Wednesday, July 6, 2016

GOLDMAN SACHS: The pound could crash to $1.20

GOLDMAN SACHS: The pound could crash to $1.20

The UK's currency continued to fall in Asian trading overnight on Tuesday, hitting a low of $1.2798 and falling through the $1.30 level for the first time in 31 years.
But it gets worse: analysts from Goldman Sachs think it could still go much lower. The investment bank thinks we could see sterling break $1.20 before long.
First, here's the chart of sterling against the dollar overnight:GBPUSDInvesting
Now, back to Goldman. Carney's warning on Tuesday that financial risks following Brexit "have begun to crystallize" is at the heart of the Goldman Sachs $1.20 call. More monetary easing could be on the way for the UK, the bank thinks, as the Bank of England battles to contain the financial and economic fallout of the referendum.
Here's what analysts Silvia Ardegna, Robin Brooks, and Michael Cahill had to say:
"Following the Brexit surprise, we revised our Sterling forecasts weaker, but – amid lots of doomsday scenarios for the Pound – resisted the temptation to forecast a free-fall. Now that markets have settled somewhat, we are switching to forecast a second leg of weakness for the Pound, as the Bank of England’s policy response drives the currency weaker."
"Next week, we expect the BoE to provide a further indication of the scope of the conventional and unconventional monetary policy measures we expect. This will be the catalyst for a further downward move in Sterling."
On Tuesday the Bank of England began to act, relaxing capital rules to give banks more breathing room. The move freed up £5.7 billion ($7.4 billion) of capital, "raising banks' capacity for lending to UK households and businesses by up to £150 billion," according to the central bank.

Tuesday, July 5, 2016

Britain is dragging the eurozone into an impending crash — and these stats come from *before* the Brexit vote

Britain is dragging the eurozone into an impending crash — and these stats come from *before* the Brexit vote

motorbike crash bike accidentRobert Cianflone/Getty Images
Growth in the eurozone is at its weakest level in nearly two years — and it is mainly Britain's fault,according to the latest PMI data released by Markit on Tuesday morning.
On top of that, Britain's vote to leave the European Union could bring any recovery to a standstill and send the eurozone into a new economic crash.
Markit's PMI reading for June showed that the continent's composite data — a mix of both services and manufacturing — hit 53.1 in June, up from the flash estimate but flat from May's reading, a sign that things in the eurozone are struggling to pick up.
Britain's industries suffered their worst quarter in more than three years after the reading came in at 52.3 for June from 53.5 the previous month.
UK services PMI was particularly bad:
MARKITMarkit
Services are the bulk of the UK economy, and that reading was taken before Britain's vote in June to leave the EU. As a result, things are likely to get substantially worse in next month's reading.
The eurozone-wide reading for the services sector came in a 52.8, again above the flash reading, which was 52.4. It was, however, lower than the 53.3 reading in May, suggesting that the sector is going backward.
The purchasing managers index, or PMI, figures from Markit are given as a number between 0 and 100. Anything above 50 signals growth, while anything below means a contraction in activity — so the higher the better.
It was not just the eurozone as a whole that got a reading on the state of industry. All of the largest individual economies in the single currency area got a breakout reading for their services sector, and they were a mixed bag.
Here is a look at the services sector in some of the eurozone's biggest economies:
  • Germany — 53.7, substantially lower than the 55.2 reading in May. June's number was a 13-month low.
  • France — A fall from 51.6 in May to 49.9 in June. That means that France's service sector is back in contraction.
  • Italy — 51.9, a return to growth following May's reading of 49.8.
  • Spain — 56, up from 55.4 last month. That coincided with the fastest employment growth in almost nine years.
Here is Markit's chart showing the broad trend in eurozone PMI data:
Screen Shot 2016 07 05 at 09.24.43Markit
And here is what Markit's chief economist, Chris Williamson, had to say about the data:
"The lack of any sign that the upturn is picking up speed will worry policymakers, especially as 'Brexit' uncertainty looks likely to subdue growth in coming months. All of the manufacturing responses and 90% of the service sector replies for June were received prior to the UK's EU referendum result, so any potential 'Brexit' impact is yet to appear.
"France remained a key concern, slipping back into decline in June as Germany once again reported solid growth and upturns gathered pace in both Italy and Spain, the latter shrugging off worries about the recent political stalemate."
ukpmijuneMarkit

Warren Buffett has asked the Fed if he can own more than 10% of Wells Fargo

Warren Buffett has asked the Fed if he can own more than 10% of Wells Fargo

Warren BuffettBillionaire investor Warren Buffett. Bill Pugliano/Getty Images
Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway now own more than 10% of America's biggest bank.
The famed investor applied to the Federal Reserve on Friday to increase his firm's stake in Wells Fargo above 10%, according to a filing obtained by Business Insider.
Hitting the 10% level automatically requires a disclosure from the investor in order to hold such a large stake.
The filing indicates that Buffett's stake first passed the threshold on March 1 of this year. As of that point Berkshire owned 10.012% of the bank, which is America's largest based on market cap, triggering the review.
In the application, Berkshire said that it did not buy new shares, but hit the threshold due to the buyback program of Wells.
"Berkshire's purchases of Wells Fargo shares of common stock were made for long-term investment purposes," said the filing.
"Berkshire's acquisitions constituted less than 10% of the outstanding shares prior to share repurchases that were effected by Wells Fargo."
Going forward, the filing also indicated that Buffett has no plans at the moment to buy more shares of the bank, but has his eye on the stock nonetheless.
"Berkshire does not have any present intention to acquire additional shares of common stock of Wells Fargo," said the filing. "However, Berkshire routinely assesses market conditions and may decide to purchase additional shares of common stock of Wells Fargo based on its evaluation of the investment opportunity presented by such purchases."
The filing states that Buffett and Berkshire have not purchased shares of Wells since October 21, 2015. He currently holds 506,308,470 shares of the bank, according to the filing.
Additionally, the filing said that Buffett and Berkshire have no plans to alter the business strategy of Wells Fargo.
Wells Fargo is among Buffett's largest investments, called the "Big Four" stocks, along with IBM, Coca-Cola, and American Express. According to Bloomberg, his investment in Wells is worth $23 billion as of the stock's closing price on Friday.

The pound is getting smoked after the Bank of England's stark warning

The pound is getting smoked after the Bank of England's stark warning

The pound is tumbling again and has fallen to another 31-year low, after the Bank of England warned on Tuesday that "the current outlook for UK financial stability is challenging."
Sterling fell by 1% immediately after Britain's central bank said in its Financial Stability Report that the UK's referendum on EU membership remains "the most significant near-term domestic risks to financial stability."
It has continued to fall since the release, and just before 2:00 p.m. BST (9:00 a.m. ET) is lower by 1.6% to $1.3077, another fresh low.
pound july 5 lunchtimeInvesting.com
Sterling has now stretched well below the previous low of $1.3151 against the US dollar it hit in London’s early trade — its lowest level since September 1985. It is now substantially below the level it reached in the hours after the result of the British referendum on the European Union.
Growth in the eurozone is at its weakest level in nearly two years— and it is mainly Britain's fault,  according to the latest PMI data released by Markit on Tuesday morning.
Markit's PMI reading for June showed that the continent's composite data — a mix of both services and manufacturing — hit 53.1 in June, up from the flash estimate, but flat from May's reading, a sign that things in the eurozone are struggling to pick up. 
Britain's industry suffered its worst quarter in more than three years after the reading came in at  52.3 for June from 53.5 the previous month.
Data yesterday showed the British construction industry turned in its worst performance since 2009. The Markit / CIPS construction PMI survey turned in a reading of 46.0, when a print just above 50 was expected. Like all PMI surveys, a reading above 50 indicates a sector in expansion, while a number below that level indicates contraction, so the miss was severe.
Read the original article on Business Insider Australia. Copyright 2016. Follow Business Insider Australia on Twitter.

The Bank of England's doom-laden predictions are beginning to come true

The Bank of England's doom-laden predictions are beginning to come true

The governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney gives a press conference, his first since the leave result of the European Union referendum, at the Bank of England in the City of London, Britain Thursday, June 30, 2016.Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor. REUTERS/Matt Dunham/Pool
"The current outlook for UK financial stability is challenging," the Bank of England warned on Tuesday.
The central bank's Financial Policy Committee has released its biannual financial stability reportlooking at the financial health of Britain and assessing any changes to the outlook since the most recent report.
The TLDR is: Things look bad, and it is mostly because of the European Union referendum.
The report says Britain's referendum on its EU membership remains "the most significant near-term domestic risks to financial stability."
The Bank of England says that many of the potential risks it had identified in the run-up to the referendum had "begun to crystallise." In other words, the doom-laden predictions are beginning to come true.
The central bank says it is "closely monitoring" the situation and "stands ready to take actions that will ensure that capital and liquidity buffers can be drawn on, as needed, to support the supply of credit and in support of market functioning."
Regulation has been relaxed to give banks more breathing room, with the capital buffer — the amount of cash or readily sellable assets on hand — reduced to 0% of UK exposure from 0.5%. This should free up £5.7 billion ($7.4 billion), "raising banks' capacity for lending to UK households and businesses by up to £150 billion."
The main economic assessment was done in March, well before the referendum, but the central bank identifies several key ways in which the result could influence stability. The report also reflects on some of the most notable changes since the referendum, such as bank shares tanking 20% and the pound cratering against the dollar.
Here are the key risks the vote for a British exit from the EU, or Brexit, poses to financial stability, as per the BOE:
  • Financing of the UK's large current account deficit, which relied on continuing material inflows of portfolio and foreign direct investment;
  • The UK commercial real estate (CRE) market, which had experienced particularly strong inflows of capital from overseas and where valuations in some segments of the market had become stretched;
  • The high level of UK household indebtedness, the vulnerability to higher unemployment and borrowing costs of the capacity of some households to service debts, and the potential for buy-to-let investors to behave procyclically, amplifying movements in the housing market;
  • Subdued growth in the global economy, including the euro area, which could be exacerbated by a prolonged period of heightened uncertainty; and
  • Fragilities in financial market functioning, which could be tested during a period of elevated market activity and volatility.
It is not hard to see how many of this risks are "crystalizing" into realities. On the current account deficit, the pound has fallen to a 30-year-low against the dollar and Britain's credit rating has been marked down, making it more expensive to borrow.
An estimated £650 million of commercial property deals in London alone have fallen through since the referendum, according to the Financial Times. Standard Life's UK property fund also had to freeze withdrawals after it was overwhelmed by people trying to pull money out.
Last November's stability report from the central bank signalled an improving global economy, but fears of increasing cyberattacks and a faltering Asian economy affected the outlook. July's report was the first report since Britain opted for a Brexit. Mark Carney, the Bank of England governor, has previously warned that a Leave vote could tip the UK into recession.
Carney will answer questions on the report from the press at 11 a.m. BST (6 a.m. ET). Business Insider reporter Will Martin will be reporting from Threadneedle Street.
The governor reassured markets shortly after the Brexit vote that the UK's central bank was ready to inject £250 billion of liquidity to keep everything on an even keel. Many market watchers expect Carney to outline in his press conference more details as to how he will do this.
Connor Campbell, a financial analyst at SpreadEx, says in an emailed statement Tuesday morning: "Focus will likely more be on Mark Carney's post-report speech than the financial stability results themselves, with some thinking that the Bank of England chief could use this opportunity to announce measures that relax the amount of capital banks have to hold."
Michael van Dulken, head of research at Accendo Markets, agrees, saying he expects "details about how it plans to ease the capital burden on banks, to keep financing alive for businesses and households and the economic consumer and business confidence ball up in the air."

Monday, July 4, 2016

Robots are coming to Asia to help people save for retirement

Robots are coming to Asia to help people save for retirement

A "Nao" humanoid robot, that offers basic service information, moves at MUFG branch in Tokyo Thomson Reuters
Robo-advisors are making a rapid push into Asia.
When we last wrote about robo-advisors – which are online wealth management services that use mathematical formulas to develop, maintain and rebalance your investment portfolio – in January, there were only a handful of Asian robo-advisor firms. This included Hong Kong’s 8Now! and Singapore-based private banker Infinity Partners. However, both of those companies serve narrow client bases. 8Now! only works with wealthy investors in Hong Kong and Japan, and Infinity mostly serves U.S. expats in the region.
Six months ago, Asia’s smaller retail investors didn’t have many options. But that’s starting to change.
Smartly, a Singapore-based robo-advisor, expects to launch next month. The start-up will allow for investments of as little as $50. It’s also developing an educational platform to help clients gain a better understanding of investing.
Smartly promises low fees compared to the 2-3 percent traditional advisors in Asia normally charge: 1 percent annually for accounts under $10,000; 0.7 percent for $10,000-$100,000 accounts; and 0.5 percent for $100,000-plus.
Robo-advisors can charge fees this low in part because they use mathematical formulas called algorithms—not costly, biased, and emotionally driven human advisors—to manage your portfolio. Also, robo-advisors often allocate money to ETFs, which generally have much lower fees than the investment funds that traditional advisors in Asia normally use.
(Please see our previous article on robo-advisors for a more detailed explanation of how they work.)
Robo-advisory options for Asian businesses are also growing. Bambu, a business-to-business (B2B) robo-advisor, launched in Singapore in April. It’s partnering with global giants like data company Thomson Reuters to offer its robo-advisor services to businesses of every size and type – even if they have smaller accounts than traditional wealth managers usually accept.
The recent growth in Asia is impressive. But it may be just a taste of what’s to come, if what’s been happening in the U.S. and Europe is any indication.
File photo of a BlackRock building in New York June 12, 2009. REUTERS/Eric ThayerFile photo of a BlackRock building in New York Thomson Reuters
Giant investment firms like Blackrock Inc. (the world’s biggest investment management company), Invesco, Goldman Sachs and others have all recently spent hundreds of millions of dollars to buy existing robo-advisor companies in the U.S.
Other major banks and investment houses are opting to develop their own online services in-house. Morgan Stanley and Bank of America are designing their own technologies, and German banking giant Deutsche Bank introduced its own robo-advisory in December.
So far, the U.S. and Europe have dominated the robo-advisory space. That makes sense… the 2007-09 financial crisis hit these regions much harder than it hit Asia. And the fallout opened up opportunities for innovative, technology-driven solutions. The crisis also exposed the excessively high fees U.S. and European banks and brokerages charge.
While the rules for setting up an investment advisory company are similar between U.S. states, as well as member countries of the Eurozone, they can vastly differ from one Asian country to the next. So in Hong Kong, for instance, regulations still require some degree of human involvement when providing wealth management services. This has limited Asia’s development of automated investment services compared to the west.
Younger retail investors – who already manage the rest of their financial lives online – have driven a growing interest in robo-advisors. But they are also catching on with older generations. They all like the fact that they can invest smaller amounts than traditional asset managers normally require and that there are no biased investment decisions. And, as mentioned, the fees are much lower. Lower fees make a big difference over time.
Cumulative feesTruewealth Publishing
Traditional financial advisors are increasingly concerned about the low fees robo-advisors can charge. That’s why they’re developing their own automated platforms or strategically acquiring robo-advisor “fintechs.” It means they can continue to compete. And it attracts new retail investors, creating more opportunities to form traditional wealth management relationships down the line… and ultimately, more opportunities to charge heftier fees.
Some firms are even offering “hybrid” services: robo-advisories with representatives available to answer questions, for customers who want some human interaction in the investing process.
Given the head start U.S. and European companies have in this space, many Asian robo-advisories will likely partner with large foreign financial institutions to get off the ground. For Asia’s investors, that could mean swift growth over the next few months.
Blackrock Inc. is looking to enter the Asian robo-advisory market. Kevin Hardy, the head of BlackRock Singapore, says the company is in talks with “organisations that are looking to establish a footprint in the region using robo-advisory technology.”
Link Pacific Advisors also sees the growth potential for robo-advisors in Asia. The firm aims to connect high-quality fintech companies from overseas with clients and strategic partners in the region. Justin Balogh, Link Pacific’s representative director, thinks Asia’s wealth management opportunities are the fastest-growing in the world.
For now, the U.S. and Europe still dominate the robo-advisory industry, both in terms of the number of investment firms and amount of assets under management. But Asia is picking up speed. Five of the six largest internet companies in Asia have now entered the wealth management market.
Hong Kong’s Tencent, for example, is considering offering a wealth management service through its popular WeChat app. Capitalising on the robo-advisor boom is the next logical step for Tencent and other companies like it.
With start-ups like Smartly catering to entry-level retail investors and big hitters like Blackrock showing interest in the Asian market, robo-advisors are set to play an increasingly critical role in Asia’s wealth management industry.
As more robo-advisories move into Asian markets, more of the region’s investors will see the substantial difference one or two percentage points makes in the fees they have to pay. This could lead to another string of mergers, acquisitions and new partnerships like those happening in the U.S. and Europe right now.
While the robots haven’t taken over Asia quite yet, they are certainly on their way. And this is good news for investors.
Read the original article on Truewealth Publishing. Sign up here to receive the Truewealth Asian Investment Daily, a free daily e-letter that will help you make better investment decisions, through independent and actionable insight on investing, finance and economics, in Asia and the world. Copyright 2016. Follow Truewealth Publishing on Twitter.

One chart shows how wildly uncertain Britain's economic future is after Brexit

One chart shows how wildly uncertain Britain's economic future is after Brexit

Burning Man 2015 question markAly Weisman/Business Insider
Britain's political and economic landscape is now more uncertain than in has been in more than 20 years, and what happens next is anyone's guess, according to the latest research from economists at Morgan Stanley.
In the bank's weekly note on UK economics and strategy note, economists led by Jacob Nell point out that the crazy instability and uncertainty surrounding pretty much everything in the UK right now has led to economic policy being more uncertain than at any point in more than two decades.
With a change of Prime Minister to be imminently declared, no real indication of when negotiations about the UK's exit from the EU will begin, and a general climate of uncertainty in the country, Morgan Stanley notes that no one is really clear about which way economic policy will go, causing uncertainty around the economy to surge.
One thing making economic policy uncertainty even greater is the fact that there will almost certainly be a new Chancellor of the Exchequer in the next couple of months. George Osborne — who was among the staunchest backers of the Remain campaign — will be highly unlikely to keep his position when a new Conservative PM, be it Theresa May, Michael Gove, Andrea Leadsom, Stephen Crabb, or Liam Fox.
Osborne has been chancellor for more than five years and steered the UK economy through the post-financial crisis recovery, although he has been criticised for failing to reduce the UK's budget deficit as quickly as promised. Since the Brexit vote, Osborne has scrapped that policy, saying that the government needs to be "realistic" about deficit reduction in the post-Brexit world. On Monday, Osborne announced that he plans to cut UK corporation tax from 20% to 15%.
Here is the chart from Morgan Stanley showing the crazy uncertainty in UK economic policy right now:
ms economic policy uncertaintyMorgan Stanley
And here is Morgan Stanley's key quote (emphasis ours):
"We see multiple sources of uncertainty after the vote to leave, which underpin a wide span of possible outcomes. The political circumstances after the vote in particular have turned out to be very challenging, including the Prime Minister resigning, unexpected developments in the Conservative leadership campaign, a standoff between the leader of the Labour Party and many Labour Party MPs, and a fresh push for Scottish independence from the Scottish nationalists."
"Against this background, Carney argued in his speech that there has been a particularly high level of "policy uncertainty" in the UK this year. We think this implies a case for early action as a signal of intent, to reinforce confidence in policy frameworks, reduce uncertainty and support adjustment."
Since Morgan Stanley published its research, political uncertainty has increased even more, with the shock resignation of UKIP leader Nigel Farage at a press conference on Monday morning.
The uncertainty surrounding economic policy from a governmental level, Morgan Stanley argues, will lead the Bank of England to do as governor Mark Carney suggested late last week, and cut interest rates for the first time since 2009, with the bank arguing for a cut to as low as 0.1%. Here is the key quote:
"The MPC has been reluctant to cut rates to negative levels, on the grounds that they see negative rates as a risk to financial stability,and unsustainable for an extended period of time,and therefore not fully credible.We think that they would prefer to see policy rate staying modestly positive, and we therefore see 10 bp as the effective floor for policy rates."

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