Monday, September 7, 2015

Apple ups hiring, but faces obstacles to making phones smarter

Apple ups hiring, but faces obstacles to making phones smarter

[SAN FRANSCISCO] Apple has ramped up its hiring of artificial intelligence experts, recruiting from PhD programs, posting dozens of job listings and greatly increasing the size of its AI staff, a review of hiring sites suggests and numerous sources confirm.
The goal is to challenge Google in an area the Internet search giant has long dominated: smartphone features that give users what they want before they ask.
As part of its push, the company is currently trying to hire at least 86 more employees with expertise in the branch of artificial intelligence known as machine learning, according to a recent analysis of Apple job postings. The company has also stepped up its courtship of machine-learning PhD's, joining Google, Amazon, Facebook and others in a fierce contest, leading academics say.
But some experts say the iPhone maker's strict stance on privacy is likely to undermine its ability to compete in the rapidly progressing field.
Machine learning, which helps devices infer from experience what users are likely to want next, relies on crunching vast troves of data to provide unprompted services, such as the scores for a favorite sports team or reminders of when to leave for an appointment based on traffic.
The larger the universe of users providing data about their habits, the better predictions can be about what an individual might want. But Apple analyzes its users' behavior under self-imposed constraints to better protect their data from outsiders.
That means Apple largely relies on analyzing the data on each user's iPhone rather than sending it to the cloud, where it can be studied alongside information from millions of others.
"They want to make a phone that responds to you very quickly without knowledge of the rest of the world," said Joseph Gonzalez, co-founder of Dato, a machine learning startup. "It's harder to do that."
The Cupertino-based tech titan's strategy will come into clearer focus on Sept 9, when it is expected to reveal its new iPhones and latest mobile operating system, iOS 9. Apple has promised the release will include a variety of intelligent reminders, which analysts expect will rival the offerings from Google's Android.
While Apple helped pioneer mobile intelligence -it's Siri introduced the concept of a digital assistant to consumers in 2011 - the company has since lost ground to Google and Microsoft, whose digital assistants have become more adept at learning about users and helping them with their daily routines.
As users increasingly demand phones that understand them and tailor services accordingly, Apple cannot afford to let the gap persist, experts say. The iPhone generated almost two-thirds of Apple's revenue in the most recent quarter, so even a small advantage for Android poses a threat.
"What seemed like science fiction only four years ago has become an expectation," said venture capitalist Gary Morgenthaler, who was one of the original investors in Siri before it was acquired by Apple in 2010.
While Apple got off to a slow start on hiring for machine learning jobs, it is closing in on its competitors, said Oren Etzioni, who is CEO of the Allen Institute for Artificial Intelligence and a professor at the University of Washington.
"In the past, Apple has not been at the vanguard of machine learning and cutting edge artificial intelligence work, but that is rapidly changing," he said. "They are after the best and the brightest, just like everybody else."
Acquisitions of startups such as podcasting app Swell, social media analytics firm Topsy and personal assistant app Cue have also expanded Apple's pool of experts in the field.
Apple does not reveal the number of people working on its machine learning efforts.
But one former Apple employee in the area, who asked not to be named to protect professional relationships, estimated the number of machine learning experts had tripled or quadrupled in the past few years.
Many of the currently posted positions are slated for software efforts, from building on Siri's smarts to the burgeoning search features in iOS. The company is also hiring machine learning experts for divisions such as product marketing and retail, suggesting a broad-based effort to capitalize on data.
Apple's hiring mirrors a larger hunt in Silicon Valley for people who can help companies make sense of their huge stashes of data, said Ali Behnam, managing partner of Riviera Partners, an executive search firm. Data scientists are the most sought-after experts in the market, he noted.
Asked for comment about Apple's strategy, a company spokeswoman pointed to statements from Craig Federighi, senior vice president of Software Engineering, who described the release at a developers' conference in June as "adding intelligence throughout the user experience in a way that enhances how you use your device but without compromising your privacy, things like improving the apps that you use most." But Google and others have an edge in spotting larger trends, meaning Apple's predictions may not be as good, said Gonzalez, echoing a commonly held view among machine learning experts.
What's more, there are some features for which Apple has yet to find an answer, such as Now on Tap, which Google will release this fall. When users press the home button, Google will scan their screens to deliver helpful information - a user reading about an upcoming movie, for example, might receive reviews or a list of showtimes. It would be difficult to deliver such services without sending data to the cloud, experts say.
Some techniques Apple and Google are investing in - such as deep learning, a hot field of machine learning that roughly simulates the human brain so that computers can spot patterns and classify information - require massive amounts of data that typically cannot be crunched on the device alone.
For machine learning experts at Apple, access to data complicates the work at every turn, former employees said. Siri enjoys some of Apple's most liberal privacy policies, holding onto user information for up to six months. Other services, such as Apple Maps, retain information for as little as 15 minutes, the former employee said.
Machine learning experts who want unfettered access to data tend to shy away from jobs at Apple, former employees say.
But Apple is strengthening ties to academia to find the talent it will need, attending more industry conferences and discussing its use of tools emerging from university labs, academics say. "They are gradually engaging a little more openly," said Michael Franklin, who directs UC Berkeley's Algorithms, Machines and People Lab, which Apple sponsors.
And some machine learning experts might be enticed by the challenge of matching Google's smarts amid privacy constraints, suggested John Duchi, an assistant professor at Stanford University. "New flavors of problems are exciting," he said.
If Apple succeeds without compromising privacy, its Mountain View rival may face questions about its approach to analyzing users' data. "People might start to ask Google for more privacy," Mr Gonzalez said.
REUTERS

Baidu to boost spending on India, Indonesia as mobile sales boom

Baidu to boost spending on India, Indonesia as mobile sales boom

[TAIPEI] Baidu Inc plans to boost investments in India and Indonesia as China's largest Web search provider tries for a greater presence on smartphones.
"They have a lot of characteristics that mimic China's development," Chief Financial Officer Jennifer Li said during an interview in Beijing on Monday. "There is no legacy of PC user behavior and probably mobile is going to have a very speedy development."
Baidu is spending on new businesses while locked in competition with Alibaba Group Holding Ltd and Tencent Holdings Ltd. In July, Baidu forecast sales below estimates, and Chairman Robin Li pledged to tap its US$12 billion of cash to build out its shopping, taxi and delivery services amid China's economic slowdown.
China saw its first decline in smartphone shipments in six years during the first quarter, while India's shipment volume surged 44 per cent in the second quarter. India is now the world's third-largest smartphone market.
During the past two years, Baidu spent almost US$1 billion on more than 20 investments, including Uber Technologies Inc, travel website Qunar and video-streaming service iQiyi, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The company is now exploring investments in the local education and medical sectors, Mr Li said. The spending likely will be small, with Baidu interested in minority stakes as well as full acquisitions, she said.
Baidu also is keen to make use of its relationships with educational institutions by providing student loans, President Zhang Ya-Qin said in a separate interview. It has issued 100 million yuan (US$15.7 million) in loans, averaging 20,000 yuan each, since starting its lending program last month, he said.
Baidu is working with 50 education providers, including New Oriental Education and Technology Group Inc, and wants to capture 30 per cent of an online educational loans market currently valued at 10 billion yuan annually, he said.
BLOOMBERG

Palm oil prices to remain flat until year end: MPOC Chairman

Palm oil prices to remain flat until year end: MPOC Chairman

[KUALA LUMPUR] Palm oil prices will remain flat until the end of the year, the Chairman of the Malaysian Palm Oil Council said on Monday.
"The industry has been going through a tough period this year with prices hovering between RM2000 and RM2,300 (US$462.16-US$531.48) during the first and second quarter of the year," Lee Yeow Chor said at an event in Kuala Lumpur.
He said the prices were expected to stay flat until end of 2015.
Benchmark Malaysian palm prices slumped to a 6-1/2 year low in August amid a drop in financial markets that was led by a brutal selloff in equities in China, one of the world's top palm oil consumers. Palm prices have shed about 15 per cent this year.
The prices hit a near three-week high on Monday helped by exports and a weaker ringgit.
REUTERS

Commodity finance slump threatens global trading, report says

Commodity finance slump threatens global trading, report says

[GENEVA] Small and mid-sized commodity traders are being squeezed as banks retreat from global trade finance or offer the "wrong type" of loans, according to law firm Clyde & Co.
Trade finance is harder to access today than it was a decade ago, according to 77 per cent of companies and executives surveyed in the report to be published Monday by the London- based legal firm. Bank-led trade finance has slumped by half from a peak of US$14 trillion before the global financial crisis in 2008 to about US$7 trillion, Clyde & Co said. That's forcing traders and commodity producers to rely on a "complex patchwork" of financing to meet their needs.
"That is a massive drop in trade finance, which has meant there is a massive gap for producers, suppliers, commodity traders, logistic companies and purchasers," Philip Prowse, a partner at Clyde & Co, said in a phone interview from London.  Banks which once provided as much as 80 per cent of the financing for the trading of commodities worldwide now account for about 50 per cent, according to estimates from the Bank for International Settlements. That's forced some to seek out alternatives such as private equity, trade-finance funds or credit provided by major commodity-trading houses.
The majority of traders and other respondents to the survey said they can access trade-finance structures such as revolving- credit facilities and receivables financing. These options aren't sufficient as 70 per cent said they would like to see a return to old-style "relationship" banking structures. Almost 80 per cent said they wanted a return to pre-export structured financing and about 90 per cent of respondents to the survey said they wanted more creativity and lending options tailored to their needs.  "Where we are in trade finance today is not really fit for purpose," Mr Prowse said.  Increased regulatory scrutiny and more stringent lending rules, including greater capital requirements for loans as well as bank balance sheet restructuring, have suppressed both the capacity and appetite of banks to lend, according to the report, BNP Paribas SA, once the dominant bank in commodity trade finance, has cut commodity and energy-finance staff in Geneva and reduced or halted credit to some clients.
Emmanuel Rogy, head of energy and commodity finance at BNP, told Swiss newspaper Tribune de Geneve in April that commodity trade finance had become "less important" for the bank. BNP agreed to pay a record US$8.97 billion fine to the US government in June 2014 and pleaded guilty to processing banned transactions involving Sudan, Iran and Cuba.  As banks like BNP withdraw, lenders from the Middle East and Asia are stepping in with trade-finance units. These new options are not seeing widespread adoption or proving entirely satisfactory, according to the report.  The World Trade Organization expects the global population to surpass 9 billion by 2050, with much of the growth in emerging markets in Africa and Asia.
"In order to make sure that population is looked after we need trading relationships to move commodities around the globe from where they are produced to where they are needed," said Prowse. "For trading relationships we need trade finance."
BLOOMBERG

Global copper market to see shortage in 2-3 years: Rio Tinto

Global copper market to see shortage in 2-3 years: Rio Tinto

[SINGAPORE] Global copper markets could flip into a structural shortage within two to three years as demand from power stations makes it the first commodity to come out of a glut, Rio Tinto said.
Currently prices of several commodities - including oil, natural gas, coal, iron ore and metals - are near lows seen during the financial crisis of 2008-2009, hurt by the combined impact of stronger output and a sharper-than-expected slowdown in key consumer China.
Copper, however, is expected to be the first commodity to shake the glut off, Rio Tinto's chief executive of copper and coal, Jean-Sebastien Jacques, told Reuters on the sidelines of the Financial Times Commodities Retreat in Singapore on Monday.
"Market conditions are challenging but copper is an attractive commodity. In the next 2-3 years we could move into a shortage," he said.
Tighter supply would help underpin global copper prices that have plunged 20 per cent in the past two years and hit a six-year low of $4,855 per tonne last month. Analysts in a Reuters poll conducted in July forecast an oversupply of 194,000 tonnes this year and 262,500 tonnes next year.
Despite the current oversupply and low prices, Rio Tinto's Jacques reinforced the policy of mining majors of keeping output high in order to squeeze out smaller higher-cost competitors.
"We are in the business of mining for the long run. We need to create revenue. We are getting through the current challenging phase by saving costs through improving efficiency, not by cutting output," he said.
Shares of the miner plunged to A$46.60 ($32.30) last month, the lowest since 2009, and are down 15 per cent so far in 2015.
Anglo-Australian Rio Tinto plans to produce more than 500 million tonnes of copper this year, accounting for about 15 per cent of its total revenues.
Growth in demand for the metal will be primarily driven by the power sector, where it is used as a conductor, Mr Jacques said.
"The power sector is one of the main drivers for copper, but also coal. No matter how much nuclear and renewables are built you will still need coal if you want to provide electricity to everyone," he added. "Despite the current slowdown there is still significant growth potential in China and at some point also in India and Southeast Asia," Mr Jacques said.
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