Friday, February 12, 2016

Europe: Stocks bounce higher at end of brutal week

Europe: Stocks bounce higher at end of brutal week

[LONDON] European stocks rebounded Friday on higher oil prices, solid German economic growth and rising US retail sales, regaining some ground lost this week on fears of a global recession.
London jumped 3 per cent higher and Frankfurt and Paris gained 2 per cent, brushing off another slump in Asia, as investors welcomed news that the German economy grew by a solid 0.3 per cent in the fourth quarter.
World oil prices meanwhile climbed on fresh hopes of an OPEC output cut, one day after tanking towards 13-year lows on the stubborn crude supply glut.
Europe's main stock markets were buoyed also by bargain-hunting after another calamitous day on Thursday, when Frankfurt shed 2.9 per cent, Paris slumped 4.1 per cent and London dived 2.4 per cent.
Despite Friday's gains, European markets are still down heavily from the beginning of the year. Milan has lost nearly 23 per cent of its value, Frankfurt over 16 per cent, Paris nearly 14 per cent and London over 8 per cent.
Wall Street equities also pushed higher Friday after data showing retail sales edged 0.2 per cent higher in December and January despite falling oil prices, helping to underpin positive sentiment.
The January and December gains suggest "consumer spending may not be as weak as thought, especially given the lack of inflation," said Scott Hoyt of Moody's Analytics.
Markets were slammed this week by global economic fears centred on China, banking jitters - and questions over the impact of the European Central Bank's quantitative easing (QE) stimulus, dealers said.
"European markets ... have been hit by a whole series of negative factors this week - not only global recession fears and general solvency concerning banks, but by increasing evidence that QE by the ECB does not seem to work - or that it has not had the desired effect so far," said Markus Huber, analyst at brokerage Peregrine & Black in London.
"Some traders also point out that unlike in 2008/2009, major central banks have only limited tools and measures available to support global growth," he told AFP.
Mr Huber added that, during the global financial crisis, the world's central banks had greater scope because interest rates were far higher and liquidity was far lower.
The London stock market was meanwhile propelled higher Friday also on investor relief that British engine maker Rolls-Royce had not scrapped its shareholder dividend.
Rolls-Royce, which did however cut the payout for the first time in almost 25 years, saw its share price rocket over 14 per cent to 606 pence, topping the FTSE 100 leaderboard.
However, the global sell-off showed no sign of ending in Asia.
A near five-per cent plunge in Tokyo led another rout, bringing to an end one of the most painful weeks for global investors as fears about the world economy - and possible recession - stalked trading floors.
"The fear of a global recession is very real," said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda trading group.
"It does feel like a culmination of factors that have built up over the last seven years are finally coming together to test just how far the global economy has come and how strong the recovery truly is," he told AFP.
"This is going to be a very challenging year for the global economy and I think the risk of recession is higher now than it has been for some time." Friday's losses in Japan came after the yen, viewed as a haven investment, hit 16-month-plus highs against the dollar.
The dollar had Thursday struck 110.99 yen, which was the lowest level since October 2014.
The rise led Tokyo to say it would take "appropriate" measures, fuelling speculation officials were considering a currency market intervention.
"A strong domestic currency puts an additional burden on the heavily export orientated Japanese economy by making their companies less competitive," noted Mr Huber.
AFP

Deutsche Bank plans US$5.4 billion bond buyback to curb rout

Deutsche Bank plans US$5.4 billion bond buyback to curb rout

[BERLIN] Deutsche Bank plans to buy back about US$5.4 billion of bonds, including some it issued barely a month ago, to reverse an investor stampede away from its stock and debt.
The buyback announcement, which helped send the shares of Germany's biggest lender up 12 per cent Friday, came at the end of a disastrous week for banks. The Stoxx Europe 600 Banks Index is down 25 per cent this year, and measures of risk on banks and insurers in Europe hit the highest since at least 2013. Investors are concerned banks' bottom lines will suffer amid falling oil prices, China's economic slowdown, negative interest rates and a pullback by some sovereign-wealth funds.
In the US, JPMorgan Chase Chairman Jamie Dimon spent US$26.6 million of his own money to buy shares of his bank, a regulatory filing showed Thursday, joining a group of at least four share-purchasing bank top executives this year. Deutsche Bank is down 32 per cent this year and Credit Suisse Group shares plunged to the lowest level in a generation on Thursday.
"This is a tool Deutsche Bank can use to reduce the panic," said Roger Francis, an analyst at Mizuho International in London. "It doesn't really address the underlying concern that people have about the bank. They need earnings to pay dividends and subordinated bond coupons, and that's where the question marks are."
The move comes just days after Deutsche Bank told investors and staff that it has sufficient funds to pay coupons on its riskiest debt. Co-Chief Executive Officer John Cryan said the bank is "rock solid." Deutsche Bank is seeking to bolster confidence after credit-default swaps insuring its subordinated debt rose to the highest on record, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
The bank said in a statement on Friday that its "strong liquidity position" allows it to repurchase the senior unsecured notes without any change to its 2016 funding plan. It's offering to buy 3 billion euros (S$4.8 billion) of bonds in the single currency and US$2 billion of dollar notes.
"The bank is using market conditions to buy back these bonds at attractive prices and to cut debt," Chief Financial Officer Marcus Schenck said in a statement on the website. "By buying them back below their issuance value, the bank is making a profit. The bank is also using its financial strength to provide liquidity to bond investors in a difficult market environment."
The bank's 1.75 billion euros of 6 per cent contingent convertible notes redeemable in April 2022 rose 2 cents on the euro to 73 cents, up from a record low of 70 cents on Tuesday, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The banks' riskiest debt was downgraded by Standard & Poor's on Thursday to four per cent contingent convertible notes levels below investment grade.
The cost of insuring the bank's subordinated debt for five years fell 15 basis points on Friday to 493 basis points, after closing in London at the highest level since Bloomberg began tracking the data in 2002. The one-year contracts reached a record high of 551 basis points on Thursday, the data show.
"The market is providing them a great opportunity to buy back their debt," said Anthony Smouha, chief executive officer of Geneva-based Atlanticomnium, which manages the GAM Star Credit Opportunities. "They are still the number one German bank. There is no systemic crisis. They have deposits coming out of their ears."
The offer includes the US$1.75 billion of bonds that the German lender issued just a little more than a month ago, according to the filing. The firms that bought the biggest piece of that offering at 100 cents on the dollar are now being asked to sell them back to the bank at up to 97.3 cents, according to calculations by Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Arnold Kakuda. The securities were quoted at 95.6 cents on the dollar on Thursday.
Deutsche Bank is seeking to buy back bonds due between 2017 and 2026, according to the statement. The majority of the securities being accepted for tender mature within five years."The bonds they've selected are senior bank bonds with generally relatively short maturities," said Gregory Turnbull- Schwartz, an Edinburgh-based fixed-income manager at Kames Capital, which manages about 55 billion pounds (S$111.8 billion).
"It would be a little surprising that this would be seen as such reassurance, when the rules now require significant amounts of liquidity to be held by all European banks."
The Markit iTraxx Europe Subordinated Financial index, a measure of risk, fell 15 basis points to 299 basis points after closing in London on Thursday at an almost three-year high, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Since taking over last year, Cryan has been seeking to raise capital buffers and restore investor confidence in a bank battered by rising compliance costs and losses at its securities unit. The lender last month posted a net loss of 6.8 billion euros for 2015, its first annual shortfall since 2008.
"It's quite a smart move," Christopher Wheeler, an analyst at Atlantic Equities, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television on Friday. "What they've done is said 'look, we're going to put our money where our mouth is and we're actually going to announce the transaction which will obviously benefit earnings.' It's going to boost their capital as well as their shareholders' funds."
REUTERS

BoJ's Nakaso defends negative rates, says not meant to pinch banks

BoJ's Nakaso defends negative rates, says not meant to pinch banks

[NEW YORK] The Bank of Japan designed its new negative interest rates to avoid hurting bank profits, and the recent drop in bank stocks is "overdone," the BOJ's deputy governor said on Friday in what amounted to a defense of last month's shock policy decision.
Hiroshi Nakaso, seeking to explain the move to bankers and investors in New York, said that while a key rate could technically be lowered deeper into negative territory, "my sense is that for now I would like to watch carefully how this new policy is going to work through the economy."
The BOJ unexpectedly cut a benchmark interest rate below zero on January 29, a bold move that stunned investors and that was meant to stimulate the economy and overcome deflation amid volatile markets.
While the move initially depressed Japan's currency as desired, the yen has since rebounded sharply while global stock markets have tumbled with banks hit hardest. The MSCI International World Banks index is down 13 per cent since the close of markets on the day of the BOJ's decision.
But the three-tiered system, which limits negative rates only to marginal excess bank reserves, "is carefully designed to mitigate aggressive impact on banks' profitability while ensuring the effect of negative rates on prices in financial markets," said Mr Nakaso, who walked a stage and pointed to charts to make his point at a conference here.
"We have seen a substantial drop in bank shares in the ... past couple of days, but I think this is a bit overdone in this regard."
The negative rates policy, though also having been adopted in Europe, has been criticised for amplifying volatility that has gripped markets all year. Mr Nakaso said he and colleagues were talking with bankers in Japan "to seek their understanding that overcoming deflation is in everyone's interest." Asking rhetorically how far the BOJ might go with negative rates, he said: "I don't have the answer yet."
He noted that the BOJ can always charge negative interest on bank notes "if there is a leakage from reserves to cash," which would undermine the policy, he said. "It is therefore technically possible to go farther down in the negative," Mr Nakaso said. "But my sense is that for now I would like to watch carefully how this new policy is going to work through the economy."
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