Sunday, September 6, 2015

UK manufacturers halve 2015 growth forecast as export orders slump

UK manufacturers halve 2015 growth forecast as export orders slump

[LONDON] Britain's main manufacturing lobby has halved its forecast for growth this year after overseas orders fell to their lowest since the financial crisis, while recruiters said skills shortages were leading to higher wages but slower job growth.
British manufacturing expanded 3.1 per cent last year, its best performance since 2010, but the EEF manufacturers'organisation said on Monday that it expected growth to slow this year to just 0.7 per cent, down from an earlier forecast of 1.5 per cent. "While UK data has continued to point to solid growth, UK manufacturing is having to contend with a roller-coaster of risks from the rest of the world, and the white-knuckle ride is starting to take its toll," EEF chief economist Lee Hopley said.
Uncertainty about the scale of an economic slowdown in China have caused share prices there to tumble in recent weeks, and both the United States and China have reported the slowest manufacturing activity in more than two years.
The EEF said the proportion of British manufacturers reporting growth was the lowest since late 2009, and that new export orders had edged down to a six-year low, a weaker picture than a similar survey had shown last week.
But for central bank policymakers in Britain and the United States, who are considering when to start to raise interest rates, the broader picture is mixed. Domestic conditions are strong, and tight labour market is starting to push up wages.
A survey by the Recruitment and Employment Confederation, which represents staffing agencies, said the number of people its members had placed in permanent jobs had risen by the smallest amount in more than two years.
"Although demand for staff remained strong, placements had in many cases been held back by a lack of skilled candidates," it said, adding that the number of people looking for work had fallen by the largest amount in a year.
Pay rose faster than average after growing at its slowest pace in 18 months in July.
The latest official data showed British wages excluding bonuses rose by 2.8 per cent in the second quarter of the year, the biggest annual real-terms rise since mid-2007, while total employment edged down from the first quarter's record high.
REUTERS

Asia: Markets on edge ahead of China data

Asia: Markets on edge ahead of China data

[HONG KONG] Asian stocks opened on a cautious note as China revised down its 2014 growth figure and prepared to release more data that will give clues on the slowing economy, a prospect that has global investors on edge.
However, a weaker than expected US jobs report reduced the chances of an interest rate hike later this month, analysts said, providing some much-needed support to the Australian dollar which is sitting at six-year lows against the greenback.
In the face of the latest bout of volatility, G20 finance ministers and central bank heads pledged at the weekend to shore up economic growth and avoid a currency war following China's yuan devaluation last month that convulsed markets.
Eyes this week are again on China, which will release a string of indicators - from inflation and retail sales to trade and investment - that will provide a handle on the state of the world's number-two economy.
A painful slowdown in growth in the country has seen huge losses on global stock markets - including about 40 percent in Shanghai - despite Beijing's attempts to provide support, including five interest rate cuts since November.
"The key focus this week would be China as the market reopens," said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney. "Investors are increasingly concerned about the slowdown in the Chinese economy," he told Bloomberg News.
There were hefty losses last week after an official gauge of factory activity came in at a three-year low, showing contraction.
And on Monday Beijing said the economy grew last year at a slower rate than initially thought, expanding 7.3 per cent instead of the 7.4 per cent first stated, its slowest rate in a quarter of a century.
While experts cautioned against reading too much into the manufacturing figures, another soft set of readings this week could be an excuse to sell.
Analysts say China needs to rebalance its economy so that it relies more on consumer demand and less on lavish state spending. A successful transition is seen as crucial for the worldwide economy.
In early exchanges Monday, Shanghai was 0.20 per cent higher as dealers returned from a four-day break, while Hong Kong lost 0.39 per cent and Tokyo shed 0.36 per cent by lunch. Sydney, where several firms reliant on China for business are listed, was 0.60 per cent off.
However, the "Aussie" dollar edged up against its US counterpart after Friday's jobs data muddied the waters for US Federal Reserve policymakers as they decide whether to lift rates this month.
The Labor Department said the economy added 173,000 jobs in August, although the previous two months' job gains were revised upwards, pushing the unemployment rate down more than expected to 5.1 per cent.
"We're seeing the negative effects from China and emerging economies," said Shoji Hirakawa, chief equity strategist at Okasan Securities.
"The US has started seeing that there's a risk of contagion as China's economy slows. The jobless rate fell, but labour participation was weaker. I think a rate hike in September will be difficult," he said.
On Monday the Aussie was at 69.34 US cents against 69.09 cents Friday, which was a fresh six-year low.
US shares slipped after the jobs figures, providing a negative lead to Asia. The S&P 500 retreated 1.53 per cent, the Dow sank 1.66 per cent and the Nasdaq lost 1.05 per cent.
AFP

China: Stocks rise at market open as regulators calm investors

China: Stocks rise at market open as regulators calm investors

[SHANGHAI] China major stock indexes rose in early trading on Monday following remarks by regulators to calm the market.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) said in a post on its official microblog late on Sunday that markets were more stable and risks associated with high levels of leverage have eased following a period of high volatility.
The CSI300 index rose 0.6 per cent to 3,385.40 points at 1:35 GMT, while the Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.9 per cent to 3,188.58 points.
China CSI300 stock index futures for September rose 5.3 per cent, to 3,188, -197.40 points below the current value of the underlying index.
The Hang Seng index in Hong Kong was up 0.8 per cent, to 21,016.56 points.
REUTERS

Mobius to Beijing: Quit fighting the market and let stocks fall

Mobius to Beijing: Quit fighting the market and let stocks fall

[BEIJING] How do you get a bottom-up stock picker, a chart watcher and an economist to agree? Try asking them about Chinese equities.
Mark Mobius, Tom DeMark and George Magnus - world-renowned forecasters who view markets through three very different lenses - are all finding common ground with their predictions that Chinese shares have further to drop. They say government efforts to prop up the US$5.1 trillion market are futile, a view that's gaining traction among analysts after an unprecedented two-month rescue effort failed to spark a sustained rally.
"I'd expect the government to be reducing intervention," Mr Mobius, the Franklin Resources Inc money manager who's been investing in emerging markets for more than four decades, said in an interview in Hong Kong on Friday. "They realise it's not working." Authorities may be more receptive to declining share prices now that the country's World War II victory parade - seen as a platform for President Xi Jinping to project China's strength on the world stage - has passed without incident. Mainland exchanges, shut since Sept 2 for national holidays to celebrate the war anniversary, will reopen Monday facing a range of indicators that suggest investors see more declines.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index will probably drop another 18 per cent to 2,590 before prices bottom out, Mr DeMark, who has spent more than 40 years developing indicators to identify market turning points, said in an interview on Aug 31. Mr Magnus, a senior independent economic adviser to UBS Group AG, says the government needs to allow the gauge to slump to between 2,500 and 2,800.
"China should have seen how futile their intervention is," said Cedric Ma, a Hong Kong-based senior investment strategist at Convoy Asset Management Ltd. "The government will let the markets continue to correct." Traders are positioning for further downside in the options market, where bearish contracts on the mainland-listed China 50 ETF climbed to the most expensive level on record versus bullish ones last week. In the US, an ETF designed to make money when Chinese shares fall has recorded a 60-fold surge in assets since June.
Foreign money managers have sold Shanghai equities through the city's cross-border exchange link for four straight days, bringing outflows since July 3 to US$4.9 billion. Valuation gaps between dual-listed shares are approaching the widest levels since 2009, a sign that international investors in Hong Kong are even more pessimistic than their mainland counterparts.
"The China market is still viewed as over-valued," said Andrew Sullivan, the head of sales trading at Haitong International Securities Group Ltd. in Hong Kong. "Because of the government intervention, it hasn't had a real clear-out." Chinese authorities intervened in the stock market on Aug 27 to stabilise prices before the Sept 3 military parade, according to people familiar with the matter. Signs of support persisted through last week as large-capitalization companies - favored targets of state-linked funds - rallied toward the end of each trading session.
The Shanghai Composite still ended the week with a 2.2 per cent drop. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index of Hong Kong-listed shares retreated 6 per cent, while the Bloomberg China-US Equity Index slid 8 per cent.
Even if the government pares back direct intervention, it still has plenty of market-friendly ways to support the broader economy, according to Bruce Yu, a money manager at Franklin Templeton SinoAm in Taipei. Policy makers may increase fiscal spending and push ahead with plans to make state-owned enterprises more efficient, he said.
Japan's experience in the 1960s shows state support measures can work, according to Paul Sheard, chief global economist at Standard & Poor's in New York. Japanese authorities helped set up rescue funds to buy equities after a big selloff in 1963. Shares ultimately rebounded and economic development continued.
China's intervention prevented systemic risk and stopped the free-fall in equities, central bank Governor Zhou Xiaochuan said in a statement Saturday after a meeting by finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 nations. Declines in shares are almost over and financial markets are expected to be more stable, he said.
For Alex Wong, a Hong Kong-based asset-management director at Ample Capital Ltd, Chinese stocks are still too expensive to lure non-state investors.
Equities on mainland bourses traded at a median 45 times reported earnings last week. That's the highest among the 10 largest markets and more than twice the 18 multiple for the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. The Shanghai Composite, where low- priced banks have some of the biggest weightings, has a ratio of 16.
"It wouldn't be surprising to see another 5 to 10 per cent fall during big volatility this week," Mr Wong said. The government "can't buy stocks forever," he said.
BLOOMBERG

Beijing admits stock bubbles, says routs almost over

Beijing admits stock bubbles, says routs almost over

[BEIJING] China's central bank governor and its market regulator have admitted that there were "bubbles" on the country's stock exchanges, after a spectacular rally was followed by a painful bust, but said the turbulence was coming to an end.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index by more than 150 per cent in the year to June 12, fuelled by debt rather than fundamentals and encouraged by authorities.
It has since plummeted nearly 40 per cent since then, with official interventions to the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars failing to arrest the declines.
People's Bank of China (PBoC) Governor Zhou Xiaochuan pointed to the March-June period in particular, when the Shanghai index leaped 70 per cent.
"Bubbles continued to build up until mid-June," he told a G20 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors in Ankara at the weekend, according to a statement on the PBoC website.
"Since mid-June, three rounds of corrections took place in China's stock market," he went on. "The first two did not have international impact, while the third one in late August (had) some global influence." Chinese bourses are largely separated from the rest of the world's financial system by limits on investment from overseas. But news last week of a contraction in an official gauge of Chinese factory activity sent domestic and world markets into a tailspin on worries the economy was headed for a "hard landing".
"The correction in the stock market has now come close to an end," Mr Zhou said in the statement, refraining from using the word "burst" and adding the Chinese economy was not "much affected" by the rout.
The market regulator, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), echoed his comments in a statement on Sunday.
"Gains on the stock market had been too rapid and large, forming stock market bubbles, therefore subsequent plunges and adjustments were inevitable," it said.
"At present, market risks and bubbles have been released to some extent," it added.
Analysts estimate the Chinese government has spent hundreds of billions of dollars to prop up stock prices, including funding state-backed China Securities Finance Corp. (CSF) to buy shares.
But investors worry the government will reduce its intervention, given the huge cost for little effect, and the market's limited impact on the real economy.
The CSRC sought to reassure traders, saying: "When fierce and abnormal volatilities take place in the stock market and may trigger systemic risks, the government will absolutely not sit back.
"We will take decisive and multiple measures to stabilise the market in a timely manner," it said, adding the CSF will "continue to play a stabilising role".
"Market transactions are basically normal and the liquidity is ample," it added.
The state-owned China Securities Journal reported last week that securities firms were transferring more funds to the CSF to help stabilise the market, with the additional amount estimated at more than 30 billion yuan (S$6.72 billion).
The benchmark Shanghai stock index edged up 0.16 per cent to 3,165.33 in mid-morning Monday, on the first day of trade after an extended holiday weekend.
AFP

US: Stock markets closed on Monday for holiday

US: Stock markets closed on Monday for holiday

[NEW YORK] US stock markets will be closed on Monday for the Labour Day holiday. They reopen on Tuesday with a normal schedule.
AFP

USA: Top Terrorist State (Video)



USA: Top Terrorist State

 

USA: Top Terrorist State
Renowned American academic Noam Chomsky says the United States would be recognized as a leading terrorist state if international law is applied. This documentary conducts an in-depth interview with Noam Chomsky in which the double standards of the Western states with regard to the issue of nuclear weapons are dealt with in detail.
"I took the official definitions of terrorism, which were very good, I took the definition that is given in US and British law, which is a fine definition but has a flaw; If you apply it, it turns out the United States is one of the leading terrorist states in the world."
The academic added that he had predicted the ongoing so-called war on terror by the US when Ronald Reagan was president in the 1980s.
He called into question the legality of the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003, saying, "The US and Britain tried to provide a kind of a thin legal cover for the invasion. The legal cover was, as you know, that Saddam had not ended his programs of weapons of mass destruction."

The Islamic State (Video)


The Islamic State

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The Islamic State
The Islamic State (IS), formerly known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), permitted filmmaker and Vice News journalist Medyan Dairieh to have exclusive access to their operations for three weeks, allowing viewers insight into the horrifying inner world of jihadist militant extremists.
Devastating footage of executions and men lying beheaded in the street illustrates the severity of the threat of the Islamic State. Militants patrol the streets to ensure their religious standards are being upheld, and citizens are encouraged to report any transgressors, even if they are family members. One man is stopped and instructed to make his wife change the fabric of her veil, and although the tone is polite it is clear the requestor is telling, not asking. The influence of the enforcers is evident - prisoners who have dared disobey the IS laws are full of self-blame, accepting their punishments to be the will of Allah. Disobedience will not be tolerated by man or God.
Preaching centers serve as meeting grounds for fanatics young and old as they celebrate their faith by raising guns above their heads and sing songs of triumph over America and the European countries. As the borders between Syria and Iraq are crossed, IS fighters defend their growth, ever insistent that their actions are defended by the will of their God, even as women and children lay bloodied and dying before them.
Operating under Caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, a self-proclaimed descendant of the Prophet, followers are taught to surrender everything to him, be it their money or their lives. Interviews with young boys attending a Mosque service demonstrate the fundamentalist mindset that is being ingrained in the local children, who are as eager as their adult counterparts to enact what they believe to be God's will through acts of violence and self-sacrifice.
It is the belief of the adults that their hardships bring them closer to their God and that the children are meant to be "the generation of the Caliphate" who will combat the Americans and their "infidel" allies. Those under fifteen are sent to Shariah camp to learn about their religion, while older teens are sent to military camp to train for combat; however, it is not uncommon for the younger children to already be practiced in handling arms and bracing for conflict.
The Islamic State is a stark, harrowing wake-up call to the realities of religious fundamentalism in the Middle East and the corruption of generations being raised to believe violence is the best defense of their beliefs.

GE2015: Tharman says Singapore must continue restructuring to sustain wage growth

GE2015: Tharman says Singapore must continue restructuring to sustain wage growth

By
nishar@sph.com.sg@Nisha_BT
In order to sustain the real income growth experienced by middle and lower income households in recent years, Singapore will need to continue its restructuring efforts, said Deputy Prime Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam.
For their part, firms will need to continue working to boost productivity, as well as do their part by recognising the value in older Singaporeans in the workforce by training them and giving them good jobs.
Speaking to reporters on Sunday at Taman Jurong Food Centre, he highlighted that Singapore has performed "unusually" well since the global financial crisis by international standards, with median and lower income households experiencing growth in real income over 2010-2014 - unlike some of Singapore's regional peers and some developed countries.
Sustaining real income growth will be a challenge, especially when taking into account today's uncertain and sluggish economic environment, with China slowing faster than expected.
"We have to find the right balance in our economic strategies, making sure that a large segment of our businesses can survive, do well and upgrade," he pointed out.
Over-tightening foreign labour policies will "wipe out" Singapore's businesses - especially in the SME sector - while maintaining the status quo of SMEs being mired in low productivity is not an option either.
Sustaining productivity improvements will require programmes on the ground, working with business associations, unions, entrepreneurs as well as employees themselves, he underlined.
While Singapore is making progress, it has to continue on its path of restructuring in order to sustain wage growth, he said. "We also want to pay particular attention not just to the young...but our middle-aged Singaporeans, including the PMEs. They're the ones who find it really tough when they lose their jobs."
The government will do more to help this segment but employers also have to do their part in a permanently tight labour market, he stressed, adding there cannot be discrimination against older Singaporeans in the workforce.
"There's going to be no U-turn in our labour policies. Employers have to recognise the value in every middle-aged Singaporean. Recognise their value, train them up, give them good jobs and give them good career prospects."

GE2015: SDP says high living costs mainly due to land prices

GE2015: SDP says high living costs mainly due to land prices


[SINGAPORE] Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) candidates for Holland-Bukit Timah GRC sought to defend their proposals at the party's fourth rally held on Sunday evening.
Speaking at Jurong East Stadium, SDP secretary-general Chee Soon Juan said that the rapid rise in living costs in Singapore were mainly driven by high land prices, adding that the biggest landlord was the Government.
He said this after People's Action Party (PAP) candidate Liang Eng Hwa said on Saturday that the SDP's proposal to institute a minimum wage for foreigners could lead businesses to pass on the higher wages to consumers and drive up costs of living further.
Dr Chee's fellow SDP candidate in the GRC, medical school professor Paul Tambyah, added that a minimum wage for foreign workers would mean that Singaporeans would not have to compete against low-wage foreign workers for jobs and exploitation of low-wage workers would also end.


Dr Tambyah also said the party was not suggesting healthcare should be completely free in Singapore, saying that there would need to be some co-payments as well but these should be kept to a minimum.
On Saturday, Deputy Prime Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam had pointed out that providing free healthcare would necessarily mean higher taxes on middle-income workers.

Saudi central banker sees no threat to currency's dollar

Saudi central banker sees no threat to currency's dollar

[ANKARA] Central bank Governor Fahad Al-Mubarak said Saudi Arabia will stick with its currency peg as long as oil underpins the economy, dismissing speculation that the country's currency system is coming under pressure.
Investors have increased bets that Saudi Arabia and others in the region will be next to drop their pegs after China devalued the yuan and Kazakhstan allowed its currency to float. One-year forward contracts for the Saudi riyal, an indicator of where investors expect it to trade, are near the highest since 2003.
"Looking at our economy now, in the near future and for many years to come, oil will be dominant in our economy so keeping the peg will be our policy," Mr Al-Mubarak said in a Bloomberg Television interview in Ankara, where he attended the G-20 meeting of global finance chiefs. "Stability is very important to the Saudi government, to Saudi investors and international investors."  The peg of 3.75 riyals to the dollar has "served our economy well" for more than three decades and recent volatility in the forwards market reflected speculation, he said. "Definitely we're solid and confident that this is a good policy for our exchange rate," Mr Al-Mubarak said.
The governor said he expects the economy to expand more than 3 per cent this year, exceeding the 2.8 per cent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. That will help the budget deficit better the International Monetary Fund's forecast of a gap equal to 20 percent of economic output, he said.
"We're confident that our economy will continue to grow," especially in the private and non-oil sectors, said the former Morgan Stanley banker.
Saudi Arabia's non-oil business activity accelerated to a five-month high in August, according to the Emirates NBD and Markit Economics Purchasing Managers Index.
Mr Al-Mubarak's comments may reassure investors rattled by the 50 per cent drop in Brent crude prices over the past 12 months and the dive in emerging-market stocks after China's surprise decision to revalue the yuan. Saudi Arabia's benchmark Tadawul All Share Index climbed 0.6 per cent at the close in Riyadh after his remarks, trimming this year's losses to 10.9 per cent.
"I am not concerned," Al-Mubarak said when asked about the drop in the kingdom's equity market. "Saudi Arabia isn't immune from international markets. We've seen it in the currency forwards market, in the stock market. It went down and rebounded. We're part of the global system."
BLOOMBERG

Migration crisis tears at EU's cohesion and tarnishes its image

Migration crisis tears at EU's cohesion and tarnishes its image

[BRUSSELS] Deep divisions over how to cope with a flood of migrants from the Middle East, Africa and Asia pose a threat to the European Union's values and global standing and may diminish its ability to act jointly to reform the euro zone and ease Greece's debt.
With harrowing images of drowning children, refugees being herded on and off trains and beaten by police, and barbed-wire fences slicing across Europe, the migration crisis is the moral equivalent of the euro zone crisis. In both cases, the principle of solidarity is being sorely tested.
By making the EU look ineffective, disunited and heartless, pitting member states against each other and fuelling political populism and anti-Muslim sentiment, the latest crisis is undermining the ideals of European integration.
However, it often takes a bout of disarray and recrimination before the EU finds a joint response to a new challenge. Policy may be shifting in reaction to unbearable pictures of suffering, and to fears that the Schengen zone of open-border travel among 26 continental European countries may otherwise fall apart. "The world is watching us," German Chancellor Angela Merkel said last week as she tried to persuade European peers to share the burden of taking in people fleeing war and misery in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and beyond. "If Europe fails on the refugee question, its tight bond with universal human rights will be destroyed, and it will no longer be the Europe we dreamed of," she said.
Ms Merkel's bold attempt to exercise leadership, in contrast to her deep caution in the euro crisis, has won only cautious support from close allies like France, where domestic opposition to more immigration is strong, and been rejected outright by countries such as Hungary and Britain.
For many European politicians trying to keep in tune with voters, preventing unwanted immigration is a greater priority than welcoming hundreds of thousands of haggard, uprooted foreigners, especially if they are Muslims.
For the first time in a decade since 10 central European countries joined the EU, the crisis has opened up an east-west divide, with most new member states refusing to accept quotas of refugees, some explicitly citing religious grounds.
That prompted Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann to say that, if the eastern states did not share the burden, the EU should reconsider its future financial aid for their development.
Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia, from which refugees fled to western Europe to escape Communist crackdowns in 1956 and 1968, are among those most vehemently opposed to any mandatory distribution of asylum seekers now.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has said the migrants pose a threat to Europe's "Christian roots", while both Slovakia and the Czech Republic have said they would take in only a handful of preferably Christian refugees.
Mr Orban has accused Ms Merkel of exacerbating the crisis by announcing Germany's willingness to admit large numbers of Syrians, encouraging more migrants to risk their lives in a scramble for Europe that has overwhelmed Hungarian authorities.
"Since the beginning of the euro crisis, Europe became part of the moral problem, not part of the solution," said Antonio Vitorino, president of the Jacques Delors Institute, a pro-EU think-tank. "This migration crisis adds a little bit more to the loss of the exemplary role of European integration."
The socialist Portuguese former EU justice and home affairs commissioner, who helped frame the flawed asylum rules that have crumbled under the weight of this year's influx, said Europe's profile as "a land of human dignity and respect for international commitments" was at stake.
In areas of the world such as southeast Asia and Latin America that once looked to the EU as a model of regional integration, people were now saying: "You used to teach us how to solve our problems, and now you're unable to solve your own problems."
Mr Vitorino acknowledged that the Dublin convention he helped draft, which stipulates that the country where a refugee first enters the EU is responsible for handling the asylum claim, was unfair to states on Europe's fringes, which received little financial or practical help. "Practice shows that the system did not work," he said. "Now things have got out of control."
Europe needed a common asylum policy capable of filtering applicants, sending home those who were not entitled to asylum and relocating genuine refugees according to member states'capacity to receive them.
As EU leaders struggle to come up with a joint approach, their discord also bodes ill for attempts to find collective solutions to economic and environmental challenges such as reforming the euro zone or fighting climate change. "The EU has trouble handling more than one problem at a time," said Tina Fordham, chief global political analyst at US banking giant Citi, who considers the migration crisis a major source of political risk for Europe. "Discord and backtracking over refugees and migration could end up fragmenting EU cohesion, taking away the political oxygen to deal with other challenges in the economy or Ukraine," she told Reuters<\i> in an interview.
Governments could fall over the issue and upcoming elections could be swayed. Already, the rise of anti-immigration populist parties was putting the Nordic social model at risk.
Ms Fordham also saw a possible impact on Britain's negotiations to change its relationship with the EU before it holds a referendum on continued membership by the end of 2017. "The UK's perceived failure to participate in burden-sharing could further undermine David Cameron's ability to extract concessions ahead of the referendum," she said.
Mr Cameron has refused to join any European scheme to relocate refugees, and insisted the answer was not to take in more people until he bowed to media pressure after an outpouring of emotion over pictures of a drowned Syrian toddler on a Turkish beach.
Mr Peter Kellner, president of the opinion pollster YouGov, said the refugee crisis and British public anxiety about uncontrolled immigration from EU countries made a vote for "Brexit" more likely, though still not the most probable outcome.
"In the public mind they feed a single narrative: that Britain is being swamped by new arrivals and the EU carries much of the blame," Mr Kellner wrote in a comment for Prospect magazine.
REUTERS

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