Tuesday, February 2, 2016

Japan's savers won't play ball as BOJ turns negative

Japan's savers won't play ball as BOJ turns negative

[TOKYO] The Bank of Japan (BOJ) hopes that cutting interest rates below zero will boost spending and investment, but fear, inertia and years of paltry returns mean the nation's army of savers is unlikely to march to the central bank's tune.
After the BOJ made its move on Friday to charge banks for holding their reserves from Feb 16, some retail banks are already cutting their deposit rates, and the rest are expected to follow suit.
Bank of Yokohama Ltd, one of Japan's biggest regional lenders, cut its one-year rate to 0.02 per cent from 0.025 per cent, and Resona Bank, a unit of fourth-largest lender Resona Holdings, halved its rate to 0.025 per cent on five-year deposits.
Central bank governor Haruhiko Kuroda aims to break the deflationary mindset that has blighted Japan for decades and get the economy moving, but his compatriots are compulsive savers.
More than half of the US$14 trillion in Japanese households'financial assets are either bank deposits or cash, compared with only 13.7 per cent for the United States and 34.4 per cent for the euro zone.
Ryoji Yoshizawa, director at Standard & Poor's Ratings Japan, doesn't think the cuts will change that. "Interest rates are already very low, so further cuts are not likely to have much impact on depositors."
Tokyo pensioner Kozo Nishimura remembers getting 8 per cent on his savings at Kyowa Bank, which later became Resona, 320 times what the bank pays now on five-year deposits, but he has long since become used to getting scornfully low returns. "A change of 0.01 points is such a microscopic thing," said Mr Nishimura, 70, who used to own an electronics shop. "For now, I'll just wait and see."
Noriko Ainoya, 71, who runs a shop selling handbags in Sugamo, a Tokyo shopping district popular with the older generation, is equally dismissive of the "dimes and pennies" she gets on her savings.
But the alternatives are too risky. "I'm scared to keep money under the mattress," she said. "But I don't know about investing, either, since there's no knowing how stocks will move."
Ultimately, Japanese investors value security, said a sales official at a major brokerage firm. "Even if interest rates on time deposits fall from 0.02 per cent to 0.01 per cent, depositors are not losing money. Many people are likely to keep deposits even if interest rates go down to zero."
Banks are unlikely, however, to follow Mr Kuroda into negative territory. It would be too unpopular to charge savers, especially the elderly, for holding their money, finance professionals say. "There have been attempts in the past by banks to introduce charges on deposits, but they failed due to the backlash from retail and corporate clients," said Yoshinobu Yamada, banking analyst at Deutsche Securities in a note to clients.
Some are already at or near the tipping point. "There's no point in depositing money," said Kiyoshi Ishii, 72, the worried owner of a shop selling rice crackers in Sugamo."There's no other way than to keep money under the mattress," he said.
That could be music to the ears of companies making something a little more secure than the mattress. "At this point, the outlook for future sales is unclear,"said Akira Kondo, who works at Eiko Kogyo Co, the top maker of safes in Japan. But "there is a chance the sale of safes would rise following TV reports", he added.
REUTERS

China survey shows consumers pessimistic for first time

China survey shows consumers pessimistic for first time

[BANGKOK] China's eternally optimistic consumers have turned pessimistic, joining bankers and entrepreneurs.
An index of "future income confidence" based on a quarterly survey of consumers by the central bank fell below the mid-point of 50 for the first time ever in December.
A separate sentiment gauge for entrepreneurs by the the People's Bank of China fell into pessimistic territory for the first time since 2009, and now is at a record low, while a survey of bankers shows they've been getting more pessimistic for five straight quarters.
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More facing problems refinancing homes due to TDSR

More facing problems refinancing homes due to TDSR

No numbers available, but one mortgage adviser says 8% of its clients looking to refinance are unable to

Singapore
HOME owners looking to refinance their properties are finding it increasingly difficult to do so against the backdrop of falling property prices, stringent definitions of what constitutes income and the tedious paperwork involved.
Conservative property valuations also mean that only smaller loan amounts can be refinanced. With rising interest rates, more home owners are opting to switch from floating to fixed rates, or re-price to lower rates before the Sibor (Singapore interbank offered rate) spikes to a painful level.
According to independent mortgage adviser FindaHomeLoan, of the 300 cases it advised in the last six months, about 25, or 8 per cent, of home owners could not refinance because they did not meet either the total debt servicing ratio (TDSR) or the bank's credit assessment criteria, or both.
Banks were coy about revealing numbers, but said the percentage of customers who are unable to refinance is very small.
Phang Lah Hwa, head of consumer secured lending at OCBC Bank, says customers opt to do an affordability and credit assessment, after which they may not proceed with the refinancing application. "Among those who applied and submitted the required documents, the majority of them will qualify for refinancing," she says.
Tok Geok Peng, executive director of secured lending at DBS Bank, says: "We hardly see customers who do not qualify for refinancing."
She adds that refinancing may not work for everyone, as there could be additional fees payable, a new loan package may require commitment for a few years, or the loan tenure may be shortened, resulting in higher monthly repayment instalments.
But FindaHomeLoan founder Sean Lim says that refinancing has become a headache for many since the TDSR framework kicked in, even if the government has given a three-year grace period for mandatory compliance until June 30, 2017.
With the stringent TDSR guidelines, most borrowers are faced with a shortened tenure, which often results in higher monthly mortgage requirements. Those who had funded their property with the help of a guarantor in the past are also now required to remove the guarantor as a mortgagor. Such borrowers would then be subjected to TDSR assessment without the guarantor's income.
There are other issues: loans with tenures based on the younger applicant's age become subjected to income-weighted age computation, which results in a shorter tenure and higher monthly instalments. The inclusion of other purchases such as commercial properties also affects loan limits, especially the stricter 30 per cent mortgage servicing ratio which applies to owners of HDB flats and executive condominiums.
Meanwhile, not every bank has adopted in entirety the list of financial assets suggested by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS).
Some banks do not recognise stocks deposited with the Central Depository, others do not accept stocks held with foreign exchanges, yet others do not accept cash held jointly with a third-party non-mortgagor.
This can further limit loan amounts as borrowers sometimes pledge their assets such as stocks to augment their income if what they earn is not enough to meet the TDSR threshold of 60 per cent.
Pay slips issued in the form of hand-written salary vouchers are sometimes frowned upon by banks and may result in rejection of or a 30-per-cent haircut on the income, FindaHomeLoan's Mr Lim says.
Some borrowers may also have retired with no income except for the rentals they collect every month - which have to undergo a 30 per cent haircut, bringing them past the 60 per cent limit, even if their outstanding loans have been paid down steadily over the years.
Tedious document submissions aside, all these stricter income criteria add up to make refinancing a pain for mortgagors, he says.
The tighter loan criteria come on top of another problem: falling valuations, which further affect borrowers' ability to refinance.
Banks do not lend beyond a certain loan-to-value of usually 80 per cent or lower, lest they should be unable to recover the amount in case of foreclosure.
OCBC's Ms Phang says: "We reference the current market value in granting a refinancing loan. Hence, if the property value has fallen, the loan amount approved will be lower."
DBS's Ms Tok says refinancing is possible even if the property valuation has fallen, especially if the loan-to-valuation ratio is within the required limit. "Borrowers are now more prudent and we see an increasing number of customers who do not borrow up to their maximum loan-to-valuation ratio."
While some observers fear that these refinancing troubles may lead to higher default risks closer to the 2017 deadline, banks say it is far-fetched to presume so, as the link is tenuous.
Non-performing loans arise when borrowers cannot repay, which is mostly due to a change in their financial situations, or broader economic conditions like weak GDP growth or employment rates, not so much because they cannot refinance or re-price to lower interest rates.
MAS also does not seem worried that mortgagors' refinancing difficulties will result in anything too serious, as the percentage of borrowers that currently breach TDSR limits is not high.
Responding to BT's queries, it says: "A small proportion, less than 10 per cent, of all existing borrowers have a TDSR of above 60 per cent. This number is expected to decline as households pay down their loans, but it will take time."
Asked what alternatives those who cannot refinance have, Darren Goh, executive director of MortgageWise.sg, a mortgage distributor, says: "To be honest with you, they don't have many options."
He says that if the debt servicing burden spirals into something unsustainable as interest rates increase, the only option such mortgagors have is to sell off the property - even if at a loss.
"To reduce TDSR ratio, either cut the monthly debt at the top, or increase the income at the bottom. Since most have problems reducing the numerator, the only viable way known to us is through asset-based lending where they have to show or pledge funds or liquid assets to boost the income at the denominator.
"That normally works for borderline cases just over 60 per cent.  However, for those with TDSR way past 100 per cent, it is of little use. Because if they have so much funds to show in the first place, they can already pay down part of the loan or won't be needing to refinance so urgently. So in a way, they are stuck."
Mr Goh has seen cases where mortgagors' TDSR is at an overwhelming ratio of 200 per cent, even 400 per cent for some.
"These tend to be investors with a few properties, or they are self-employed directors of their own companies and so are also guarantors for their company loans. This affects their own personal TDSR when they try to refinance their own residential loans," he says.
"By releasing one property, it might help to lower the TDSR to allow them to refinance the other loans that they have.
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First legal case involving Singapore's probe into troubled 1MDB

First legal case involving Singapore's probe into troubled 1MDB

IN the first legal case involving a massive probe into Malaysia's 1Malaysia Development Berhad, a criminal motion will be heard on Friday at the Singapore High Court involving a senior private banker with BSI Singapore.
The Business Times understands that Yak Yew Chee, who was the relationship manager (RM) of Malaysian tycoon Low Taek Jho or better known as Jho Low and a few entities linked to 1MDB, is applying for the release of some S$10 million in several of his bank accounts that were frozen in September last year as a result of Singapore authorities' probe into 1MDB.
It is understood that Mr Yak is seeking to lift the freeze on his bank accounts to pay for taxes, legal fees and basic expenses. Sources say the executive was also the RM for entities linked to the troubled state-backed firm namely 1MDB Global Investments Ltd, Aabar Investment PJS Limited and SRC International Sdn Bhd. SRC was once wholly owned by 1MDB, but is now under the Ministry of Finance.
According to the Supreme Court schedule for the week, a criminal motion will be heard on Friday morning. The respondent in the hearing is the public prosecutor. Mr Yak, who was understood was on long leave last year, will be represented by senior counsel Roderick Martin of Martin & Partner.
On Tuesday, the Monetary Authority of Singapore and the Commercial Affairs Department jointly said that they have been "actively investigating" possible money laundering and other offences carried out in Singapore involving 1MDB.
In relation to the probe which began in the middle of last year, the CAD and the MAS said that they have seized a "large" number of bank accounts and were continuing to seek information from several financial institutions while interviewing various individuals. The agencies also said that they were cooperating closely with relevant authorities, including in Malaysia, Switzerland and the United States.

3-month SOR tumbles as USD takes a breather

3-month SOR tumbles as USD takes a breather

A KEY interest rate, the three-month SOR or swap offer rate continues to fall steeply as the US dollar (USD) takes a breather.
The three-month SOR quoted at 1.25544 per cent on Feb 1, down 0.06670 from Jan 30, has plunged some 30 per cent from 1.76235 per cent on Jan 13. The other benchmark interest rate, the three-month Sibor or Singapore interbank offered rate has only eased slightly to 1.24270 per cent from the recent high of 1.2540 per cent on Jan 19. Commercial loans typically are pegged to SOR, while home loans use Sibor.
"SOR has fallen because of the decline in the USD/SGD since mid-Jan," said Saktiandi Supaat, head of FX research at Maybank Singapore.
The SGD (Singapore dollar) has recovered to S$1.4238 from $S1.4408 on Jan 15 as traders speculate that the US Federal Reserve might turn dovish in the light of wild swings in oil prices and stock markets in the past few weeks.
Fed chair Janet Yellen in a statement last week hinted that the Fed would not be as aggressive in hiking rates as originally planned. The Fed raised rates for the first time in nearly a decade on Dec 16, and subsequently the expectations was for four hikes this year. Since then some are betting that the Fed may raise interest rates only two times this year.
"The SOR tends to be volatile but, over the longer term, Sibors and SORs should trade fairly close together. We are finally seeing a convergence of the Sibor and the SOR as FX pressures on the SGD ease," said Eugene Leow, DBS Bank economist.
"With USD strength wavering of late as the market speculates on a Fed pause, Asian currencies including the SGD have benefited. This comes despite volatility in global equity markets," said Mr Leow.

More central bank rate cuts coming before any hike

More central bank rate cuts coming before any hike 

[FRANKFURT] Global interest rates are likely to go even lower before they rise as financial market volatility and the spectre of deflation raise fresh doubts about central banks' ability to fulfil their mandates, policymakers and economists said.
With markets in turmoil and talk of further Chinese currency devaluation intensifying, expectations for US rate hikes this year have all but evaporated and central banks from Europe to Canada and Australia are preparing the ground for more easing.
Faltering emerging market growth is exacerbating concerns, raising the risk that policy easing in too many places at once will cancel itself out and force national banks into a vicious cycle of competitive currency devaluation.
"The biggest risk for the world economy at this point is an aggressive policy of devaluation in China," said the head of a major central bank in Europe, who asked not to be named. "With uncertainty and volatility already high, it would have a big consequence for all economies."
The People's Bank of China has been fighting to keep the yuan stable since Jan 6, when its second sharp depreciation in six months sparked fears of more devaluation as growth in the world's second biggest economy, already at a 25-year low, slows.
Chinese stocks have lost over a fifth of their value since the start of the year, while a renewed slide in oil prices, a major indicator of economic activity, took Brent crude to its lowest since 2003. The CBOE Volatility Index, the US equity market's "fear gauge" has risen sharply.
The European Central Bank responded by raising the prospect of another rate cut in March while the Bank of England has rowed back from suggestions it could start hiking rates soon.
Last week, the Bank of Japan unexpectedly lowered its key rate into negative territory, abandoning its policy of holding rates at zero to avoid potential damage to the financial system. "The BOJ provides the strongest signal to date that the previously assumed zero lower bound on rates is no longer valid," Deutsche Bank strategist George Saravelos said. "Markets should now be pricing that global rates across global fixed income can sustainably and substantially trade below zero in the current and future easing cycles." Money markets now see the ECB's deposit rate sinking to -0.5 percent this year from -0.3 percent while the BOJ said its policies provided room for more easing if needed.
The Reserve Bank of Australia, the Bank of Canada and Sweden's Riksbank have also highlighted risks, keeping the possibility of policy easing on the agenda.
FED The U.S. Federal Reserve has been the big exception, lifting interest rates in December for the first time since 2006, but has already acknowledged headwinds that may delay further hikes.
"It is difficult to judge the likely implications of this volatility," Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said on Monday. "If these developments lead to a persistent tightening of financial conditions, they could signal a slowing in the global economy that could affect growth and inflation in the United States." San Francisco Fed President John Williams meanwhile said the next rate rise may need to be delayed somewhat.
Traders now see only one increase if any this year, probably in November, not the three or four discussed in December. Odds have shifted quickly, so any more market volatility could erase rate hike expectations for 2016.
The problem for central banks is that their tools in a zero-rate environment are relatively untested, only moderately effective and, because they do not coordinate policy, prone to cancelling each other out.
Returns from quantitative easing diminish with each round while deeply negative rates raise financial stability risks as banking profitability falters and asset bubbles form.
Currency depreciation, a key policy transmission channel for most central banks, also has limits as too many countries trying to devalue leads to a currency war.
"The economic bang for the depreciating buck, or yen or euro is relatively small," Citi economists Steve Englander and Josh O'Byrne said in a note to clients. "A consequence is that if the exchange rate is the tool of monetary policy, it doesn't work nearly as well as advertised, you have to go much further than you think, for much longer than you think and you are probably in much deeper trouble than you are willing to admit."
Neither does policy easing solve the underlying problem of high debt, which is holding back growth and inflation.
One source with knowledge of the ECB's thinking acknowledged that its room for manoeuvre is limited: "We have a lot of tools still but all are problematic one way or another so they are not the most effective." Central banks are nevertheless compelled to act by their unique mandates, which mostly set targets for inflation.
ECB President Mario Draghi has stressed that the eurozone's central bank focuses on its mandate, a message echoed by BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda who said last week his bank would "do whatever it takes" to achieve its goal.
REUTERS

China cuts downpayments on some home purchases

China cuts downpayments on some home purchases

[SHANGHAI] China will cut the minimum downpayment for some home purchases by five per centage points, the central bank said Tuesday, as it attempts to kick-start a sluggish housing market that is both cause and effect of a broader growth slowdown.
The People's Bank of China (PBoC) said on its website the minimum deposit for first-time home buyers would fall from 25 per cent to 20 per cent.
The move aimed to "further support reasonable housing consumption and promote the stable and healthy development of the property market", it said.
Analysts say a slowdown in real estate, a key source of revenue for local governments in China, has been a drag on the overall economy.
The world's second-largest economy grew 6.9 per cent in 2015, its slowest pace in 25 years.
"We continue to see GDP (gross domestic product) growth grind lower as on-going destocking in the property sector and its knock on effect on industrial and mining activities overwhelm additional policy support," Wang Tao, head of China economic research at UBS, said in a report last week.
The downpayment cut does not apply to cities which have purchase restrictions in place, the PBoC said, such as Shanghai and Beijing.
The minimum downpayment for purchases of second homes is set at 30 per cent, the central bank said, down from 40 per cent.
China's new home prices increased in January for the sixth straight month, a survey showed Monday, positive news for the key sector following a series of stimulus measures aimed at boosting lending.
The average price of a new home in China's 100 major cities rose 0.42 per cent month-on-month in January to 11,026 yuan (US$1,675) per square metre, the China Index Academy (CIA) said, a slight easing from December's 0.74 per cent increase.
AFP

Germany aims to boost housing construction with tax incentives

Germany aims to boost housing construction with tax incentives

[BERLIN] Chancellor Angela Merkel's cabinet will provide tax incentives to investors who build new flats in urban areas, in a drive to tackle a drastic shortage of affordable housing aggravated by a record influx of refugees, officials said on Tuesday.
The government plan is expected to give Germany's booming construction sector an additional push, with builing companies such as Patrizia Immobilien and Hochtief among the beneficiaries.
More than a million migrants arrived in Germany last year, most fleeing war and poverty in Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq. With many sleeping in makeshift accommodation, there are growing concerns about how to house them permanently.
Merkel's cabinet is expected on Wednesday to approve the tax incentive plan, which was prepared by Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble and Construction Minister Barbara Hendricks, government officials told Reuters.
The plan lets investors reduce their tax bills by deducting nearly a third of their construction costs over three years as long as they build new flats in areas where local authorities say the housing shortage is most acute.
To avoid supporting the construction of luxury homes, the tax incentive will be limited to flats with construction costs below 3,000 euros (US$3,273.90) per square metre. Private investors can make tax claims for no more than 2,000 euros per square metre.
The incentive, applicable for flats with a building permit granted between 2016 and 2018, will cost the state more than four billion euros in the coming years and is expected to lead to the construction of up to 100,000 additional flats.
Even before the refugee numbers started to increase sharply last summer, there was an estimated lack of 800,000 affordable flats in urban areas.
This year, nearly 290,000 new flats are due to be built, but experts say this is not enough to meet demand from a growing urban population and the rising number of refugees, meaning that more than 400,000 new flats are needed annually.
In addition to the tax incentives, Hendricks has therefore called for the government to double its funding for public housing to two billions euros per year.
REUTERS

Europe: Stocks follow Asia lower as oil retreats; yen advances

Europe: Stocks follow Asia lower as oil retreats; yen advances

[LONDON] European stocks followed a slide in Asia as oil extended this week's slump. Malaysia's ringgit weakened, while the yen gained.
A gauge of stocks in Europe slid after material and energy companies led Asia's benchmark equity index lower and US oil dropped as much as 2.6 per cent. Malaysia's ringgit led a retreat in high-yielding currencies. Standard & Poor's 500 Index futures slipped, while Treasuries advanced. Senator Ted Cruz won the Iowa Republican caucuses in an upset over billionaire Donald Trump, while Democrat Hillary Clinton was clinging to the narrowest edge over Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont.
Oil has erased last week's rally as speculation US stockpiles are continuing to expand reinforces concern over the global glut. The link between equity markets and crude had eased briefly as Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said the impact on the U.S. of recent market turbulence could factor into decision-making. The comments came in the wake of signals from central banks in Europe and Japan that they are ready to do what is needed to spur growth and after factory data underscored anxiety over China's economy.
"It's still a volatile market," said Rafael Palma Gil, a Manila-based trader at Rizal Commercial Banking Corp., which oversees about US$1.8 billion in assets. "While central banks have become relatively more accommodating, this stance doesn't remove the concern of a global economic slowdown, with the weakness in China." BP Plc reported a 91 per cent decline in fourth-quarter earnings after average crude oil prices dropped to the lowest in more than a decade. UBS Group AG said net income rose 11 per cent in the fourth quarter boosted by a tax gain that offset a decline in wealth-management and investment-banking profit.
The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was down 0.3 per cent at 8:01 a.m. London time. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 0.7 per cent with groups of mining stocks and oil and gas producers sliding at least 2 per cent. S&P 500 Index futures dropped 0.4 per cent after the underlying gauge ended little changed on Monday in the U.S.
In Japan - where shares climbed almost 5 per cent over the past two days after the Bank of Japan surprised markets by introducing negative rates - the Topix index fell 0.7 per cent. The Kospi index in Seoul declined 1 per cent.
Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 1 per cent, while in Wellington, the S&P/NZX 50 Index advanced 0.1 per cent. The Shanghai Composite Index jumped 2.3 per cent as the central bank injected cash into the financial system before markets close for holidays next week.
West Texas Intermediate oil lost as much as 82 cents in New York to $30.80 a barrel after slumping 6 per cent Monday, erasing last week's gain. US inventoriesprobably rose by 3.75 million barrels through Jan. 29, according to a Bloomberg survey before an Energy Information Administration report Wednesday.
Gold slipped 0.2 per cent while platinum and palladium both fell 0.8 per cent. The Bloomberg Commodity Index lost 0.1 per cent, sliding a second day.
Malaysia's ringgit dropped 1.1 per cent against the US dollar. Bank accounts related to possible money laundering associated with state-investment company 1Malaysia Development Bhd. were seized by authorities in Singapore and the Swiss Attorney General announced it's pursuing an investigation into alleged diversion of funds.
The Australian dollar fell 0.5 per cent after the central bank decision. The Korean won lost 0.6 per cent and the Japanese yen gained a second day, climbing 0.4 per cent.
Yields on US 10-year Treasuries lost two basis points, or 0.02 percentage points, to 1.93 per cent.
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