Thursday, June 8, 2017

Chinese trade data tops expectations as imports and exports surge

Chinese trade data tops expectations as imports and exports surge

Chinese trade data topped expectations in May with imports and exports both growing at a faster annual pace than the levels reported in April.
According to China’s Customs Bureau, exports grew by 8.7% from a year earlier in US dollar terms, faster than the 8% pace of April and above the 7% increase forecast by economists.
Between January to May, exports increased by 8.2% compared to the the same period a year earlier.

Import growth also impressed, rising 14.8% from the levels of a year earlier. That was an improvement on the 11.9% pace of April and topped expectations for an increase of 8.5%.
In volume terms, imports of copper, crude oil and iron ore all increased, rising to 390,000 tonnes, 37.2 million tonnes and 91.52 million tonnes respectively.
The one exception was coal — likely due to supply disruptions along Australia’s east coast during the month — which fell to 22.19 million tonnes from 24.78 million tonnes in April.
In the first five months of the year, the value of imports lifted 19.5% from the same period in 2016. This reflects a combination of higher commodity prices along with increased demand.
As a result of the strength in imports, the trade surplus grew to $40.81 billion, below the $46.32 billion level expected.
It was slightly higher than the $38.05 billion surplus reported a month earlier.
Financial markets have reacted positively to the trade report, boding well for both Chinese and global demand, bidding up risk assets such as stocks, commodity futures and the commodity-linked Australian dollar in recent trade.
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Read more at https://www.businessinsider.com.au/chinese-trade-data-tops-expectations-as-imports-and-exports-surge-2017-6#LhCGssvwhD5hB4f6.99

ECB stays on hold in June and effectively rules out further rate cuts

ECB stays on hold in June and effectively rules out further rate cuts

Mario DraghiReuters/Denis Balibouse
LONDON — The European Central Bank released its latest monetary policy decisions on Thursday afternoon, following the June meeting of its governing council.
Monetary policy stayed on hold, with the ECB maintaining a deposit rate of -0.4% for banks, a base interest rate of 0.0%, and a quantitative easing (QE) program of up to €60 billion per month.
The decision comes as ECB President Mario Draghi and his fellow governing council members are yet to be convinced that the recent rebound in inflation in the eurozone is durable because wage growth remains sluggish.
While policy did not change, the ECB made a crucial change to the statement accompanying the decision, changing a sentence in the first paragraph from:
"The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels for an extended period of time,"
to
"The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present levels for an extended period of time."
Removing the words "or lower" from the statement effectively means that the ECB is now ruling out taking interest rates further into negative territory in the foreseeable future, removing its easing bias to monetary policy.
"This is a small, but significant, change in the bias of interest rates setting," Pantheon Macroeconomics' Chief Eurozone Economist Claus Vistesen writes in an emailed note.
Draghi will take questions from journalists at 1.30 p.m. BST (8.30 a.m. ET) in the Estonian capital Tallinn at the bank's annual conference away from its Frankfurt HQ. He will likely address the monetary policy decisions, as well as Wednesday's sudden takeover of Banco Popular by fellow Spanish lender Santander as part of an ECB-backed plan to prevent Popular from collapsing.
The euro dropped sharply on the announcement, falling from 1.1244 on the dollar to $1.1225, before climbing a little almost immediately, as the chart below shows:Screen Shot 2017 06 08 at 12.53.56Investing.com

Wednesday, June 7, 2017

Cash-rich companies are king in the stock market right now

Cash-rich companies are king in the stock market right now

Henry VIIIKing Henry VIII. upload.wikimedia.org
The days of easy money are over.
And with the Federal Reserve expected to hike interest rates later this month, equity investors are seeking companies well-equipped to withstand tighter lending conditions.
In other words, they want to buy stocks with strong balance sheets — ones with easy access to liquidity and minimal debt exposure. And they've already started.
Shares of firms with strong balance sheets are up by 11% this year, outpacing their flimsier brethren by 3.5 percentage points, according to data compiled by Goldman Sachs and Bloomberg. That's the widest spread in 14 months for a period of that length.
The recent outperformance has helped the strong-balance-sheet group close the gap on its weaker peers, which have piggybacked off an unprecedented wave of debt financing to bigger gains throughout the eight-year bull market.
weak vs strong balance sheetBusiness Insider / Andy Kiersz, data from Goldman Sachs / Bloomberg
The accommodative lending conditions, combined with an improving economic picture, created ideal conditions for traders looking to take on the added risk of companies with less-than-stellar finances. And it paid off. The weak-balance-sheet group rallied by 50% in 2013, beating the 30% advance in the S&P 500 that was itself the best return since 1997.
But now that the increasingly hawkish Fed has started to tighten, the days of easy gains in highly leveraged stocks appear to be winding down. After all, higher-quality companies are better suited to absorb market shocks and don't experience as much volatility.
The strong-balance-sheet basket maintained by Goldman contains 50 companies across eight core S&P 500 industries that rank highest in measures comparing equity to total liabilities and earnings to assets, compiled in a gauge known as the Altman Z-Score.
As of an update in January, the basket contained Facebook and Google's parent, Alphabet, which make up half of the so-called FANG group (along with Netflix and Amazon) that has led gains in major US indexes this year. The index also held such companies as Starbucks, Monster Beverage, Exxon Mobil, Bristol-Myers Squibb, and 3M.
Get the latest Goldman Sachs stock price here.

HSBC could face a fresh lawsuit over alleged forex manipulation

HSBC could face a fresh lawsuit over alleged forex manipulation

FILE PHOTO: The logo on the building of HSBC's London headquarters appears through the early morning mist in London's Canary Wharf financial district, Britain March 28, 2017.    REUTERS/Russell Boyce/File PhotoFILE PHOTO: The logo on the building of HSBC's London headquarters appears through the early morning mist in London's Canary Wharf financial district Thomson Reuters
LONDON — Europe's largest lender by assets, HSBC, faces a new legal challenge over alleged historical manipulation of the foreign exchange markets, according to a report from the Financial Times on Wednesday.
The FT says that the bank could face legal proceedings over allegations that some of its traders manipulated markets to help their own profits, doing so at the expense of clients. Those allegations are made by ECU Group, a currency investment firm and client of the bank.
ECU has "filed an application to London’s commercial court asking for HSBC to be required to hand over records relating to three large foreign exchange orders it executed in 2006," the FT's report says.
Those records would include "HSBC’s interbank dealing tickets, deal log entries and any relevant Bloomberg instant messages," relating to three trades made in 2006. The trades were all worth over $100 million each and were so-called "stop loss" trades. Stop loss trades are designed to limit losses by selling an asset — in this case, a currency — at a certain price and buying another.
ECU had previously believed that it was being "ripped off" by HSBC traders, and complained about the issue to HSBC, which then promised a full internal inquiry. That inquiry found no wrongdoing, after which time ECU dropped its complaints against HSBC.
Both ECU and HSBC declined to comment when contacted by Business Insider.
More: HSBC Forex ECU

Tuesday, June 6, 2017

FTSE 100 down as polls narrow further ahead of the general election

FTSE 100 down as polls narrow further ahead of the general election

Three actors, portraying Theresa May, Jeremy Corbyn and Tim Farron, at a new general election themed attraction called 'Poll-tergeist', which is an addition to Derren Brown�s Ghost Train: Rise of the Demon attraction at Thorpe Park Resort in Surrey, aimed at encouraging young people to get involved with the vote.Three actors portraying, from left, Theresa May, Jeremy Corbyn and Tim Farron. Matt Alexander/PA Wire/PA Images
LONDON — The FTSE 100 opened slightly down on Tuesday morning as polls showed Labour closing in further on the Conservatives as Thursday's general election approaches.
The mood of investors appears relatively calm ahead of the election despite a Survation poll, published late on Monday evening, suggesting Labour are within one point of the Conservatives, introducing the prospect of a hung parliament or coalition government which could unsettle markets.
Here is how it looks in in early afternoon trading. The bourse was down 0.2% to trade at 7,511 points at 12.42 p.m. BST (7.42 a.m. ET):
Screen Shot 2017 06 06 at 12.42.39Markets Insider
Traders do not appear significantly unsettled by the polls.
Kathleen Brooks, research analyst at City Index, says in a note (emphasis ours):
"Late last night another Survation poll has put the Conservatives a mere 1.1 point ahead of Labour, well within the margin of error, with just two days of campaigning to go. We have pointed out that there are multiple polls, and not all are as negative on the Tories as Survation appears to be."
"It is worth remembering that betting odds still put the chances of a Conservative majority at 92%, so the prospect of an adverse outcome remains a key risk for asset prices in the short term."
The biggest fallers on the index in early trading are medical products company Convatec, down 4.88%, and fashion house Burberry, down 2.16%. Early risers include airline EasyJet, rallying 1.41% after a drop yesterday.
Elsewhere safe-havens, led by precious metal gold, saw a rally driven by increased demand ahead of three key market events on Thursday: the UK election, an ECB policy meeting, and ex-FBI chief James Comey's testimony following his sacking by US President Donald Trump.
US crude oil prices were down as the oil markets continue to battle with volatility linked to sour relations between oil-producing countries in the Middle East.

Some Tesla owners may see their insurance cost surge 30%

Some Tesla owners may see their insurance cost surge 30%

Tesla Model SA Tesla Model S.Tesla
TSLA Tesla
 349.71 2.45 (+0.70 %)
DisclaimerGet real-time TSLA charts here »
Some Tesla owners are about to see a hike in their insurance rates.
US insurance provider AAA plans to raise its rates after seeing a high number of claim frequencies among Model S and Model X owners, Automotive News first reported. Premiums could surge as high as 30%, AAA told Automotive News.
AAA based its analysis off of data provided from the Highway Loss Data Institute (HLDI), as well as other sources.
The HLDI conducts studies for the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, a nonprofit dedicated to reducing crashes.
The report by the HLDI divided 2014-16 vehicles by size, weight, and competing models. It compared the Model S and Model X to vehicles like the Volvo XC70, Mercedes-Benz E-Class, and Maserati Ghibli.
"Teslas get into a lot of crashes and they're expensive to repair," Russ Rader, the spokesperson for the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety, told Business Insider. "The rates aren't abnormally high. They're to be expected based on results for competitors."
A Tesla spokesperson, however, told Business Insider that the HLDI's analysis is "severely flawed" because it neglects to compare the Model S and Model X to its real peers:
"This analysis is severely flawed and is not reflective of reality. Among other things, it compares Model S and X to cars that are not remotely peers, including even a Volvo station wagon. Model S has the fastest 0 to 60 mph time of any production car ever tested by Motor Trend, and Model X has by far the best acceleration of any SUV. Obviously, it is false and misleading to compare them to a station wagon without explaining this discrepancy."
The AAA did not return Business Insider's request for comment.
AAA's decision comes at a time where other insurance companies are preparing to reduce premiums for Tesla owners as the cars get safer with self-driving technology.
A government report found that crash rates for Tesla vehicles have dropped 40% since Autopilot was first installed.
Farmers Insurance has expressed an interest in adjusting its insurance prices to account for Tesla cars getting safer with Autopilot technology.
Tesla itself is advocating that insurance rates should fall for its cars. In fact, Tesla is selling car insurance with its vehicles in Australia and Hong Kong as part of an overall vision to one day include insurance in the final price of all its cars.
Get the latest Tesla stock price here.

RPT-Goldman, Nomura heeded warnings before Venezuela bond deal

RPT-Goldman, Nomura heeded warnings before Venezuela bond deal

(Repeats for wider distribution)
By Corina Pons, Marianna Parraga and Olivia Oran
CARACAS/NEW YORK, June 5 (Reuters) - In early May, Goldman Sachs turned down a request from Caracas to convert $5 billion in sovereign bonds into marketable securities partly because it would mean dealing directly with a Venezuelan state bank, according to people familiar with the talks.
The complexity of the operation was the primary concern for Goldman, but the Wall Street bank also weighed reputational risks after opposition politicians called it to warn about the potential damage of being seen as aiding President Nicolas Maduro's administration, according to an advisor to opposition lawmakers and a person familiar with the discussions. Both declined to be named because the talks were private.
The warnings were part of a campaign by opposition lawmakers, economists and lawyers to cut off Wall Street financing for Maduro. Aware that his cash-strapped administration was seeking funds, they dispatched letters in recent months to the heads of 13 major banks, including Goldman Sachs boss Lloyd Blankfein, flagging the risks of financing a government which has been criticized internationally for human rights abuses and economic mismanagement.(Graphic: http://tmsnrt.rs/2pPJdRb)
Last week, though, Goldman Sachs confirmed its asset management arm had bought $2.8 billion of another bond issued by Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA at a steep discount. Japanese investment bank Nomura bought $100 million worth, also at a cut rate.
The deals drew condemnation from Julio Borges, the head of Venezuela's opposition-run Congress, and some U.S. lawmakers and raised concerns within the U.S. administration.
In a statement, Goldman defended the purchase, saying its asset-management arm acquired the bonds "on the secondary market from a broker and did not interact with the Venezuelan government".
Because of that, the bond purchase did not receive top-level scrutiny. The bank's group-wide standards committee, which usually reviews controversial transactions, did not look at it, a person familiar with the matter said.
The omission highlights the challenge Goldman still faces in managing controversial deals despite overhauling its governance structure in the wake of the financial crisis.
Executives at Goldman’s headquarters in New York were taken aback by the backlash, a second person said. The asset management division may review how it handles trades that involve high risk jurisdictions, the first person said.
Nomura has declined to comment about the purchase but a person familiar with the deal said its relatively small size and the use of a broker convinced the bank it was acceptable.
Nomura, like Goldman, had been approached by Caracas before.
In April, the Japanese investment bank ended discussions about a repurchase deal where it would take up $3 billion in the PDVSA bonds in return for a $1 billion cash infusion for Venezuela's central bank, which held the bonds.
A delegation from Nomura had arrived in Caracas just after Venezuela's Supreme Court effectively stripped the Congress of its powers, and decided to halt the talks. Concerns about the size of the exposure, the volatility of the situation and legal and reputational risks all played into that decision, according to a financial executive with direct knowledge of the matter.
Nomura was among the 13 banks targeted by opposition campaign led by Borges and carried out by some 20 lawmakers, lawyers and economists. Reuters has not been able to confirm if Blankfein, Nomura CEO Koji Nagai and the other bank chiefs read the letters that were sent. Goldman Sachs and Nomura have declined to comment about the lobbying efforts and their previous dealings with the Venezuelan government. The other banks which were sent letters either declined to comment or did not respond to requests for comment.
A Venezuelan government representative also declined to comment for this story.
OPTICS
When the PDVSA bond came up for sale again, this time via intermediaries, Nomura's trading division paid about a third of the face value of its slice, according to two people familiar with the transaction. Goldman’s asset management arm paid an estimated 31 cents on the dollar for its batch.
The division, which manages $1.37 trillion on behalf of pension funds, mutual funds and other big investors, has not experienced the same sort of public censure as the bank's trading and banking divisions, where risk managers scrutinize transactions for reputational impact.
The deal for the PDVSA bond had obvious financial appeal and the use of intermediaries meant the buyers were not dealing directly with the Venezuelan government.
Similarly, at Nomura the $100 million purchase was viewed as a market transaction, a person familiar with the deal said, of the kind that the Venezuelan opposition has distinguished from those providing cash to the government.
In this case, however, critics argued the overall scale of the transaction showed financial middlemen just served as a cover.
"Using the broker is a way for them to get around the optics of directly dealing with the government," said former Goldman managing director Nomi Prins, now a senior fellow at public policy think tank Demos.
While the bond sale was a setback in the opposition campaign, Maduro last month appeared to acknowledge it had an impact.
"I'm looking around the world for money, for business, for investors and Julio Borges is sending letters, letters and letters so that investors will not come to Venezuela, so that Venezuela will not pay its foreign debt," he said in a televised broadcast.
(Additional reporting by Davide Scigliuzzo and Jen Ablan in New York and Emi Emoto in Tokyo; Writing by Brian Ellsworth and Carmel Crimmins; Editing by Tomasz Janowski)
Read the original article on Reuters. Copyright 2017. Follow Reuters on Twitter.

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