Sunday, July 5, 2015

Europe scrambles to respond to Greek 'No' on bailout

Europe scrambles to respond to Greek 'No' on bailout

[PARIS] European leaders reacted with a mix of dismay and caution on Sunday after Greek voters defied their warnings of a possible "Grexit" by saying a resounding 'No' to creditors' harsh bailout terms.
Jeroen Dijsselbloem, leader of the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers, who had warned ahead of Sunday's crunch referendum a 'No' vote would likely lead to Greece exiting the single currency, termed the result "very regrettable".
"I take note of the outcome of the Greek referendum. This result is very regrettable for the future of Greece," the Dutch finance minister said in a statement.
Germany's vice chancellor Sigmar Gabriel took an even dimmer view of the message sent by austerity-addled Greeks after they rallied to a call by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras for a boosted mandate to pursue a more lenient debt deal that includes debt forgiveness.
Leading the reaction from Germany, Mr Gabriel, who heads the centre-left Social Democratic Party that shares power with Chancellor Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats, accused Mr Tsipras of having "torn down the last bridges which Europe and Greece could have crossed to find a compromise."
"By saying 'No' to the eurozone's rules... negotiations over billions of euros in bailout programmes are difficult to imagine," Mr Gabriel told his country's Tagesspiegel newspaper, referring to Greece's request for a new bailout programme.
A German government spokesman said in a later statement that Merkel had discussed the outcome of the vote with French President Francois Hollande in a telephone call.
The chancellor, an advocate of austerity, and Mr Hollande, who spoke on Sunday night by phone with Mr Tsipras, were "in agreement that the vote by the Greek people be respected," the spokesman said.
The leaders of the eurozone's two biggest economies also called for a summit of eurozone leaders on Tuesday - a request rapidly granted by EU Council President Donald Tusk.
The European Commission issued only a terse statement on the vote, saying it "respects" the result and that Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker - who had lobbied for a 'Yes' vote - would hold a teleconference Monday with Dijsselbloem and Mario Draghi, head of the European Central Bank, whose emergency loans have been keeping Greek banks afloat.
While most EU leaders refrained from repeating their pre-referendum warnings about the uncertain fate facing Greece, Slovakian Finance Minister Peter Kazimir declared Athens had moved closer to leaving the eurozone.
"The nightmare of the 'euro-architects' that a country could leave the club seems like a realistic scenario after Greece voted No today," tweeted Kazimir.
Foreign Minister Timo Soini of Finland's eurosceptic Finns Party told his country's MTV television that Greece's future in the eurozone depended on European taxpayers "willingness to pay".
"It cannot be that when they vote in Greece, they vote to have other eurozone members' tax euros for themselves," said Soini, whose country is part of a staunchly pro-austerity club of eurozone members.
Baltic states within the single currency, and non-eurozone member Poland, also voiced dismay at the outcome.
Lithuania's President Dalia Grybauskaite said the Greek vote has "further complicated the situation", while Estonian Prime Minister Taavi Roivas tweeted: "Does not look good for the future of Greek people..." Latvian PM Laidmota Straujuma, also on Twitter, wrote that a Greek 'No' "will make any further negotiations very difficult". But her spokeswoman Aiva Rozenberga later told AFP that "Europe keeps the door open for negotiations if the Greeks are willing to return".
Russia also weighed in, with deputy economy minister Alexei Likhachev seeing the Mediterranean country - whose prime minister has been accused of cosying up to President Vladimir Putin - as having taken "a step towards a eurozone exit".
But anti-austerity and eurosceptic parties were heartened by the Greek rebuff to the EU.
"EU project is now dying. It's fantastic to see the courage of the Greek people in the face of political and economic bullying from Brussels," the leader of Britain's eurosceptic UK Independence Party Nigel Farage wrote on Twitter, praising the Greeks for "calling the EU's bluff".
Spain's radical left Podemos party, an ally of Greece's ruling Syriza party, also cheered the result, which comes ahead of a general election later this year in Spain in which the left is tipped for gains.
"Today in Greece democracy won," Podemos leader Pablo Iglesias posted on his Twitter page.
In a sign of the nervousness of Spain's conservative government about the possible political contagion from Tsipras' victory Sunday, Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy called an emergency meeting on Monday with senior officials including his economy and finance ministers.
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Europe's impossible dilemma: let Greece stay or let it go?

Europe's impossible dilemma: let Greece stay or let it go?

[BRUSSELS] Europe faces a near impossible choice between giving debt-laden Greece a chance or pushing it out of the euro and risking global turmoil, analysts said Sunday, after Greek voters overwhelmingly rejected international creditors' terms.
Berlin, Paris and Brussels all warned in the run-up to Sunday's referendum that a 'No' vote to the EU-IMF reform demands was a 'No' vote for the single currency and a return to the drachma.
Some analysts say the cold reality of a possible "Grexit" may make some leaders agree with Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras that the shock result does not necessarily have to mean a break with Europe.
"EU member states will give Greece another chance, but there is very little time and this will really be the last chance," Nicolas Veron of the Bruegel think-tank in Brussels told AFP.
He said a Greek exit from the 19-country currency union could come about "very rapidly" if action was not taken quickly.
The referendum result - a rejection of more austerity after five years of pain for Greece, came as a surprise to many European governments - because "lots of people were relying on the rationality of the process, and confused their desires for reality," he added.
The creditors face a difficult choice between trying to avoid the risk of contagion from a Greek euro exit - plus the political and symbolic implications of the loss of a historic European nation from the club - or sticking to their austerity guns.
'PREPARE FOR DRACHMA'
The radical leftist government led by Mr Tsipras and his Syriza party has been at loggerheads with its creditors since it was elected in January on a tough anti-austerity platform.
Talks broke down last week when the eurozone refused to extend Greece's bailout past June 30, and there are still few signs that the other 18 members of the currency club are willing to compromise.
Eurozone leaders are to hold a special summit on Tuesday in Brussels which could well be the last chance to reach some kind of deal before the European Central Bank cuts off emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) to Greece's struggling banks.
Slovakia's Finance Minister Peter Kazimir poured cold water on the chances of success, saying that the "nightmare of the 'euro-architects' that a country could leave the club seems like a realistic scenario after Greece voted 'No' today." "I think it's going to lead to Grexit," Pieter Cleppe of the Open Europe think-tank told AFP.
"The EU doesn't want to be seen as the one pulling the trigger. But that shouldn't be the only reason for not pulling it - I think it would be irresponsible not to prepare for drachma if you think it's impossible to get a deal with the eurozone finance ministers.
"And I think that's going to be very hard, so why keep pretending and wasting precious time, when you risk social breakdown." He said that without an extension of ECB funding "there is no other way than to provide a parallel currency." - Pandora's Box
Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis insisted on Sunday night that a parallel currency was not on the table and that Athens could strike a deal, but that will take hard work, analysts said.
Pouring more money into the black hole of Greece's finances will not be popular with voters in other eurozone countries, particularly in the more hardline Baltics, Finland and the Netherlands, said Anne Laure Delatte, an economist at the French Institute for Scientific Research.
"What could work in the Greeks' favour is the radical uncertainty, and the pressure from the Americans, who fear a new financial crisis," she said.
"But what could count against them is the idea that the eurozone could do better without them, and the pressure from voters."
Failure to do a deal would be a boost for populist leaders like France's Marine Le Pen and Britain's Nigel Farage who made gains in European Parliament elections last year, said Pascal Delwit, political science professor at Free University of Belgium.
"I find it hard to imagine that we are heading towards Grexit," he said. "European leaders don't want to open a Pandora's Box."
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