Google reveals self-driving car slip-ups

Google on Tuesday said that while its self-driving cars have safely driven more than a million miles, there have been times when humans have had to take over to avoid crashing. 

PHOTO: AFP

JAN 13, 201612:35 PM

[SAN FRANCISCO] Google on Tuesday said that while its self-driving cars have safely driven more than a million miles, there have been times when humans have had to take over to avoid crashing.

System "anomalies" caused drivers to take the wheel 272 times in California test cars in the 14 months leading up to December, Google said in a report to the California Department of Motor Vehicles.

The test period saw cars travel more than 420,000 miles (676,000 kilometers) across the state.

There were an additional 69 occasions when drivers seized control from automated systems based on their own judgment calls, according to the report.

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The most common cause for intervention occurred when technology did not properly sense a real-world situation, the report indicated.

Google then plays out these situations on a simulator to reveal whether the vehicle would have hit something had the human not taken control, according to Chris Urmson, head of the Internet giant's self-driving car team.

Simulations determined that 13 of the 69 "driver-initiated disengagements" would have resulted in crashes if the car had been steering, the report indicated.

Two of the incidents involved traffic cones and three were blamed on reckless driving by someone in another vehicle.

Eight of the near-misses took place over the 53,000 miles traveled in California in 2014, while only five happened as the cars logged a hefty 370,000 miles during the 2015 part of the trial, according to Mr Urmson.

"This trend looks good," he said.

Mr Urmson cautioned, however, that the number could actually rise as Google self-driving cars are tested in trickier environments such as dangerous weather or traffic.

"On our test track, we run tests that are designed to give us extra practice with rare or wacky situations," Mr Urmson said.

Engineers also use a powerful simulator to generate scenarios and variations on circumstances.

"Thanks to all this testing, we can develop measurable confidence in our abilities in various environments," Mr Urmson said.

"This stands in contrast to the hazy variability we accept in experienced human drivers - never mind the 16-year-olds we send onto the streets to learn amidst the rest of us." Mr Urmson was not ready to declare self-driving cars safer than those controlled by humans, but believed Google was making progress toward getting them to market.

California Department of Motor Vehicles officials last month proposed self-driving car regulations that would mandate that a person be able to take the wheel if needed.

California has the potential to set precedent with its rules for self-driving cars, and the proposed regulations were seen as sure to slow down the technology's progression as it heads mainstream.

"DMV got it exactly right and is putting our safety first," said John Simpson, director of nonprofit Consumer Watchdog Privacy Project.

"How can Google propose a car with no steering wheel, brakes or driver when its own tests" show so many failures, he added.

Overall Google's self-driving vehicles have logged more than 1.3 million miles (2 million kilometers), the company said.

AFP

    
 

Amid global price rout, China crude oil imports hit record

JAN 13, 201612:40 PM

[BEIJING] China's crude oil imports hit a record 7.82 million barrels a day (bpd) in December, customs data showed, as the world's No 2 oil consumer took advantage of low crude prices to fill strategic reserves, but also increased its exports of refined fuels to an all-time high.

Crude imports for December were 33.19 million tonnes, up 21.4 per cent on the month and 9.3 per cent on the year, well above earlier estimates by Thomson Reuters Oil Research and Forecasts.

The December import figures may mean China challenges the United States to be the world's top importer of crude, although the US Energy Information Administration has yet to provide its December data. Chinese monthly imports surpassed US imports once, in April 2015.

China shipped in 335.5 million tonnes of crude oil for the year, the data showed on Wednesday. That was up 8.8 per cent, or roughly 542,600 bpd, to 6.71 million bpd - also a new record.

 

Wu Kang, Beijing-based vice chairman of FGE Asia, said the two driving factors behind growth in 2015 were new demand from small, independent "teapot" refineries who gained the right to use imported crude oil in the latter part of the year, and stockbuilding in strategic reserves and commercial storage.

Nearly 20 small refiners have been granted quotas to use imported oil or import oil directly themselves.

China seized the chance to add up to 147 million barrels to its reserves in the first eleven months of 2015, according to Reuters calculations, following a more than 50 percent slump in oil prices since mid-2014.

China said it more than doubled the size of its strategic crude oil reserves between November 2014 and the middle of last year, building inventories at a rate exceeding analyst estimates of the country's stockbuilding.

Industry experts said Chinese firms could expand purchases possibly even more this year, as new tanks become available. "2016 might be more interesting as the two driving factors are set to become more powerful as the government relaxed control both on crude imports as well as fuel exports, at a pace faster than thought," Mr Wu said.

Demand for crude oil could rise 4.9 per cent in 2016, the country's petroleum industry association said on Tuesday.

Even so, with waning economic growth, growth in demand for gasoline was moderate last autumn and appetite for diesel has fallen, putting oil demand - refinery throughput plus net imports of fuels - down 2.5 per cent in November.

Fuel exports have risen as a result, hitting a record 4.32 million tonnes in December, or 975,500 bpd, up 5.4 per cent on the year. Exports marked a record 693,300 bpd in 2015, up 21.9 per cent.

Net fuel exports were 1.48 million tonnes in December.

China has allowed independent refineries to export fuel for the first time, having granted an estimated 440,000 tonnes of quotas under the first batch release.

REUTERS

    
 

China trade volume falls 7.0% in 2015: Customs

China's total trade volume fell seven per cent year-on-year to 24.59 trillion yuan (around US$3.74 trillion) in 2015, Customs said Wednesday, as slowing growth in the world's second-largest economy and plunging commodity prices took their toll. 

PHOTO: REUTERS

JAN 13, 201610:53 AM

[BEIJING] China's total trade volume fell seven per cent year-on-year to 24.59 trillion yuan (around US$3.74 trillion) in 2015, Customs said Wednesday, as slowing growth in the world's second-largest economy and plunging commodity prices took their toll.

It was far below the government's target of six per cent growth in trade, and the fourth year in a row that external commerce had missed its goal.

China's imports slumped 13.2 per cent on the previous year to 10.45 trillion yuan, Customs said, while exports were down 1.8 per cent to 14.14 trillion yuan.

The figures put in doubt China's title as the world's biggest trader in goods. US trade figures will not be released until February, but for the first 11 months of the year US trade in goods amounted to US$3.48 trillion on a total balance of payments basis, according to figures from the US census bureau.

Nonetheless a spokesman for China's Customs said in a statement that "foreign trade of private enterprises shows vitality".

"Progress has been made in efforts to diversify trade partners," the spokesman added. The European, US and the Association of South-East Asian Nations are China's top three trading partners.

China's annual trade surplus leaped 56.7 per cent to 3.69 trillion yuan, Customs said.

December's figures offered a rare bright spot for the economy, with exports rising 2.3 per cent year-on-year to 1.43 trillion yuan.

Imports fell 4.0 per cent to 1.05 trillion yuan in the month, with the surplus jumping 24.7 per cent to 382.05 billion yuan.

AFP

    
 

Shanghai Disneyland set to open in June

Walt Disney Co's theme park in Shanghai is slated to open on June 16, the company said on Tuesday. 

PHOTO: REUTERS

JAN 13, 20167:47 AM

[SHANGHAI] Walt Disney Co's theme park in Shanghai is slated to open on June 16, the company said on Tuesday.

The US$5.5 billion resort in Shanghai's Pudong district is a joint venture between Disney and state-backed consortium Shanghai Shendi Group.

The resort will feature characters with new stories tailored for the Chinese people, with attractions such as Gardens of Imagination, Tomorrowland, Treasure Cove and Fantasyland.

As many as 10,000 people have been working on the project, which Disney said was one of the largest foreign investments in the history of China.

REUTER
S

PC shipments fall a record 10.6% in fourth quarter: IDC

Global personal computer shipments fell 10.6 per cent in the quarter ended in December compared to a year earlier, research firm IDC said on Tuesday, the largest decline since IDC started tracking PC shipments.

PHOTO: AFP

JAN 13, 20167:05 AM

[SAN FRANCISCO] Global personal computer shipments fell 10.6 per cent in the quarter ended in December compared to a year earlier, research firm IDC said on Tuesday, the largest decline since IDC started tracking PC shipments.

Longer lifecycles for PCs, along with competition from mobile phones and tablets, have continued to hobble demand, IDC said. The industry also faced a tough comparison to a year-ago period when many consumers were snapping up heavily promoted low-cost PCs, it said.

Gartner, a rival research firm, put the decline at 8.3 per cent.

Shipments totaled 71.9 million units, up slightly from the third quarter but the largest year-on-year decline in IDC's records, topping a 9.8 per cent decline in 2013.

 

Business should increase later this year as companies that had delayed replacing machines until upgrading to Windows 10, Microsoft's latest operating system, make the switch, IDC said. It also expects consumers to upgrade their own machines.

PC shipments fell in all regions, IDC said, including a 4.3 per cent decline in the United States compared to a year earlier.

Lenovo led PC makers with 21.4 percent market share worldwide, followed by HP with 19.9 per cent and Dell with 14.1 percent.

In the United States, HP held a 28.1 per cent market share, down slightly compared to a year earlier, with Dell second at 23.9 per cent, up slightly compared to the previous year.

REUTERS

    
 

China 2015 coal imports plunge 30% on demand slump

      

China's coal imports slumped 30 per cent to 204.1 million tonnes in 2015, customs data showed on Wednesday, hit by a slowdown in domestic demand and a collapse in the price of locally produced coal.

PHOTO: AFP

JAN 13, 201612:19 PM

[BEIJING] China's coal imports slumped 30 per cent to 204.1 million tonnes in 2015, customs data showed on Wednesday, hit by a slowdown in domestic demand and a collapse in the price of locally produced coal.

Imports could fall further this year, analysts said, with overall demand still declining. Coal also faces the twin headwinds of state efforts to cut pollution and a weaker Chinese currency that will further erode the cost advantages once enjoyed by foreign miners. "Going into 2016, the overall theme will still be there, with demand still weak as China steers away from high energy-intensive industrial growth and the replacement (of coal) by other energy sources continues," said Helen Lau, analyst with Argonaut Securities in Hong Kong.

She expected imports to fall another 10 per cent in 2016, While overseas suppliers could usually rely on lower production costs to undercut their Chinese counterparts during periods of high demand, their advantage has been eroded after a supply glut cut domestic coal prices. "The decline in coal import volumes has two main causes - the decline in overall demand caused by China's economic slowdown, and the fall in domestic prices which has undermined the price advantage enjoyed by imported coal," said Zhang Xiaojin, a coal analyst with China's Everbright Securities.

Chinese coal producers, which suffered widespread losses last year, are desperate to cut production in order to shore up prices. China's raw coal output is expected to fall 4.2 per cent in 2016 to 3.6 billion tonnes, down from an estimated 3.76 billion tonnes in 2015, according to the China Academy of Sciences.

Thermal coal prices at the northern port of Qinhuangdao SH-QHA-TRMCOAL lost nearly 30 per cent over the course of last year and have held at 370 yuan (US$56.25) per tonne since late November.

Ms Lau said the devaluation of the Chinese yuan could help spur exports, but they were unlikely to exceed 5 million tonnes for the whole of 2016, given weak global demand.

REUTERS

      

Obama tells US to embrace time of 'extraordinary change'

President Barack Obama on Tuesday told Americans nervous about terror and the changing economy that they should not fear the future, in a farewell State of the Union address that drew sharp contrast with Republicans. 

PHOTO: REUTERS

JAN 13, 201611:16 AM

[WASHINGTON] President Barack Obama on Tuesday told Americans nervous about terror and the changing economy that they should not fear the future, in a farewell State of the Union address that drew sharp contrast with Republicans.

In an election-year marquee event, Mr Obama hailed a period of "extraordinary change" laden with both opportunity and the risk of wider inequality.

A confident Mr Obama sought to cast himself as an optimistic foil to foes who warn the country is going in the wrong direction after his seven years in office.

While vowing to work to find a cure for cancer, accelerate the shift away from "dirty energy" and end the last remnants of the Cold War by engaging with Cuba, Mr Obama said "America has been through big changes before."

"Each time, there have been those who told us to fear the future; who claimed we could slam the brakes on change, promising to restore past glory if we just got some group or idea that was threatening America under control. And each time, we overcame those fears."

With less than three weeks until the Iowa caucuses - the first votes cast in the process to replace him, Mr Obama berated talking points used by Republican candidates, saying "anyone claiming that America's economy is in decline is peddling fiction." He also lashed out at rhetoric over the rise of the Islamic State group, which he admitted poses an "enormous danger." But he emphasized: "They do not threaten our national existence." "Over-the-top claims that this is World War III just play into their hands," he said.

"Our answer needs to be more than tough talk or calls to carpet bomb civilians. That may work as a TV sound bite, but it doesn't pass muster on the world stage." Tuesday's primetime address was perhaps Mr Obama's last big opportunity to sway a national audience and frame the 2016 election race.

Around 30 million viewers are expected to watch live, a nationwide audience that may only be matched in political terms during the Democratic nominating convention later this year.

But it risked being overshadowed by news that 10 US Navy personnel have been taken to an Iranian naval base in the Gulf.

Senior US officials said they had received assurances the crews would sail onwards come first light, but Republicans have held the crisis up as evidence that Mr Obama was naive to engage with Tehran.

In an unorthodox speech that tried to lift the country's gaze beyond the next year, and beyond his presidency, Mr Obama also tackled the country's broken politics.

"It's one of the few regrets of my presidency - that the rancor and suspicion between the parties has gotten worse instead of better," he said in a moment of personal candor.

"There's no doubt a president with the gifts of Lincoln or Roosevelt might have better bridged the divide, and I guarantee I'll keep trying to be better so long as I hold this office."

South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley is expected to say in her rebuttal of Mr Obama's address that "the president's record has often fallen far short of his soaring words." "As he enters his final year in office, many Americans are still feeling the squeeze of an economy too weak to raise income levels." She will also cite "chaotic unrest in many of our cities" and "the most dangerous terrorist threat our nation has seen since September 11th." a

AFP

    
 

China's yuan formula baffles analysts who can't predict the fix

For a rate that China's central bank says is largely determined by easy-to-track market prices, the yuan's daily fixing is proving surprisingly hard for analysts to predict. 

PHOTO: REUTERS

JAN 13, 201610:47 AM

[TAIPEI] For a rate that China's central bank says is largely determined by easy-to-track market prices, the yuan's daily fixing is proving surprisingly hard for analysts to predict.

The reference rate, which restricts moves in the onshore yuan to a maximum 2 per cent on either side, has defied forecasts in recent days. Even after the central bank's research chief on Monday took the unusual step of clarifying how the rate is set, Royal Bank of Canada said Wednesday's fixing differed from what the monetary authority's methodology suggested it would be.

The disconnect is fueling speculation that Chinese authorities have reverted to their old approach of using the reference rate to guide moves in the yuan, backtracking on pledges to make the currency more market-driven. Uncertainty over the central bank's exchange-rate policy has sparked turmoil in global markets this year, erasing more than US$5 trillion from equity values and helping send commodity prices to a 16-year low.

"The real significance of the fixing is that the PBOC can use discretion to set it at a level that it wants, and it's not completely transparent," said Zhou Hao, an economist at Commerzbank AG in Singapore. "The central bank can use it to deliver a safety card, or a bomb, or whatever else that you don't expect." While Hao had predicted that the PBOC would keep its Jan. 8 reference rate near the previous session's official onshore closing price, the fixing was actually 0.5 per cent stronger.

 

The central bank has said the rate is determined by the yuan's last closing level, moves in a basket of global currencies that it unveiled last month, and considerations of market supply and demand. It's that last factor that gives the central bank wriggle room to shift the rate away from what market pricing would dictate, according to ABN Amro NV and RBC.

"They will continue to influence the next day's fixing depending on their subjective assessment of the market demand and supply, and in terms of whether the market direction is too one-sided," said Roy Teo, a Singapore-based senior foreign- exchange strategist at ABN Amro, which Bloomberg data show had the most-accurate forecasts for the yuan over the past year.

Sue Trinh, the Hong Kong-based head of Asia foreign-exchange strategy at RBC, estimates the fixing by adjusting the previous close with movements in other currencies and making a "judgment call" on demand and supply factors.

"That element of discretion is throwing off a lot of models at the moment," Ms Trinh said.

The People's Bank of China cut the reference rate by 1.1 per cent in the first four days of last week, spurring a worldwide plunge in stocks and the steepest weekly decline in the onshore yuan since a shock devaluation in August. The fixing was then held little changed for the next four trading days.

Policy makers have been clear in the past few days about signaling that they won't tolerate excessive weakness in the yuan. Bets against the currency will fail and calls for a large depreciation are "ridiculous" as policy makers are determined to ensure stability, Han Jun, the deputy director of China's office of the central leading group for financial and economic affairs, said Monday in New York. Downward pressure on the yuan is expected to ease, Ma Jun, the chief economist at the PBOC's research bureau, said in comments posted Monday on the central bank's website.

While policy makers appeared to use intervention in the foreign-exchange markets, rather than the fixing, to support the yuan after the August devaluation, that strategy led to an erosion of the nation's foreign-exchange reserves. The currency hoard shrank by a record US$513 billion last year to US$3.33 trillion, according to the central bank.

As authorities seek to avoid a sustained reduction in reserves, they're likely to revert to using the fixing to help manage swings in the currency, said Commerzbank's Mr Zhou.

"It's less expensive to intervene in the currency market with the fixing than by selling foreign-exchange reserves," Mr Zhou said. "It's a very important administrative tool that the PBOC will not give up in the foreseeable future."

BLOOMBERG