Wednesday, September 6, 2017

ROBERT SHILLER: Bitcoin is the 'best example right now' of a bubble

ROBERT SHILLER: Bitcoin is the 'best example right now' of a bubble

robert shillerRobert Shiller. Wendy Carlson/Getty Images
Robert Shiller, the Nobel-winning author who predicted the two biggest speculative markets in recent history, is repeating that bitcoin is in a bubble.
The cryptocurrency is "the best example right now," Shiller told Quartz's John Detrixhe in an interview published Tuesday. In January 2014 at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, he called the cryptocurrency "an amazing example of a bubble," adding that there was "no question about it."
Bitcoin has exploded in price and popularity since then. Bitcoin was at $4,337 on Tuesday, or about 442% over its price in January 2014 of about $800 a coin.
For evidence that bitcoin is in a bubble, Shiller pointed to "a fundamental deep angst of our digitization and computers, that people wonder what their place is in this new world." That fear gives some people a sense that they know the future and can profit from it, he told Quartz.
It's the same kind of angst that President Donald Trump addressed while he was campaigning, Shiller said.
Shiller's "Irrational Exuberance" is a seminal book that forecast the tech-stock and housing crashes and outlined the investor behavior that created both bubbles. The speed of bitcoin's rally has far outpaced most recent bubbles, as the chart below shows:
Shiller also told Quartz that there were "aspects of a housing bubble and a stock-market bubble right now." The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio that he popularized shows that stocks are the most expensive since the tech bubble collapsed in 2000.

Head over to Quartz for the full interview »

Get the latest Bitcoin price here.

WALL STREET PAYDAY: Banks could make more than $100 million in fees from the massive United Technologies acquisition

WALL STREET PAYDAY: Banks could make more than $100 million in fees from the massive United Technologies acquisition

womens world cup victoryPlenty to celebrate for the bankers on this lucrative deal.Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Sports
UTX Utd Technologies
 110.40 -0.82 (-0.70 %)
DisclaimerGet real-time UTX charts here »
United Technologies announced its $30 billion acquisition of Rockwell Collins Monday, in a deal that would create one of the largest airline-equipment suppliers in the world. 
The final $140-a-share price tagthat United Technologies paid represents an 18% premium over the $119 Rockwell was trading at before deal rumors surfaced in early August, according to Reuters. 
Wall Street bankers are set to make a fat payday of as much as $105 million on the mega-deal. 
Morgan Stanley will haul in an estimated $35 million to $45 million for advising United Technologies, according to Jeffrey Nassof, director of consulting firm Freeman & Co.
JPMorgan and Citigroup will share an estimated $45 million to $60 million for advising Rockwell Collins. 
The airplane parts makers, which spent the last month trying to reach a deal, are expected to have combined sales of nearly $70 billion in 2017.
The deal is expected to close in the third quarter of 2018. 

Russia's inflation drops to its lowest level since the collapse of the Soviet Union

Russia's inflation drops to its lowest level since the collapse of the Soviet Union

russia supermarketA customer shops at a Victoria supermarket operated by Russian food retailer Dixy Group in Moscow, Russia, October 20, 2016.Maxim Zmeyev/Reuters
Russia's inflation dropped to a post-communist low.
Inflation fell to 3.3% year-over-year in August, according to the country's state statistics service.
That's the lowest reading in the post-USSR era, according to data from Trading Economics.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected a reading of 3.7%, following up on July's 3.9%.
"[W]e expect the headline rate to remain below the central bank's 4% target over our forecast horizon," according to William Jackson, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, in a note to clients.
Looking under the hood of the data, food inflation fell to 2.6% year-over-year from the prior month's 3.8%. Non-food goods inflation dropped as well.
"Against this backdrop, we remain confident with our forecast that the central bank will cut the policy interest rate to 8.0% by the end of this year and to 6.0% by end-2018, from 9.0% now," Jackson added. "This is more easing than the markets are currently pricing in."
His team forecasts that the central bank will cut rates by 50 basis points at its next meeting, which will be next week on September 15. 

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