Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Brexit hasn't made prices in Britain increase as much as expected

Brexit hasn't made prices in Britain increase as much as expected

deflationREUTERS/Tyrone Siu
Inflation in the UK is not growing as quickly as expected, and remained unchanged from last month, according to official figures released on Tuesday.
The Office for National Statistics says the consumer price index — the key measure of inflation in Britain — was up 0.6% on a year-on-year basis in August, marginally lower than the 0.7% consensus forecast of economists and flat from 0.6% in July. As a result, inflation remains at highs not seen since late 2014.
Core inflation figures, which strip out volatile goods like oil and food, came in at 1.3%, a flat from the previous month's reading, and below the 1.4% forecast by economists.
Here is how UK inflation looks in comparison to the trend:
uk inflation sept 13Office for National Statistics
Prior to the last few months, inflation stayed between -0.1% and 0.1% for 10 months due to a collapse in oil prices and a supermarket price war that led to slashed prices. But prices have started to pick up and are expected to keep rising following the Bank of England's decision to cut interest rates in the aftermath of the UK's vote to leave the European Union, and the fall in the value of the pound.
Expectations are that inflation will jump sharply in the coming months as the effects of the weaker pound — which has fallen roughly 14% since the Brexit vote, and sits at a 31-year low against the dollar — trickle into the real economy, pushing up the price of goods. As a result, the Bank of England now expects inflation to surpass its 2% target by next year.
Prior to the release of the data, Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics noted in his daily UK Economic Monitor that he expects CPI to continue rising, and reach 3% by the tail end of 2017, well above the Bank of England's 2% target:
"Meanwhile, CPI inflation still looks set to rise to a peak of about 3% a year from now. Sterling still is weaker than the day following the referendum, despite its rally over the last month. Oil prices have remained between $45 and $50, so energy prices will soon start to boost inflation. And so far, the labour market has softened, rather than capitulated, so wage growth—and services inflation—will remain firm. We therefore still think both markets and the MPC are underestimating the impending revival of inflation."

China's 'data dump' beats across the board

China's 'data dump' beats across the board

China letterbox 5Getty Images
Chinese industrial output, retail sales and fixed asset investment figures — known in markets as China’s “data dump” — have beaten across the board in August.
At face value, today’s numbers, along with those released in recent weeks, suggest that economic conditions improved noticeably last month. 
In year-on-year terms industrial output grew by 6.3% according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, above the 6% level seen in July and forecasts for an increase to 6.1%.
It marked the fastest increase in output since March, a period where authorities acted to bolster flagging economic growth by ramping up state-spending on infrastructure and housing development. 
Retail sales also outperformed, expanding by 10.6% from a year earlier. Markets had been expecting growth of 10.3%, up from 10.2% reported previously.
It matched the growth pace recorded two months earlier, and was the fastest pace of growth since December 2015.
As seen in the chart below, the recent trend in retail sales and industrial output appears to be flat, rather than lower. This is in stark contrast to that seen before the start of last year.
China Industrial OutputChina National Bureau of Statistics
Completing the trio of data beats, fixed asset investment rose by 8.1% between January to August compared to the same period a year earlier, unchanged from the level seen in July and forecasts for a deceleration to 8.0%.
Despite the beat, it continues to grow at the slowest level seen in 16 years, thanks in part to the high base effect established when authorities ramped up investment to counteract the effects of the global financial crisis in late 2008. 
Not only that, the composition of growth continues to be driven by what many would deem to be the “old” Chinese economic model — state-backed infrastructure and property investment. 
According to the NBS, private sector investment grew by just 2.1% over the same period, unchanged from the level seen in July. In comparison, state-backed investment grew by 21.4%.
Property investment grew by 5.4% between January to August compared to a year earlier, slightly higher than the 5.3% pace seen in the first seven months of the year. 
In August alone, property investment rose 6.2% year-on-year, according to calculations from Reuters, substantially above the 1.4% increase seen in July. 
China manufacturing PMIEmployees work along a production line at a factory of Dongfeng Nissan Passenger Vehicle Co. in Zhengzhou, Henan province, China, November 12, 2015. Picture taken November 12, 2015. REUTERS/Stringer
While there are always questions raised over the validity of economic data released by the government, particularly when strong, the rebound in today’s numbers fits with that seen in recent data releases.
The official manufacturing PMI report — a measure on activity levels in the nation’s industrial sector from one month to the next — came in 50.4 in August, marking the fastest improvement in conditions since October 2014.
Trade data for August also impressed, particularly for imports which grew in year-on-year terms for the first time in 22 months, fitting with strengthening levels of demand along with higher commodity prices.
Though consumer price inflation eased over the same period, largely as a result of falling pork prices, producer prices logged their smallest year-on-year decline since April 2012.
Fitting with the trend seen in recent years, financial markets have barely stirred following the release of the data. 
The Australian and New Zealand dollars — more sensitive than most to the performance of the Chinese economy — remain down for the session while Australia’s ASX 200 has actually trimmed its earlier session gains, currently trading up 0.31%.
Read the original article on Business Insider Australia. Copyright 2016.

Monday, September 12, 2016

Hillary Clinton's doctor releases statement after health scare at 9/11 memorial

Hillary Clinton's doctor releases statement after health scare at 9/11 memorial

GettyImages 602402628Justin Sullivan/Getty Images
Hillary Clinton's doctor released a statement Sunday after the Democratic presidential nominee stumbled into a van and struggled to walk as she abruptly left a memorial marking the 15th anniversary of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks.
"Secretary Clinton has been experiencing a cough related to allergies," Dr. Lisa R. Bardack said. "On Friday, during follow-up evaluation of her prolonged cough, she was diagnosed with pneumonia. She was put on antibiotics and advised to rest and modify her schedule."
Bardack added: "While at this morning's event, she became overheated and dehydrated. I have just examined her and she is now rehydrated and recovering nicely."
Video captured at the memorial event in New York City showed Clinton having great difficulty walking as she entered a van.
Nick Merrill, a campaign spokesman for Clinton, said in a statement at the time that the former secretary of state felt "overheated." It was about 80 degrees in Manhattan.
Fox News first reported that Clinton suffered a "medical episode" and possibly fainted. A witness told the cable-news outlet that Clinton lost a shoe during the incident.
Clinton was taken from the 9/11 memorial to the New York apartment of her daughter, Chelsea. She then traveled to her Chappaqua residence.
Conservative news outlets for weeks have promoted stories suggesting Clinton is secretly battling health issues. The Clinton campaign has strongly denied such claims and dismissed them as conspiracy theories.

Elon Musk just announced big improvements coming to Autopilot

Elon Musk just announced big improvements coming to Autopilot

Tesla autopilotTesla
Tesla cars are getting a giant upgrade. 
On Sunday, CEO Elon Musk revealed details about Tesla 8.0, its biggest software update yet. The update, which is slated to roll out worldwide in a week or two, will include significant updates to Tesla's semiautonomous-driving system called Autopilot. 
The update will make Tesla vehicles three times safer than cars without Autopilot, Musk said during a press call Sunday. 
"I think it will make the Model S and Model X by far the safest cars on the road. I don’t think there would be a car that is even within a multiple of the S and the X," Musk said. 
Musk said Tesla has improved the accuracy of Autopilot by making more use of the radar sensor on Tesla vehicles. Until now, the radar sensor has been a supplementary sensor, but now it will play a greater role in determining whether an object is a danger. The camera and imaging-processing system that currently powers the semiautonomous system will still be used, but the data collected by the radar will carry more weight when deciding how the car should react when in Autopilot. 
Musk said that he believes that the change could have prevented the fatal accident that occurred in May, when 40-year-old Joshua Brown crashed into a semitruck while driving down the highway using Autopilot. 
As part of the software update, Tesla's Autopilot will also be able to automatically take off-ramp exits and will have improved Autosteering. 
Because Tesla cars are connected to the cloud, the company can push out over-the-air software updates to give its cars new features. The electric-car maker rolled out its last big update, Tesla 7.1, in January. 

Oil is still sliding

Oil is still sliding

slide fallIlya Naymushin/Reuters
TOKYO (Reuters) - Oil prices extended declines on Monday amid projections that U.S. data is set to show a big rebound in crude inventories to offset an unexpected slump due to the impact of a tropical storm.
London Brent crude for November delivery was down 49 cents, or 1.0 percent, at $47.52 a barrel by 2246 GMT (6.46 p.m. ET) on Sunday after settling down 4 percent on Friday.
NYMEX crude for October delivery was down 60 cents, or 1.3 percent, at $45.28 a barrel, after closing down 3.7 percent on Friday.
Oil's decline over the past two days erased gains of more than 4 percent on Thursday, which were triggered after U.S. government data showed the biggest weekly drop in stockpiles since January 1999. However, traders said imports fell as ships delayed offloading cargoes due to Tropical Storm Hermine. [EIA/S]
Algeria's energy minister said there is a consensus among OPEC and non-OPEC members about the need to stabilize the oil market to support prices, state news agency APS reported on Saturday.
OPEC Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo told APS that OPEC was not seeking a definite price range for oil but rather "sustainable stability" for the market.
Moves towards clinching a global deal on stabilizing crude output come five months after talks for such a deal failed when Saudi Arabia insisted Iran join the pact.
Tehran says it supports any measures to stabilize the market, but has stopped short of indicating whether it would join a global deal before its production reaches 4 million barrels per day, the level at which it says it was pumping before the imposition of Western sanctions in 2012.
Forces loyal to eastern Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar took control of key oil ports in Ras Lanuf, Es Sider and Brega on Sunday, a spokesman for the forces said.
But an official from the force that previously controlled the ports, the Petrol Facilities Guard, said there was still fighting at Ras Lanuf.
U.S. drillers added oil rigs for a 10th week in the past 11, according to the closely followed Baker Hughes rig count report on Friday. It was the longest streak without rig cuts since 2011.
Money managers cut their net long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to Sept. 6 for the second consecutive week, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said on Friday.
Read the original article on Reuters. Copyright 2016. Follow Reuters on Twitter.

The EU opened an unprecedented ethics investigation into Barroso taking a job at Goldman Sachs

The EU opened an unprecedented ethics investigation into Barroso taking a job at Goldman Sachs

barroso1Outgoing European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso addresses a news conference at the EU Commission headquarters in Brussels October 29, 2014. Reuters
BRUSSELS (Reuters) - EU chief executive Jean-Claude Juncker has launched an unprecedented ethics investigation into his predecessor, Jose Manuel Barroso, questioning whether he broke EU law by taking a job at Goldman Sachs.
In a letter released on Sunday by the European Ombudsman who has been pressuring Juncker to inquire into how Barroso plans to help the U.S. investment bank deal with Brexit, European Commission President Juncker said he was formally asking the former Portuguese premier to "clarify" his role at Goldman.
An independent panel of senior former EU figures, including a judge and a member of parliament, would review the case, which the Commission has previously said did not appear to breach its code of conduct as Barroso had been retired for over 18 months.
The uproar over him joining an American institution held partly responsible by many Europeans for a financial crisis that nearly broke the euro, comes as the EU is battling in the wake of Britain's vote to leave the bloc in June to dispel public perceptions that it is a technocratic pawn of global capital.
That is likely to be a central theme of Juncker's annual State of the Union address to the European Parliament on Wednesday and a summit of EU leaders in Bratislava on Friday.
EU officials and diplomats say privately that Juncker and other leaders have been furious with Barroso for taking a post with a firm whose public reputation in Europe is so poor but have said they see little the Commission can do.
Juncker, who took over two years ago when the conservative former prime minister stepped down after a decade running the EU executive, wrote on Friday that Barroso had assured him he would "behave with integrity and discretion".
However, he acknowledged the prominent role Barroso had held -- officials say there is little precedent for a former head of the Commission taking such a high-profile role in the private sector -- and would now seek written assurances of that.
"Because it involves a former president of the Commission," Juncker wrote, the Commission's chief administration would write to Barroso "asking him to provide clarifications on his new responsibilities and the terms of reference of his contract, on which I will seek advice of the Ad Hoc Ethical Committee".

Public outcry

The request was sent to Barroso but there had as yet been no reply, a Commission spokeswoman said. Juncker, in his letter, stressed that Barroso would not be received in the Commission as a former president but as a lobbyist like any other and his dealings would have to be logged in the public register.
Barroso and Goldman Sachs did not immediately respond to requests for comment. People who know the former prime minister have told Reuters that he feels motivated to take the job after many years in public service and sees much of the criticism as coming from long-time political enemies on the left.
The Ethical Committee comprises three members, a Dutch former judge at the EU's highest court, the Court of Justice, a German Social Democrat former member of the European Parliament and an Austrian former senior official of the Commission.
EU treaty law states that former commissioners who fail to act with integrity in the taking of appointments after leaving the EU executive may be stripped of pension rights.
Goldman Sachs announced in early July its appointment of Barroso, who at 60 is a year younger than his successor Juncker, as an executive chairman of its international arm in London. It said he would advise the bank on handling Britain's separation from the EU, likely to affect many investment markets.
The Commission at the time noted that Barroso had left its employ 20 months previously, beyond the 18-month statutory limit during which the Commission must vet former colleagues' jobs.
However, Ombudsman Emily O'Reilly, an Irish former journalist with a brief to probe ethics in EU institutions, said that even beyond the 18-month limit enshrined in the Commission code of conduct, EU treaty law demanded "integrity" for life.
Juncker noted that the 18-month period during which the Commission can block its former members taking jobs -- and it has done in the past -- was extended from 12 months in 2011, when Barroso himself was the president of the EU executive.
Nonetheless, Ombudsman O'Reilly, in a letter to Juncker last week, said that Barroso had caused widespread public outcry.
Nearly 140,000 people have signed an online petition started by EU staff. They wrote in a demand for "exemplary measures":
"It is, at the worst possible moment, a disastrous symbol for the Union and a gift horse for the europhobes that a former Commission president is associated with the unbridled and unethical financial values that Goldman Sachs represents."

Read the original article on Reuters. Copyright 2016. Follow Reuters on Twitter.

Friday, September 9, 2016

Brexit is causing this British luxury brand to slash prices in Hong Kong

Brexit is causing this British luxury brand to slash prices in Hong Kong

Burberry Hong KongBurberry, Hong Kong Bobby Yip
British luxury brand Burberry has cut Hong Kong and mainland prices of its leather handbags by up to 20 per cent in a low profile move, as the pound depreciates in the aftermath of Brexit.
Prices of the brand’s most iconic leather handbags, including some new autumn offerings, were lowered by an average of 10 to 15 per cent last week, a staff member at Burberry’s Causeway Bay outlet told the Post.
The move was meant to reduce price differentials across international markets because of the recent depreciation of the pound, she added.
Another Burberry staff member from their outlet at the Mixc of Shenzhen City Crossing, a high-end mall in Shenzhen, also told the Post that bag prices were lowered last week.
For example, the price of Burberry’s Small Canter in Horseferry Check leather bag was lowered from HK$9,900 to HK$7,900. A new season offering – the Medium Banner in Leather and House Check bag – is now at HK$13,000, down from HK$14,500.
Jon Copestake, chief retail and consumer goods analyst at consultancy Economist Intelligence Unit, said Burberry’s price cut in the city was a “necessary ­correction” to reduce price ­differentials across countries – a common move by international luxury brands to fight parallel trading.
“We are not surprised by the price cuts. We believe other brands, not just British ones, will also cut prices in Hong Kong,” ­Aaron Fischer, CLSA regional head of consumer and gaming ­research, said.
Since the June referendum in which Britain voted to leave the European Union by a margin of 52 per cent to 48 per cent, the pound has tumbled 9.75 per cent against the Hong Kong dollar to HK$10. 35 as of yesterday.
Burberry, Hong KongBurberry, Hong Kong Bobby Yip/Reuters
Burberry’s move also came after Hong Kong sales declined by a year-on-year double-digit percentage from April to June this year, according to the company’s latest financial figures.
The price adjustments did not seem to boost demand, unlike in the case of Chanel in March last year. Hundreds of shoppers queued at outlets across the city after the French luxury brand adjusted down prices due to the falling Euro.
There has been no such frenzy at Burberry’s Causeway Bay store.
Burberry has kept a low profile about the move, and members did not receive any notification, unlike a round of price cuts last year, where members were informed of an 8 to 10 per cent discount on the brand’s iconic heritage trench coat and cashmere scarf.
Burberry sales staff did mention however, that regular mainland clients had asked to reserve certain bags this time round.
Popular British fashion chain Ted Baker also adopted the same approach to adjust the price gap between its domestic and overseas markets, with price tags in the city lowered by HK$100 to HK$200.
Other British fashion labels across the city, such as Alexander McQueen, Mulberry, Vivienne Westwood, have not yet taken action.
Read the original article on South China Morning Post. Copyright 2016. Follow South China Morning Post on Twitter.

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