Thursday, June 16, 2016

The BOJ leaves policy unchanged and now the Japanese yen is screeching higher

The BOJ leaves policy unchanged and now the Japanese yen is screeching higher

missileGetty/Scott Nelson
The Bank of Japan has left monetary policy steady at the conclusion of its June monetary policy meeting, an outcome that was expected by a majority in financial markets.
The board voted 8-1 in favour of expanding the monetary base at an annual pace of around 80 trillion yen.
The vote was slightly closer on interest rates with the board splitting 7 to 2 to keep interest rates unchanged at -0.1%.
Twenty-eight percent of economists polled by Bloomberg forecast additional easing at this meeting, with that increasing to 55% by July 29, its next scheduled meeting where it will update its inflation projections.
In regards to the outlook for the Japanese economy, the board stated that "domestic demand is likely to follow an uptrend, with a virtuous cycle from income to spending being maintained in both the household and corporate sectors".
It also suggested that the economy is likely to be on a "moderate expanding trend."
On risks to the economic outlook, the board outlined a plethora of external risks citing uncertainty over emerging economies, including China, along with the influence on financial markets by the outlook for US interest rates.
There was no specific mention of Brexit, the UK referendum on whether the UK will leave the European Union on June 23, although it acknowledged that there were also geopolitical risks attached to the economic outlook.
"Global financial markets have remained volatile. Therefore, due attention still needs to be paid to the risk that an improvement in the business confidence of Japanese firms and conversion of the deflationary mindset might be delayed and that the underlying trend in inflation may be negatively affected," said the board.
On inflation, the BOJ acknowledged that annual change in consumer prices is "likely to be slightly negative or above 0% for the time being", citing the effects of the decline in commodity prices.
As a result, it stated that is will continue with its QQE and negative interest rate policy in order to achieve its price stability target of 2% "as long as it is necessary for maintaining that target in a stable manner".
While most were expecting such an outcome, it hasn't prevented currency traders from piling into the Japanese yen, seeing it rise to the highest point seen against the US dollar since October 2014.
The USD/JPY currently trades at 104.79, having fallen as low as 104.56 in the immediate aftermath of the BOJ decision.
Earlier in the session yields on Japanese government bonds (JGBs) from five to thirty years duration all hit record lows, largely in response to growing Brexit fears.
Japanese stocks have also tumbled with the Nikkei 225 index trading down 1.52% at 15,677.29 shortly after the resumption of trade from the mid-session break.
Here's the USD/JPY daily chart.
USDJPY daily June 16 2016Business Insider Australia
The BOJ June monetary policy statement can be accessed here.
Read the original article on Business Insider Australia. Copyright 2016. Follow Business Insider Australia on Twitter.

As gates open in Shanghai, Disney already adding to $5.5 billion park

As gates open in Shanghai, Disney already adding to $5.5 billion park

By Adam Jourdan
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Boasting the Magic Kingdom's tallest fairytale castle and longest musical parade, Walt Disney Co's Shanghai park is already its biggest overseas outpost. But even as gates open to the public this week, it's still building to keep customers keen.
Disney's largest overseas investment at $5.5 billion, the park is a bet on China's middle class and its booming domestic tourism. The U.S. firm hopes it will offset an otherwise lackluster international theme park business, better known for cash-burning sites like Euro Disney.
Calling Shanghai Disney the firm's greatest business opportunity since Walt Disney bought land in the central Florida in the 1960s, the company has been at pains to woo the home crowd in a country where competition from a plethora of local theme parks promises to be fierce.
Main Street has been replaced by Mickey Avenue to reduce the feel of Americana while attractions include a Chinese-style Wandering Moon tea house, a Chinese Zodiac-themed garden and a Tarzan musical featuring Chinese acrobats.
The park's seven square kilometer plot of land means there is plenty of space to expand, Disney Chief Executive Bob Iger told reporters ahead of the official opening on Thursday.
"There is actually construction going on this week. When we open we will continue the construction to expand what's on the opening day menu," he said.
"We have plenty of space to do that and we believe we've got willing partners... We think we will probably do that sooner rather than later."
Iger, who scouted the Shanghai site in 1999, said China had incredible potential given its size. Disney estimates there are 330 million people within a three hour radius of Shanghai, the country's financial center, who would be able to afford to come to the park.
Shanghai Disney could also help lure more consumers to its films. "Zootopia", "Captain America: Civil War", "The Jungle Book" and "Star Wars: the Force Awakens" are among the 10 most-watched movies in China of 2016, reaping more than $690 million in ticket sales, according to Box Office Mojo. Characters from those films will feature at the Shanghai resort.
Disney, though, is facing intense competition from billionaire developers building homegrown parks and from domestic cartoon characters. It also faces a deeply ambivalent attitude to its products in China.
On one hand, Iger received a presidential welcome from Xi Jinping in May, and Disney has been granted "special" trademark protection. But China's main military newspaper has also warned that "Zootopia", a story about a rabbit police officer in an animal city, was a tool for spreading U.S. propaganda and ideals.
Disney is also not set to reap all the rewards. The resort is a joint venture with state-owned Shendi Group, which has a 57 percent stake - a concession agreed during lengthy negotiations.
Shendi is a consortium controlled by four large government-owned companies: Shanghai Media Group; hotelier Jin Jiang International, controlled by the city of Shanghai; supermarket-to-department store operator Bailian Group, and property developer Lujiazui Development Group.
(Reporting by Adam Jourdan; Editing by Edwina Gibbs)
Read the original article on Reuters. Copyright 2016. Follow Reuters on Twitter.

Gold is surging

Gold is surging

The spot gold price has ripped higher in Asian trade, rising to as high as US$1,311.10 an ounce, the highest level seen since August 2014.
Growing fears over a UK "Brexit" from the European Union, and the subsequent fallout on financial markets, along with US dollar weakness thanks to investors rushing back to the relative safety of the Japanese yen, have both contributed to the move.
Spot silver prices are also on the rise, recently hitting as high as $17.86 an ounce, a level not seen since May 2 this year. Investors may be eyeing a move back above $18.01 level, something that would mark the highest level since January 26 last year.
Earlier this week HSBC's chief precious metals analyst, James Steel, suggested that the gold price would surge should a Brexit vote get up, forecasting that spot prices could rise to as high as US$1,400 an ounce.
"As a risk-off asset, gold would likely rally in the event of a leave vote. We anticipate a sizable safe haven bid in gold in this event," said Steel.
"The argument for this is straightforward. The uncertainty spurred by an exit vote would likely elicit sufficient gold purchases to buoy prices. The link is the interconnection between the gold market and wider financial markets.
"In periods of uncertainty, gold is often one of the few liquid perceived safe haven assets. It is also historically negatively correlated with risk-on assets."
If there's one thing that's characterised Asian markets on Thursday, it's been that uncertainty and risk aversion are rife.
Read the original article on Business Insider Australia. Copyright 2016. Follow Business Insider Australia on Twitter.

Foreign selling of U.S. Treasuries in April was most since 1978: data

Foreign selling of U.S. Treasuries in April was most since 1978: data

United States one dollar bills are seen on a light table at the Bureau of Engraving and Printing in Washington November 14, 2014. REUTERS/Gary Cameron/File PhotoUnited States one dollar bills seen on a light table at the Bureau of Engraving and Printing in Washington Thomson Reuters
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Foreign investors sold a record amount of U.S. Treasury bonds and notes for the month of April, according to U.S. Treasury Department data on Wednesday, as investors priced in a few more rate increases by the Federal Reserve this year.
Foreigners sold $74.6 billion in U.S. Treasury debt in the month, after purchases of $23.6 billion in March. April's outflow was the largest since the U.S. Treasury Department started recording Treasury debt transactions in January 1978.
Private offshore investors sold $59.1 billion in U.S. government bonds, while foreign official institutions, which include central banks, sold $12.3 billion.
U.S. economic data in April included a decent non-farm payrolls report for March, along with strong manufacturing as measured by the Institute for Supply Management. That prompted investors to sell Treasuries in April, as did an upswing in risk appetite, with buoyant global stocks and rebounding oil prices.
Yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury notes at the beginning of April were 1.7910 percent, and they hit a high of 1.9410 late in the month.
China remained the largest foreign holder of U.S. government debt, although its holdings in April declined to $1.2443 trillion, from $1.245 trillion in March. U.S. Treasury holdings of the world's second largest economy declined for a second straight month.
Japan, the No. 2 foreign U.S. Treasury debt holder, posted higher U.S. government debt holdings of $1.143 trillion from $1.137 trillion in March. Japan raised its U.S. Treasury holdings for a fourth straight month.
The report also showed for a second consecutive month U.S. Treasury holdings of Saudi Arabia and other oil-producing countries. Saudi Arabia has the largest Treasury holdings among the Gulf oil exporters with $113.0 billion, down from $116.8 billion the previous month.
Overall, foreign central bank holdings of U.S. Treasuries contracted to $6.239 trillion in April, from $6.287 trillion in March.
Data also showed that foreigners sold long-term U.S. securities in April after buying them for the previous two months.
Offshore investors unloaded $79.6 billion in long-term U.S. assets, after purchasing $78.1 billion the previous month. Including shorter-dated securities, however, overseas investors bought $80.4 billion in April after selling $98.1 billion in March.
U.S. stocks, meanwhile, showed outflows for a third straight month, with foreigners selling $2.8 billion in April from $16.5 billion in March. Foreigners have sold U.S. equities in eight of the last nine months.
(Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Alan Crosby and David Gregorio)
Read the original article on Reuters. Copyright 2016. Follow Reuters on Twitter.

NEW BREXIT POLLS: Leave has surged to BIG LEADS in hugely important surveys

NEW BREXIT POLLS: Leave has surged to BIG LEADS in hugely important surveys

  • Ipsos MORI phone poll: Remain 47 / Leave 53
  • Survation phone poll: Remain 42 / Leave 45
  • It is the FIRST TIME that Leave has led in an Ipsos MORI poll
  • Survation's poll shows a 7-POINT SWING in favour of Leave
Polling firms Ipsos MORI and Survation have published the results of their latest EU referendum opinion polls and it's yet more fantastic news for the Leave campaign.
The results of IPOS Mori's indicates that the campaign for Britain to pull out of the 28-nation bloc has a six-point lead among respondents who are certain to vote. It's also the first timesince David Cameron promised to hold a referendum back in January 2013 that Leave has led in one of Ipsos MORI's monthly polls.
According to Survation's latest phone poll, a huge seven-point swing has occurred in favour of a Brexit. The results show a three-point lead for the Leave campaign (45/42%).
brexitSurvation
Putting it simply, it a sensational set of results in what has been a sensational week so far for Brexiteers.
Here is the Ipsos MORI poll visualised:
Ipsos MORI EU referendum poll June 16Ipsos MORI / Evening Standard
In what ought to be a massive worry for Remain campaigners, public opinion has taken a significant shift towards a Brexit over the past week. These phone polls are the fifth and sixth released this week to show a lead for the Leave campaign.
Even among all Ipsos MORI participants - not just those who are certain to vote on June 23 - Leave had a two-point lead (51/49%). This is important because even when Remain has been behind with those who are certain to vote in past polls it has usually still been in the lead among all respondents.
These are also the latest surveys conducted over the phone to give leads to Leave after months of phone polls consistently indicating leads for Remain.
Importantly, both pollsters were some of the most accurate when it came to predicting the outcome of the Scottish independence referendum.
This is what Ipsos MORI and Survation's latest surveys means for Business Insider's live EU referendum opinion polls chart. As the chart illustrates, public backing for a Brexit has surged over the past week.
Business Insider EU referendum polls June 16 1Business Insider / What Uk Thinks data
As Business Insider said earlier this week, this pro-Brexit swing is not a blip. It is a very real statistical phenomenon and it couldn't come at a worse time for David Cameron and co with just one week until the referendum.
A swing is taking place in the EU referendum betting market, too. After months of Remain being the overwhelming favourite, William Hill estimated earlier this week that Leave will be the most likely outcome by the weekend.
More opinion polls are expected to be published this week by ComRes and Opinium.

87 months and counting — Bank of England holds and reiterates Brexit fears

87 months and counting — Bank of England holds and reiterates Brexit fears

Mark CarneyBank of England governor Mark Carney. REUTERS/Guadalupe Pardo
Another month, another hold.
With exactly one week to go until the UK votes on whether or not to leave the European Union, had the bank done anything other than leave rates on hold, it would have been an enormous surprise.
With inflation growth slowing -CPI hit just 0.3% at the last reading - the state of GDP growth, which slowed to 0.4% in Q1 2016, and the Brexit referendum, which has effectively put the British economy into a holding pattern, the BoE is remaining dovish in tone.
Along with the decision, the bank once again warned of the dangers of Britain voting to leave the EU, saying that Brexit would affect consumption and investment, push the pound downwards, and send growth spiking. Here is the key quote from the minutes of the MPC's meeting(emphasis ours):
A vote to leave the EU could materially alter the outlook for output and inflation, and therefore the appropriate setting of monetary policy. Households could defer consumption and firms delay investment, lowering labour demand and causing unemployment to rise. Through financial market and confidence channels, there are also risks of adverse spill-overs to the global economy. At the same time, supply growth is likely to be lower over the forecast period, reflecting slower capital accumulation and the need to reallocate resources. Sterling is also likely to depreciate further, perhaps sharply. This combination of influences on demand, supply and the exchange rate could lead to a materially lower path for growth and a notably higher path for inflation.
Carney and the Bank of England have been pretty unequivocal in his belief that Brexit risks are "the biggest risks facing the UK economy," in recent weeks. Earlier on Thursday it emerged that Carney had sent an angry letter to a pro-Brexit MP who accused him of not being neutral. In the letter, Carney told Bernard Jenkin that he has "a fundamental misunderstanding of central bank independence," and that the BoE's interventions on Brexit have all been "entirely consistent with our remits."
On Thursday, the BoE's interest rate decision once again took a back seat to the bank's comments on Brexit. Rates have been on hold since March 2009, when the committee first cut the Bank Rate to 0.5%. June's decision marks 87 consecutive months of the same base rate.
All nine members of the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee voted to hold for a fifth straight month, despite market speculation that at least two members of the committee have been considering voting for a cut in recent months.
In February, the MPC's sole hawk Ian McCafferty, who had previously voted for a rise to 0.75%,changed his position and voted to hold rates, a position that has remained ever since.
General market consensus has been pricing the next interest rate hike as far out as 2020, with many analysts now predicting a cut long before a hike.
Along with the rate hold, the bank left its Asset Purchase Facility unchanged at £375 billion ($530 billion).

Wednesday, June 15, 2016

GUNDLACH: It's going to be a rocky summer

GUNDLACH: It's going to be a rocky summer

Screen Shot 2016 06 14 at 4.10.48 PMDoubleLine Funds
DoubleLine CEO Jeff Gundlach delivered his latest presentation on markets and the economy on Wednesday.
Here were the main points:
  • A summer sell-off is coming, and will be triggered in part by rhetoric around Donald Trump’s possible election win. It will be a buying opportunity. 
  • Negative interest rates are not working and are having the opposite effect on currencies, stocks and the economies using them.
  • Gundlach’s favorite recession indicator, and a few others, say there’s no cause for alarm right now.
  • A "Leave" vote in the British referendum would have a ripple effect on the eurozone and mark the beginning of its end. 
He reiterated his call against higher rates, and again noted the disconnect between Federal Reserve expectations and where the bond market is. 
Here are highlights from the presentation:

View As: One Page Slides


Trillions of dollars worth of bonds worldwide have negative yields

Trillions of dollars worth of bonds worldwide have negative yields
DoubleLine Funds
The German 10-year yield has been in the news recently for falling to record lows. 

And, the proportion of global GDP governed by a central bank with negative rates is on the rise...

And, the proportion of global GDP governed by a central bank with negative rates is on the rise...
DoubleLine Funds
Gundlach does not like negative rates. At all. 

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