Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Credit Suisse profit challenge in focus after UBS wealth slump

Credit Suisse profit challenge in focus after UBS wealth slump

[ZURICH] Credit Suisse Group AG's shareholders are seeing from rival UBS Group AG that pursuing a steadier business model may not result in stable profit.
Credit Suisse on Thursday reports its first quarterly results since an October overhaul in which Chief Executive Officer Tidjane Thiam adopted a similar model to UBS: shrinking the trading unit and increasing the focus on wealth management, particularly in Asia.
A slump in earnings at UBS's wealth- management and investment-banking divisions Tuesday sparked its biggest stock drop in more than a year and sent Credit Suisse's shares down 3.7 per cent.
Credit Suisse is set to post a net loss of 4.3 billion francs (S$6 billion) in the fourth quarter, sparking the first full-year loss since 2008, as it writes down a substantial part of the 6.3 billion francs of goodwill at its investment bank. Analysts estimate a decline in pretax profit at every one of the bank's units in the first three months under the new structure.
UBS's results included net outflows of 3.4 billion francs from clients in its wealth management unit, the bank's biggest division.
Much of those outflows came from entrepreneurs in emerging markets, the same type of clients that Credit Suisse wants to target under its new strategy.
At the Swiss universal bank, which is earmarked for an initial public offering by the end of 2017, profit may drop after a one-time gain tied to the sale of real estate in 2014. The Asia Pacific business - targeted to more than double pretax profit by 2018 - was probably hit by cooling emerging markets, led by China.
Mr Thiam, who took over from Brady Dougan in June, has yet to convince investors that his new approach will translate into higher profitability. While UBS shares have jumped about 18 per cent since that bank announced an overhaul in late 2012, Credit Suisse is down 16 per cent over the same period. Its shares have also lagged the bigger bank since Mr Thiam presented his strategy, which included raising about 6 billion francs in a share sale.
BLOOMBERG

Hong Kong property stock gloom seen deepening in options market

Hong Kong property stock gloom seen deepening in options market

[HONG KONG] As Hong Kong property prices slump with real estate stocks, investors are looking to the options market for protection.
Traders paid the most in four years in January to hedge against losses on Sun Hung Kai Properties Ltd versus the cost of bullish bets, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
A similar pattern emerged in options on Wharf Holdings Ltd. A measure of the city's property stocks is down 33 per cent in the past year, with losses accelerating in January as the Hong Kong dollar weakened and real-estate sales fell to the lowest in at least 25 years.
"Pressure on share prices in the sector will persist," said Alfred Lau, analyst at Bocom International Holdings Co. "Investors' concern is deepening on faster-than-expected Hong Kong capital outflow."
Hong Kong's home prices have dropped about 9.5 per cent from their record high in September, according to an index compiled by realtor Centaline Property Agency Ltd.
Investors are pulling money out of the city amid concern that it will be squeezed between China's economic slowdown and rising interest rates in the US, which drive up borrowing costs in Hong Kong through the currency peg.
Bocom International sees property values sinking as much as 30 per cent this year, while UBS AG says that may happen by the end of 2017. 
Short-term interest rates in Hong Kong have jumped since the end of last year, threatening to hurt housing affordability. House costs more than doubled from the end of 2008, prompting the government to impose measures to curb prices that had become out of reach for many local residents.
Implied volatility for three-month contracts with an exercise price 10 per cent below Sun Hung Kai shares, was 6.9 points more than on similar bullish contracts on Jan 20, the biggest premium since October 2011.
While the gap, used to gauge the cost of options, has dropped since then to 2.8 on Tuesday, it's still more than twice its one-year average.
Similar contracts for Wharf show the skew reached a 3 1/2- year high on Jan 21, while those for Henderson Land Development Co traded at levels last seen in October 2011.
Options on some of the smaller companies are not listed on the exchange or are thinly traded.
"Investors want to buy some put options in order to hedge the downside risk as they are expecting property stock prices to fall," said Sam Chi Yung, a strategist at Delta Asia Securities Ltd, noting the purchases are more likely for hedging than for speculation.
A sliding currency "may reflect investors are trying to sell out of the Hong Kong dollar or Hong Kong assets."
To maintain its peg with the US dollar, Hong Kong must match interest-rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate for three-month loans, which determines the cost of more than 80 per cent of new mortgages, climbed 28 basis points this year.
The Hong Kong dollar fell to an eight-year low last month, illustrating the demand to move money out of the city. The weakening yuan is also adding to pressure by eroding the purchasing power of mainland home buyers, according to some analysts.
Amid the gloom, rock-bottom valuations on most property shares has spurred some brokerages to recommend buying the stocks. Hong Kong's biggest developers and landlords trade at average 8.2 times reported earnings, compared with 16 times globally. BNP Paribas SA said in a note last month current valuations are cheap and are a good buying opportunity.
Current share prices have factored in a house-price drop of more than 20 per cent for large developers, according to Jeff Yau, an analyst at DBS Vickers Hong Kong Ltd, who says he still doesn't see any catalysts for the shares to rebound.
A Wharf spokeswoman said the underlying business is sound, declining to comment specifically on options. Henderson and Sun Hung Kai didn't respond to questions on their contracts.
Sun Hung Kai shares dropped 1.1 per cent on Tuesday, while Henderson slid 2.1 per cent and Wharf was unchanged. Cheung Kong Property Holdings Ltd., which spun off in June, retreated 0.4 per cent.
Centaline estimates that transactions reached 3,000 units last month, the lowest since it started tracking data in January 1991. The previous low was 3,786 units in November 2008, according to a Jan 31 release.
For Pauline Dan, the head of Greater China equities at Pictet Asset Management Ltd, the worst for home-owners might be still to come. While shares have priced in negative news, "the physical market definitely would have more downside because the adjustment is just beginning," she says.
BLOOMBERG

China's US$7.6b Ponzi scam highlights growing online risks

China's US$7.6b Ponzi scam highlights growing online risks

[BEIJING] Once China's biggest peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platform, Ezubao collected 50 billion yuan (S$10.9 billion) in less than two years from more than 900,000 investors through savvy marketing and the promise of big returns.
But executives at Ezubao's parent company, Yucheng Group, now say it was "a complete Ponzi scheme", which used investor funds to support a lavish lifestyle, the official Xinhua News Agency reported this week.
Among gifts that Yucheng Chairman Ding Ning gave his president, Zhang Min, were a US$20 million Singapore villa, a US$1.8 million pink diamond ring, luxury limousines and watches and more than US$83 million in cash, Xinhua stated.
The alleged scam underscores the risks in China's fast growing and loosely regulated wealth management product industry, with many products peddled through online financial investment platforms and privately run exchanges.
Products promising annual returns of up to 14 per cent have drawn in investors at a time when savings rates are low and property is no longer a guaranteed get-rich-quick bet.
A report on China's stock market crash authored last year by former senior officials, including former central bank vice governor Wu Xiaoling, said Chinese retail investors are short-sighted, have a weak investment philosophy and a herd mentality.
China's P2P and the online finance industry also serve as a critical channel for the emerging small business and consumer market, which is often ignored by banks and mainstream financial institutions. iResearch predicts China's unsecured consumer finance market alone will triple in size by 2019, reaching outstanding loans of over US$1.7 trillion.
RISKY BUSINESS
By November, there were over 3,600 P2P platforms as the industry raised more than 400 billion yuan, according to the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC). More than 1,000 of those were problematic, it said.
The consequences when these schemes fail can be devastating, said Yang Dong, vice-dean at Renmin Law School and an expert on finance and securities law. "The harm is obvious. It's going to damage financial reforms, cause social unrest and destabilise the regime to some extent," he told Reuters.
Prof Yang said there needs to be more supervision at both a national and local level, with more staffing, funding and a central bank-led financial risk monitoring system capable of tracking Internet financial activity and flagging problems.
Last year, hundreds of angry investors protested on the streets in Beijing and Shanghai, saying they lost US$6 billion from the Fanya Metals Exchange, which offered an investment product promising up to 14 per cent annual return and the flexibility to deposit and withdraw money at will.
The CBRC published draft rules in December to oversee the P2P industry, banning the pooling of investor money, concealing risks of financial programmes and using fraudulent sales tactics. "Due to the lack of necessary regulation, many P2P platforms play in the area between legal and illegal, using Internet concepts to brand themselves, fraudulent advertising and illegal deposit-taking to hurt public interest," it said.
WELCOME ABOARD 'TRAIN EZUBAO'
At Ezubao, Ding collected a monthly salary of 1 million yuan, and admitted on state television to spending an estimated 1.5 billion yuan in Ezubao funds on himself.
"We fabricated projects to raise money," he said, adding Ezubao used project companies to re-circulate money back into accounts linked to his companies, Xinhua reported. Yong Lei, head of risk management at Yucheng's financial leasing company, said 95 per cent of projects on Ezubao were fake.
Ding asked dozens of his secretaries to dress only in Chanel, Gucci and other luxury branded clothing to make the company appear highly successful.
Zhang, the group president who was marketed as "the most beautiful executive in online finance", said on state broadcaster CCTV that Ding asked her to buy up everything from every Louis Vuitton and Hermès store in China, "and go overseas to buy more if that wasn't enough."
Ezubao investors contacted by Reuters attributed their willingness to hand cash to the company to high-profile commercials on state-owned TV and a high-speed train named after "Ezubao" that ran between Beijing and Shanghai. "When you got on the train, there was an announcement saying: 'Welcome aboard Train Ezubao'," said a company employee who said she lost about 100,000 yuan in the scheme.
When Ezubao's fraud was detected late last year, executives buried 80 bags of documents in a 6m hole on the outskirts of Hefei in Anhui province, where the company started, Xinhua said.
"I feel terrible," said another Ezubao investor surnamed Liu who said she invested 800,000 yuan. "I haven't dared tell my husband yet."
REUTERS

US dollar edges lower amid global growth worries

US dollar edges lower amid global growth worries

[NEW YORK] The US dollar edged lower against the euro and yen on Tuesday as another fall in oil prices stirred worries about the weak global economy.
The dollar fell to US$1.0917 per euro around 2200 GMT from US$1.0893 at the same time on Monday. The greenback slipped 0.8 per cent to 120.01 yen.
Equity markets and oil prices have tumbled for two days after strong gains on Friday following the Bank of Japan's surprise interest rate cut into negative territory kickstart the world's third-largest economy and fend off deflation.
"The fact that sentiment has soured so quickly after another one of the world's largest central banks adopted negative interest rates and pledged to do more to ease conditions if needed, highlights the extent to which investors are worried about the global economic outlook," said Omer Esiner of Commonwealth Foreign Exchange.
AFP

Texas reports case of sexually transmitted Zika virus: official

Texas reports case of sexually transmitted Zika virus: official

[MIAMI] A county in Texas on Tuesday reported a case of Zika virus being sexually transmitted, raising new concerns about the spread of a mosquito-borne virus linked to birth defects.
Reached for comment by AFP, a spokesman for Dallas County Health and Human Services declined to identify the gender of the traveler or where he or she visited.
The county "has received confirmation from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) of the first Zika virus case acquired through sexual transmission in Dallas County in 2016," said a statement.
"The patient was infected with the virus after having sexual contact with an ill individual who returned from a country where Zika virus is present."
A spokesman for the CDC said the federal agency did not investigate the mode of transmission, but did confirm the infection.
Last month the CDC said it was aware of one reported case of sexual transmission of Zika and one case of the virus being present in a man's semen after it disappeared from his blood.
AFP

EU chief unveils plans to avoid 'Brexit'

EU chief unveils plans to avoid 'Brexit'

[BRUSSELS] EU president Donald Tusk unveiled proposals to keep Britain in the 28-nation club on Tuesday, firing the starting gun for two weeks of tense negotiations to reach a deal at a summit later this month.
British Prime Minister David Cameron said Mr Tusk's plans showed "real progress" and made it likely that he would campaign to stay in the European Union in a referendum expected in June.
The proposals include a four-year "emergency brake" on welfare payments for EU migrant workers, protection for countries that do not use the euro currency and a "red card" system giving national parliaments more power.
But eurosceptics in Britain dismissed the proposals as worthless, and they could be a hard sell ahead of the February 18-19 summit for some EU states who fear that Mr Cameron is winning too many concessions.
"To be, or not to be together, that is the question which must be answered not only by the British people in a referendum, but also by the other 27 members of the EU in the next two weeks," Mr Tusk said in a letter to EU leaders.
Mr Tusk later warned that a deal was not certain in the pre-summit negotiations, which will begin in earnest on Friday when EU diplomats meet in Brussels.
"It's still a lot of work ahead of us. The stakes are really high," Mr Tusk told the BBC. "Nothing is easy in this case."
US President Barack Obama waded into the debate on Tuesday, calling Mr Cameron to reiterate his support for "a strong United Kingdom in a strong European Union", according to the White House.
Washington has long backed Britain playing a central role in the world's largest economic bloc.
London's bid to transform its EU membership has added to the turmoil as the bloc struggles with its worst migration crisis since World War II and the fallout from the eurozone debt saga.
As part of a charm offensive, Mr Cameron will visit Poland and Denmark on Friday then Germany next week for talks with Chancellor Angela Merkel.
The British premier said Mr Tusk's proposal showed that he had "secured some very important changes".
"If I could get these terms for British membership I sure would opt in for being a member of the EU," Mr Cameron said in a speech in southwest England.
Initial European reaction was muted but Czech Europe minister Tomas Prouza said the welfare brake plan was "acceptable" - a positive sign given recent criticism by central European countries that the scheme would discriminate against the hundreds of thousands of their workers in Britain.
But British eurosceptics were unconvinced, with London Mayor Boris Johnson, from Mr Cameron's own Conservative Party, saying he had "doubts" about the effectiveness of the "red card" proposal.
UK Independence Party head Nigel Farage dismissed Mr Tusk's proposals as "pathetic" and "hardly worth the wait".
Tusk's most controversial proposal is an "emergency brake" that would allow any EU state to limit the welfare payments that migrants from other European countries can claim for up to four years after their arrival.
States would have to prove an "exceptional situation" in which their welfare system and public services are overwhelmed - but instead of Mr Cameron's demand for an outright ban it said such limitations should be gradually reduced over the four years.
To pull the brake, a country would also have to get approval from the European Commission, the powerful executive arm of the EU, and then from other EU leaders in a majority vote.
Despite concerns in France, Mr Tusk's plan also includes a "mechanism" by which the nine countries that are not in the euro can raise concerns about decisions by the eurozone.
But he stressed that the mechanism could not delay or veto urgent decisions by the 19 euro countries.
Britain will be further exempted from the EU's stated goal of "ever closer union" because of its "special status" in the bloc's treaties - including staying out of the euro and the passport-free Schengen area.
The "red card" system would allow a group representing 55 per cent of the EU's national parliaments to stop or change draft EU laws.
Although Mr Cameron has only set a deadline of end-2017 to hold the referendum, sources have said he is keen to push a vote through by June.
That would avoid the fallout from any new flare-up in Europe's migration crisis this summer and British eurosceptic elements becoming even more unruly.
Opinion polls are split on whether Britons would back leaving the EU in their first vote on the subject since 1975.
AFP

White House race wide open as upstarts rattle Trump, Clinton

White House race wide open as upstarts rattle Trump, Clinton

[DES MOINES] The US presidential race looked suddenly wide open Tuesday after frontrunners Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton suffered chastening evenings in Iowa, the first step on the long road to the White House.
It was a particularly humbling experience for Mr Trump, who cut a forlorn figure after Republican arch-rival Ted Cruz streaked to victory in the Iowa caucuses, staking his claim as the new standard bearer for the conservative camp going on to New Hampshire.
And if Mrs Clinton was in any doubt before Iowa, the former secretary of state now knows she has a real fight on her hands in the form of Bernie Sanders, as final results released Tuesday showed her only seeing off the self-proclaimed democratic socialist by the thinnest of margins.
The months-long presidential contest now kicks into high gear, with Democratic and Republican debates this week building up to next Tuesday's New Hampshire primaries.
Mr Trump, the billionaire real estate mogul and reality television star whose populist campaign turned conventional politics - and wisdom - on its head, also now faces a second genuine threat: from Marco Rubio, who chalked up more than 23 per cent to Trump's 24.3 per cent in the Iowa caucuses.
Surging past expectations, Mr Cruz claimed victory with 27.7 per cent of the vote, having invested heavily in campaigning in the deeply conservative state to outmaneuver his many rivals.
While Mr Cruz can hope to build on his momentum in New Hampshire, Mr Sanders returns to what can safely be described as his home turf, with the potential to land a hammer blow against Mrs Clinton and her dreams to be America's first female commander-in-chief.
The former first lady hit the ground running at a rally in the state Tuesday, claiming victory even before the release of final Iowa results giving her 49.8 per cent, against 49.6 per cent for the Vermont senator, her sole remaining rival for the Democratic nomination.
"I am so thrilled that I'm coming to New Hampshire after winning Iowa!" she said to cheers from the crowd. "I can tell you - I've won and I've lost there. It's a lot better to win!"
But Mrs Clinton also acknowledged, later on CNN, that the 74-year-old Sanders has struck a chord with young Americans on the left with his calls for "political revolution." "I'm going to have some work to do to reach out to young voters - maybe first-time voters who have to make a tough decision as they evaluate who should be our president, our commander-in-chief. I intend to do that," Mrs Clinton said.
Party chair Andy McGuire called the final results "the closest in Iowa Democratic caucus history," with several precincts so close they were decided by a coin toss.
Mr Sanders' camp has not conceded defeat, considering it a tie, and his campaign manager told CNN he hoped to see a detailed breakdown of results in what is a famously complex caucusing process.
"We're not contesting the election," Jeff Weaver told CNN. However, he said, "we would love to see some tally sheets." "There's new technology and room for human error." Mr Sanders himself was claiming a victory of another sort.
"We started our campaign 40, 50 points behind," he told CNN. "I am proud of bringing a whole lot of young people into the political process that would revitalize American democracy."
The upbeat tone was in stark contrast with Mr Trump, who struggled to mask his disappointment in the immediate aftermath in Iowa.
The 69-year-old showman said he was "honoured" to finish second after being given no chance to win Iowa at the outset - before he began dominating the air waves, thanks partly to a series of controversial remarks on Muslims and immigration.
But a second hiccup - if his poll lead in New Hampshire fails to translate into votes - could spell political disaster for the man who built his personal brand on the concept of winning, and has always said being second was tantamount to being nowhere.
David Redlawsk, a professor at Rutgers University who was in Iowa for the caucuses, told AFP Mr Trump was "the big loser" on the night.
Mr Cruz, meanwhile, rolls into New Hampshire with renewed vigour, having proven with his Iowa win that his arch-conservatism may yet propel him to an Election Day victory on November 8.
"Tonight is a victory for courageous conservatives across Iowa and all across this great nation," said Mr Cruz, after Iowans flocked to churches, school gymnasiums and libraries to cast the first votes in the boisterous US presidential nominating process.
The 44-year-old Rubio also proved he is a force to be reckoned with after muscling in to challenge Cruz for second place in Iowa - turning the Republican primary into a real three-horse race.
As the race moves now to New Hampshire, it leaves behind two more candidates - Republican Mick Huckabee and Democrat Martin O'Malley - who announced they were giving up on the White House after being mauled in Iowa.
AFP

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