pooler, "when his actions fall under a statute that is so vaguely written that even legal professionals have difficulty finding a singular meaning."
During the case, the defense called Barry University economics professor Charles Evans as an expert witness. He also made the case that bitcoin isn't money: "Basically, it’s poker chips that people are willing to buy from you," he testified, according to The Miami Herald.
For his time, Prof. Evans was paid $3,000 — in bitcoin.

Here's the full ruling:

Fiat Chrysler review shows U.S. sales figures were inflated: Automotive News

Fiat Chrysler review shows U.S. sales figures were inflated: Automotive News

The Fiat logo is pictured at a car dealership at Motor Village in Los Angeles, California October 13, 2014. REUTERS/Mario Anzuoni  The Fiat logo is pictured at a car dealership at Motor Village in Los Angeles Thomson Reuters
DETROIT (Reuters) - An internal review that Fiat Chrysler Automobiles conducted from mid-2015 found that U.S. sales figures were inflated by 5,000 to 6,000 vehicles, partly amid pressure to keep the company's year-over-year monthly sales streak alive, the Automotive News reported Monday, citing two sources at FCA.
An FCA spokeswoman declined to comment on Monday.
A week ago, FCA confirmed that U.S. regulators were investigating claims of inflated sales.
(Reporting by Bernie Woodall; Editing by Bernadette Baum)
Read the original article on Reuters. Copyright 2016. Follow Reuters on Twitter.

Deutsche Bank must face U.S. lawsuit over subprime disclosures

Deutsche Bank must face U.S. lawsuit over subprime disclosures

A logo of a branch of Germany's Deutsche Bank is seen in Cologne, Germany, July 18, 2016.  REUTERS/Wolfgang RattayA logo of a branch of Germany's Deutsche Bank is seen in CologneThomson Reuters
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A U.S. judge on Monday said Deutsche Bank AG must face part of a lawsuit claiming it defrauded investors who bought $5.4 billion of preferred securities by concealing its exposure to the fast-deteriorating subprime mortgage market.
U.S. District Judge Deborah Batts in Manhattan said the plaintiffs may pursue claims with respect to offerings in November 2007 and February 2008, but not with respect to offerings in May 2007, July 2007 and May 2008.
(Reporting by Jonathan Stempel in New York; Editing by Jonathan Oatis)
Read the original article on Reuters. Copyright 2016. Follow Reuters on Twitter.

The price tag on the biggest beer deal in the world just jumped thanks to Brexit

The price tag on the biggest beer deal in the world just jumped thanks to Brexit

Bartender Bar Beer Castle Draught Lager Cape Town South Africa SABMillerA bartender serving a beer produced by the brewing company SABMiller at a bar in Cape Town, South Africa, on September 16.REUTERS/Mike Hutchings
LONDON/BRUSSELS — Anheuser-Busch InBev raised its $100 billion-plus bid for its rival brewer SABMiller on Tuesday after a slide in the value of the pound following the British vote to exit the European Union made the offer less attractive for many investors, threatening to derail the deal.
SABMiller said its chairman had talked with his counterpart at AB InBev on Friday about the offer in the light of exchange-rate volatility and market movements.
The world's largest brewer will now offer 45 pounds a share for its nearest rival, an increase from the 44 pounds announced in October.
It has also tweaked the terms of an alternative share-and-cash structure designed for SABMiller's two largest shareholders, raising the cash element by 88 pence a share.
The offer values SABMiller at about 79 billion pounds, or $104 billion. In November, when the original bid was officially launched, it was worth about 70 billion pounds, or $106 billion based on exchange rates at the time.
AB InBev, which has hedged to cover the pounds initially required, said the revised terms were final.
SABMiller, which provisionally agreed the deal struck in October, said it would consult with shareholders, with a further announcement after that.
The takeover is still awaiting regulatory approval in China. SABMiller shareholders would expect to vote on it after that.
The changes come after numerous activist investors, such as Elliott, bought stakes in SABMiller and several shareholders voiced concerns at least week's annual general meeting that the cash deal was less attractive for many investors than before and, in any case, below the share-and-cash alternative.
The latter, designed exclusively for Altria and Colombia's Santo Domingo family who together own about 41% of SABMiller, had been worth less than the all-cash option last year but, with the fall of sterling and a rise of AB InBev shares, had surpassed it since.
The pound has dropped some 12% versus the dollar since the vote for a British exit from the EU, or Brexit. AB InBev shares are more than 35% higher than they were in October.
AB InBev said the share-and-cash offer value was now 51.14 pounds, above the 45 pounds of pure cash, but the new shares offered would have to be held for at least five years.
"I wouldn't like to second-guess what the activists were hoping for, but the increase is quite modest," one SABMiller shareholder told Reuters.
At 8:10 a.m. GMT, SABMiller shares were up 0.6% at 44.68 pounds. AB InBev's were up 0.3% at 115.1 euros.
(Additioanl reporting by Martinne Geller and Sinead Cruise; Editing by Mark Potter)
Read the original article on Reuters. Copyright 2016. Follow Reuters on Twitter.

MORGAN STANLEY: Oil could drop as low as $35 this year

MORGAN STANLEY: Oil could drop as low as $35 this year

oil storage fireREUTERS/Stringer
The oil industry is facing renewed headwinds, and prices are set to fall again in the second half of 2015, according to analysts at Morgan Stanley who say that they've had their "bearish bias" on the industry confirmed in recent weeks.
Oil prices have slipped in the last month and a half, with Brent crude oil, the international benchmark, dropping from more than $52 per barrel in early June to less than $45 now — a low not seen in more than two months.
On Tuesday, both benchmarks are falling once more, with US crude down 1% on the day so far.
These drops are set to continue, Morgan Stanley researchers led by Adam Longson explain in a note.
"We see worrisome trends for supply, demand, refined products, the macro and positioning that may all coalesce in late summer. Hence, our bearish bias," the Morgan Stanley report states. "We see a floor around the mid-30s given potential OPEC chatter and investor views on the cycle."
While Morgan Stanley doesn't say exactly where it sees oil bottoming this year, it seems safe to assume that "mid-30s" suggests a price of around $35 per barrel. That's a level not seen since April, as the chart below illustrates:
oil july 26 1Investing.com
Earlier in the year as prices began to rise, several major institutions turned bullish on oil, with Goldman Sachs — traditionally one of the most downbeat banks when it comes to oil — making the most notable volte face. At the time, in early May, Goldman cited a rebalancing of the supply and demand problem in the oil markets as the key reason for its change of heart.
One of the big drivers of this rebalancing was a series of huge, unconnected disruptions to production across the world in the past few months. During that time the Iraqi government decided to stop pumping oil to Turkey, Kuwaiti workers brought the country's oil industry to its knees with a strike, and a massive wildfire in Canada crippled the country's oil sands.
However, since May, when Goldman switched its stance, many of the disruptions in the industry have started to wane. As a result, fears about imbalances have returned, pushing prices down. Morgan Stanley fears that this will continue for some time, with the economic shock of Brexit and other macroeconomic risks making things even worse.
Here is the key extract from the note (emphasis ours):
"Non-OPEC ex. US supply remains resilient, which was masked by elevated maintenance and disruptions earlier this year. Supply is rising as these issues fade, and OPEC has ramped up seasonally. Refined product demand for the most profitable products (transportation) have decelerated modestly, but this has been obscured in total product demand by strong demand for LPG/NGLs.
"Plus, refiners ran too hard relative to this product demand level, flooding the market with product (esp gasoline). As a result, crude oil demand from refineries is underperforming product demand by a wide margin. Our revised below-consensus GDP outlook post-Brexit, the growing number of macro risks and longer positioning in oil markets only add to downside risks in 2H16."
As a result of all of these risks, Morgan Stanley doesn't see a rebalancing in the markets until at least the second half of next year. Here is the bank again:
"At a minimum, oversupply should return by August, reinforcing a return to the $30-50 oversupply pricing regime, before returning to a balanced market in 2H17. Thus, we remain below the curve over the coming four quarters with a base case price average of $40 for 4Q16 and 1Q17."
And here is how that looks on the chart:
Morgan stanley oil rebalancingMorgan Stanley

Chinese credit conditions are the loosest they've been in years

Chinese credit conditions are the loosest they've been in years

PLA motorcycle ChinaPeople's Liberation Army soldiers perform driving stunts at a naval base, celebrating the 19th anniversary of Hong Kong's handover to Chinese sovereignty from British rule, in Hong Kong July 1, 2016.Bobby Yip/Reuters
Credit conditions in China haven’t been this loose in over five years, helping to explain the robust GDP growth figure released by the government in mid-July.
The latest China Monetary Conditions Indicator (MCI), released by HSBC, came in 9.2 in June, marking the highest level seen since early 2010, the peak of China’s unprecedented infrastructure stimulus boom.
The MCI uses three components — real money supply, real interest rates and exchange rate movements — to measure the relative ease or tightness of monetary policy settings in China.
Essentially, the higher the MCI reading, the looser credit conditions are, and vice versa.
The chart below, supplied by HSBC, shows the movements in the MCI going back to 2005. As in 2009 following the global financial crisis, Chinese policymakers responded to the slowdown in the real economy in late 2015 by loosening credit conditions.
According to Julia Wang, Qu Hongbin and Aakanksha Bhat, members of HSBC’s economics team, the increase in the MCI in June was largely driven by a depreciation in the Chinese yuan.
“The contribution of the exchange rate sub-component rose to 3.8 points in June, from 1.9 points in May, as the RMB depreciated at a faster pace of 6.0% y-o-y vs 3.0% in May in REER [real effective exchange rate] terms,” wrote the trio in a research note released on Monday.
Like May, they also note that growth in the real money supply, or M2, made the largest contribution to loosening credit conditions in June.
“The real money supply sub-component added 4.4 points in June, unchanged from the contribution in May, as M2 grew by 11.8% y-o-y, unchanged from May. New lending, however, grew strongly by RMB1380bn, driven by a rebound in medium- to long-term corporate lending, most likely to finance infrastructure investment,” they said.
“Total social financing also came in better than expected, supported by stronger bank lending and stable corporate bond issuance.”
Lots of credit creation, or debt, in other words.
The final component of the MCI — real interest rates — contributed 1 point to the index, down from 1.6 in May, as a deceleration in consumer price inflation left real interest rates, adjusted for inflation, fractionally higher.
Despite the improvement in credit conditions seen in the first half of the year, Wang, Hongbin and Bhat, believe that risks to economic growth remain to the downside, suggesting that policymakers — particularly the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) — will be kept busy in the second half of the year.
“Private investment, which accounts for over 60% of total investment, has been slowing continuously and is now growing at 0%. This is a reflection of both weak demand and deteriorating business confidence within the private sector over the past few years,” they say.
“Both housing and manufacturing investment too have cooled and are likely to weigh on growth. Meanwhile, trade flows remain sluggish as a result of the persistent weakness in external demand.”
Given these risks, HSBC expects the PBOC will slash benchmark interest rates by 50bps in the second half of the year, along with reducing the bank reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by a whopping 3.5%.
It also expects additional fiscal spending from the government, along with a weaker Chinese yuan, forecasting that the USD/CNY will close out the year buying 6.9.
Read the original article on Business Insider Australia. Copyright 2016. Follow Business Insider Australia on Twitter.

Monday, July 25, 2016

One habit might be the reason why people don't find you likable

One habit might be the reason why people don't find you likable

bi graphics hard truths people aren't watchingSamantha Lee/Business Insider
Extremely likable people are very talented in conversation.
Yet their secret to success is less about what they do than what theydon't do.
The most likable people avoid the fastest conversation killer: Interrupting.
I've written about other secrets to being a better conversationalist, but not interrupting produces the quickest results.
My life quickly changed for the better when I stopped interrupting.
Daily conversations became enjoyable, negotiations became easier and my network grew faster than ever — as people were happy to make favorable introductions to their contacts.
Here's why interrupting is so toxic and how you can become more likable by breaking the habit.

View As: One Page Slides


It makes people defensive

When you interrupt someone, you tell them that your voice is more important than theirs. Naturally, they feel defensive and either fight back or become silent. It's a lose-lose situation.
I didn't realize how much I stifled other people in daily conversations. My interruptions made conversation impossible because the other person had to fight to voice their opinion or gave up trying because I wouldn't let them finish. 
If you want to be likable, make others feel good by not making them feel defensive.

It disrupts the flow of the conversation

If a conversation is like a dance, interrupting is like stepping on your partner's foot. It disrupts the entire rhythm and it's hard to recover.
Likable people avoid breaking the rhythm by not talking out of turn, asking an ill-timed question or finishing the other person's sentences. They give their partner the space to flow and improvise — supporting them with active listening and genuine interest.

It creates an unsafe environment

When you talk less and listen more, it creates a safe space for others to share. They will trust you because there's no threat of interruption. People will share their ideas, feelings and thoughts because you've proven yourself patient enough to listen.
Patient listening establishes an unspoken bond of trust between you and the other person— and you'll both benefit from a good conversation.

It makes them interrupt you in return

It's the golden rule at work. When I stopped interrupting others, they stopped interrupting me.
When you speak, you want to be heard completely. If I don't interrupt you, you won't feel like you didn't make your point - and interrupt me in return. You won't feel resentful, and you'll listen patiently when it is my turn to speak.

How to stop

First, pay attention to when you feel the urge to interrupt. Second, bite your tongue when you feel that urge. Don't let go until two seconds after the person's last word. This way you'll know they're done talking instead of taking a breath before their next sentence.
I know it sounds a little silly. But it works. It's how I kicked the habit.
If you need some motivation, consider this quote from Dale Carnegie's "How to Win Friends and Influence People," the bible on how to be likable:
"If you want to know how to make people shun you and laugh at you behind your back and even despise you, here is the recipe: Never listen to anyone for long. Talk incessantly about yourself. If you have an idea while the other person is talking, don't wait for him or her to finish: bust right in and interrupt in the middle of a sentence."
We live in a world inundated with interruptions. Not being one of them will make you stand out.
It may sound contradictory, but it's true: By talking less and listening more you will leave others with a lasting impression and you'll enjoy all the benefits of being a more likable person.
Avoid interrupting people and you'll enjoy more of the benefits of being a likable person.
Read the original article on Inc.. Copyright 2016. Follow Inc. on Twitter.

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