Campaign begins for Myanmar election set to decide scope of democratic change

Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi will take her election battle straight to one of the president's closest allies when campaigning gets under way this week for the first free general election since the end of military rule. 

PHOTO: REUTERS

SEP 8, 20157:17 AM

[YANGON] Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi will take her election battle straight to one of the president's closest allies when campaigning gets under way this week for the first free general election since the end of military rule.

Nobel laureate Suu Kyi will meet her supporters on Thursday in the region where powerful Minister of the President's Office Soe Thein, the architect of President Thein Sein's economic reforms, is running for a seat in the Nov. 8 election.

Her appearance is a gesture of confidence that her National League for Democracy (NLD) can defeat the president's closest supporters and their ruling, army-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). The campaign officially begins on Tuesday.

The NLD is expected to win the historic poll, which marks a major shift in Myanmar's political landscape, giving the platform to democratic activists shut out of public life during nearly half a century of strict military rule that ended in 2011.

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Since then, the country's semi-civilian government has implemented reforms, released hundreds of political prisoners and opened Myanmar to investment.

"The elections are poised to be the most credible since the 1950s and that's significant," said Richard Horsey, an independent political analyst and a former UN official in Myanmar. "If the NLD, as expected, becomes the largest party, there will be huge expectations that would be difficult for any party to meet," he said.

The campaign begins less then a month after a major presidential contender and opponent of Thein Sein, powerful parliamentary speaker Shwe Mann, was removed as ruling party leader in a dramatic shake-up of the political establishment.

Mr Shwe Mann's close relationship with Suu Kyi was regarded with suspicion by the military, a warning perhaps that the generals and their conservative allies will resist any bid to push them from power even if the opposition wins big.

Parties are banned from criticising the military or the junta-drafted constitution in campaign speeches in state media.

The ballot will determine representatives of the bicameral parliament and regional chambers for five-year terms.

The upper and lower houses will both nominate a presidential candidate, who must secure the support of a majority of members, and the military - which under the junta-drafted constitution holds a quarter of the seats - will nominate a third.

Parliament will then vote on which of the three candidates will be president and the president will form the government.

"It's really the president and the president's administration, rather than the biggest party in parliament, that determines what happens next in the reform process," said Horsey. "That's the real question." The constitution effectively bars Suu Kyi from becoming president, even if the NLD wins a majority, and it also gives the army a veto over constitutional change.

AGGRESSIVE CAMPAIGN

The NLD's power in parliament will depend on whether it has enough members to nominate a presidential candidate on its own. With few credible opinion polls in the impoverished country, that is unclear.

,Ms Suu Kyi has said her party will put forward a "suitable"presidential nominee. She has declined to elaborate.

The USDP, which is dominated by military and civil servants who retired to become candidates, will be the NLD's biggest opponent.

The last general election was held under military rule in 2010 and widely condemned as rigged in favour of the USDP, which includes remnants of the old regime and business allies, and it is expected to lose a significant number of seats.

Ms Suu Kyi was under house arrest at the time of 2010 vote and her party did not take part, but she was released six days later. The NLD agreed to join the quasi-civilian system in 2012 and later won 43 seats in parliament in by-elections.

Ms Suu Kyi is standing in the constituency of Kawhmu, a southern delta town outside the biggest city, Yangon. "We are going to aggressively target the constituencies with big-ticket candidates from the ruling camp," said Win Htein, a senor NLD member who is coordinating its campaign.

Win Htein said the party would focus on four main areas, including the amendment of the constitution and a peace process with ethnic minority guerrillas. "We will also work to create a non-corruptible government and on national reconciliation - because we're dealing with the army," said Win Htein.

Several issues are casting a shadow over the election including the cancellation of temporary citizenship documents that allowed members of the Rohingya Muslim minority to vote in previous elections.

Many parties, mindful of the growing influence of conservative Buddhists across the country did not file Muslim candidates, observers say.

REUTER
S

Indonesian rupiah rout swells cost of US$304 billion foreign debt

Investors selling the rupiah on concern Indonesia will suffer a debt crisis risk a self-fulfilling prophesy. 

PHOTO: REUTERS

SEP 8, 20156:58 AM

[JAKARTA] Investors selling the rupiah on concern Indonesia will suffer a debt crisis risk a self-fulfilling prophesy.

The rupiah has slumped to its lowest level since the peak of the Asian financial crisis, when Indonesia was bailed out by the International Monetary Fund. Its nine-week decline is the longest since June 2004. That's unfortunate timing for the nation's government, banks and companies that owe a record US$304 billion in foreign debt, almost three times the country's US$105.4 billion of international reserves, according to central bank data.

Indonesia's currency has plunged 13.2 per cent this year, Asia's worst performing after Malaysia, as China's yuan devaluation in August fueled speculation of currency wars in the region. Bonds denominated in the US currency have lost 3.9 per cent over the last three months, JPMorgan Chase & Co indexes show, as companies face a vicious cycle of higher debt servicing costs, falling earnings and slumping asset prices. Only Mongolia's debt fared worse in Asia.

"The debt servicing costs of these companies will go up and that means impact on leverage and coverage ratios," said Raymond Chia, the head of credit research for Asia ex-Japan at Schroder Investment Management. "The impact could affect a company's reported bottom line as well as dividends, which may cause their stock to drop. That drop could eventually feed through to the bonds given investor sentiment."

Of the debt, US$169.7 billion is private, according to central bank data. Companies listed in Jakarta reported about US$22 billion of foreign currency debt as at the end of June, 24 per cent more than a year earlier, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. PT Astra International, which assembles and sells cars for Toyota Motor Corp, has the biggest exposure with US$3.5 billion in currencies outside of rupiah, or about two thirds of its total borrowings.

PT Indofood Sukses Makmur, the maker of Indomie instant noodles controlled by billionaire Anthoni Salim, is the second- biggest foreign currency debtor among publicly traded firms with US$1.7 billion of exposure, about three quarters of the money it owes to banks and investors.

It may be premature to declare a crisis. The rupiah's plunge will also make Indonesian products cheaper abroad and favor economic growth in the long run, according to Hal Hill, a professor of Southeast Asian studies at the Australian National University in Sydney.

"Indonesia has not had an asset price bubble which is often a precursor to a crisis," Mr Hill said. "There's also a good deal more caution than in 1998." The rapid rise of private leverage offshore has left Indonesia at risk. Standard & Poor's says the nation is more exposed to capital flight than neighboring Malaysia.

"The thing about Malaysia is that the capital market is deeper there, so there's less reliance on foreign capital among corporates or banks to fund their growth," said Kyran Curry, S&P's director of sovereign ratings in Singapore. "Indonesia is much more vulnerable to shifts in outflows and inflows. We're worried about Indonesia's foreign-exchange reserves." Private external dues are now equivalent to 56 percent of the total offshore debt owed by the country. At the end of 1996, the equivalent was even less at 36 per cent, according to Yasuyuki Matsumoto's 2007 book 'Financial Fragility and Instability in Indonesia'.

"The distinctive characteristic of the Indonesian external debt problem during this period was the rapid build-up of the corporate debt," Mr Matsumoto wrote.

Standard & Poor's has downgraded seven Indonesian companies this year and not upgraded any, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The rating cuts included animal feed producer PT Japfa Comfeed Indonesia, tire maker PT Gajah Tunggal and conglomerate PT MNC Investama, with S&P citing foreign currency exposure in all three cases.

"A number of these companies, with the exception of some consumer and shipping companies, managed to pull through the global financial crisis, even if under a stressed situation," Mr Chia at Schroder said. "This time around, while currency weakness is one aspect to consider, the lower commodity price is a key factor too."

BLOOMBERG

    
 

Egypt minister arrested after quitting in graft probe

Egypt's agriculture minister was arrested in Cairo on Monday after being told to step aside in connection with an investigation into corruption at his ministry, judicial and media sources said. 

PHOTO: AFP

SEP 8, 20156:55 AM

[CAIRO] Egypt's agriculture minister was arrested in Cairo on Monday after being told to step aside in connection with an investigation into corruption at his ministry, judicial and media sources said.

Salah Helal "resigned on the orders of the president", a statement from the prime minister's office said.

He was detained after a meeting in the premier's office, a judicial source told AFP, speaking on condition of anonymity.

"He was arrested as part of an investigation into a major case of corruption in his ministry," the official MENA news agency reported.

The prosecution service had last week banned media from publishing any information about the case.

Helal, 59, an agronomy graduate, rose through the ranks at the agriculture ministry to become minister in March.

Helal and his chief of staff were believed to have "requested and received" bribes from businessman Ayman al-Gamil - through an intermediary - to legalise the purchase of a property bought from the state, the statement said.

They were questioned and remanded in custody.

Graft at many levels has blighted the Arab world's most populous country.

In July, a court sentenced a former prime minister of ousted president Hosni Mubarak to five years in prison for corruption and fined him millions of dollars.

Ahmed Nazif, whom Mubarak sidelined to appease protesters during the 2011 uprising that ended his rule, was convicted in his retrial of having used his position to make a fortune of US$8.2 million.

The court also fined him US$6.8 million.

Nazif had been accused of corrupt property deals and receiving illegal bonuses.

POPULAR DEMAND FOR ACCOUNTABILITY

Mubarak and many of his former ministers were placed on trial following his overthrow amid popular demands for them to be held accountable for years of corruption.

Many former regime figures have been found not guilty in retrials, however.

In March, Mubarak's once feared interior minister Habib al-Adly was acquitted of corruption charges.

He was cleared of illegally accumulating around 181 million Egyptian pounds, and the court also lifted an asset freeze on him and members of his family.

Mubarak himself and his two sons Alaa and Gamal were sentenced to three years in prison earlier this year for corruption.

But they had been in detention for much of the past four years, and may be released early when time served is accounted for.

Many Egyptians looked upon Alaa and Gamal Mubarak as symbols of corruption during their father's three-decade rule.

All three were arrested in 2011, months after Mubarak was toppled in a popular 18-day uprising.

On May 9 this year, they and their father were fined 125 million pounds, the amount they were accused of embezzling from funds meant for the maintenance of presidential palaces.

The court also ordered them to pay an extra 21 million pounds.

President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, before his election in May last year to succeed Islamist Mohamed Morsi, the man who succeeded Mubarak and whom he deposed while army chief, had pledged to stamp out corruption.

The retired field marshal said there would be no return to the corruption and human rights violations of the Mubarak era.

AFP

   
 

Britain, France join Germany in showing solidarity with migrants

Britain and France Monday joined Germany in pledging to accept tens of thousands of refugees as Europe's record influx of people fleeing war and misery sparked warnings that one Greek migrant chokepoint was "on the verge of explosion". 

PHOTO: REUTERS

SEP 8, 20156:49 AM

[BERLIN] Britain and France Monday joined Germany in pledging to accept tens of thousands of refugees as Europe's record influx of people fleeing war and misery sparked warnings that one Greek migrant chokepoint was "on the verge of explosion".

European leaders are scrambling for solutions as bloody conflicts in Syria, Iraq and beyond send hundreds of thousands of desperate people on dangerous voyages through the Balkans and across the Mediterranean to the 28-nation EU.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, whose country is Europe's top refugee destination, hailed the warm welcome her citizens gave to 20,000 asylum-seekers who streamed across its southern borders on weekend trains, and pledged billions more in money to house them.

Signalling that the huge wave of arrivals marked a milestone for Europe's biggest economy, she said that "what we are experiencing now is something that will ... change our country in coming years".

"We want the change to be positive, and we believe we can accomplish that," she said.

As EU leaders stepped up efforts to tackle the historic crisis, France said it would take 24,000 more asylum-seekers under a European plan to relocate 120,000 refugees from hard-hit frontline countries.

British Prime Minister David Cameron said his country would also do more, taking in 20,000 Syrian refugees from overflowing camps near the war-torn country's borders over the next five years.

Across the Atlantic, Canada's Quebec province pledged to welcome 3,650 Syrian refugees this year.

In Greece, the situation on Lesbos island near Turkey was "on the verge of explosion" with the recent arrival of more than 15,000 mainly Syrian refugees on an island inhabited by 85,000 people, the immigration minister warned.

With local resources pushed to the limit, clashes have broken out on Lesbos in recent days between police and migrants, and between migrants of different nationalities.

Tensions are also high at the border between Greece and Macedonia, where thousands of migrants and refugees were massed, impatiently waiting to cross from Greece.

From Macedonia, the migrants usually cross into Serbia and from there travel onto Hungary, Austria and Germany.

Hungary has taken a hard line on refugees but at the weekend gave into pressure to allow them pass into Austria after a large crowd began to walk from Budapest to the border.

Scores more were on the march on Monday, heading for Budapest after breaking through police lines at a registration centre near the border with Serbia.

POOR AND DESPERATE

Meanwhile, the poor and desperate kept coming, both on the land corridor through Turkey and the Balkans and on overcrowded boats in the Mediterranean on journeys that have left 2,800 dead or missing this year.

EU President Donald Tusk warned on Monday that the "exodus" from war-torn hotspots could last years, making it "so important to learn how to live with it without blaming each other".

Underscoring the danger brought home by last week's shocking image of three-year-old Aylan Kurdi lying drowned in the surf, a Greek passenger ferry on Monday sent its lifeboats to rescue 61 migrants whose boat was at risk of sinking off Lesbos.

Libyan coastguards said they had rescued over 120 migrants aboard a rubber dinghy en route to Europe.

As governments crack down on ruthless people smugglers charging thousands of dollars for the dangerous sea journeys, Turkey detained a fifth trafficking suspect over two boat sinkings last week, including the one which claimed the life of the three-year-old boy.

So far this year, 366,402 refugees have crossed the Mediterranean, 51 percent of them Syrians, according to the UN High Commissioner for Refugees.

Germany took in another 2,000 refugees by early afternoon, after more than 20,000 arrived on around 100 trains from Hungary through Austria over the weekend.

dR Merkel hailed as "breathtaking" the warm welcome given to them and said Germany was now seen by many abroad as a place of "hope".

Europe's top economy - which expects 800,000 asylum requests this year, four times last year's total - faces extra costs estimated at 10 billion euros (S$15.9 billion) this year and next.

Dr Merkel said that the federal government would contribute six billion euros for new shelters, extra police and language training in 2016.

SCHENGEN 'COLLAPSE' WARNING

But she also stressed that other EU countries had to help shoulder the burden, saying "only with common European solidarity can we master this effort".

French President Francois Hollande warned that unless the EU made a greater collective effort, the core European ideal of open borders will be in peril.

"If there is not a united policy, this mechanism will not work, it will collapse, and it will ... undoubtedly be the end of Schengen, the return of national borders," he said about the passport-free zone across much of the continent.

Welcoming Mr Hollande's "courageous" announcement on taking 24,000 refugees the EU's foreign affairs chief Federica Mogherini called on "all European leaders ... to take decisions that are coherent with the emotions they express".

But Europe looked far from united as Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who has taken a hard line, said quotas would be futile so long as refugees kept streaming in.

"As long as we can't defend Europe's outer borders, it is not worth talking about how many people we can take in," Mr Orban said in Budapest.

Under pressure from Berlin and Paris, the European Union is readying fresh quotas that would see the two top EU economies take nearly half of the 120,000 refugees to be relocated.

Under a proposal to be unveiled by European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker on Wednesday, Germany would take over 31,000, France 24,000, and Spain almost 15,000 to relieve the burden on Greece, Italy and Hungary, a European source told AFP.

AFP

    
 

Cameron suffers defeat in Commons vote on EU referendum bill

British Prime Minister David Cameron suffered an embarrassing defeat Monday over how the referendum he has called on leaving the European Union will be conducted. 

PHOTO: REUTERS

SEP 8, 20156:43 AM

[LONDON] British Prime Minister David Cameron suffered an embarrassing defeat Monday over how the referendum he has called on leaving the European Union will be conducted.

While the defeat in the House of Commons was on a technicality, it highlights the struggle Mr Cameron faces to keep eurosceptics in his own centre-right Conservative party in line before the vote, due by the end of 2017.

It was Mr Cameron's first defeat in the Commons, where he has a majority of only 16 seats, since winning Britain's general election in May.

The government had wanted to weaken the usual rules on purdah, under which ministers are banned from making any announcements on funding or other issues which could affect the result of the vote for the last 28 days of a referendum or election campaign.

But the normal rules will now be applied after the government's plans were defeated by 312 to 285 votes.

Eurosceptics teamed up with MPs from the main opposition Labour party and the Scottish National Party to vote down the move.

Mr Cameron wants to remain part of the EU as long as he can secure reforms on issues such as making it harder for EU migrants to access benefits and dropping the EU's commitment to ever-closer union.

Suspicions are growing among some eurosceptic MPs that he will be content to secure cosmetic changes to Britain's relationship with Europe ahead of the vote, rather than the deep-seated changes they want.

Monday is the last day of debate in the Commons on the EU Referendum Bill, which lays out the rules under which the referendum will be conducted.

It will then go to the House of Lords for further debate before it becomes law.

AFP

    
 

Hollande promises French voters 2b euros in tax relief

French President Francois Hollande pledged a new round of tax cuts next year worth two billion euros (US$2.23 billion) as he battles to cut high unemployment and win back voters ahead of a 2017 presidential election.

PHOTO: REUTERS

SEP 7, 20158:44 PM

[PARIS] French President Francois Hollande pledged a new round of tax cuts next year worth two billion euros (US$2.23 billion) as he battles to cut high unemployment and win back voters ahead of a 2017 presidential election.

In a wide-ranging two-hour news conference, Hollande said that growth was picking up in the eurozone's second-biggest economy, but not enough to cut unemployment.

Hollande has set a durable turnaround in France's unemployment, currently close to record levels over 10 per cent, as a condition for seeking a second mandate.

Raging unemployment and stiff tax increases that were introduced at the start of his five-year term in 2012 have made the Socialist leader deeply unpopular with many voters.

If the next presidential election were held now, he would not make it to a runoff round, losing out to conservative challenger and far-right leader Marine Le Pen, according to an Ifop poll for RTL and Le Figaro released on Sunday.

Mr Hollande already trimmed tax taxes for more than nine million of France's poorest households last year and those planned for 2016 would benefit eight million.

"The tax-cut policy that was started in 2014 and increased this year will continue in 2016 ... more than 2 billion euros will be devoted to it," Mr Hollande aid.

The cuts would be financed by squeezing more savings from the budget elsewhere in order to respect the government's pledges to EU partners to cut its public deficit to 3.3 per cent of economic output next year from an estimated 3.8 per cent this year, Mr Hollande said.

The public finances are benefiting from improving growth, which Hollande said would top 1.0 per cent this year and reach 1.5 per cent next year, even though it would not be enough to cut unemployment.

Mr Hollande pledged a reform of France's complicated labour code, which many firms say discourages hiring, to give workers and companies more freedom to negotiate work conditions rather than imposing top-down rules on them limiting flexibility.

However, he ruled out changing France's 35-hour work week, even though recent polls have suggest that a majority of French people would be favour.

REUTERS

    
 

AHPETC got S$22.5m in cash after 2013 by-election: DPM Teo

PAP refutes WP chief Low's claims that Punggol East town council accounts were in deficit

By

Lee U-Wenleeuwen@sph.com.sg@LeeUwenBT

PAP's Pasir Ris-Punggol GRC candidates (from right, facing camera) Mr Teo, Ms Sun Xueling and Mr Ng Chee Meng meeting stallholders at the wet market in Punggol Plaza on Sunday. The other three PAP Pasir Ris-Punggol candidates were on the walkabout as well. 

PHOTO: CAROLINE CHIA/THE STRAITS TIMES

SEP 7, 20155:50 AM

Singapore

A SUM of S$22.5 million in cash was handed to the Aljunied-Hougang-Punggol East Town Council (AHPETC) after the Workers' Party (WP) won the by-election in Punggol East in January 2013.

Revealing this on Sunday, Deputy Prime Minister Teo Chee Hean said the amount - from the Pasir Ris-Punggol Town Council, run by the People's Action Party (PAP) - included project funds and sinking funds, among other items.

Mr Teo, who is also the PAP's first assistant secretary-general, was responding to claims by WP chief Low Thia Khiang on Saturday that the accounts for Punggol East had an accumulated deficit of S$282,000 when the WP took over.

During the WP's rally, Mr Low displayed a single page from the Punggol East's income and expenditure statement for April 2013 that showed this deficit. The statement was signed by two people, including Pasir Ris-Punggol Town Council chairman Zainal Sapari.

Mr Teo, a candidate in Pasir-Ris Punggol GRC for this Friday's general election (GE) and whose six-member PAP team includes Mr Zainal, told reporters that the money handed over to the WP-run AHPETC was "fully accounted for" and had "no issues".

"Mr Low very dramatically showed one page of the accounts. There are over 20 pages. If you look at the whole set, we were very careful to hand over everything that was due to our residents here. We wanted to do right for them," said Mr Teo, adding that the WP did not raise any issues during the handover.

He noted that since then, AHPETC had never managed to submit an unqualified set of accounts. Mr Teo said the "real question" that the WP needs to answer is whether it had properly accounted for the S$22.5 million in cash.

Earlier in the day, Mr Zainal wrote on Facebook that Punggol East had been in "good financial health" and had a net surplus of S$21,363 at the point of takeover, after factoring in a sum of S$303,372 reimbursement claimable from the Community Improvement Projects Committee (CIPC) fund.

This fund, disbursed through the citizens' consultative committees, provides funding support for infrastrucutural and recreational facilities for the constituency.

"The truth is that the financial position was in surplus and Punggol East was in good financial health when the whole set of accounts that was handed over to AHPETC is read together. This information was provided to AHPETC at the handover," said Mr Zainal.

As at March 31, 2012, which was the last full-year audited accounts before the by-election, there was an accumulated routine fund surplus of S$804,945 for the Punggol East ward.

If there is a change of party after an election, the Town Councils Act requires that the entire routine fund surplus must be transferred to the sinking fund with the exception of town improvement projects committed at that point of time.

As such, S$782,563 was set aside from the routine fund surplus for committed town improvement projects, and the balance was transferred to the sinking fund.

He explained that, at the handover to AHPETC on April 30, 2013, the CIPC fund reimbursement was made known to AHPETC and this would give an actual net surplus of S$21,363.

At a separate interview, PAP organising secretary Ng Eng Hen said that the ruling party always kept very good audited accounts and the facts would speak for themselves.

"If (WP secretary-general) Mr Low agrees on the facts, he may have to issue a correction. I hope he is gentlemanly enough to accept that he was wrong in this regard," said Dr Ng.

Meanwhile, Mr Teo also described Charles Chong, the PAP's candidate for Punggol East who is challenging the WP incumbent Lee Li Lian, as an "experienced MP who has run a town council before".

Said Mr Teo: "My message to our friends and residents in Punggol East is this: We know there have been problems in the last three or four years. What we would like to do is put these problems behind us. Get a new fresh start and we will look after our residents well."

At the WP's rally on Sunday night, Mr Low reasserted that Punggol East had an operating deficit of over S$280,000 in April 2013 and said he was waiting for the PAP's response
.

Syria: The Reckoning (Video)

Syria: The Reckoning

2013 ,

Since its independence from France in 1946, Syria has been rocked by periods of political instability.

This documentary tells the story of the past and brings it right up to the present to provide deeper historical context to the events of today as war continues to rage in Syria with the unleashing of many of the forces which had been previously repressed.

As the colonial hold of the great powers began to fade and the region witnessed a wave of Arab nationalism, Syria shifted through a succession of military coups. But in 1970, Hafez al-Assad, an ambitious minister of defense, seized control. Rising from a humble background in western Syria, he was to rule the country for 30 years.

His was an autocratic one-party state in which any dissent was ruthlessly suppressed. Following the death of Hafez in 2000, father was succeeded by son - Bashar al-Assad took the reins and a dynasty was born.