Monday, January 12, 2015

Approve Keystone and Move On

WAITING TO BECOME A PIPELINE.
 PHOTOGRAPHER: SCOTT DALTON/BLOOMBERG


At this point, Keystone XL has more value as a political issue than as a pipeline. That's why President Barack Obama should just approve it already and put this absurdly politicized issue to rest.
True, the president has said he will veto the current congressional effort to force approval of the pipeline, but his objections seem more bureaucratic than substantive. And last week, the highest court in Nebraska, through which Keystone will run, quietly opened the door to allow him to approve the project through the proper channels.
To reiterate: The pipeline from Alberta, Canada, to the U.S. Gulf Coast is neither a threat to Earth's climate (as its opponents claim) nor a boon to employment (as its proponents argue). The construction is expected to create only about 10,000 temporary jobs; only a few dozenpermanent employees will be needed to run the thing once it's built. And the pipeline's actual impact on the environment is minimal.
What's more, with the price of oil hovering around $50 a barrel, the economic rationale for the pipeline is shaky. Nonetheless, the wisdom of allowing TransCanada Corp. to build the pipeline remains as sound as it ever was: In the long term, it can make the U.S. more energy-secure.
As an immediate side benefit, U.S. permission could also be used to help coax Canada into a climate agreement with the U.S.
The Keystone XL has been a hot-button issue for some environmentalists, in part because extracting oil from tar sands creates more pollution than drilling for oil. But the pipeline would be a net gain for the climate if it could help prod Canada to cut carbon emissions.
This shouldn't be so difficult. Canada has always matched U.S. pledges on greenhouse-gas targets -- even if, so far, it has not done as much as the U.S. to make good on them. Both countries vowed to lower carbon emissions 17 percent from their 2005 levels by 2020. In a recent climate deal with China, Obama upped the ante to 26 to 28 percent by 2025. Canada should follow suit.
Finally, there is the reality that, even if the Keystone pipeline is never built, Canada's oil won't stay in the ground. Even as oil prices have dropped over the past several months, extraction from the Alberta oil sands has continued. And even if $50-a-barrel oil causes some producers to slow production, oil prices will inevitably rise again, making oil-sands extraction economically viable. This crude will get to market via rail and ship -- as it has been -- and possibly via pipelines that are in the works to Canada's east and west coasts.
Keystone will not create many jobs for the U.S., and its delivery of 830,000 barrels a day won't keep the price of gasoline low. But the U.S. still needs to import oil -- and better to get it from Canada than, say, Venezuela. Obama has no good reason not to say yes.
To contact the senior editor responsible for Bloomberg View’s editorials: David
 Shipley at davidshipley@bloomberg.net.



Hong Kong Regulator Brings in Outside Market Monitoring; SEC Considers Doing the Same



Hong Kong Regulator Brings in Outside Market Monitoring; SEC Considers Doing the Same


Categories: Standards, Ethics & Regulations (SER)US SEC
SEC.jpeg
Regulators must balance their available budgets with the challenges of ensuring sufficient oversight of their markets. Given that staff hours are limited and their responsibilities continue to grow as the firm numbers increase and new products are launched, some regulators are looking towards external resources for assistance.
The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) recently announced the results of a secondmystery shopping study. The SFC hired the Hong Kong Productivity Council to conduct about 150 “shopping” visits of 10 selected licensed corporations that included fund management, investment advisory, and brokerage firms between April and September 2014. The study was a follow-up to one conducted in 2010 to see if prior deficiencies had been addressed.
These mystery shopping visits focused on three key requirement areas of the SFC’sCode of Conduct:
  • Know your client
  • Explanation of product features and risk disclosures
  • Suitability assessment
While some improvements had been made, other deficiencies remained a concern in the 2014 study. These include deficiencies centered on the suitability of some investments. In certain cases, the clients’ relevant circumstances were not fully considered when making a suitability determination. In others, the products being recommended were not properly explained as to why they were suitable for potential clients.
According to an SFC press release, beyond the recurring themes noted above, “the 2014 programme identified the following major deficiencies in selling practices:
  • inadequate or inaccurate explanation of the features of, or disclosure of the risks of, high-yield bonds and derivative products;
  • failure to assess clients’ knowledge of derivatives; and
  • failure to provide relevant and material information about the recommended products to clients, eg, product key facts statements.”
Studies of this nature allow the SFC to provide guidance to its constituents to meet the requirements of its Code of Conduct. By using outside resources, the study received an unfiltered view of the activities of the targeted corporations. The SFC received information through the study as it was directly provided to clients.
At the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Chair Mary Jo White is looking into using third-party auditors to assist in the examination of investment advisers. In a16 December 2014 letter responding to US Congressman Jeb Hensarling (R-TX), chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, White addressed concerns he had raised previously.
In her letter, White highlights improvements the SEC has made over the past year in regards to the examinations of investment advisers. “As a result of these and other efforts, the number of investment adviser examinations conducted in fiscal year 2014 increased approximately 20% to 1,164 from 964 in fiscal year 2013, with staffing levels remaining relatively stable. In those two fiscal years, the investment advisers examined by OCIE (Office of Compliance Inspections and Examinations) staff managed approximately 25% and 30% respectively of the total assets under management by all registered investment advisers.”
To undertake additional examination, other activities will be considered. The SEC will allow the continuation of reviews by some broker-dealer examiners of both the broker-dealer and registered investment adviser operations of selected jointly registered firms. In the letter, White has instructed the staff to review “permitting third-party audits or compliance reviews of investment advisers.” She has asked the staff to do a “current evaluation of the third-party compliance review concept,” as the industry had raised several concerns when private-sector options were previously considered in 2003.
Both the US and Hong Kong securities regulators are looking for effective methods to meet obligations to their markets. The mystery shopping program assists the SFC with improving the integrity of the market. For the SEC, the benefits of third-party audits will have to be weighed against the cost and quality of the outside reviews. Ultimately, any regulatory use of external resources should support the long-term interest of investors and promote market integrity.

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Americas Market Outlook: Tepid Economic Growth, Political Risk, Ethics to Define 2015


Americas Market Outlook: Tepid Economic Growth, Political Risk, Ethics to Define 2015


Categories: Standards, Ethics & Regulations (SER)
2015-CFA-Institute-Global-Market-Sentiment-Survey.jpg
CFA Institute members expect modest economic growth in the coming year, according to the recently published Global Market Sentiment Survey. The survey of more than 5,200 global financial professionals pegs global GDP growth at a tepid 2% for 2015, far below the 3.4% recently forecast by the World Bank. Continued headwinds in emerging markets, halting growth in the developed markets of Europe and Japan, and global political instability are just some of the dynamics tempering expectations growth expectations.
In the Americas, CFA Institute received survey participant responses that were statistically significant from the United States, Canada, and Brazil. US survey respondents were most optimistic, though cautiously so. They expect US GDP to grow by 2.2% in 2015. In Canada, the expected growth rate was 1.7%, while in Brazil, pessimism reigns with an expected growth rate of only 0.3%. (At the time the survey was conducted, Brazil’s run-off presidential election had not yet concluded, so the impact of President Dilma Rousseff’s re-election may not be fully reflected.) Brazil has company: as survey respondents in Switzerland, Japan, and France all expect home GDP growth of less than 1%, on average, in 2015.
GMSS GDP Growth Rates
Survey respondents in Brazil (38%) and the US (32%) see weak developed market economies as the biggest risk to global markets in 2015, while their Canadian counterparts are equally split between weak developed market economies (23%) and political instability (23%) as the biggest risks to global growth.
When asked to consider the biggest risk to their own economies, more than half of Brazil respondents (53%) answered political instability, about a quarter of survey takers in Canada (23%) were most concerned about weak emerging market economies, while US respondents saw weak developed market economies as the biggest risks to their market.
Political Risk Tops Underestimated Risks
Globally, the survey found that political risk, including secessionist and nationalistic movements, is the biggest underestimated risk that could negatively impact global capital markets over the next five years. How does that compare with sentiments in the Americas region? Survey respondents in the United States (25%), followed by Canada (23%), are the most concerned about political instability as a negative factor in global market performance.
The second-most underestimated global risk identified by members was the demographic trend of aging populations (20%). Members in some markets perceive this risk more acutely than others. In Canada for example, by 2050, 31% — or nearly a third of all Canadians — will be 60 years of age or older, according to the Global AgeWatch Index 2014. So, it is perhaps not surprising that more than a quarter of respondents in that market (26%) flagged Canada’s aging population as a key risk.
Investment Market Structure Concerns and Solutions
Globally, 28% of survey respondents indicated that improved regulation and oversight of global systemic risk is the regulatory or industry action most needed in 2015 to help improve investor trust and market integrity. Improved transparency of financial reporting and other corporate disclosures was the second-most-cited action globally (21%).
In the Americas, however, answers to this question ran the gamut. Indeed, Brazilian respondents were most likely to cite improved enforcement of existing laws and regulations (47%) and improved corporate governance practices (29%) as the most-necessary actions. In Canada, improved transparency of financial reporting and other corporate disclosures was the top choice (31%), followed by improved market trading rules on transparency and frequency of trades (22%). In the United States, 28% of survey respondents said improved market trading rules on transparency and frequency of trades was the action most needed to help improve investor trust and market integrity, followed by improved enforcement of existing laws and regulations (26%).
Ethics Matters
As was the case in last year’s survey, more than half of survey respondents (63%) globally point to a lack of ethical culture within financial firms as the leading cause of the current lack of trust in the financial industry. In both Canada and the United States, the firm-level action seen as most needed to improve investor trust and confidence was a better alignment of compensation with investor objectives (37% in Canada and 33% in the United States). In Brazil there was a stronger desire for zero-tolerance policies by top management for ethical breaches (41%).
When asked to identify the most serious ethical issues facing their local markets in the coming year, Brazil respondents were most concerned about the integrity of financial reporting (23%), followed by mis-selling by financial advisers (22%), and market fraud (22%). In Canada, misaligned incentives of investment management services (32%) was followed by mis-selling by financial advisers. In the United States, the largest concern was misaligned incentives of investment management services (23%), followed by market trading practices.


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Sunday, January 11, 2015

China becomes world's largest economy - putting USA in second place for the first time in 142 years

America usurped: China becomes world's largest economy - putting USA in second place for the first time in 142 years

  • Figures show the Chinese economy is worth $17.6 trillion, compared to America's $17.4 trillion
  • The IMF estimates China's economy will be worth a whopping $27 trillion in 2019
  • The US has been the global economic performance leader since it overtook Britain in 1872 
  • White House seemed oblivious on Wednesday, crowing that 'the economic policies that this president put in place are the envy of the world'
China has toppled America to become the biggest economy in the world, according to figures from the International Monetary Fund.
The White House seemed caught flat-footed by the news, crowing on Wednesday about America's relative economic strength in comparison with the rest of the world. 
The US has been the global leader since it overtook Britain in 1872, but has now lost its status as top dog.
The latest IMF figures show the Chinese economy is worth $17.61 trillion compared with $17.4 trillion for the U.S. 
Scroll down for video 
Economic battle:The International Monetary Fund has indicated that China, and not the US, is now the biggest economy in the world 
Economic battle:The International Monetary Fund has indicated that China, and not the US, is now the biggest economy in the world 
Out of the loop? US President Barack Obama touted America's manufacturing economy during an Oct. 3 speech at an Indiana steel company, claiming that jobs and work orders were no longer 'moving to China or other countries'
Out of the loop? US President Barack Obama touted America's manufacturing economy during an Oct. 3 speech at an Indiana steel company, claiming that jobs and work orders were no longer 'moving to China or other countries'

China – whose wealth has accelerated in recent decades amid rapid industrialization – is expected to extend its lead, with the IMF estimating its economy will be worth just under $26.98 trillion in 2019.
That would be 20 per cent bigger than the U.S. economy, which is forecast to be worth $22.3 trillion by then.
White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest seemed oblivious to the news as it percolated on Wednesday.
Asked for his assessment of the health of the global economy in the face of Russia's zero-sum economy and other troubles in Europe – including Germany's search for stimulus measures to head off a recession – Earnest crowed. 
Those conditions, he said, 'make the president's policies look pretty good. They certainly make the performance of the American economy look pretty good.'
'The United States is showing the kind of resilience that other counties are desperate for,' Earnest claimed. 'And a lot of that is due in no small part to the policies that this administration put in place.'
'There is no doubt that the economic policies that this president put in place are the envy of the world,' he boasted.
Earnest added that the White House is 'hoping that the economy of our allies and partners around the globe strengthens. We certainly would like to see that happen.'
He cited 'a tremendous record of progress that we have made here in the United States ... occurring against the backdrop of a global economy that continues to struggle.'
That, Earnest told reporters, 'is an indication of how strong the America economy is.' 
President Barack Obama himself showed his confidence in a U.S.-centered manufacturing economy on October 3 during a speech in Princeton, Indiana.
'About 10, 15 years ago, everybody said American manufacturing is going downhill, everything is moving to China or other countries,' Obama said. 'And the Midwest got hit a lot harder than a lot of places because we were the backbone of American manufacturing.'
'But because folks invested in new plants and new technologies, and there were hubs that were created between businesses and universities and community colleges so that workers could master and get trained in some of these new technologies, what we've now seen is manufacturing driving economic growth in a way we haven't seen in about 20-25 years.' 

Flat-footed: White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest claimed on Wednesday that 'there is no doubt that the economic policies that this president put in place are the envy of the world'
Silver lining: Without adjustments for living costs, the Chinese economy is still smaller than that of the US
Silver lining: Without adjustments for living costs, the Chinese economy is still smaller than that of the US
The latest IMF figures show the Chinese economy is worth $17.61 trillion, compared with $17.4 trillion for the US
The latest IMF figures show the Chinese economy is worth $17.61 trillion, compared with $17.4 trillion for the US
Spokespersons for several U.S. senators who serve on the Finance Committee did not respond to requests for comment. Two Republican aides said on background that they wouldn't be offering a critique. 
The new IMF analysis is based on a statistic called 'purchasing power parity' (PPP), which makes adjustments for the fact that goods are cheaper in China and other countries relative to the US.
Without these cost adjustments factored in, the Chinese economy is still smaller than that of the U.S., at $10.3 trillion. 
But experts have described the toppling of America after nearly 150 years by China, even on the PPP measure, as a 'symbolic' moment for the global economy.
China enjoyed three decades of double-digit growth before the global downturn, as industrialization and sweeping economic reforms created a new powerhouse in the East.
Growth has slowed in recent years but remains strong by Western standards with the IMF forecasting expansion of 7.4 per cent this year and 7.1 per cent in 2015.
By contrast, the IMF is predicting growth of just 2.2 per cent in the US this year and 3.1 per cent next year.
Financial powerhouse: In the last decade alone, the skyline of major cities in China, such as Shanghai (pictured), have been completely transformed as the economy grew in leaps and bounds
Financial powerhouse: In the last decade alone, the skyline of major cities in China, such as Shanghai (pictured), have been completely transformed as the economy grew in leaps and bounds

NUMBER ONE FOR 142 YEARS: HOW THE U.S. OVERTOOK BRITAIN AS THE WORLD'S ECONOMIC POWERHOUSE IN 1872 

Britain led the world in the industrial revolution of the mid-18th century, but America was hot on its heels.
The US underwent huge industrial expansion after its civil war ended in 1865, fueled by rapid urbanization and huge population growth – including the immigration of nearly 30 million Europeans.
In 1872, its economy overtook Britain to become the world's largest, a position it held for the next 142 years.
Productivity, leading brands and innovation, coupled with the success of the US dollar and the fact that 62 per cent of the world's financial reserves are held in the currency, kept America on top.
Meanwhile, the economies of Britain and other European powers were ravaged by two world wars. Britain borrowed heavily from America during the Second World War and received a further $4.3 billion in 1945.
China was the world's leading trading nation up to the 18th century, until control of its ports and trade were taken over by imperial nations in Europe. Under Communism it remained inward-looking, until 1980 when the government started to allow foreign investment.
The Fund said Tuesday that the U.S. and the UK 'are approaching economic lift-off' as they bounce back from the recession.
But Olivier Blanchard, chief economist at the IMF, warned that 'potential growth is lower than it was in the early 2000s' for much of the West, including the U.S. and the UK.
He added that China is 'maintaining high growth' which will slow in the coming years to a more 'healthy' level between 6 per cent and 7 per cent. Arvind Subramanian, senior fellow at the Washington-based Peterson Institute and an expert on China, recently highlighted the 'symbolic' importance of China overtaking the US.
'China is very big and getting bigger,' he said. 'It's not to be underestimated.'
The news that China is now the largest economy in the world is an embarrassment for Barack Obama and ends America's 142 years at the top. 
Britain had out-produced the U.S. and its European rivals for much of the 19th century, at the height of the industrial revolution and with trade links across the Empire. But the US caught up as a growing population, the expansion of the railways and a focus on industry as well as agriculture boosted its economy. 
China's wealth has accelerated in recent decades amid rapid industrialisation. Pictured, a car factory in Beijing
China's wealth has accelerated in recent decades amid rapid industrialisation. Pictured, a car factory in Beijing
China has a population of around 1.3 billion – four times that of the US – but its economy has only just become the biggest
China has a population of around 1.3 billion – four times that of the US – but its economy has only just become the biggest
The PPP measure of output makes India the third largest economy, followed by Japan in fourth place and Germany in fifth. 
Russia, Brazil, France, Indonesia and the UK make up the rest of the top 10 in that order.
Many economists believe the PPP measure of an economy is the fairest measure because it takes into account the cost of living in different countries.
For example, although wages are typically far lower in less developed countries than in mature economies, goods and services are often also cheaper, which affects individual consumers' comparative purchasing power.
But critics argue that analysis does not take into account how well off people actually are.
China has a population of around 1.3 billion – four times that of the U.S. – but its economy has only now become the biggest.
That means Americans are typically far wealthier than their Chinese counterparts, and better off than people in other emerging markets that benefit from huge work forces and more rapid growth. 

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