Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Rupiah rallies most since October after economic growth picks up

Rupiah rallies most since October after economic growth picks up

[SINGAPORE] The rupiah rose the most since October on speculation Indonesia will lure more inflows as the economy picks up and after the Bank of Japan moved to negative interest rates.
Bank Indonesia sees room for monetary easing and growth can be higher in 2016 after expansion in the fourth quarter beat analysts' expectations, Juda Agung, executive director of monetary policy, told reporters in Jakarta on Tuesday.
The BOJ's adoption of negative rates on Jan 29 will buoy demand for local assets, he said. The authority cut its benchmark rate for the first time in 11 months in January and will meet again on Feb 17-18.
The rupiah rose 1.2 per cent to 13,445 a dollar as of 11.43am in Jakarta, according to prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg, and has rallied 2.4 per cent in a four-day streak. That was the strongest level since Nov 4 and the biggest daily advance since Oct 9.
"People have been bearish Indonesia for some time and now they're seeing it's performing much better on a fundamental basis," said Wai Ho Leong, a senior regional economist at Barclays Plc in Singapore. The reopening of some Asian markets after the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays will see increased buying of Indonesian assets, he said.
Overseas investors pumped 9.5 trillion rupiah (S$985.1 million) into Indonesian local-currency sovereign debt last week, Finance Ministry data show, after the BOJ's adoption of negative rates on Jan 29. That took inflows this year to 29.3 trillion rupiah.
The economy expanded 5.04 per cent in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, compared with a revised 4.74 per cent in the previous three months and the 4.8 per cent median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.
The yield on the nation's 10-year government bonds declined two basis points to 8.02 per cent, Inter Dealer Market Association prices show. The two-year yield fell six basis points to 7.81 per cent.
BLOOMBERG

Indonesia in 'big push' to open up economy to more investment

Indonesia in 'big push' to open up economy to more investment

[JAKARTA] Indonesia is intent on opening up previously closed sectors of the economy to foreign capital, the trade minister said, as the government prepares to announce changes to its investment guidelines.
Greater foreign investment and increased government spending on infrastructure will compensate for weaker export performance and drive economic growth in Indonesia to as fast as 5.2 per cent this year, Minister Tom Lembong said in an interview on Tuesday.
President Joko Widodo is holding a cabinet meeting later on Wednesday to discuss revisions to the so-called negative investment list, a document that determines which sectors of Southeast Asia's largest economy are open to foreign capital. The government plans to announce the final changes after the meeting, said Azhar Lubis, deputy chairman for investment supervision at the Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board.
"We are opening up and rationalizing our investment regime," said Lembong, a Harvard graduate who joined the government as part of a cabinet reshuffle in August. "It's a big push. We had fallen behind from where we should be."
Since taking office in October 2014, the president, known as Jokowi, has sought to increase infrastructure spending and implement bureaucratic reforms to rejuvenate an economy hurt by sliding commodity prices. After a shaky start characterised by policy u-turns and protectionist policies, there are signs growth is starting to rebound. The rupiah outperformed its emerging-market peers in the four months through January, while economic growth beat analyst estimates in the final three months of 2015 to reach 5.04 per cent.
Mr Lembong said he expected expansion this year to be between 5.1 and 5.2 per cent, up from 4.79 per cent in 2015, which was the slowest annual rate of expansion since 2009. Foreign direct investment rose 7 per cent in the final three months of 2015 from the previous quarter. Investment was up 3 per cent the full year.
"We are seeing financial stabilisation now," Mr Lembong said during the interview at his office in central Jakarta. "Our infrastructure programme is now snowballing. That is the engine of growth."
BLOOMBERG

China likely saw US$113b in capital outflows in January: IIF

China likely saw US$113b in capital outflows in January: IIF

[WASHINGTON] China's central bank likely spent about US$90 billion worth of reserves in currency interventions in January, leading to net capital outflows of about US$113 billion from China during the month, the Institute for International Finance (IIF) said on Tuesday.
The IIF said the estimates, which include unrecorded flows captured by net errors and omissions, are based on official reserve data and mark a 22nd straight month of outflows from China.
The Washington, DC based global finance industry group said that China's official reserve intervention in January was smaller than the US$102 billion estimated for December.
But it cautioned that the estimates were only approximations and could change significantly once full balance-of-payments data is released, typically three months after the end of each quarter.
The IIF, incorporating recently released partial State Administration of Foreign Exchange (Safe) data for the fourth quarter, said it now estimates that China's 2015 net capital outflows totaled US$463 billion, or US$637 billion including errors and omissions.
The slowing of China's growth and manufacturing sector during the past year has hit investor sentiment towards the world's second-largest economy, causing volatility in its capital flows, putting pressure on its yuan currency and forcing the central bank to intervene in currency markets.
The IIF said a reversal of non-resident capital inflows prompted largely by repayment of dollar debt by Chinese companies also had combined with increased capital outflows from residents.
Last week however, Safe said that China's foreign exchange reserves remained abundant and risks from cross-border capital movements were under control.
It said China's foreign exchange reserves fell US$512.66 billion in 2015 - the biggest annual drop on record - to US$3.33 trillion, while China had short-term foreign debt of US$1.02 trillion at the end of September.
The Safe said that of the 2015 drop in foreign exchange reserves, US$342.3 billion was due to trade and investment transactions while US$170.3 billion was caused by currency and asset price changes.
REUTERS

Billionaire Trump, US Senator Sanders win in New Hampshire: networks

Billionaire Trump, US Senator Sanders win in New Hampshire: networks

[MANCHESTER, New Hampshire] Billionaire businessman Donald Trump won New Hampshire's Republican presidential nominating contest on Tuesday, while US Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont won the Democratic primary over Hillary Clinton, US television networks said after early results.
Mr Trump's win solidifies his front-runner status in the race to be the party's White House nominee for the Nov 8 election. The reality television star's untraditional campaign has been marked by calls to deport illegal immigrants and temporarily ban Muslims from entering the United States.
Mr Sanders, who describes himself as a democratic socialist, had 56 per cent of the vote in early returns, ahead of former Secretary of State Clinton, the perceived front-runner nationally, who had 42 per cent, according to CNN.
In a statement, Mrs Clinton's campaign acknowledged it had lost in New Hampshire. Campaign manager Robby Mook said in a memo they had "split" the first two nominating contests - Iowa was last week - and said the Democratic nomination would "very likely" be decided in March.
The Clinton campaign said the support of black and Hispanic voters would be key to victory. The next primary races are in Nevada and South Carolina later this month.
"It will be very difficult, if not impossible, for a Democrat to win the nomination without strong levels of support among African-American and Hispanic voters," Mr Mook wrote in a memo titled "March Matters."
"The nomination will very likely be won in March, not February, and we believe that Hillary Clinton is well positioned to build a strong - potentially insurmountable - delegate lead next month," he said.
Some 25 minutes after polls closed at 8pm EST (0100 GMT), Mr Trump was in first place with 34 per cent of the early vote. Ohio Governor John Kasich, who staked the viability of his campaign on the New Hampshire outcome, was in second place with 16 per cent, CNN said.
A logjam of Republican candidates were in a dead heat for third place. Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, the son and brother of former presidents, had 12 per cent; US Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, who won the Iowa caucus last week, had 11 per cent, and U.S. Senator Marco Rubio of Florida had 10 per cent.
REUTERS

China, Taiwan: Markets closed for Lunar New Year holiday

China, Taiwan: Markets closed for Lunar New Year holiday

TAIWAN and China's stock and bond markets, foreign exchange and commodity futures markets will be closed Feb 8 to Feb 12 for the Lunar New Year holiday.
Markets will resume trade on Feb 15.

Indonesia's wealth managers bank on tax amnesty for take-off

Indonesia's wealth managers bank on tax amnesty for take-off

[JAKARTA] Competition is so tough among Indonesia's wealth managers that one offers clients helicopter rides to soar above Jakarta's notorious traffic jams, others provide golf clinics, airport limousines and exclusive money-managing seminars.
Now, business may be about to look up for the industry helped by President Joko Widodo's tax amnesty plan that could encourage rich Indonesians to declare assets previously concealed from the authorities, either at home or abroad.
The scheme will offer the well-heeled incentives to bring money back to the country but it won't require taxpayers to repatriate their assets, which means a flood of funds from abroad is unlikely.
Still, bankers are hoping it could be a timely shot in the arm for the industry that, still in its infancy and dwarfed by neighbouring Singapore, was heading into even rougher waters as the economy slowed and the assets of its tycoons shrank with it.
"The tax amnesty will have a positive impact on the wealth-management business," said Anggoro Eko Cahyo, director of consumer banking at Bank Negara Indonesia, whose "Emerald Priority" members are wafted by helicopter across the capital when they are in an emergency. "We will proactively approach individuals, be they our existing customers or prospective customers," Mr Anggoro said.
Indonesia joins India, among other countries, that have rolled out tax amnesty schemes to recover revenue and plug deficits.
With tax receipts tumbling, from slumping oil and commodities prices, and the budget deficit starting to test a legal limit of 3 per cent of gross domestic product, Mr Joko is offering generous incentives to tax evaders to step forward.
Those who come forward during the programme will also escape criminal prosecution.
People who disclose their wealth in the first month of the amnesty will be taxed at just 1 per cent, said Luhut Pandjaitan, Mr Joko's chief legal minister.
Previously, the government said that taxpayers disclosing their wealth in the first three months would be taxed at 2 per cent, rising to 4 per cent the following three months and up to 6 per cent by the end of 2016, when the programme ends.
That compares with the top tax rate for individual income of 30 per cent and the corporate rate of 25 per cent.
Parliament will begin debating the draft law in coming weeks.
BUDGET BOOST
Local bankers such as Citi Indonesia's head of wealth management Ivan Jaya accept that they will have to raise their game to take full advantage of the amnesty. "There must be investment instruments like those provided now by offshore financial institutions," he said.
Indonesia's wealth management industry is small, with only about US$20 billion in assets under management compared with US$1.8 trillion in Singapore, the favoured destination for Indonesians moving money offshore, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit.
Some US$200 billion in Indonesian money is thought to be stashed in Singapore, and wealth managers there are anxious Indonesia's amnesty will lead to an outflow of assets.
Taxation revenue comprises about 10 per cent of the Indonesian economy, compared with 13-15 per cent in Southeast Asia's four other main economies.
Analysts say significant revenue has been lost through tax evasion since the overthrow of late strongman Suharto in 1998.
The finance ministry estimates amnesty will boost tax receipts by 60 trillion rupiah (S$6.14 billion) this year. Citi's Jaya said that assuming a tax rate of 1-6 per cent, it implies officials expect up to 6,000 trillion rupiah to be declared. "Our money abroad is not just a little, but a lot, an extraordinarily large amount," Finance Minister Bambang Brodjonegoro told reporters last week.
Even if little wealth is repatriated, the government hopes to expand its base of taxpayers. Only 10 million Indonesians now file an annual tax return, out of a population of 250 million.
But not all wealth managers are convinced about a windfall. "It's not yet clear that banks will get a share of this,"said Jahja Setiaatmadja, the president director of Bank Central Asia. "This tax amnesty does not require funds to be repatriated, it's just that it gives an incentive ... and the money may have to go to government bonds."
REUTERS

US dollar dips ahead of Yellen testimony to Congress

US dollar dips ahead of Yellen testimony to Congress

[NEW YORK] The US dollar broadly weakened Tuesday as investors awaited Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's testimony to Congress this week for signals on future interest rate increases.
Ms Yellen, who is scheduled to give the central bank's twice-yearly accounting on monetary policy to lawmakers on Wednesday and Thursday, will be closely watched to see if she deviates from the Fed's plan for four rate hikes this year.
Markets have been pricing in one or two increases, for the second half of 2016. Few analysts expect the Fed will raise rates at the next policy meeting in mid-March.
The Fed lifted the benchmark rate by a quarter-point in December, after keeping it pegged near zero for seven years.
"Sliding world stocks and prospects for global growth have many staking bets that Fed chair testimony... might acknowledge new threats to US growth and play down prospects for higher US interest rates," said Joe Manimbo, currency market analyst at Western Union Business Solutions.
"Uncertainty over how global weakness would impact the US economy has caused the dollar to lose some of its safe-harbour sheen." The dollar dropped against the euro, to US$1.1293 per euro around 2200 GMT, from US$1.1193 at the same time on Monday. The greenback fell 0.6 per cent against the yen at 115.14 yen.
Ms Yellen's testimony comes as concerns about the US economy and Fed policy have contributed to the stock market's sharp decline so far this year and the dollar's recent selloff.
"There's a lot weighing on Yellen's shoulders tomorrow because now more than ever, investors are looking for her guidance," said Kathy Lien of BK Asset Management.
"A number of central bank officials have suggested that rates could remain steady next month and the big question is whether the Fed chair shares these views."
AFP

Europe: Shares hit lowest since Sept 2013 as banks extend falls

Europe: Shares hit lowest since Sept 2013 as banks extend falls

[LONDON] European shares fell for a seventh consecutive session on Tuesday to touch their lowest level in more than two years as worries about the impact on banks of sustained low interest rates kept sentiment fragile.
The pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 lost 1.6 per cent to close at 1,219.82 points after falling by as much as 2.6 per cent to its lowest since September 2013.
The European banking index fell 4 per cent, reversing earlier gains after Monday's 5.6 per cent slump. The index was set for its seventh consecutive week of declines, the worst weekly losing streak since 1998, as investors fret over the threat to banks' profitability and capital strength from compressed interest rate margins.
"The mood is clearly negative. What is needed is a strong and clear message from the ECB," said Activtrades Chief Market Analyst Carlo Alberto De Casa.
Deutsche Bank shares fell 4.3 per cent. Late on Monday the German bank said it had "sufficient" reserves to make payments due this year on AT1 securities. Its shares had slumped 9.5 per cent on Monday on concerns about its ability to maintain bond payments.
Elsewhere in the sector, UniCredit fell 7.9 per cent as better than expected results failed to reassure investors. Credit Suisse, UBS and Barclays were all down by between 4.6 per cent and 8.4 per cent.
Analysts said the sector was prone to further weakness in the near term. The cost of insuring bank debt against default eased slightly from Monday's advance to its highest since late 2013.
Borrowing costs in Spain, Portugal and Italy jumped as investors demanded a fatter risk premium over safer German paper, where two-year yields hit record lows.
"The CDS (credit default swap) market is indicating a future financial stress for bond holders in the banking sector. There are concerns that the banking sector is undercapitalised in Europe and credit conditions are sub-optimal," said Lorne Baring, managing director of B Capital Wealth Management. "Combined with the global macro backdrop, with Chinese growth slowing down, there is a natural impact around the world and the banking sector is bearing the brunt. There could be a wave of defaults in the energy sector and that will damage the balance sheet of the banking sector."
Goldman Sachs said that while there were no signs of strain in terms of euro or US dollar funding in money markets for European banks, market liquidity had reduced nevertheless.
Miners, down 5.4 per cent, were the top sectoral faller. Anglo American dropped 11.2 per cent after its Kumba division posted lower profit and Antofagasta fell 9.4 per cent after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock to a "sell".
Among the few gainers, Vestas rose 4 percent after the world's biggest wind turbine maker beat earnings forecasts, while Telecom Italia rose 3.6 per cent on ubpeat expectations over the Italian phone company's new business plan due next week.
REUTERS

US: Stocks edge lower after volatile session

US: Stocks edge lower after volatile session

[NEW YORK] US stocks finished a choppy session modestly lower on Tuesday as investors grappled with weakness in overseas equity markets and another drop in oil prices.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 12.67 points (0.08 per cent) at 16,014.38.
The broad-based S&P 500 lost 1.23 (0.07 per cent) at 1,852.21, while the tech-rich Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 14.99 (0.35 per cent) to 4,268.76.
US stocks swayed between gains and losses all day after Japan's Nikkei plunged 5.4 per cent and US oil prices dived below US$28 a barrel following a downcast forecast by the International Energy Agency.
"The market is trying to find a floor," said Alan Skrainka, chief investment officer at Cornerstone Wealth Management.
"We still believe this volatility is going to continue until commodity prices settle down, and that hasn't happened yet." Mr Skrainka said investors are hopeful Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will send dovish signals in a congressional hearing on Wednesday.
But if Ms Yellen takes a hard line on further interest rate increases, "then stocks will sell off," he said.
Energy stocks were under pressure with the latest drop in oil prices. Dow member Chevron fell 3.6 per cent, EOG Resources 4.2 per cent and Halliburton 4.0 per cent.
Anadarko Petroleum slid 7.0 per cent after slashing its dividend from 27 cents per share to just five cents.
But airline stocks benefited from expectations of lower fuel costs. Delta Air Lines jumped 3.0 per cent, while American Airlines and United Airlines both climbed 1.8 per cent.
Dow member Coca-Cola rose 1.5 per cent after posting a 60.6 per cent rise in fourth-quarter profit to US$1.2 billion behind higher volumes and pricing.
Media company Viacom sank 17.8 per cent on a 10.2 per cent drop in first-quarter earnings to US$449 million in results that fell short of expectations. Chief executive Philippe Dauman said the earnings reflect an adaptation to "significant industry disruption" and that results would soon improve.
CVS Health gained 1.0 per cent as it reported fourth-quarter net income rose 13.4 per cent to US$1.5 billion.
AFP

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