Monday, October 12, 2015

SingPost grows E-commerce with US, European services

SingPost grows E-commerce with US, European services

[SINGAPORE] Singapore Post Ltd, which counts Alibaba Group Holding Ltd as its second-biggest shareholder, plans to expand freight services and warehouses in the US and Europe as Asia's emerging middle class drives online purchases from overseas.
SingPost expects online transactions to jump in coming years, as the typical household in Southeast Asia currently receives just two to three parcels a year on average, compared with about 30 in developed markets, Chief Executive Officer Wolfgang Baier said in an interview Oct 8.
"We need to double down" on the push into e-commerce, Mr Baier said. "E-commerce is going to grow, and we want to make sure we're there." The move comes as other postal companies in Asia also are looking to reinvent themselves. Japan Post Group, a US$2.5 trillion behemoth that also function as a bank and insurer, is preparing an initial public offering and looking to expand internationally after buying Australian logistics company Toll Holdings Ltd. earlier this year.
SingPost holds a monopoly on mail delivery in its home base, which accounts for about 80 per cent of its operating profit, but is looking for new areas of growth as more people use mobile phones and access the Internet. Worldwide business- to-consumer sales could grow 34 percent to US$675 billion in 2016 from last year as the global middle class grows, SingPost said, citing data from researcher eMarketer.
The company is building its e-commerce business by managing online stores for about 15 clients such as Adidas AG and Canon Inc, providing warehousing, handling customs and making deliveries, Mr Baier said. SingPost, whose biggest shareholder is Singapore Telecommunications Ltd., provides these services in Hong Kong, Australia and a number of economies in the Asia- Pacific region, in addition to its home market.
SingPost said Friday it's buying 71 per cent of Jagged Peak Inc, a Tampa, Florida-based e-commerce company, for US$15.8 million. The agreement marked its first purchase in the US, adding to S$181 million of acquisitions in the past year, according to data provided by the Singapore company.
Online purchases account for about 0.2 percent of total retail sales in Southeast Asia, compared with 10 per cent to 15 per cent in developed markets, he said.
Alibaba, China's biggest e-commerce company, agreed in July to boost its stake in SingPost to 14.51 percent from 10.23 per cent. It also bought 34 per cent of a SingPost e-commerce logistics subsidiary that provides warehousing across the Asia- Pacific region, and the two companies have said they'll continue seeking other business opportunities together.
SingPost's volumes have increased "significantly" since it partnered with Alibaba, Mr Baier said, without providing figures. The partnership with Alibaba could help increase volumes for SingPost, bringing down costs for customers, Mr Baier said.
SingPost is alert for potential acquisitions beyond Singapore, Mr Baier said. The company had cash and equivalents of S$566 million (US$404 million) at the end of June.
SingPost is investing in facilities as well. The company will spend S$182 million to build a three-floor warehouse to handle e-commerce businesses in Southeast Asia and serve as the connecting point to the rest of Asia, it said last year. The warehouse should be fully operational in the second half of 2016.
SingPost also is exploring the feasibility of delivering packages by drone, echoing attempts by Amazon.com Inc. The company said Oct 8 that it has conducted a test flight.
"We're not just a delivery company, we're not just a mail company," Baier said. "This e-commerce ecosystem will explode once there's a critical mass in terms of deliveries."
BLOOMBERG

MAS monetary policy decision will be a close call, say economists

MAS monetary policy decision will be a close call, say economists

Majority of private-sector economists project a policy easing, but the central bank has often surprised

Singapore
WILL the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) surprise again on Wednesday, when it releases its October monetary policy statement, or will it follow the market's script?
If the central bank moves in tandem with most economists' expectations, a weakening of the Singapore dollar will be on the cards - whether by a downward recentring of the S$NEER (Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate) band, or a reduction in the band's slope to a neutral policy stance.
But the MAS has also repeatedly shown that it is capable of catching the market by surprise. This time, a small minority of economists say the central bank will keep all policy settings on hold, with no change to the slope and width of the policy band, and the level at which it is centred.
According to a Reuters poll, 12 out of 18 analysts surveyed say their base case is for an easing in policy. The others expect no easing, although two believe the MAS is likely to widen the Singapore dollar's policy band, to accommodate higher market volatility.
Still, economists BT spoke to unanimously agree that it is a close call. Said Mizuho's Vishnu Varathan: "I think they're going to ease - but I say this with the same conviction of a snowball in hell."
Economists in the pro-easing camp include those from Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML), CIMB Private Banking, Credit Suisse, DBS, Mizuho, and UOB. They believe the central bank will ease in response to a probable technical recession, and amid the absence of inflationary pressures.
On the prices front, core inflation - which strips out accommodation and private transport costs, and is the focus for monetary policy - has continued to undershoot official forecasts.
While the government projects full-year core inflation to come in at the lower half of 0.5 to 1.5 per cent, it has actually come under the 0.5 per cent mark since April. "Inflationary pressures are largely absent, thanks to lower oil prices, falling rents, stable Certificate of Entitlement (COE) premiums and a host of budget measures including healthcare subsidies. Concerns over rising wage cost pressures passing through to consumer prices have also not materialised," said BAML's Chua Hak Bin.
He and most private-sector economists expect the MAS to lower both its headline and core inflation forecasts for 2015.
As for growth, economists highlight how conditions have deteriorated significantly since April's monetary policy meeting - providing further ammunition for an easing this week.
Singapore is now teetering on the edge of a technical recession in Q3, with the median forecast of 10 economists polled by Bloomberg pointing to a 0.1 per cent contraction in GDP in quarter-on-quarter, seasonally-adjusted annualised terms.
A technical recession is defined as two straight quarters of sequential contraction in GDP.
Said CIMB Private Banking economist Song Seng Wun: "The only reason growth is still within the 2 to 2.5 per cent range so far is because of Q1, which pulled things up. The other quarters haven't been good, and looking ahead at the challenging conditions, it suggests that growth will stay outside of the official range."
Given both the inflation and growth outlook, economists like Mr Song and those from DBS and UOB expect a downward recentring of the Singapore dollar's policy band, while those from Credit Suisse and Mizuho foresee a shift to a zero appreciation stance via a slope reduction.
Even more aggressive is BAML's call - Dr Chua sees both a zero bias and a recentring move, "given the odds of a technical recession and the balance of downside risks".
Still, other economy-watchers say the likelihood of this happening is very slim. Historically, the MAS has never recentred the band without first having adopted a flat slope in a previous meeting.
A handful of economists - including those from Barclays, Citi, HSBC, and OCBC - are not convinced by the majority's calls for easing. Instead, they believe the MAS will keep all policy settings on hold.
Said HSBC economist Joseph Incalcaterra: "A technical recession in itself is probably not enough to trigger a policy shift. The MAS would have to downgrade its core inflation view and maintain the 2015 forecast range into 2016 ... We think the hurdles to easing still remain high."
Added OCBC's Selena Ling: "I don't think MAS is typically bothered by a technical recession, unless you get an outright full-year sharp drop. As long as growth is around the 2 per cent handle for the full year, it's dismal, but it's not dire."
She and Citi's Kit Wei Zheng and Yap Kim Leng also disagree with the view that inflation will remain a non-concern. "With wage pressures (expected) to persist and fading base effects, a pick-up is likely from late 2015," said the Citi economists in a research note.
Ms Ling added that it will be "quite radical" for the central bank to move twice in a year, especially after MAS eased in a surprise move in January 2015, reducing the slope of the S$NEER appreciation bias.
Even with his easing call, Mr Song joined Mr Incalcaterra and Ms Ling in cautioning that an easing would pressure short-term interest rates higher, since these rise as expectations of Singdollar depreciation increase.
"That's going to hurt the domestic economy more, in terms of the hit to businesses and also households, who would be dealing with higher mortgage rates. We have to take into consideration the fact that MAS is not like other central banks, who can easily cut rates and not get these unintended consequences," stressed Ms Ling.
As for a possible band widening, Mr Kit and Mr Yap said: "With MAS reluctant to undermine the anchor of stability, the hurdle for such a move therefore is high ... Band widening is a relatively rare occurrence, with only three instances in the last twenty years, when specific severe global or external event shocks triggered heightened market volatility and/or economic uncertainty."
MAS will announce its monetary policy statement at 8am on Wednesday, Oct 14.

SGX reviewing companies' compliance with CG Code

SGX reviewing companies' compliance with CG Code

SGX said on Monday that it is carrying out a review of how listed companies abide by the "comply or explain" requirement for principles and guidelines of the Singapore Code of Corporate Governance.
The review will cover annual reports of over 550 mainboard companies released in the 12 months to June 30, 2015. SGX intends to make findings of the review public and engage with relevant companies to ensure shortcomings identified are addressed.
The review will capture all aspects of the CG Code and focus on the areas specified in the SGX Disclosure Guidance document. Examples of key CG Code principles covered in the review include board composition, risk management and internal controls and disclosure on remuneration.
"A company's approach to the Code of Corporate Governance principles speaks volumes about its commitment to business transparency and accountability to stakeholders. Companies are under ever increasing scrutiny; those with good governance will build up reserves of shareholder trust and confidence which can be drawn upon should they become victims of negative research reports or short selling," said Tan Boon Gin, chief regulatory officer of SGX.
SGX will work with KPMG which has been appointed to carry out the review of companies' annual reports. The review is expected to take four months to complete.

Asia's growth story "alive and well": DBS chief

Asia's growth story "alive and well": DBS chief

By
THE Asian growth story is "alive and well", driven by megatrends that include a young population, rising wealth, and market reform in China, said DBS chief executive Piyush Gupta on Monday.
"I believe the reality is, we're still at the cusp of what people have often called, the Asian century," said Mr Gupta at the conference Sibos 2015.
"If you ignore the cycles, the reality is that the megatrends on which the Asian story is founded, are pretty inexorable and quite immutable."
He noted that Asia's GDP (gross domestic product) has grown from 40 per cent of the US GDP in 2000, to 70-80 per cent of US GDP in 2010. Asia also has an attractive demographic profile, given its average age is 28. By contrast, that stands at 39 in Europe.
The worries behind China's mounting debt should also be measured against its large fiscal capacity, said Mr Gupta.
"The state of the problem is no bigger than the US problem when Geithner wrote a cheque for TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Programme) at US$700 billion," he told participants.
He said that China, in moving from an administered economy, to a market-driven one, has made some policy missteps. This is even as the recent market reform has largely followed a blueprint laid out five years ago.
"You cannot discount the possibility of accidents. However, once again, I think they are operating to a plan," said Mr Gupta.

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