Tuesday, August 18, 2015

Tianjin blast to strain Chinese insurers: Fitch

Tianjin blast to strain Chinese insurers: Fitch


[FRANKFURT] Insurance claims from devastating explosions at the Chinese port of Tianjin last week could exceed initial estimates and strain the finances of regional insurers, credit rating agency Fitch said on Tuesday.
Credit Suisse analysts estimated total insurance losses could amount to US$1-1.5 billion, basing their estimates on Chinese media reports, but Fitch said the bill could go higher.
Local Chinese insurers are set to bear the brunt of the costs and it is not clear how much of their exposure will be transferred to reinsurance companies. "The high insurance penetration rate in this area could make the blasts one of the most costly catastrophe claims for the Chinese insurance sector in the last few years," Fitch said. "Claims from the blasts are likely to undermine the financial performance of some regional players and those property and casualty insurers with high risk accumulation in the affected areas," the agency added in a statement.
It was too early to say how the credit strength of China's insurance sector as a whole would be affected, it added.



If claims were to come in at the high end of the forecast, it would represent more than 5 per cent of aggregated shareholder capital of the six major insurers in Tianjin, Fitch estimated.
PICC Property and Casualty Company, Ping An Property & Casualty Insurance Company of China, China Pacific Property Insurance, China Continent Property & Casualty Insurance, Sunshine Property & Casualty Insurance and Taiping General Insurance are the most active insurers in the region, Fitch said. They account for nearly 80 per cent of property and casualty premiums.
Property and casualty insurers in the Tianjin region typically pass on about 10-15 per cent of risks to local and international reinsurers, Fitch said.
Zurich Insurance and Allianz are among the foreign insurers who have received claims stemming from the blasts, which killed more than 100 people and destroyed or damaged thousands of cars at Tianjin, the world's third largest port in terms of total cargo volume.
However, Germany's Allianz has said it did not expect major financial claims from the explosions, which occurred on Aug 12.
REUTERS

Emerging markets to stay sluggish for some time: Moody's

Emerging markets to stay sluggish for some time: Moody's


[LONDON] The significant slowdown in many emerging market economies is a medium-term trend that could persist for years, a senior Moody's analyst said on Tuesday.
Marie Diron, senior vice-president at the rating agency, said countries such as Brazil, Turkey and South Africa were all at risk as local political concerns added to broader pressure on developing economies. "Emerging markets for a range of country-specific factors are growing significantly more slowly than before the global financial crisis. We think that this is a medium-term trend, here to stay for some time," Diron said in response to questions in the Reuters Global Markets Forum chatroom.
South Africa and Turkey were the two most exposed to a rise in US interest rates, expected next month or in December, due to their high levels of dollar-denominated debt.
Brazil, which like Turkey is on the lowest rung of the investment grade ladder at Baa3, has political troubles and sells commodities to now stuttering China. "We forecast a marked recession (around -2 per cent) this year, followed by zero growth," Diron said. "We have also seen business confidence plummet as political and policy uncertainty is high. Investment has fallen abruptly. These factors will likely stay in place for some time." She refused, however, to comment on the prospects for either country's rating.



She saw slower Chinese growth for the rest of the decade. Last week, Moody's said Beijing's move to loosen its reins on the yuan was credit positive.
REUTERS

China's yuan ends flat as market awaits trading clues

China's yuan ends flat as market awaits trading clues  


[HONG KONG] China's yuan closed flat against the dollar on Tuesday after the central bank set a slightly stronger midpoint as the market awaited clues of future yuan movements.
The People's Bank of China set the midpoint at 6.3966 per dollar prior to market open, weaker than the previous day's closing quote of 6.3947.
The spot market closed at 6.3938, or 9 pips away from the previous close and 0.04 per cent away from the midpoint.
The spot rate is currently allowed to trade with a range 2 per cent above or below the official fixing on any given day.



The offshore yuan was trading 0.82 per cent weaker than the onshore spot at 6.4467 per dollar.
The yuan posted its biggest weekly loss on record and touched four-year lows after the central bank's surprise devaluation of its currency by nearly 2 per cent last Tuesday.
Traders expect the currency to fall further amid a sluggish economy in China though a significant devaluation or a series of devaluations to boost exports is unlikely.
Morgan Stanley revised down its USD/CNY forecast to 6.60 at end-2015 and 6.91 at end-2016, compared with the previous forecast of 6.09 for 2015 and 6.07 for 2016.
REUTERS

UK inflation ticks up in July, core inflation hits five-month high

UK inflation ticks up in July, core inflation hits five-month high


[LONDON] British inflation edged up in July, official figures showed on Tuesday, helped by smaller discounts to clothing compared to this time last year, while core inflation hit a five-month high.
Consumer price inflation ticked up 0.1 per cent in July year-on-year after slipping back to zero in June.
Economists in a Reuters poll had expected inflation to stay flat at zero, after rising slightly in May and falling below zero for the first time since 1960 in April.
On a monthly basis, inflation fell 0.2 per cent in July, the figures from the Office for National Statistics showed. "The slight (annual) increase is mainly due to clothing, with smaller price reductions in this year's summer sales compared with a year ago," said ONS statistician Richard Campbell. "Food and motor fuel prices continue to fall and have helped stop a larger rise in the rate of inflation." A recent rise in sterling and fall in oil prices has curbed inflation in Britain.


In its latest economic outlook, the Bank of England stressed that these factors would push down inflation until at least the middle of 2016 and said the impact of the rise in sterling could persist even longer.
While low inflation has boosted Britons' purchasing power, it has also made it more difficult for the BoE to exit its ultra-easy monetary policy of recent years. A BoE official said on Sunday that waiting too long to raise interest rates could undermine Britain's economic recovery.
An underlying measure of inflation, which strips out increases in energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, rose to 1.2 per cent in July - the highest yearly increase since February - from 0.8 per cent in June.
BoE officials are increasingly looking at this measure to assess the timing of the first rate hike in over seven years, as it excludes more volatile items.
Data also released by the ONS on Tuesday showed that factory gate prices fell by 1.6 per cent in annual terms, compared with economists' predictions of a 1.5 per cent fall.
Separate data showed house prices rose 5.7 per cent in the year to June, up from 5.6 per cent in May.
Markets recently pushed back expectations for the timing for a rate hike after only one member of the rate-setting committee voted to increase interest rates, against expectations that two or more would do so.
REUTERS

Aussie leads commodity peers lower as oil, Chinese stocks slide

Aussie leads commodity peers lower as oil, Chinese stocks slide


[EDINBURGH] Australia's dollar weakened against its major peers as metal and oil prices fell, adding to concern the commodities slump will hurt the economy.
The Aussie led declines among currencies of nations that export raw materials to China, where stocks tumbled the most in three weeks. Goldman Sachs Group Inc predicted that iron ore, Australia's biggest export earner, will drop about 30 per cent over the next 18 months.
The Australian currency slid against all of its 16 major peers except Norway's krone as the Reserve Bank of Australia said that its accommodative monetary policy remains appropriate.
Australia's dollar dropped 0.4 per cent to 73.44 US cents as of 7.01 am New York time. It touched a six-year low of 72.16 cents on Aug 12, a day after China - the top destination for Australia's exports - devalued the yuan.


"There's still some downside, which we expect, not least because of what's going on in China and a continued terms-of- trade deterioration," said Gavin Friend, a strategist at National Australia Bank Ltd in London.
Mr Friend said he sees the Aussie sliding to 70 cents by year- end and 68 in the first quarter of 2016.
Canada's dollar and the krone also fell as West Texas Intermediate crude dropped to the lowest on a closing-price basis since 2009. Oil slipped below US$50 a barrel last month amid speculation a global supply glut will be prolonged.
Australia Transition The Australian dollar's slide is assisting a transition away from mining investment, the central bank said Tuesday in minutes of its August meeting. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens and his board have held borrowing costs for the past three months, leaving the main rate at 2 per cent.
Malaysia's ringgit, which has also been battered by a political scandal, slipped to levels last seen during the Asian financial crisis in 1998. It's the worst-performing Asian currency the past month, sliding 7 per cent versus its US counterpart. The next-worst performer is Taiwan's dollar with a 4.2 per cent decline.
The dollar strengthened 0.2 per cent to US$1.1060 per euro and was little changed at 124.30 yen.
"One of the things that's going on is this constant drip, drip of a higher dollar versus emerging market and commodity" currencies, said NAB's Mr Friend.
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US housing starts edge higher in July

US housing starts edge higher in July


[WASHINGTON] Growth in US home construction slowed in July after a strong surge the previous month, Commerce Department data released Tuesday showed.
Housing starts rose 0.2 per cent to an annual rate of 1.206 million, the highest pace since October 2007, before the Great Recession, and in line with analyst expectations.
The June surge was revised upward to a 12.3 per cent increase month over month.
Compared with a year ago, July housing starts were up 10.1 per cent, as the housing market recovers from the severe 2008-2009 recession.


The July increase was entirely due to starts on single-family homes, the largest part of the market, which jumped 12.8 per cent.
Construction of multi-family units, which tends to be volatile, dropped 17 per cent.
Building permits, an indicator of future activity, tumbled 16.3 per cent in July to an annual rate of 1.119 million, below the consensus estimate of 1.257 million.
Permits were up 7.5 per cent from July 2014.
AFP

Monday, August 17, 2015

China, Hong Kong stocks fall as yuan devaluation fears linger

China, Hong Kong stocks fall as yuan devaluation fears linger


[HONG KONG] Shares in China and Hong Kong fell on Tuesday as the yuan eased against the dollar, reigniting fears that Beijing may be intent on a deeper devaluation of the currency despite the central bank's comments that it sees no reason for a further slide.
The CSI300 index fell 1 per cent to 4,038.26 points by the end of the morning session, while the Shanghai Composite Index lost 1.5 per cent to 3,935.33 points.
"Anticipation of further devaluation discouraged investors from holding yuan-denominated assets," said Alex Wong, a director at Ample Finance Group in Hong Kong. "We see no positive catalyst that can boost the market in the medium run. Investors are not keen to enter the market when they see very limited upside potential," Mr Wong added.
China CSI300 stock index futures for August fell 0.6 per cent, to 3,964, 74.26 points below the current value of the underlying index.



The yuan fell against the dollar on Tuesday despite a slightly stronger midpoint set by the central bank, and traders expect the currency to remain under downward pressure as the economy struggles.
The People's Bank of China devalued the currency last week by nearly 2 per cent, triggering an avalanche of selling by investors who feared Beijing wanted to engineer a much sharper decline to support weak exports. The PBOC was later forced to step into the market and tell state banks to support the currency.
Shares of importers and firms with high US dollar-denominated debt have been under pressure along with Chinese airlines who face higher fuel bills following the devaluation.
Among airlines, China Eastern fell 3.9 per cent and China Southern tumbled per cent.
Property shares also slid on Tuesday despite encouraging home price data, with the SSEC property sub-index down 3 per cent.
Chinese home prices rose in July for a third consecutive month, fuelled by improved sales and market sentiment, suggesting the property market is slowly recovering in a rare counterpoint to a growing list of grim economic indicators.
China Vanke, the country's largest property developer, said on Monday that the housing market is slowly emerging from a year-long slump, but it will take time to see a full recovery.
Losses in Hong Kong were milder, with the Hang Seng index off 0.1 per cent at 23,795.11 and the Hong Kong China Enterprises Index edging down 0.2 per cent to 10,944.25.
Insurers remained under pressure, with Ping An Insurance falling 1.2 per cent.
Credit Suisse analysts, citing initial estimates from local media, said that the two explosions in the Chinese port of Tianjin last week that killed more than 100 people could generate total insurance losses of US$1 billion to US$1.5 billion.
The index measuring price differences between dual-listed companies in Shanghai and Hong Kong stood at 136.85.
A value above 100 indicates Shanghai shares are pricing at a premium to shares in the same company trading in Hong Kong, and vice versa.
Under the Hong Kong-Shanghai Stock Connect scheme, a net 0.19 billion yuan went northbound to Shanghai, a tiny fraction of the 13 billion yuan daily quota.
The total volume of A shares traded in Shanghai was 28.07 billion shares, while Shenzhen volume was 20.75 billion shares.
The total trading volume of companies included in the HSI index was 0.5 billion shares.
REUTERS

Norwegian fund excludes Genting, Daewoo, Posco and IJM over palm oil

Norwegian fund excludes Genting, Daewoo, Posco and IJM over palm oil


[OSLO] Norway's gigantic sovereign wealth fund announced on Monday it was divesting from four large Asian companies over the environmental damage their palm oil activities have on tropical forests.
The world's largest public investment fund, managing 7.15 trillion kroner (S$1.22 trillion), said its decision to exclude four groups - including South Korean group Daewoo International - from its portfolio was based on "an assessment of the risk of severe environmental damage" from their conversion of tropical forests to cultivate palm oil.
Daewoo, South Korean steelmaker Posco and Malaysian groups Genting and IJM were targeted in the divestment decision by Norway's central bank, which manages the wealth fund that owns around 1.3 per cent of all stocks on global equity markets, with stakes in about 9,000 companies.
The fund manages its investments according to strict ethical guidelines that have previously led it to exclude around 60 companies from its holdings, including Airbus, Boeing, Safran, Philip Morris and Wal-Mart.



Under the guidelines, it must avoid investments in groups accused of serious violations of human rights, child labour or serious environmental damage, as well as manufacturers of "particularly inhumane" arms and tobacco firms.
The decisions by the fund - which draws investment money from Norway's huge oil revenues, a fact that hasn't escaped some detractors - are frequently replicated by other international investors concerned about ethical perceptions of their holdings.
Palm oil - used primarily in the cosmetics, food, and bio-fuel sectors - is a controversial industry, with campaigns mounted by environmental groups and consumers.
Daewoo fell afoul of the fund's managers for its 85-per cent stake in an Indonesian company accused of clearing large swathes of the country's tropical forest for palm oil cultivation.
At the end of 2014 the fund owned 0.91 per cent of Posco worth US$198 million at the end of 2014, and 0.28 per cent of Daewoo valued at US$9 million.
Its 0.4-per cent stake in Genting was worth around US$41 million, and its 1.6-per cent position in IJM was worth US$46 million.
Independently of the ethical guidelines, the fund has in recent years put increasing emphasis on environmental issues in its investments, noting that problems such as deforestation and water management can affect a company's financial viability.
In early 2012, it pulled out of 23 palm oil producers, without naming them.
Indonesia and Malaysia together account for about 80 per cent of global production, though the industry is growing rapidly in Africa.
In order to improve practices, palm oil producers, distributors and non-governmental organisations in 2004 created the Roundtable on Sustainable Palm Oil (RSPO), an association whose charter bars producers from clearing old-growth forests or other conservation sites for cultivation.
Neither Daewoo nor Posco are members of RSPO. Palm oil represents only a small fraction of Daewoo's and Posco's overall businesses.
"This is a sign that the fund takes the issue very seriously," said Nils Hermann Ranum of campaign group Rainforest Foundation Norway.
Genting and IJM are RSPO members but have been accused of not respecting its guidelines and not being transparent enough.
"This shows that RSPO is archaic when it comes to environmental certification," Ranum said.
"If it still wants to be taken seriously, it needs to tighten up its regulations." Norway's pension fund is intended to pay for future generations in the welfare-state after the country's oil wells run dry.
AFP

Singapore bankers rattled by Asian moves to chase undeclared wealth

Singapore bankers rattled by Asian moves to chase undeclared wealth


[SINGAPORE] Singapore-based wealth managers, already under pressure from a global move towards tax information sharing, face a more immediate threat as Asian countries including Indonesia and India look to chase undeclared money in the low-tax city state.
A global crackdown on tax evasion launched during the 2008 financial crisis has already forced Switzerland and other European offshore hubs to surrender their prized bank secrecy.
Like those centres, Singapore has committed to automatically start sharing information with foreign tax authorities from 2018, in line with an agreement signed by more than 51 countries last year that seeks to put an end to tax evasion.
But Singapore banks face a more urgent challenge.


Indonesia, Singapore's main source of wealth assets, is considering offering a tax amnesty to individuals willing to repatriate funds from abroad - targeting US$225 billion Jakarta says is parked in Singapore alone. "Indonesia accounts for 30-50 per cent of business for private banks in Singapore," a Singapore-based banker at a top global wealth manager told Reuters.
"Clients are worried and asking about this, (while) accounting and legal firms are pitching to help clients structure their transactions," said another banker.
Both declined to be named due to client confidentiality rules.
The second banker said one client was considering whether to pass his wealth directly to one of his children, who is in the process of taking Singapore nationality.
Singapore, Asia's second-largest offshore centre by assets behind Hong Kong, has thrived as a banking centre due to its political and economic stability, low taxes and rule of law. It manages US$470 billion of private client assets, Deloitte data show.
Singapore's central bank has said it has a rigorous regime to combat money laundering and is ready to take tough action if there are breaches. Sources said Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) officials have been asking private banks if they have heard any client concerns about the exchange of information mechanism. The MAS didn't comment.
The finance ministry noted that Singapore would need to sign bilateral agreements before any automatic data sharing, and those deals would depend on partner countries having a "robust" legal framework to maintain information confidentiality and "confine its use to tax purposes", a ministry spokeswoman said.
ITALIAN MODEL
Seeking to recoup funds it first bled in the aftermath of former president Suharto's government, Jakarta is looking to introduce a tax amnesty, but has given no timetable for this. "The idea is to first prepare the legal framework," Suahasil Nazara, who heads the fiscal policy office, told Reuters.
The planned amnesty, private bankers say, is modelled on a successful but controversial Italian tax scheme that helped Rome recoup billions of euros unlawfully parked in Switzerland against the payment of a modest penalty.
This system, which was criticised for allowing tax evaders to come clean without too much pain, is a faster way to recover funds than wading through a myriad of tax and bank data.
PRESSURE MOUNTS
India, too, is trying to turn up the heat on an estimated US$340 billion of undeclared wealth by its residents.
The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), the market watchdog, has asked international private banks to register their offshore units with it if they are soliciting business in India, a Reuters report revealed earlier this month.
If banks agree to register, they could be targeted by requests from SEBI to disclose client information. "These changes will certainly make things more complicated for wealth managers. (They) will have to factor in every high net worth client's residence and domicile," said Mark Wightman, a partner for wealth & asset management at EY Advisory.
For local banks in Indonesia and elsewhere, the pressure on Singapore is opening up opportunities at home.
"The hope is that with the tax amnesty, more funds will be returned to Indonesia," said Jahja Setiaatmadja, president director of Bank Central Asia, Indonesia's biggest bank by market value.
For Singapore-based banks, the move towards data sharing means radically changing a model that had been mainly based on their ability to offer strict client privacy in a low-tax environment.
Swiss wealth managers including UBS and Credit Suisse were fined by US regulators for allowing clients to deposit untaxed money, and still face lawsuits elsewhere.
"Everybody's in limbo right now," said a senior banker in Singapore. "Clients are scared about opening new accounts and asking whether certain structures work."
Experts believe Singapore could continue to be an attractive centre thanks to its strong legal system, security and a deep talent pool for wealth services. "The days of undisclosed assets being held offshore will, in time, become a thing of the past," said Mr Wightman.
REUTERS

Korea's bet to lure tourists: tax breaks on breast augmentation

Korea's bet to lure tourists: tax breaks on breast augmentation


[SEOUL] South Korea is taking duty-free shopping to a whole new level, with plans to exclude face lifts, breast enlargements and liposuction from value-added tax for tourists.
Desperate to boost tourism after an outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome hurt the economy, the country will give tourists a 10 per cent refund on cosmetic surgery for a year starting April next year.
Mers led to more than a 40 per cent drop in the number of tourists visiting South Korea in June. Visitors from Taiwan and Hong Kong fell the most, by 76 per cent and 75 per cent each from a year earlier.
The number of procedures performed in South Korea covers about about 2 per cent of the population, arguably making the country the cosmetic surgery capital of the world. 













Of the more than 4 million such surgeries performed worldwide last year, about 5 per cent were done in South Korea, trailing only the US, Brazil and Japan, according to the International Society of Aesthetic Plastic Surgery.
Now, officials are hoping the tax break will bring in more tourists and boost the economy, although a weaker yuan may be a party pooper for Chinese visitors.
"The tax change should lift the number of Chinese visitors next year, although Korea should really make this permanent to give it a real boost," said Kim Soo Woong, a director at the Korea Health Industry Development Institute.
"The number of medical tourists may fall if the yuan falls further," he said, noting that visitors from Russia and Mongolia dropped when the ruble declined.
Seoul's BK Plastic Surgery, located in the so-called beauty belt of Gangnam alongside hundreds of other cosmetic surgery clinics, offers airport pickups and makes hotel reservations for foreign clients. The clinic has about 20 surgeons and 15 interpreters, speaking languages including Chinese, Japanese and English. The website features messages from Korean celebrities popular in China, including actor Chae Rim.
Korea's gross domestic product grew just 0.3 per cent in the second quarter from the previous three months.
The government hopes to make about 3.5 trillion won (S$4.2 billion), or about 0.2 per cent of GDP, from medical tourism by 2020, up from 726.3 billion won as of 2012, according to the Korea Tourism Organisation.
  The number of tourists visiting Korea for medical procedures more than tripled to 266,501 last year from 81,789 in 2010. The tax breaks on cosmetic procedures should boost those numbers further.
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