Wednesday, August 19, 2015

Gold climbs to 5-week high as Sept Fed hike hopes fizzle

Gold climbs to 5-week high as Sept Fed hike hopes fizzle


[MANILA] Gold rose to its highest in nearly five weeks on Thursday after minutes from the Federal Reserve's policy meeting last month signalled that a hike in US interest rates in September may be unlikely.
Fed officials worried that lagging US inflation and a weak global economy posed too big a risk to commit to a "lift off" on rates, buoying gold that had been out of favour amid an imminent tightening in US monetary policy. "Given that the possibility for a hike in September has diminished, I would think there is a higher probability for a December rate hike. And that does give a near-term support to gold prices," said Barnabas Gan, analyst at OCBC Bank in Singapore.
Spot gold touched US$1,135.20 an ounce, its loftiest since July 17, and was flat at US$1,134 by 0232 GMT.
US gold for December delivery rose half a per cent to US$1,133.80 an ounce.


Spot gold has now recovered more than 5 per cent from a 5-1/2-year low of US$1,077 reached in a late July rout.
The precious metal is on track for a second weekly gain after ending its longest retreat since 1999, having benefited last week from uncertainty posed by China's surprise devaluation of its currency.
A potential delay in a rate increase to December offers upside potential for non-interest bearing gold, with OCBC's Gan seeing initial resistance at US$1,150, a level last seen in May.
Many analysts had been betting on a rate hike when Fed officials next meet in September given sustained strength in the world's largest economy. But some thought policymakers might take a gradual approach in lifting rates after China's yuan devaluation.
MKS Group trader Samuel Laughlin said gold closing above US$1,132 on Wednesday was "technically bullish" for the metal, adding "we may see a move towards US$1,145-$1,150 in the short term." Amid the bullish tone for gold, spot platinum matched Wednesday's five-week high of US$1,014 an ounce and was last up 0.2 per cent at US$1,013.50. Palladium slipped 0.2 per cent to US$609.20 per ounce and silver was steady at US$15.31.
REUTERS

Oil approaches key US$40 level in Asian trade

Oil approaches key US$40 level in Asian trade


[SINGAPORE] Oil prices slid to a fresh six and a half year low in Asia on Thursday, approaching the key US$40 a barrel level after a surprise rise in US inventories added to concerns of a supply glut.
US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) for delivery in September, which expires on Thursday, dipped 32 cents to US$40.48 after falling sharply in New York to its lowest level since March 2009.
Brent crude for October dropped 25 cents to US$46.91 a barrel.
"US stockpiles unexpectedly expanded when the market was looking at a contraction, which heightened the global oversupply concerns," said Bernard Aw, a market strategist at IG Markets in Singapore.


"This added pressure to crude prices, and we see WTI drop below US$41, heading towards the key US$40 level. We could see more downsides, given that the current conditions remain unfavourable to oil."
The US Department of Energy on Wednesday said oil stockpiles rose 2.6 million barrels in the week ending August 14, and reported a 300,000 barrel rise at the closely watched Cushing, Oklahoma trading hub.
The surprise jump in inventories at a time when they normally fall added to concerns of a global surplus, particularly as signs emerge that demand is faltering in top energy importer China.
Analysts predict oil could now reach levels not seen since the throes of the financial crisis, pressured by a strong dollar and the anticipated return of Iranian oil to world markets.
But Daniel Ang, an investment analyst with Phillip Futures in Singapore, said he expects WTI to be supported at US$40 a barrel in Thursday's trading session.
"Technically, we are still seeing a very bearish momentum, however for prices to break below US$40 is going to be an arduous task," he said.
"We see US$40 for WTI to be a strong psychological support. Thus, we would unlikely think that this would break during Asian hours (Thursday)."
AFP

Yuan declines as IMF board delays potential yuan addition to SDR

Yuan declines as IMF board delays potential yuan addition to SDR


[BEIJING] China's yuan fell the most in a week after the International Monetary Fund pushed back the earliest date that it can join the lender's basket of reserve currencies.
The IMF's executive board voted Aug 11 to extend the existing Special Drawing Rights basket by nine months to Sept 30, 2016, it said Wednesday. That followed an IMF staff report in July that recommended the extension to minimize disruption if the yuan is approved for inclusion at a review in November. The yuan in Shanghai fell the most in two decades on the day of the IMF vote as China devalued its currency. The People's Bank of China raised its daily reference rate by the most since June.
"The IMF executive board vote is slightly negative for the yuan today as the inclusion will be delayed," said Banny Lam, co-head of research at Agricultural Bank of China International Securities in Hong Kong. "That said, any major yuan depreciation is unlikely in the near term after such a big adjustment last week. It's time for some stability." The yuan fell 0.06 per cent to 6.3994 per dollar as of 10 am in Shanghai, based on China Foreign Exchange Trade System prices. The spot rate is allowed to trade as much as 2 per cent on either side of the PBOC's reference rate, which was strengthened 0.08 per cent to 6.3915.
In Hong Kong's offshore market, the freely-traded yuan weakened 0.07 per cent to 6.4460 per dollar, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.


The IMF is sending a clear message that greater exchange- rate flexibility is needed for the yuan to win reserve-currency status, Michael Every, Hong Kong-based head of financial markets research, said Thursday.
BLOOMBERG

Malaysia's central bank denies issuing circular on fixing orders: spokeswoman

Malaysia's central bank denies issuing circular on fixing orders: spokeswoman


[KUALA LUMPUR] Malaysia's central bank on Thursday denied reports that it has issued a circular prohibiting local banks from taking orders for transactions from offshore banks at the daily fixing rates, according to a spokeswoman.
Local newspaper The Sun reported earlier on Thursday that the central bank, or Bank Negara Malaysia, has issued the ban after the ringgit plunged to 4.10 to the dollar last Friday. Foreign exchange reserves also dropped to below the US$100 billion threshold in July. "There is no such thing," Bank Negara Malaysia's spokeswoman said when contacted by phone.
The ringgit is the worst performing emerging Asian currency this year, and has fallen to pre-peg 17-year lows. Analysts say one reason is reduced confidence in Malaysia as indebted state fund 1Malaysia Development Bhd is being probed for financial mismanagement, triggering a political crisis for Prime Minister Najib Razak.
REUTERS

China: Shanghai stocks fall 1.04% at open

China: Shanghai stocks fall 1.04% at open


[SHANGHAI] Shanghai stocks fell 1.04 per cent on Thursday morning following volatile trading the previous day, dealers said.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index fell 39.54 points to 3,754.57.
The Shenzhen Composite Index, which tracks stocks on China's second exchange, gave up 0.94 per cent, or 20.93 points, to 2,201.12.
AFP



Rex to preserve cash, focus on Oman and Norway assets amid oil price downturn

Rex to preserve cash, focus on Oman and Norway assets amid oil price downturn


REX International Holding said on Thursday it is reducing capital investments and focusing on key discovery assets in Oman and Norway to preserve cash due to the downturn in oil prices.
The oil exploration and production firm is also making organisational changes to boost its management bench strength, especially in the area of geology and geophysics, as well as to reduce operating costs.
On Wednesday, US oil prices tumbled to a fresh six-year low on the latest signs of a glut in crude supplies. Both the benchmark crude-oil price in the US and the global benchmark are at sub-US$50 a barrel. Crude prices have more than halved since their high last June.
Rex said it has moderated its drilling plans and operations budget to concentrate on assets in Oman, where it is confident of the concession's potential, and in Norway, where the intention is to stay the course with the drilling plan, given Lime Petroleum Norway's healthy acreage position.


It has further done a review of its asset portfolio to sustain these assets at the oil price of US$50 per barrel.
Management-wise, it is finalising the appointment of an industry veteran as chief operating officer. Further details will be provided in due course.
Meanwhile, Kristofer Skantze will be re-designated as business development manager to grow the clientele for Rex Technology Management and Rexonic AG.
Henceforth, both Mr Skantze and CEO Mans Lidgren will be based in Europe to be closer to and have more direct oversight of business operations in Norway and Oman, where Rex will focus its activities in the next year.
Mr Lidgren said: "Even though our oil production operations are very small, Rex's share price has been impacted by the volatility of oil prices, the potential supply of Iranian crude to the market, the Greek debt crisis, the meltdown of the China stock market and most recently, the effects of China's devaluation of the yuan on Asian bourses.
"At today's market value of the company of about US$109 million and with US$96 million in liquid assets comprising cash and cash equivalents and quoted investments, the remaining group's assets are only valued by the market at US$13 million.
"There are of course several risks involved in oil exploration but based on an asset potential alone, we believe that we have been undervalued by the market. And that is not taking into consideration our proprietary technology RVD, which may not have been ascribed much or any value by the market.
"In order to adapt to the downturn in oil prices, the volatile market outlook and smaller market capitalisation, Rex has done an in-depth cost review of its contracts with external service providers and suppliers, as well as internal operating costs to reduce costs, the effects of which would likely be seen from 2016."
All that said, Rex remains in a good financial position as at the end of the first half of 2015, with zero debt and a strong enough balance sheet to see it through its preliminary drilling plans at least up till 2017 without any short-term funding needs.
This is significant in the current environment where access to capital raising has been greatly reduced for exploration and production companies, it said.

Indonesia's infrastructure promises fail the chilli challenge

Indonesia's infrastructure promises fail the chilli challenge


[SUKABUMI] Poor infrastructure makes stable pricing difficult at the best of times in Indonesia, but the rural poor are increasingly pinning the blame for wild fluctuations in the price of staples on the policies and unmet promises of President Joko Widodo.
With Southeast Asia's biggest economy growing at its slowest pace in six years, and half its 250 million population living on less than US$2 a day, price spikes on foods such as rice, sugar, beef and chillies can be devastating. "Farming is like gambling, because we never know the price,"said 32-year old Rahmat, who farms chillies on the foothills surrounding Mount Salak in West Java, about 115 km south of the capital, Jakarta.
Fresh red chillies are as common on Indonesian dinner tables as salt and pepper in some countries, but over the last 12 months, prices have fluctuated between around 20,000 and 80,000 rupiah (S$2.00 to S$8.10) per kg, though Rahmat says his production costs have remained at just 10,000 rupiah/kg.
Their journey to table explains much of the volatility. Mr Rahmat's chillies are carried on rickety motorbikes across potholed dirt tracks, then loaded onto unrefrigerated flatbed trucks and bought and sold by up to six traders en route to Jakarta, where they can sit in the world's most congested traffic for hours.


Farmers use traders because of the loans and transport they offer, said Yudi Firmansyah, a chilli trader in Sukabumi who supplies vegetables to three regional markets on a rented truck.
About 15 per cent of chillies reach their destination spoilt or too dry for Indonesian tastes, said Dadi Sudiana, chairman of the Association of Indonesian Chilli Agribusiness.
Spoilage rises to almost 40 per cent of fresh fruit and vegetables, according to industry estimates.
Mr Joko took office in October with promises to solve such problems with a massive infrastructure push, but so far his administration has failed to spend the US$22 billion budgeted for such projects this year due to a lack of coordination among ministries.
Mr Joko, whose approval rating has slumped from 72 per cent to just 41 per cent in July, had promised to build more dams, modernise irrigation systems, increase planting areas for foods and provide easier access to credit for smallholder farmers.
To water Mr Rahmat's plants, he relies on rain or fills buckets and small plastic bottles at a nearby stream. It can take up to a week of one worker's labour to water a hectare of crops.
He said he had yet to see any government help under Mr Joko. "The government must boost irrigation infrastructure," said the association's Sudiana. "When the rainy season comes we plant chillies, but when the dry season comes we have no other option than to reduce our plants."
Agriculture Minister Amran Sulaiman said 2 trillion rupiah had been allocated this year for dam building in dry areas and the work was ongoing.
PROTECTIONIST POLICIES
Indonesia was once self-sufficient in rice and sugar, but like many other food crops, output has fallen due to competition for farmland from either cash crops like palm oil or from industry and housing.
Since coming to power, Mr Joko has pursued ambitious self-sufficiency goals to protect domestic farmers.
This has included curbing or delaying imports of raw sugar, beef and cattle, corn and rice, which has resulted in shortages and price rises.
The government blames dry weather, food hoarding and speculators for the price swings, and has increasingly turned to state food buyer Bulog to limit price increases, buying from farmers and selling below market price. "Bulog was involved to stabilise chilli prices temporarily during Ramadan and Lebaran," the agency's chief Djarot Kusumayakti said. "We're like a fire extinguisher."
Instead of ad hoc imports to help control food prices, Mr Joko has signed a decree letting government cap prices of staples.
Regional auctions and markets that aim to reduce traders'involvement are also being planned by the government, but that won't address supply constraints. "Red chilli production is sufficient to cover household demand, which is 400,000 tonnes," Suryamin, head of Indonesia's statistics bureau, told reporters last month. "But there is demand from industries, such as for chilli sauces. So in total, we are still in deficit."
At Jakarta's big Kramat Jati market, chilli sellers said prices can change by the hour, and the produce easily spoils without cold storage.
"The chillies became very expensive after Hari Raya. Everything changed," said David Emma, a restaurant owner buying chillies at a market. "My customers won't eat at my restaurant if I don't make the food spicy. No matter what the sellers tell me about price, I must buy because I don't have an option."
REUTERS

South Korea central bank chief says easy monetary policy has limits in boosting demand

South Korea central bank chief says easy monetary policy has limits in boosting demand


[SEOUL] South Korea's central bank governor on Thursday expressed scepticism over the lasting effects of easy monetary policy on demand, saying that structural reforms are crucial to foster sustainable economic growth. "Since the effects of accommodative monetary policy in boosting demand cannot last for a long time, structural reforms to enhance productivity in the financial and labor sectors are essential for sustainable growth," said Bank of Korea Governor Lee Ju-yeol in opening remarks at an international conference hosted by the central bank.
Mr Lee added central banks around the world should monitor economic and financial imbalances and other negative side effects that can result from accommodative monetary policy. "In Korea, for example, a series of policy rate cuts has been accompanied by rapid growth of household debt," he said. "So we are now closely looking at the risks in the financial system due to the build-up of household debt, as well as at the macroeconomic risks, such as the shrinking of consumption capacity." South Korea's central bank has lowered interest rates four times since last year to a record-low 1.50 per cent, with the last cut taking place in June.
Household debt has grown rapidly as South Koreans took advantage of low borrowing costs to buy homes, spurred on by a government campaign to boost real estate transactions. In a response to growing worries over mounting debt, South Korea unveiled a set of measures aimed at mitigating risks from household borrowing in July.
Due to growing household debt and global uncertainties stemming from the pending rate hike by the US Federal Reserver, most analysts now forecast the BOK will stand pat for the rest of 2015.


REUTERS

Conservatives’ Economic Vision for Canada is Hardly conservative - Niels Veldhuis and Charles Lammam

As expected, the recent 2015 federal budget had the general feel of an election budget, with a small surplus and a smattering of initiatives to satisfy various voting groups. As Liberal leader Justin Trudeau noted in the House of Commons, “The budget is a political document produced to that end. It is a vision for a Conservative election campaign.” While many, including Trudeau, have tried to paint the Conservatives as radical, the 2015 budget actually points to a different conclusion. When it comes to the size and scope of the federal government, it’s hard to distinguish the 2015/16 Conservatives from the 2005/06 Liberals.

Let’s start with the most important measure of the size of government: spending as a share of the economy. Federal program spending (total spending minus interest payments on the federal debt) as a share of the economy (GDP) was 12.6 percent in 2005/06, the last year the Liberals were in office. On this measure, the federal government grew in the first three years under the Conservatives (2006/07 to 2008/09) before skyrocketing during the recession. Federal program spending now stands at 12.9 percent of GDP with the Conservatives planning to increase it to 13.2 percent this year (2015/16). Simply put, the Conservatives have increased the size of the federal government, and if re-elected, plan to keep the federal government larger than the previous Liberal government. Conservatives’ Economic Vision for Canada is Hardly conservative Niels Veldhuis and Charles Lammam FRASER INSTITUTE RECENT COLUMNS APPEARED IN THE FINANCIAL POST Summer 2015 | 21 Moreover, when provincial and local governments are added, total government spending in Canada is currently about 40 percent of GDP.

In a recent book, Measuring Government in the 21st Century, Lakehead University Professor Livio Di Matteo examines a wide range of international data to measure how the size of government affects economic growth and social outcomes. Di Matteo finds that economic growth is maximized when total government spending is at approximately 26 percent of GDP, and for social outcomes there is little additional benefit once government reaches 30 to 35 percent of GDP. A truly conservative vision for the federal government would recognize that it is in the best interests of Canada’s economic and social health to reduce the size of government—not increase it.

 A deeper look at the composition of federal spending tells a similar tale. There has been little change in the composition of federal program spending since 2005/06 across the three major categories (direct federal government spending, transfers to persons, and transfers to government). Today, the federal government’s direct spending is a little lower as a portion of the total while transfers to Canadian families and other levels of government are a little higher. Specifically, direct federal spending decreased from 47 to 44 percent of the total; major transfers to individuals and families increased from 30 to 31 percent of the total; and major transfers to other levels of government increased from 23 to 25 percent of the total. Again, when we consider the composition of federal spending, there’s only a marginal difference between the 2005/06 Liberals and the 2015/16 Conservatives. The one big difference between 2005/06 and 2015/16 is on the revenue side. Federal revenues as a share of the economy are now smaller (14.5 percent) than in 2005/06 (15.9 percent). The main reason for this decline is the Conservatives’ two-point reduction in the GST and, to a lesser extent, the general business tax reduction from 21 percent to 15 percent (an extension of the Liberals’ reduction from 28 percent).

The Conservatives were able to reduce taxes and increase the size of the federal government (program spending as a share of GDP) for two reasons. First, interest payments on the federal debt decreased due to substantially lower interest rates. Second, the Liberals consistently overtaxed Canadians by running significant surpluses. The distinguishing difference between the Conservatives and Liberals is that the Conservatives ended the practice of over-taxing. But as for further tax reductions, the Conservatives’ 2015 budget hardly lives up to its own name: Low-Tax Plan for Jobs, Growth and Security. The budget is actually set to increase the federal tax burden. There is little question that Canada would benefit from a more focused, smaller federal government, which would allow for personal income tax rate reductions that lead to positive economic results by providing better incentives for skilled, educated, and hard-working middleincome Canadians. Former Prime Minister Paul Martin and current Prime Minister Stephen Harper seem to agree on that point. Paul Martin highlighted it in 2005 when he said, “Lower personal taxes would also provide greater rewards and incentives for middle-and high-income Canadians to work, save, and invest.” Prime Minister Stephen Harper made much the same point in 2007 when he said, “Canada needs lower personal income tax rates to encourage more Canadians to realize their full potential.”

Regardless of the rhetoric surrounding the federal budget, it seems that the Liberals and Conservatives have more in common than they like to admit. NIELS VELDHUIS CHARLES LAMMAM Niels Veldhuis is President and Charles Lammam is Director of Fiscal Studies at the Fraser Institute

The Myth of Education Spending Cuts in British Columbia - Deani Van Pelt and Jason Clemens

The recent British Columbia budget was delivered amidst a backdrop of fallen commodity prices and a generally sluggish economy. In light of British Columbia’s mounting government debt, vigilance and restraint will be key to keeping the province’s fiscal house in order. S pending on K-12 education, the second largest spending envelope in British Columbia, can rightly been seen as an important investment for the next generation. It provides the building blocks for a prosperous and opportunities-oriented society. There is no doubt, though, that those who profit from government spending increases will argue that restraint will mean continued cuts in education. The reality is quite different.

According to data from Statistics Canada, between 2001-02 and 2011-12, the most recent years available, The Myth of Education Spending Cuts in British Columbia Deani Van Pelt and Jason Clemens RECENT COLUMNS FRASER INSTITUTE APPEARED IN THE VANCOUVER SUN $5 billion 2001-2002 $6.3 billion 2011-2012 Summer 2015 | 23 spending on public schools in British Columbia increased from $5 billion to $6.3 billion—an increase of 24.7 percent. When price changes (inflation) are considered, the increase is 4.6 percent.

However, these numbers are a rather rudimentary way of understanding education spending because they don’t account for changes in student enrolment. If a jurisdiction increases education spending but simultaneously experiences a larger proportional increase in the student population, it can actually be cutting per-student spending. Alternatively, a jurisdiction with a declining enrolment could actually reduce total education spending but still increase per-student spending. A recent Fraser Institute study, Education Spending in Canada: What’s Actually Happening? calculated the per-student levels of education spending over the last decade. Except for three of Canada’s eastern provinces, BC experienced the largest provincial decline in public school enrolment—from 622,800 to 550,700 students between 2001-02 and 2011-12, an 11.6 percent decrease. This drop in enrolment amplifies the increase in the province’s education spending. During the same 11-year period, spending per student increased 41.1 percent, from $8,093 to $11,418.

 Another common claim, one which is potentially more damaging, is that there’s a consistent relationship between education spending and education results. In this simple world, all you have to do to improve education is spend more money. That is a simplistic and incorrect way to think about inputs and outputs. British Columbia had the lowest spending increases—on both a nominal and per-pupil basis—of any province in the country. Yet, unlike other provinces, many of which experienced a worrying decline in the OECD’s Programme for Student Assessment (PISA) scores in math, reading, and science, BC has some of the highest PISA scores in the country.

Study after study has demonstrated that it’s far more important to focus on how money is spent rather than worrying about the total amount spent. The key to better education isn’t spending more—it’s spending wisely. A recent CD Howe study examined BC’s system of school choice, and confirmed its positive effect on test results. Consider, for example, that one in eight students in BC attends an independent school. Independent schools offer parents real choice in their children’s education and foster competition between schools. Choice and competition are the keys to a well-functioning, efficient education system. Contrary to the rhetoric, spending on public education in British Columbia has increased. And while the increases have been the most modest in the country, performance has not suffered. The focus should be on reform—how we spend on education, and how we deliver that education to students—not on simply worrying about increasing the amount we spend. Deani Van Pelt is the Director of the Barbara Mitchell Centre for Improvement in Education. Jason Clemens is Executive Vice-President at the Fraser Institute.

Japan business mood up, signals recovery after Q2 GDP slump: Reuters Tankan

Japan business mood up, signals recovery after Q2 GDP slump: Reuters Tankan


[TOKYO] Japanese business morale improved in August and it is seen likely to remain steady, a Reuters poll found, offering a hint of economic recovery and improved confidence as firms look past the second quarter's export slump and weak consumer spending.
The Reuters Tankan - which closely tracks the central bank's quarterly tankan survey - could be a source of comfort for policymakers under pressure to deploy fresh stimulus to spur growth after Monday's negative second-quarter growth data.
The poll of 516 big and mid-sized firms between Aug 3 and 17, of which 277 responded, showed business managers were cautiously optimistic about pick-up in domestic demand, although a slowdown in China - Japan's biggest trading partner - clouds the outlook.
Retailers' mood rebounded from the prior month's sharp drop, which led gains in the broader service sector. Manufacturers'morale hit its highest in a year, helped by food processors, oil refiners and steelmakers as oil and other commodity prices fell. "We are able to smoothly pass on costs from inputs to the selling price. Thanks to a shortage of materials, we have reduced losses stemming from bargain sales of excess inventory,"said a manager of a food processor.


Some retailers said in the Reuters monthly poll that sales on the existing-store basis have risen from a year earlier as the pullback from last year's sales tax hike has finally faded. "The number of customers is rising at our stores nationwide. Moreover, the supply network is improving," said a retailer. Another retailer noted: "The long heat wave has spurred sales of summer goods." The Reuters Tankan sentiment index for manufacturers rose from 14 to 17 in August, the highest reading since it hit 20 in the same month a year ago. The index is seen improving further to 19 in November.
The service-sector index rose three points to 27, after tumbling from a record high 36 recorded in June. The index is seen holding steady in November.
Retailers bounced from zero to 18 in August, a good sign for private consumption, which accounts for roughly 60 per cent of the economy.
REUTERS

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