Wednesday, June 14, 2017

Janet Yellen will have a harder time than usual justifying Fed policy at this week's press conference

Janet Yellen will have a harder time than usual justifying Fed policy at this week's press conference

janet yellenUS Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen. Kevin Lamarque/Reuters
Once every three months, reporters get to ask Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen questions.
The Fed's two-day meeting begins Tuesday, and it will be accompanied by the release of quarterly economic forecasts and Yellen's press briefing.
And at this particular meeting, which is expected to yield another quarter-percentage-point increase in the official federal funds rate target range, Yellen will have more explaining to do than usual. That's because the economic data since the last meeting has turned rather noticeably more sour.
In particular, US inflation, which Wall Street had momentarily expected to finally start moving higher after the start of Donald Trump's presidency following several years of undershooting the Fed's 2% target, has once again veered lower.
"As increasingly pronounced weakness and ample uncertainty appear to be seeping into the latest round of economic figures, the Fed may have a more difficult time than previously anticipated justifying a rate hike," says Lindsey Piegza, the chief economist at Stifel Nicolaus.
Core pce socgenSociete Genrale
The most recent sign of softness in the economy came with the May employment report, which showed not only a slowdown in hiring but also downward revisions for the prior two months.
"Although the market appears to be giving policymakers the green light to move ahead with the second hike this year, at least some members on the Federal Reserve will likely question the Fed’s policy pathway as the economy and inflation appear to be underperforming relative to the Committee’s latest projections," Piegza said.
The US central bank left interest rates near zero between December 2008 and 2015, in addition to buying more than $3 trillion in government and mortgage bonds, in an effort to tame the deepest recession in generations and then jump-start the weakest recovery in modern times. The effort was only partly successful, preventing a second Great Depression but nonetheless allowing for a deep and protracted downturn that has left long-lasting scars on the job market and the labor force.
This has prompted some prominent economists to call for more-aggressive steps from the central bank such as a higher inflation goal, particularly given an inflation rate that remains consistently below the Fed's target.
"While a rate hike now seems likely Wednesday, the right thing to do would be to not raise interest rates at all," according to Lars Christensen, the economist who founded Markets & Money Advisory, in a new blog post. "The only thing Fed Chair Janet Yellen and her colleagues will accomplish is to undermine the credibility of their 2% inflation target and to confirm that the actual target is 1.7%."

May is essentially being forced to either reverse Article 50 or seal a 'soft Brexit' deal for Britain

May is essentially being forced to either reverse Article 50 or seal a 'soft Brexit' deal for Britain

may eu1Reuters
  • Some of the European Union's most prominent politicians are giving Prime Minister Theresa May the option to cancel Brexit.
  • Politicians within May's Conservative party as well as former Prime Minister David Cameron are urging her to push for a "soft Brexit."
  • Considering May's Conservative Party failed to win a majority on June 8, she is effectively forced to reverse Article 50 or soften her Brexit stance because of a lack of power in Parliament.
LONDON — Prime Minister Theresa May is being encouraged to either reverse Article 50, and cancel Britain's plan to leave the European Union, or seal a "soft Brexit" deal that is less harsh than what she was pushing for before the snap general election.
May triggered Article 50 in March, which started the official two-year window during which Britain must negotiate its deal to leave the EU. Britain will leave the EU on March 29, 2019 — unless she calls to reverse it and the 27 other EU member states vote unanimously to allow her to do so.
Some of the most powerful people in Europe are now gathering around and telling May (and the public) in no uncertain terms that Britain is welcome to cancel Brexit. On Tuesday afternoon that was made incredibly clear by two prominent EU politicians.
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told Bloomberg that while it was "up to the British government to take their own decisions," Germany would not stand in the way of the UK returning to the union.
"If they wanted to change their decision, of course, they would find open doors," he added.
The door is always open as long as the negotiations on Brexit have not finished.
Shortly afterwards, French President Emmanuel Macron pretty much said the same thing. "Of course the door is always open as long as the negotiations on Brexit have not finished," Macron said in a press conference.
He added, however, that even once Brexit talks start "we need to be collectively clear that it's more difficult to reverse course."
It seems like a big change of tact from what the EU's chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier, said just hours earlier. He warned Britain that it risked crashing out of the EU without a Brexit deal if it continued to "waste" time by delaying talks.
"Next week, it will be three months after the sending of the Article 50 letter," Barnier said. "We haven't negotiated, we haven't progressed. Thus we must begin this negotiation. We are ready as soon as the UK itself is ready.
"My preoccupation is that time is passing, it is passing quicker than anyone believes because the subjects we have to deal with are extraordinarily complex. I can't negotiate with myself."
So the pressure from the EU is either to start talks right now — even though May is scrambling to form a minority government — or to just reverse Article 50 altogether. And the pressure from within Britain's Parliament, as well as people within her own Conservative Party, is not any less hard.
It looks as if she only has two options:
1. Reverse Article 50.
2. Push for a soft Brexit.

The general election killed 'hard Brexit' plans

David CameronFormer Prime Minister David Cameron. REUTERS/Luke MacGregor
May campaigned for "Remain" during the EU referendum, but since taking over for David Cameron as prime minister she has continuously pledged for a "hard Brexit" — relinquishing access to the European single market in lieu of full control over immigration and freedom for the UK to develop its own trade deals.
This plan is popular with hardcore Brexiteers. Immigration is the biggest issue among those wanting to leave the EU, a repudiation of the ease of travel among member states.
Brexiteers say it should be a Brexit no matter what — and a hard Brexit does make that unequivocally so — but the Brexit vote barely won. On June 23 last year, 51.89% of voters chose to Leave, while 48.11% voted to Remain. The country was pretty much split 50/50.
That was why May called for a snap election in April; she was hoping to gain a bigger majority for her Conservative Party in Parliament. The greater the majority, the easier it is to push through legislation.
I think there will be pressure for a softer Brexit. Over Brexit, she is going to have to talk more widely, listen to other parties.
But the Conservatives failed to win 326 seats in the general election — denying them even an outright majority. The party still won a plurality of seats (318) and votes (12,667,213, or 42.8%).
But the problem now is that while May is trying to form a minority government through a deal with Northern Ireland's Democratic Unionist Party, she will still need to persuade most of her party to vote for what she pushes through.
But key members of the party want a soft Brexit. That would seek to preserve access to the single market and freedom of travel but sacrifice the UK's negotiating power post-Brexit.
Former Prime Minister David Cameron told the Financial Times that May should adopt a "softer" Brexit, and he even urged her to talk to the main opposition party, Labour, about coming to an agreement over the type of Brexit deal Britain should pursue.
"It's going to be difficult, there's no doubt about that, but perhaps an opportunity to consult more widely with the other parties on how best we can achieve it," he said. "I think there will be pressure for a softer Brexit. Over Brexit, she is going to have to talk more widely, listen to other parties."
Davidson, who led the Scottish Conservatives to their best result in a general election since 1983 and helped buoy up seats for the party overall, said her powerful faction of Scottish Tories would be a "separate party" when it comes to Brexit talks.
Ruth Davidson disappointedJeff J Mitchell / Getty
"I think what is clear is that there is a commitment from around that cabinet table, from within the Conservative Party, to now work with others to make sure that we go after the best economic deal," she said.
"In terms of how we reach out to others and how we take on board their ideas there is lots of work to be done. But I do think that there can be changes in the offer of Brexit as we go forward."
So really, May is stuck.
She cannot feasibly push for a hard Brexit anymore. She will not get enough backing to do that. So that leaves only one other option — reversing Article 50, thereby cancelling Brexit and making the past two years one of the biggest wastes of time in political history.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of Business Insider.

Tuesday, June 13, 2017

How a 36-year-old Wall Street prodigy saved Burger King

How a 36-year-old Wall Street prodigy saved Burger King

Daniel SchwartzDaniel Schwartz.Restaurant Brands International CEO Daniel Schwartz.
QSR Restaurant Brand
 57.42 0.39 (+0.70 %)
DisclaimerGet real-time QSR charts here »
Daniel Schwartz had spent a decade working his way up the corporate ladder on Wall Street when he decided to test his skills in a different trade: cooking burgers and cleaning toilets at a Burger King restaurant in Miami.
"It was a disaster," Schwartz said of his time working a Burger King drive-thru. "For the life of me, I could not make a good-looking ice-cream cone."
But getting better at making ice-cream cones wasn't really the point. The investment-banking analyst turned private-equity whiz kid had just been named CEO of the fast-food chain, the second-biggest burger company in the world.
Schwartz, a self-described millennial, had never worked in a restaurant before, let alone run a company. At 32, he was one of the youngest major restaurant CEOs in history.
So he rolled up his sleeves and got to work in Burger King's kitchens, to find out why the fast-food chain's sales were essentially unchanged while chains like Chipotle and Panera were notching double-digit growth.
For months, Schwartz split his time between the corporate offices and the restaurant kitchens where he would work the broiler, assemble sandwiches, and take customer orders. He even scrubbed toilets and washed the floors.
Schwartz sat down with Business Insider on Friday for his first media interview since becoming CEO. He said he had one big takeaway from that early experience in restaurants: that Burger King's menu was out of control.
"It was so confusing — like really confusing in terms of which sauces need to go on which burgers, which toppings go where — and it was leading to worse order accuracy and a lot of waste, too," he said.
That's why one of Schwartz's first moves as CEO was to simplify the menu by stripping it of dozens of products. He also launched a more rigorous process for selecting and rolling out new-product launches.
"Our menu had gotten really complicated," Schwartz said. "We were doing way too much innovation and way too many limited-time offers."
Schwartz also took a hatchet to corporate expenses by slashing executive perks — a hallmark of Burger King's owner, private-equity firm 3G Capital, where Schwartz is a partner.
At the same time, Schwartz negotiated deals with restaurant operators in Brazil, China, Russia, and other international markets, which helped grow the number of Burger Kings worldwide by 21% to 16,768 in four years.
Suddenly same-store sales started growing after years of stagnation.
Then 3G Capital executed a deal to buy Canadian coffee chain Tim Hortons in 2014 and created a new parent company, Restaurant Brands International, to oversee the two brands with Schwartz at the helm.
This year, the company added Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen to Restaurant Brands' portfolio in a $1.8 billion deal.
When Schwartz took over Burger King, its market value was estimated to be about $9 billion. Restaurant Brands is now the third-largest fast-food company in the world by market share, according to Euromonitor, and it's valued at $27 billion. Within the last year, its stock price has soared by more than 35%.
Schwartz, now 36, is sitting at the top, earning more than $6 million in annual compensation.

How a Wall Street whiz kid landed at the helm of Burger King

Burger King Daniel Schwartz CEOBurger King
Schwartz grew up on Long Island, New York, and assumed, until college, that he would follow in his father's footsteps and become a dentist or perhaps a doctor like his uncles.
In high school, he split his time between his classes, playing basketball, and tutoring math to other students — a job he got by advertising his services through a paid ad in the local newspaper. He enrolled in Cornell University in the fall of 1997 with the expectation that he would study medicine there, until a Finance 101 course sent him down another path.
Inspired by his class, he started reading a number of business books in his free time and took a particular interest in the surge of private-equity buyouts in the 1980s. He landed several internships in finance and after college, he got a job working in mergers and acquisitions at Credit Suisse.
It was there that Schwartz got what he said is one of the best pieces of advice he ever received.
"Someone said to me, 'You have to work really, really hard to put yourself in a position to get lucky,'" Schwartz recalled.
In 2005, when he was 24, Schwartz got lucky. He was hired by 3G Capital, a Brazilian investment firm that has made a reputation for itself by building the massive beer conglomerate Anheuser-Busch InBev. It is also the preferred investment partner of billionaire Warren Buffett.
Schwartz worked hard, long hours and rose quickly through the ranks at 3G. After a few years, he was promoted to partner and, not long after that, when 3G was looking to buy a company in the US, he was tasked with finding acquisitions.
"I came across Burger King, and my theory was that the value of the brand was much bigger than the value of the business," he said. "It was the second-largest fast-food chain in the world with $14 billion in system sales and it was operating in 80 countries, and its total value was only a few billion dollars compared to McDonald's," which had a market cap of about $60 billion at the time.
After the buyout, Schwartz asked if he could help run the fast-food company, and he became its chief financial officer. He said he was a little terrified.
"I was 30 and never worked in a company [operationally] so I was certainly not comfortable at first," Schwartz said.
It seems like Schwartz got comfortable pretty quickly. In less than three years, he was promoted to CEO.

Cutting the fat

When Schwartz wasn't dressing burgers or shrinking Burger King's menu in his first couple of months as CEO, he was weeding out and axing corporate perks.
He sold Burger King's corporate jet, put an end to a $1 million annual party at a chateau in Italy, and did away with lavish offices that employees called "Mahogany Row."
"Our office is across the street from the airport," Schwartz said of Burger King's headquarters, in Miami. "I said, 'Do we really need a corporate jet? No. We can fly commercial.'"
RBI stock priceRestaurant Brands International's stock price.Markets Insider
Little was safe from Schwartz's cuts — even pencils and pens.
He said he capped an "endless stream of office supplies" flowing into the home office.
"We found closets and closets of office supplies — enough for three years," Schwartz said.
He reduced Burger King's corporate headcount from 38,884 to 1,200, largely by refranchising restaurants, meaning many of those workers now report to franchise owners. By refranchising restaurants, or selling company-owned restaurants to franchisees, he effectively pushed costs for remodels onto operators (though Burger King says it still helps franchisees pay some of those costs). The company owned more than 1,300 restaurants in 2010. Now it owns just 71.
Schwartz got a crash course in corporate cost cutting at 3G Capital, which has a distinguished track record of buying companies, implementing aggressive cost cuts and, in turn, delivering strong returns to shareholders.
The company orchestrated one of the biggest corporate takeovers in history when it formed the world’s biggest beer maker, Anheuser-Busch InBev, in 2015. 3G also formed the world's fifth-largest food and beverage company that year with its merger of Kraft Foods and Heinz.
Schwartz said his cost-cutting approach stems from 3G's "ownership culture," or the mentality that employees should "always put the business before themselves" and, in that vein, treat the company's money as if it's their own.
To get his employees accustomed to that idea, Schwartz said he spent a lot of time explaining his methodology during visits to the corporate offices. He also started requiring corporate employees to spend a couple of days a year working in the company's restaurants, as he did when he started at Burger King, and he created quick avenues for advancement for subscribers to his philosophy.

'You only learn by walking around'

Schwartz's home is in Miami with his wife and two young daughters, but he spends most of his time traveling.
"I literally live on American Airlines' 737 commercial airplane," Schwartz said.
When Schwartz travels, he typically wears the same uniform everywhere he goes: a denim shirt embroidered with the Burger King insignia. When he's in Canada, he swaps out his Burger King shirts for a similar set bearing Tim Hortons' name. He plans to add a Popeyes shirt to the rotation soon.
His travels take him to Burger King's US headquarters, Tim Hortons' home office in Toronto, the companies' international offices in Switzerland and Singapore, and to other countless cities around the world for meetings with franchise partners.
"I believe in MWA — management by walking around — so I spend as much time as possible traveling and visiting franchise partners," Schwartz said. "You only learn by walking around and meeting people."
Burger KingYouTube
He said most of the cost cuts he implemented at Burger King were carried out in his first year as CEO, and since then he's been almost solely focused on growing the business through new restaurant openings.
When 3G bought Burger King, it had roughly $14 billion in annual sales and was growing by about 150 new restaurants a year. Last year, the company's total sales had grown to $18.2 billion and it opened 735 new Burger King restaurants worldwide.
He has increased the rate of restaurant upgrades, bringing the number of renovations from 10% of total restaurants five years ago to more than 60% today.
And after slimming down the menu, the company started rolling out new products again through what Schwartz said is a more measured approach. The strategy has been successful, with limited-time items like Chicken Fries and Mac N' Cheetos helping to boost sales.
Burger King has started to close the gap with its No. 1 competitor, McDonald's, in per-restaurant sales, and in doing so nearly doubled franchisees' profits, according to Schwartz. Burger King's sales per unit have grown from $1.1 million to $1.3 million during his tenure. McDonald's is still far ahead, however, with $2.5 million in sales per unit.
Schwartz said Burger King would eventually close that gap.
"We feel like we are just getting started," he said.

Monday, June 12, 2017

This Wall Street veteran has raised $107 million to build the 'app store' of financial services

This Wall Street veteran has raised $107 million to build the 'app store' of financial services

MADRID, SPAIN — Fintech startup R3CEV raised $107 million from a consortium of the world's top banks last month, one of the largest funding rounds for a startup working with distributed ledger technology.
The company was founded in 2014 by Wall Street veteran David Rutter to try and bring the technology behind bitcoin — blockchain, a.k.a. distributed ledger technology — to high finance.
It initially formed a consortium of the world's leading banks and 40 of them, including Bank of America Merrill Lynch and HSBC, invested in May's round.
Business Insider sat down with Rutter at the MoneyConf conference in Madrid this week to hear about what R3CEV plans to do with its war chest. He told BI that his company is trying to build the "operating system for finance," comparing it to a platform like Apple's App Store.
"You should really think about us being the operating system, the platform, the app store, a bit of the distributed ledger technology, the foundational pieces that allow you to utilise all of the infrastructures and really build an application that means something to you and your business and to you and your customers," Rutter told BI.

What is blockchain and why are banks excited?

Banks around the world have been talking about the potential of blockchain to transform finance for almost two years now. Blockchain is a form of shared database originally developed to underpin the digital currency bitcoin. It enables all parties on a network to see the same version of a database and uses complex cryptography and group authentication to police the editing of it.
The inbuilt security and trust checks allow banks to potentially cut out middlemen in processes like settlement and clearing and deal directly with each other. This, in turn, cuts down costs. Santander estimated in a 2015 report that the technology could save banks as much as $20 billion per annum collectively.
"What we have today is all these companies that have either bespoke software or third party software and it doesn’t communicate easily," Rutter says of the problems blockchain could address. "You have tens of billions spent each year on writing APIs between your trading systems and your order management systems and your trading systems and the like."
R3CEV works closely big banks to understand what they want about the technology. As well as counting 40 major banks as investors, a further 50 are members of R3CEV's consortium — a kind of club for global banks to get together to discuss the technology.
Rutter says there are several "themes" that banks are interested in when it comes to deploying distributed ledger tech: trade finance, "because it’s massive, it’s very paper-based, and it’s not so automated,"; global digital identification, to help banks cut down on the cost of identity and anti-money laundering checks; post-trade processing; and payments.

'We view it as the operating system for finance'

R3CEV itself doesn't actually build software to tackle these problems. Rather, it builds a platform for these solutions to be built on.
"We view it as the operating system for finance," Rutter says. Just as Microsoft makes the Windows operating system, which runs programmes like Word or Excel, R3CEV has developed Corda, a blockchain-based platform that can be used by developers to build apps for banks.
Rutter says: "Corda is a completely open system that is going to empower entrepreneurs to be able to build Corda apps, roll them out, and actually have them be adopted because they will work with the current financial rails, in a way that is cognizant of and compliant with the regulatory regime"
R3CEV publically announced Corda in April 2016 and open sourced the technology. Rutter says there are some projects running on Corda today but most of R3CEV's revenues still come from membership fees. The company charges banks to join its consortium, allowing them to participate in lab experiments using its technology and shape its development.
But Rutter says: "The revenue mix will go from lab membership fees and services to enterprise software licensing fees being the massive portion of our revenues five years from now."
Developing the Corda platform is one of the main things that R3CEV will spend its $107 million on, as well as encouraging entrepreneurs to start building on the platform through training videos and hackathons.

'R3 has just been legitimised'

But Rutter says the chunky investment is more than just money. "The big step forward with this funding is Corda and R3 has just been legitimised by not just a $107 million investment, but we’re now majority owned by the world’s largest financial institutions. There’s no safer bet in the world."
This endorsement will help R3CEV, which has offices in New York and London, attract developers onto its platform, he believes.
"One point I try to get across when I meet these new entrepreneurs with a great idea is that if you are a JPMorgan or a Goldman Sachs or a Wells Fargo or HSBC, you can see an amazing presentation by a company that has five, ten, 20 employees and $10 million in the bank," Rutter says. "You CANNOT go to your boss and say I want to move this mission critical function to this thinly capitalised 20 man shop.
"It’s why the IBMs of the world, the Accentures of the world, the KPMGs of the world get so much business providing these services. It’s because they’re reliable and they’re going to be around for a long time."
Rutter hopes the endorsement and funding from top banks will put R3CEV into these ranks.
But not all banks are so hot on the project. JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Santander, and State Street all joined R3CEV's consortium at the start before leaving and have not invested.JPMorgan is also one of the founding members of the Ethereum Enterprise Alliance, a rival consortium looking at how Ethereum, a rival blockchain platform, can be used in business.
Rutter is bullish. "Those guys [banks who left R3], I’m sure they’ll work with R3 in the future, especially as we become the standard. As you know, the network part of this is very important. There’s been a lot of people that have talked about this as being a team sport. You could talk to the 90 members of R3 and they would increase the confidence that we’re on the right track with the right sponsorship. They’ll come back. They were there at the beginning, they’ll come back."

Follow Fintech Briefing and never miss an update!

EU chief Jean-Claude Juncker urged Theresa May to hold the election that makes Brexit even more complicated

EU chief Jean-Claude Juncker urged Theresa May to hold the election that makes Brexit even more complicated

May JunckerREUTERS/Hannah McKay
LONDON — European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker urged Theresa May to hold a general election to make the job of negotiating Brexit easier, a report from The Observer released on Sunday says.
Juncker, who has been one of the most vociferous critics of Brexit in Brussels, urged May on several occasions to hold the election, telling her it would give her more breathing room during "pinch points" in negotiations around leaving the EU.
"It is understood that Juncker had advised May to call an early general election as a result of his concerns that the 17-seat majority she had inherited from David Cameron would not be enough during the pinch points of the negotiations, including over the issue of the UK’s divorce bill, estimated to be as much as €100bn," Toby Helm and Daniel Boffey of the Observer write, citing an EU source.
"During bilaterals, in the margins of summits, Juncker repeatedly told her he thought she should do it," the source reportedly said.
May called an election in April with the rationale that she could win a bigger majority in the House of Commons, and consequently be less in the thrall of hardline Brexiteers in the party. However, her decision backfired spectacularly as a disastrous campaign from the Conservative Party and a huge surge in support for Labour's Jeremy Corbyn robbed May of her majority.
That has made the prospect of negotiating Brexit, which many believe will be one of the most complex political negotiations in history, even more tricky as May will likely struggle to pass legislation through parliament if even a handful of MPs rebel. A Conservative minority government is likely to be propped up by a "confidence and supply" agreement with the Northern Irish Democratic Unionist Party.
Juncker and May's relationship has been strained in recent months, especially after Juncker's team leaked details of a dinner between the pair at Downing Street. 
An extensive leak of a meeting between Juncker and Theresa May appeared in the German press early in May, depicting Juncker as dismayed at May's position on Brexit negotiations. He reportedly told May as he left the dinner: "I leave Downing Street 10 times more skeptical than I was before."
May then claimed in a speech outside Downing Street that EU officials were deliberately attempting to swing the result of the election on June 8th by undertaking such leaks.

728 X 90

336 x 280

300 X 250

320 X 100

300 X600