Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Indonesia's central bank resists new challenge to independence

Indonesia's central bank resists new challenge to independence

[JAKARTA] Indonesia's central bank is resisting calls from lawmakers for an audit of its foreign-exchange transactions, a proposal that could crimp its ability to intervene in the market to stabilize the often-fragile rupiah.
Unhappy about the rupiah's pace of weakening against the dollar in 2015, some members of parliament's finance commission want the country's Supreme Audit Agency to vet Bank Indonesia's forex activity.
The central bank's chief is pushing back, arguing the additional scrutiny might spook already-shaky markets.
"An investigative audit of BI is not necessary," Governor Agus Martowardojo, who spent two days this week defending his policies in closed-door meetings with the commission, told reporters.
"They (international investors) might perceive there to be a problem when there is not." Misbakhun, a commission member from the opposition Golkar party, maintains the forex trading should be scrutinised. "Who can say they are proven best-practice policies?" he said. "BI says 'stability' but what does it mean when the rupiah fell so much?" Martowardojo, a former finance minister who has won plaudits for steering Indonesia through recent market ructions, has invited parliamentarians to visit the central bank's dealing rooms to learn how market intervention works - an offer that has not been taken up yet.
It isn't certain the commission will vote to order in the state body that already audits BI's balance-sheet every year.
Even if the special audit proposal is derailed, the effort shows there may be increasing political pressure on BI, which by law is independent when it comes to conducting monetary policy.
Vice President Jusuf Kalla has called repeatedly for the central bank to lower interest rates to lift the economy, which the government estimates grew by 4.8 per cent in 2015, the slowest for six years.
Like all other emerging-market currencies, the rupiah has come under pressure as US interest rates start to rise after years and China has moved its yuan currency lower.
In 2015, the rupiah was Asia's second-worst performing currency, falling by 10 per cent against the dollar. At the lowest point in September, the rupiah was nearly 14,800 to the dollar, its weakest in 17 years.
Between March and November, the central bank spent more than US$15 billion of its foreign reserves defending the currency. In the fourth quarter, the rupiah was the best-performing emerging Asian currency, with a 6.2 per cent jump against the dollar.
The rupiah's better performance and a tumble in Indonesia's inflation rate lead a majority of analysts by Reuters to expect the central bank to lower its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 7.25 per cent on Thursday, which would be its first cut in 11 months.
That might get the government off its back, but without blocking lawmakers from pursuing a special audit.
Brokers questioned the case for having auditors peering over the shoulders of central bank dealers, who might hesitate to make routine trades for fear of sanctions.
Andy Asmoro at Mandiri Securitas, a local brokerage, said central bank actions have been appropriate. "I think BI has done things according to the law," he said. "And BI's independence must be upheld."
REUTERS

Foreign investment plummets in junta-ruled Thailand

Foreign investment plummets in junta-ruled Thailand

[BANGKOK] Foreign investment in Thailand plummeted last year, official data showed, the latest sign that the kingdom's once-vibrant economy continues to falter under prolonged military rule.
Total investment applied for by foreign companies between January and November 2015 plunged 78 per cent from a year earlier to 93.8 billion baht (S$3.76 billion), according to figures from Thailand's state-run Board of Investment (BoI) sent to AFP late Tuesday.
The figures will do little to cheer junta leader Prayut Chan-O-Cha, who seized power in a May 2014 coup vowing to restore stability but who has struggled to kickstart the country's lacklustre economy.
After years of impressive growth, Thailand's economy is struggling, mired in high household debt, stuttering exports and low consumer confidence.
It also faces stiff competition from increasingly attractive neighbours like Vietnam, Cambodia and Myanmar.
Particularly worrying for Prime Minister Prayut is a significant drop off in investment from Japan - historically the largest investor in Thailand by far - which slumped 81 per cent.
EU investment also plunged from 86.7 billion baht in 2014 to just 2 billion baht last year. Investment from the United States was also heavily down, while Chinese investment was only down slightly.
Krystal Tan, an Asia economist with Capital Economics, said the trend was indicative of deeper fissures within the Thai economy, which was among the slowest growing in the region last year.
"The 2015 (FDI) figures are very weak, indicating foreign investor confidence in the economy remains fragile," she told AFP.
"More broadly, Thailand's economic competitiveness is on the decline," she added. "The country continues to face significant challenges on the political front that have negative repercussions for business and investor confidence." But Somprawin Manprasert, an economics professor at Chulalongkorn University, said the drop-off was down to new investment incentives, which became effective in 2015, favouring high-tech industries.
"The current flow of FDI represents 'quality' investment rather than 'quantity,'" he told AFP. "All in all, this policy should help propel Thailand to the next stage of development." Thailand has historically been a top choice for investors in Southeast Asia, offering liberal economic policies, a skilled workforce and a strategic location as the gateway to the greater Mekong region.
But analysts say years of political instability, including two military coups, have hampered the country's economic potential - often referred to locally as the "lost decade".
Earlier this month the World Bank forecast that Thailand's GDP growth rate would slip from 2.5 per cent in 2015 to just 2 per cent this year, by far the gloomiest regional prediction.
Nearby Vietnam, on the other hand, reported a record number of foreign investment in 2015 and the fastest growth rate in five years at 6.68 per cent.
AFP

Malaysia's Khazanah says portfolio value rose to US$34.3b in 2015

Malaysia's Khazanah says portfolio value rose to US$34.3b in 2015

[KUALA LUMPUR] Malaysian state investor Khazanah Nasional Bhd said the value of its portfolio rose to 150.2 billion ringgit (S$49.2 billion) last year from 145.5 billion ringgit in 2014.
The sovereign wealth fund also said on Wednesday that it expected global and domestic volatility to continue this year after a challenging 2015.
Khazanah's investments include stakes in mobile services provider Axiata Group Bhd, property firm UEM Sunrise Bhd, electricity utility Tenaga Nasional Bhd and lender CIMB Group.
REUTERS

China to publish external investment data in IMF survey

China to publish external investment data in IMF survey

[SHANGHAI] China will publish data on its external portfolio investment after formally joining a global survey conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) said on Wednesday.
The Coordinated Portfolio Investment Survey (CPIS), which is conducted by the IMF, requires participating economies to provide data on their external portfolio securities investment, according to the introduction on the IMF's website.
China has also joined a survey conducted by the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) on its banks' outstanding external assets and liabilities, the SAFE said in a statement.
The SAFE said it will publish detailed data under the two surveys in the near future.
China has changed the way it calculates quarterly gross domestic product data and started publishing foreign exchange reserves on a monthly basis, in line with the IMF's Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS).
REUTERS

China Faces Longer Wait for Any EU Plan to Cut Import Duties

China Faces Longer Wait for Any EU Plan to Cut Import Duties 

[BRUSSELS] The European Union put the brakes on a possible proposal to lower import duties on Chinese goods, signaling that political resistance to the idea is growing amid opposition by EU industries ranging from steel to solar.
The European Commission said it needed to assess more thoroughly the impact on EU manufacturers of any plan to recognize China as a market economy. Such a step would make it more difficult for European companies such as ArcelorMittal and Solarworld AG to win sufficiently high EU duties meant to counter alleged below-cost - or "dumped" - imports from China.
The commission, the 28-nation EU's executive arm, indicated it would wait until the second half of the year to present any proposal on the issue to the bloc's member states and the European Parliament. China, whose economic growth has slumped to the weakest since 1990, is pressing for market-economy designation from the EU by year-end on the basis of an agreement reached when the country joined the World Trade Organization in 2001.
"If there are measures to be taken related to this issue, then of course these individual measures will have to be assessed for impact," Frans Timmermans, the commission's principal vice president, told reporters on Wednesday in Brussels after he and his fellow commissioners held an initial debate on the matter. "Those are the rules." Trade Investigations Eleven months before the deadline for an EU decision, the commission is seeking more time to act on a matter for which it has had 15 years to prepare. That signals the political sensitivity in a Europe saddled with slow growth and high unemployment of making imports from China cheaper
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EU Commission says changing China's status would impact EU economy

EU Commission says changing China's status would impact EU economy

[BRUSSELS] Treating China as an economy driven by the market, not by the state, would have an impact of Europe's economic output, the European Commission said in a statement on Wednesday following a discussion among commissioners in Brussels.
"A change in the status of the Chinese economy under the EU anti-dumping rules would also change the methodology of calculating anti-dumping duties which, in turn, would have an impact on the European economy," the Commission said.
The Commission said it would consult closely with other trade partners on its decision, such as the United States, as well as European industry.
REUTERS

Europe's worsening inflation outlook spurs calls for ECB action

Europe's worsening inflation outlook spurs calls for ECB action

[LONDON] Analysts at Mizuho International Plc and Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc stepped up calls for more monetary stimulus as an indicator of the eurozone's inflation outlook derived from forwards languished near a three-month low.
The five-year, five-year forward inflation swap rate- which measures the five-year price-growth outlook five years from now - fell this week to the lowest since October. The market turmoil spreading from China since the start of this year is weighing on the measure, which strategists say is heaping pressure on the European Central Bank to act.
ECB officials led by President Mario Draghi will increase the pace of their bond-purchaseprogram at March's policy meeting, according to Peter Chatwell, head of rates strategy at Mizuho in London. RBS predicts 0.4 percentage point of cuts to the central bank's minus 0.3 per cent deposit rate, and sees the region's bonds rallying as a result.
ECB Chief Economist Peter Praet wrote in a guest commentary in the Sueddeutsche Zeitung newspaper on Tuesday that slow inflation was damping the longer-term outlook and that there'd be no change to the policy of targeting price growth of just under 2 per cent a year.
"We expect to hear further dovish overtures from key Governing Council members, such as Praet and Draghi, over the coming month," Mizuho's Chatwell wrote in a note on Wednesday. In March, "we expect the ECB to increase the pace of the public- sector purchase program. If they do not, we expect inflation expectations will fall even further." The ECB's rate cut and extension to quantitative easing at its meeting last month fell short of some investors' expectations, sending German 10-year bund yields surging from near a seven-month low.
The yield on the bund maturing in August 2025 fell two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 0.52 per cent as of 12:10 p.m. London time. The 1 per cent security rose 0.14, or 1.40 euros per 1,000-euro face amount, to 104.49.
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