The man who accurately predicted 4 market crashes told us 3 more dates to worry about this year

• Lianna Brinded
 

• Jun. 18, 2016, 7:30 AM
• 99,877
 
• 28
 

Thomas Cole, The Course of Empire

The man who accurately predicted four market crashes to the exact date each time has told Business Insider about three more dates to worry about.

Sandy Jadeja is a technical analyst and chief market strategist at Core Spreads.

Technical analysts look at charts to pinpoint patterns in various markets and asset classes. From that, they forecast which direction prices are likely to move.

They can't tell you the reasons why there will be a big market movement, only that there is going to be one.

He now warns that the following dates spell trouble for the Dow Jones in the US that could spread to other markets.

1. Between August 26 and August 30, 2016.

2. September 26, 2016.

3. October 20, 2016.

"We have interesting times ahead of us. We are dealing with issues on so many levels from economic uncertainty in the financial markets, including currencies and commodities as well as the rising house prices we have seen," said Jadeja in an interview.

"I believe that using the information we have and embracing the tools and technology we have access to right now that we could use these to our advantage to prepare and protect as well as prepare and prosper."

So what's his secret?

The spot-on track record

Sandy Jadeja is a technical analyst. Sandy Jadeja

It is worth revisiting his track record.

In 2005, he said he warned 2,000 investors at a speaking event in Shanghai, China, a talk in New York at a Traders Expo, as well as banks and investment houses at a speaking event in Dubai about the property market crash - eight weeks before it happened.

More recently, on July 31, 2015, before flying to Singapore to speak at a conference of more than 5,000 people, Jadeja warned investors on CNBC that something big would happen on August 18, and to "be prepared to bank profits and stand aside." There was then a flash crash where the Dow Jones Index lost 2,198 points (-12.5%) in just four trading days.

After that successful prediction, Jadeja told CNBC on August 28, 2015, that "there would be a further decline commencing on September 14 or 17, 2015. Then, yet again, the Dow Jones fell 991 points (-5.8%) over eight trading days.

And then on October 1, 2015, and in November, he told CNBC again that, "January 4, 2016 would face a bearish mood and see the markets fall despite the bullish consensus on Wall Street." On that date, US markets and other global indexes fell sharply, where the Dow Jones shaved off 1955 points (-11.2%) over 11 trading days.

Sandy Jadeja

How he predicts what the markets are going to do

Technical analysts use historical charts to spot patterns in the markets. They cannot tell you what event will move the markets. They can only tell you when a shift is likely to happen.

And we are in for some big bumps on the road to 2018, Jadeja said.

"We are currently in a very dangerous time zone between 2011 until 2018. This is an 84-year cycle [called the 'Time Cycle'] and the previous cycle appeared during 1928 until 1934 where the Great Depression took place," he said.

Take a look at this chart:

Sandy Jadeja/Signal Pro

Now take a look at the chart that mirrors that period:

Sandy Jadeja/Signal Pro

"This exact same cycle is what we are in right now. And so I am worried that we could see a potential threat to our economy in the current 'Time Cycle' we are witnessing right now," said Jadeja.

"We have a situation. This lasts until 2018 for this particular cycle. And my worry is that we could see sudden sharp declines take place and tripping investors if they are not prepared," he said.

Jadeja is convinced that the sudden declines will take place on three dates - between August 26 and August 30, September 26, and October 20, 2016 - in this "time cycle."

But while it sounds bad, at least investors can take the market warnings on board and prepare themselves.

"We can use market data to help us forecast price targets and when we see price and time meet together there is a stronger than average potential for major turns in global markets," he said.

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Africa's most important currency has lost 30% in a single day

• Will Martin
 

• 6h
• 5,359
 
• 2
 

Dean Treml/Red Bull via Getty Images

The Nigerian naira fell off a cliff on Monday morning after the Central Bank of Nigeria removed the currency's peg to the dollar.

The move was an attempt to devalue it in response to tumbling oil prices.

As trading opened for the day, the naira dropped more than 30.85% against the greenback, hitting 260 naira per dollar.

The removal of the naira's peg against the dollar was announced on Wednesday last week, after long-term speculation about whether or not it may happen.

The CBON said that it would move to a "purely market-driven" currency system to help Africa's biggest economy cope with the effects of the global oil price slump in the past couple of years. Prior to the peg being taken away, the naira broadly traded at around 197 per $1.

Here is the chart showing the naira's move, which sent the dollar soaring:

Investing.com

In the short-term, the move was expected to be painful, but a 30% fall is probably a bigger move downwards than had been expected. Long-term however, the naira floating freely will likely be a net positive to the country's economy.

"Over the long-run, a weaker currency will help Nigeria's economy by encouraging import substitution and attracting foreign investors, who have shunned the country for fear of a devaluation," wrote Capital Economics' Africa economist John Ashbourne in a note sent to clients last week.

"This will release a pressure valve for the economy. We see the economy beginning to thaw and green shoots emerge possibly as soon as a year from now. Before then, we believe the macro picture will deteriorate," Yvonne Mhango, an analyst at Renaissance Capital told Bloomberg.>

Analysts had long been arguing that Nigeria would eventually have to capitulate and devalue its currency given that the government's controversial agenda of currency and price controls created a bunch of economic stresses in Africa's largest economy. Most recently, inflation soared to a six-year high. As a result, last Wednesday's announcement was widely expected.

Devaluing the naira is a step towards helping to fix Nigeria's stalling economy, but as my colleague Elena Holodny pointed out last week, it won't solve all its problems. The country saw its economy shrink by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2016, and continues to suffer turmoil when it comes to fuel shortages, along with disruption to the oil industry because of a rebel group known as the Niger Delta Avengers. The country faces a "full-blown economic crisis" Capital Economics' Ashbourne said in May.

Despite these issues, rating agency Moody's sees the move as a net positive for Nigeria, saying in a report: "A functioning flexible exchange rate will reduce dollar liquidity shortages and associated risks of banks failing to meet their dollar liabilities when due or requiring the Central Bank of Nigeria to impose capital controls. It also will allow banks to expand their trade business, supporting their fee income and profitability."

Japanese exports tumbled in May, particularly to China

DAVID SCUTT 

JUN 20, 2016, 10:26 AM   

Photo by Mark Kolbe/Getty Images

Japanese trade data for May has missed expectations, led by a steep contraction in the value of exports to China.

According to the Japanese government, the value of exports fell by 11.3% in the 12 months to May, slightly undershooting forecasts for a smaller contraction of 10.4%.

The annual decline was larger than the 10.1% fall seen in April, and the steepest recorded since January this year.

By destination, exports to China — the nation’s largest trading partner — tumbled by 14.9%, well below the 7.6% decline seen in the year to April.

As a consequence, the value of exports to Asia slid by 13% over the same period, again steeper than the 11.1% contraction recorded previously.

Exports to the US fell by 10.7% compared to May 2015, a slight improvement on the 11.8% decline registered in April.

Recent strength in the Japanese yen, making Japanese goods and services less competitive in offshore markets, along with tepid economic growth in the global economy, likely contributed to the weakness seen in May.

On the other side of the ledger, the value of imports also declined, although at a far slower pace than seen in April.

According to the government, imports dipped by 13.8% — in line with forecasts — but far narrower than the 23.3% contraction recorded in the 12 months to April.

As a result of the miss on exports, the nation’s trade balance swung back to deficit, coming in at 40.7 billion yen compared to a surplus of 823.5 billion yen in April.

It was below expectations for a surplus of 40 billion yen.

India central bank chief Rajan says not seeking second term

• Reuters

• Jun. 18, 2016, 7:43 AM
• 160

RBI Governor Rajan attends a news conference after their bimonthly monetary policy review in Mumbai Thomson Reuters

MUMBAI (Reuters) - Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan will return to academia when his current term ends on Sept. 4, he said in a message to central bank staff on Saturday.

The RBI posted Rajan's message on its website.

(Reporting by Devidutta Tripathy and Suvashree Dey Choudhury; Editing by Alexander Smith)

Read the original article onReuters. Copyright 2016. Follow Reuters on Twitter.

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The pound is on track for one of the biggest jumps against the dollar in the last decade

• Oscar Williams-Grut
 

• 24m
• 1,971

The pound is jumping like Greg Rutherford at the Olympics.Reuters/Phil Noble

Sterling is on track for its biggest third biggest daily gain against the dollar in the last 10 years, after several polls over the weekend showed the campaign to leave the EU losing momentum and the Remain camp gaining support with just days until the referendum.

A poll for the Mail on Sunday by Survation gave the In campaign 45% of the vote against 42% for Out. A separate poll for the Sunday Times by YouGov had Remain at 44% to Leave's 43%, and an Opinium poll for the Observer put the two sides neck and neck at 44%.

The results are a stark contrast to multiple polls last week that gave the Leave camp as much as a 6 point lead, leading to fears that Britain was hurtling towards a "Brexit" - a British exit from the European Union. That sent the pound and British stocks tumbling.

The pound is enjoying a relief rally on Monday after the polling swing. Sterling is up 2.41% against the dollar to 1.4705 at 4.10 p.m. BST (1.10 a.m. ET). If it hangs on to the gains the pound will have its best session since October 2008, when it jumped 2.52% in a day. The Financial Times reports that this will make it the third biggest daily jump against the dollar in the last 10 years.Investing.com

The pound is also up 2.64% against the Japanese Yen and the Euro is diving against the pound, down 1.85% to 0.7707.

Britain will go to the polls to vote on EU membership on Thursday, June 23. HSBC warns clients in a note on Monday that if the poll swing turns out to be unfounded and a Brexit does happen the pound could fall as much as 15% against the dollar amid "a global risk-off move in markets."

SEE ALSO: The fear of Brexit is making the pound do something it has never done before

DON'T MISS: BREXIT FEAR: Investors sold more than $1 billion worth of UK stocks in the last week alone

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State of Surveillance (Video)

State of Surveillance

2016

As you read this, your government could be thumbing through your contacts, reviewing your text messages and uploading the photos you have stored on your phone without your knowledge. This is the new reality in a post-9/11 age. Most citizens around the globe were first made aware of this troubling phenomenon through the controversial actions of whistleblower Edward Snowden. In their new documentary titled State of Surveillance, VICE travels to Russia, where Snowden currently lives safe from persecution by the United States, to probe the depths of his particular area of expertise.

As discussed in the early section of the film, the most recent example of the U.S. government's dominance over privately owned digital devices was made clear in the aftermath of the San Bernadino terrorist shootings. After haggling with Apple over a means of gaining access to the perpetrator's phone, the government managed to hack it on their own. But that's a capability they've had all along, claims Snowden.

At a table sitting across from VICE host Shane Smith, Snowden performs a dissection of a common cellular phone - the kind used by many billions of people all over the world. He illustrates how the innards of every phone can act as pathways through which institutions can track your every move.

The intrusion doesn't stop with your cell phone or laptop device. Drone surveillance - the spying technology which allows organizations like the CIA to keep watch on suspected terrorist activities in countries like Iraq and Afghanistan - are now being employed by the U.S. government on their own home soil. In many cases, these drones are not being used to detect potential terrorist threats, but rather citizen-led protests such as the one which recently occurred in Ferguson, Missouri. According to Snowden and other figures interviewed in the film, missions like these are driven by the government's desire to suppress and deter the will and the rights of their people.

Apathy and ignorance will only breed a further deterioration of our rights to privacy. State of Surveillance understands that insidious security breaches like these will continue to occur until the public becomes more aware and vocal in their disapproval.

The new 'sick man' of Europe

• Elena Holodny
 

• 22h
• 41,450
 
• 50

Finland's hockey fans at the quarterfinal match against Norway at the Ice Hockey World Championships in Bratislava, Slovakia, in 2011.David W Cerny/Reuters

Step aside, Greece.

According to BMI Research, Europe has a new "sick man": Finland.

The country in northern Europe could be looking at a muggy economic future as its major industries continue to struggle and its demographic situation works against long-term growth.

"Finland is set for years of economic stagnation, and will be one of the worst performing eurozone economies in growth terms," the BMI Research team argued in a recent report.

"Structural reforms being implemented by the government will be insufficient to offset the decline of key industries, an uncompetitive export base and labour market rigidities."

The team believes that the country's real gross-domestic-product growth will log an average of only 0.9% over the next decade, far below the pre-financial-crisis average of 4.0% from 1997 to 2007.

Moreover, they think average wages will fall modestly as the country works to "regain competitiveness via a painful internal devaluation."

As for what's ailing Finland, here's an abbreviated rundown:

• The country's economy is having a hard time bouncing back from its dying paper industryand Nokia's slump. Notably, Nokia alone was responsible for a stunning 24% of Finnish real GDP growth from 1997 to 2007, according to data cited by BMI Research.
• The country' demographics - which, much like the rest of Europe include a shrinking working-age population and a growing aging population - will most likely drag down long-term growth.
• Finland uses the euro, which means it can't adjust fiscal or monetary policy to its specific needs.

Notably, the government's labor-market reforms - which aim to cut worker benefits - have, unsurprisingly, not been a huge crowd-pleaser.

Plus, they "will likely increase unemployment and restrict wage growth in the coming years, implying that private consumption will be subdued," the BMI Research team argued.

Finland's demographic profile. National Sources/BMI Research

Of course, it's worth nothing that Finland is already one of the most developed, wealthiest in terms of GDP per capita, and least corrupt countries in the world. Plus, it's one of the strongest countries when it comes to research and development.

So, it's not that its economy will totally crater in on itself - more that living standards might not tremendously improve in the near future.

But, notably, that's exactly what could have some implications further down the road.

"Stagnating improvements to living standards will continue boosting a growing eurosceptic movement in Finland, even if an exit from the currency union is highly unlikely at any stage over the next decade," the team said.

SEE ALSO: This is Saudi Arabia's "Achilles' heel"

Crude oil rises for first time in seven days

• Reuters

• 15h
• 151
 

A pump jack is seen at sunrise near Bakersfield Thomson Reuters

By Aaron Sheldrick

TOKYO (Reuters) - Crude oil prices rose in early Asian trade on Friday for the first time in seven days as markets took a breather from concerns about the impact of Britain's possible exit from the European Union.

Brent crude futures were up 38 cents, or 0.8 percent, at $47.57 a barrel at 0143 GMT after slumping 3.6 percent in the previous session. The contract is on track to fall more than 5.5 percent for the week.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose 27 cents, or 0.6 percent, at $46.48. The contract fell 3.8 percent in the previous session and prices are down more than 5 percent so far this week.

The British pound rose from a two-month low after campaigning for next week's so-called Brexit vote next week was suspended following the murder on Thursday of UK member of parliament Jo Cox, who was a vocal advocate for Britain to stay in the European Union.

Commodities across the board also posted gains, while equity benchmarks including Japan's Nikkei stock average rose.

"We need to brace ourselves for further volatility," said Ben Le Brun, market analyst at OptionsXpress in Sydney.

"We are seeing a bit of a recovery now with maybe some short positions being unwound. It is certainly going to be a wild ride for investors and traders going into the June 23 decision," he said.

(Reporting by Aaron Sheldrick; Editing by Ed Davies and Richard Pullin)

Read the original article on Reuters. Copyright 2016. Follow Reuters on Twitter.

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The Latest: UK EU vote campaigns suspended after MP shot

• Associated Press

• 18h
• 237

A forensics officer takes photos of a female shoe, at the scene after Labour MP Jo Cox was left in a critical condition following being shot and stabbed in an attack in her constituency, in Birstall, West Yorkshire, England, Thursday, June 16, 2016. Police say British lawmaker Jo Cox has died after being shot in the in the town of Birstall, part of the area she represented. Acting Chief Constable Dee Collins of West Yorkshire Police says authorities can't discuss any motive for the shooting yet but they have made an arrest and are not looking for anyone else in connection with the attack. (Nigel Roddis/PA via AP) UNITED KINGDOM OUT syndication.ap.org

LONDON (AP) - The Latest on the shooting of a British lawmaker in a town near the city of Leeds (all times local):

10:40 p.m.

___

Secretary of State John Kerry and Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen are expressing their condolences to family and friends of the British Parliament member who was shot and stabbed to death.

Kerry, who was traveling in northern Europe on Thursday, said the attack on Jo Cox was "an assault on everybody who cares about and has faith in democracy."

Rasmussen called the killing "a true shock."

___

9:00 p.m.

Former U.S. Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, who survived an assassination attempt in 2011, says she and her husband are grieving over the British Parliament member who was shot and stabbed to death on Thursday.

Giffords, who was critically injured by a gunshot wound to her head while meeting with constituents, praised Jo Cox as "courageous, young and a hard-working public servant. She was a rising star, a mother and a wife."

Cox was killed by a gun- and knife-wielding attacker in her small-town constituency near Leeds, England, amid Britain's divisive campaign on whether to leave the European Union.

Giffords said in a statement: "I don't remember the constituent meeting where I was shot in the head and nearly lost my life, but the scores of such events I and so many others have hosted represent the importance of a democracy connected to its citizens."

___

6:35 p.m.

European Union finance ministers have paid silent tribute to a British lawmaker who was shot and killed a week ahead of a referendum on whether Britain should leave the EU.

At talks in Luxembourg Thursday, eurogroup chairman Jeroen Dijsselbloem said ministers "observed a moment of silence in our meeting, out of respect for her."

He said "the U.K. is a beacon for peaceful politics and we hope that the British public, the people of the U.K., can make their choices serenely and in a safe way next week."

Labour legislator Jo Cox was attacked and killed Thursday in northern England. A 52-year-old man has been arrested. Police believe it is a "lone incident" and are not looking for anyone else in connection with the attack.

___

5:20 p.m.

Police say British lawmaker Jo Cox has died after being shot in the in the town of Birstall, part of the area she represented.

Acting Chief Constable Dee Collins of West Yorkshire Police says authorities can't discuss any motive for the shooting yet but they have made an arrest and are not looking for anyone else in connection with the attack.

They say a man was also injured but is expected to survive.

Groups on both sides of the referendum on whether Britain should leave the European Union have suspended campaigning.

___

3:45 p.m.

British Prime Minister David Cameron says he has cancelled a planned pro-European Union speech in Gibraltar after a lawmaker was shot in a village near the city Leeds.

Labour Party lawmaker Jo Cox was shot and seriously wounded earlier Thursday, Britain's Press Association reported. A 52-year-old man has been arrested.

Groups on both sides of the British EU referendum said they have suspended their campaigns.

Cameron was scheduled to make a two-hour visit to Gibraltar Thursday to seek votes to keep Britain in the EU in the June 23 referendum. But he wrote on Twitter "I won't go ahead with tonight's rally in Gibraltar."

___

3:20 p.m.

Groups on both sides of the British EU referendum have suspended their campaigns after the shooting of a British lawmaker.

The "remain" and "leave" campaigns said Thursday that campaign events will be stopped for the rest of the day.

Further details are expected shortly.

There has been feverish campaigning ahead of the June 23 referendum on whether or not Britain should leave the European Union.

Prime Minister David Cameron had been expected to speak on behalf of the "remain" camp on Gibraltar. His Downing Street office did not have details on his plans.

Labour Party lawmaker Jo Cox was shot and seriously wounded earlier Thursday, Britain's Press Association reported. A 52-year-old man has been arrested.

Police have not revealed details about the incident near Leeds.

___

2:50 p.m.

Britain's Press Association reports Labour lawmaker Jo Cox has been injured in a shooting near Leeds.

The PA was quoting eyewitness Hithem Ben Abdallah as saying Cox got involved in a scuffle between two men in the village of Birstall on Thursday. Abdallah said one of the men was fighting with Cox and then a gun went off twice and "she fell between two cars and I came and saw her bleeding on the floor."

After around 15 minutes, the shop owner said emergency services arrived and tended to her with a drip.

Police say a "serious incident" has taken place, but didn't immediately identify the victim or provide any more details.

Cox's assistant confirmed to the PA she had been attacked.

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