Friday, January 8, 2016

6 countries leading the charge towards renewable energy - By Andy Shaui Liu Jan 7 2016

Decarbonizing Energy

Energy

Global Challenges

6 countries leading the charge towards renewable energy

By Andy Shaui Liu

Jan 7 2016

This article was originally published on The World Bank’s Sustainable Energy for All blog.

In 2015 the world saw great momentum for climate action, culminating in a historic agreement in December to cut carbon emissions and contain global warming. It was also a year of continued transformation for the energy sector. For the first time in history, a global sustainable development goal was adopted solely for energy, aiming for: access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all.

150629-greenest countries renewables forum chart

To turn this objective into reality while mitigating climate change impacts, more countries are upping their game and going further with solar, wind, geothermal and other sources of renewable energy. As we usher in 2016, these stories from around the world present a flavor of how they are leading the charge toward a climate-friendly future.

1: Morocco is rising to be a “solar superpower.” On the edge of the Sahara desert, the Middle East’s top energy-importing country is building one of the world’s largest concentrated solar power plants. When fully operational, the Noor-Ouarzazate power complex will produce enough energy for more than one million Moroccans and reduce the country’s dependence on fossil fuels by 2.5 million tons of oil.

2: In Bangladesh, the number of solar-powered homes is surging, making it theworld’s fastest expansion of solar energy. About 3.5 million homes—or 18 million Bangladeshis— now have electricity thanks to solar home systems. This means that besides reducing carbon emissions, these systems will help children at home, make it safer for women to walk at night, assist families to receive remittances more easily, and help more people find jobs.

3: China is turning 800 primary and middle schools in Beijing into “sunshine schools.” Once the project is completed, the rooftops of these schools will be covered with 100 megawatts of solar panels to power classrooms for teachers and students, making way for bluer skies and healthier air for local residents and more awareness about the environment in young hearts and minds. This will also help bolster China’s efforts to scale up renewable energy and reach its ambitious climate targets set at COP21.

4: Mexico’s efforts to promote more efficient household lighting have gone nationwide. The country hasachieved an energy efficiency milestone by distributing almost 23 million energy-saving light bulbs for free. More than 5.5 million Mexican families now use energy-saving lamps. This helps these families save up to 18 percent on their electricity bill, and prevents an estimated 1.4 million tons of CO2 emissions each year.

5: Tanzania holds immense potential in solar and wind power, according to anenergy mapping study taking place in 12 countries. The study finds that the country has solar resources equivalent to Spain’s and its potential for wind power exceeds that of the U.S. state of California. What does that mean for those who lack electricity access in Tanzania? One potential success story is the hundreds of rural water points that will soon be powered by solar energy, making it more affordable for farming communities to operate and maintain rural water systems.

6: Turkey has achieved a substantial growth of renewable energy in recent years. Since 2001, the country has commissioned 16,000 MW private sector hydro, wind, geothermal and other renewable sources. Today, more private investment continues to pour into Turkey to propel its power sector modernization. Supported by the Clean Technology Fund, private sector renewable energy and energy efficiency projects financed by EBRD, IFC and the World Bank are helping avoid an estimated 5 million tons of CO2 emissions each year.

Similar results are being achieved in India, Kenya, Mongolia and many other countries around the world. Now that the climate deal has been struck, it’s time for countries to scale up action to make their economic development more sustainable and fully climate operational.

Publication does not imply endorsement of views by the World Economic Forum.

To keep up with the Agenda subscribe to our weekly newsletter.

Author: Andy Shuai Liu is an online communications producer with the World Bank focusing on issues related to the environment, energy and natural resources.

Image: A worker inspects solar panels at a solar Dunhuang, 950km (590 miles) northwest of Lanzhou, Gansu Province, China. REUTERS/Carlos Barria.

Posted by Andy Shaui Liu - 09:42

All opinions expressed are those of the author. The World Economic Forum Blog is an independent and neutral platform dedicated to generating debate around the key topics that shape global, regional and industry agendas.

What are Europe’s big challenges in 2016? By Robin Niblett Jan 5 2016

European Union

Future of Government

migration

What are Europe’s big challenges in 2016?

By Robin Niblett

Jan 5 2016

This article is published in collaboration with Chatham House.

In a number of areas, 2016 could be the year when international affairs begin at least to stabilise after the rollercoaster ride of unexpected crises seen since 2014.

151204-old age dependecy ratio europe map

Resolving Brexit

It is possible that the British people could get a vote as early as June on whether the country should remain in the EU or leave. This will be a seminal moment, not just for the UK, but for the EU as a whole.

For the UK, leaving would entail major diplomatic distraction and economic disruption while it negotiates the terms of its departure, the likely resignation of the prime minister, and steps towards a new referendum on Scottish independence.

Remaining in the EU would allow the government to focus on its economic agenda – including the still difficult objective of reducing the deficit and raising productivity – and on regaining a position of influence on issues of importance to its security, from the fight against Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) to working with its EU neighbours on controlling immigration.

In the end, the EU referendum campaign will revolve not around the prime minister’s recent negotiations, but rather on whether the British people feel they will be safer, economically and personally, inside the EU or outside.

Managing immigration into Europe

More than 1.8 million people entered the EU illegally between January and October 2015, with some 980,000 applying for asylum. These numbers include refugees from conflicts in Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan and economic migrants from the Balkans, the Middle East and Africa.

The European Commission has estimated(opens in new window) that, even if the EU accepted 1.4 million immigrants a year for the next three decades, the EU would still end up having two working-age people for every person aged over 65, compared with four today. So added numbers should be welcome.

But the concentration of large-scale immigration through the Eastern Mediterranean and Western Balkans and into a concentrated number of destinations (principally Germany, Hungary, Italy and Sweden) has thrown into sharp relief the inadequacy of the EU’s Schengen Agreement.

In 2016, EU governments will have under six months to prepare themselves for the next summer spike in migration flows across the Mediterranean. Arriving at consensus among EU member states will be very difficult, especially as the migration issue has strengthened nationalist parties across the EU.

But, even if Schengen is suspended, the scale of the challenge is likely to drive governments to strengthen external EU border controls, finance processing centres and better distribute arrivals across the EU.

ISIS – here to stay?

An additional factor likely to drive EU governments towards a more unified approach to border management will be the fear of another terrorist attack by ISIS members or sympathisers in a European city. Such an attack is not just possible, but probable.

In 2016, however, ISIS will come under the double pressure of an intensified military onslaught from US, European, Russian and Arab forces and a likely UN-brokered ceasefire between the Assad government and the main rebel forces.

The prospect of ISIS entrenching itself on Europe’s borders will force external governments to make the necessary compromises that, if successful, would convert IS from a putative “state”, with attendant financial resources, into more of a guerrilla force and terrorist movement.

Even if ISIS continues to deny central governments in Damascus, Baghdad or Tripoli sovereign control over their territories, 2015 may come to be seen as the apogee of the movement.

Russia slowly out of the cold

President Putin may hope that his participation in operations against IS in Syria in 2016 will lead Western leaders to ease the economic sanctions that they imposed on Russia in the summer of 2014, at the height of the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

This would ease the growing stand-off between Russia, the US and its Nato allies, which has been a major destabilising factor in international affairs in the past 18 months.

It seems unlikely that EU sanctions linked to eastern Ukraine will be lifted without full implementation of the Minsk II agreement (including the Ukrainian government regaining control of the border between the Donbass and Russia, which remains a distant prospect).

However, both sides appear to want to cap the recent escalation of tensions, and easing sanctions could offer an interim path in 2016 towards a thaw in Russia-Western relations.

Although there will be no return to the status quo ante, 2016 could witness the beginning of two fundamentally different systems of economic and political governance finding a way to live together.

Revelations but not resolutions

There will be plenty of other foreign policy challenges in 2016, such as responding to China’s rise in East Asia, a possible worsening of the Israeli-Palestinian stand-off, or destabilisation in vulnerable countries from the gradual tightening of US interest rates or the persistence of low oil and other commodity prices.

The pressures driving migration to the EU will not disappear in 2016, nor will IS – especially if growing Saudi-Iranian tensions scupper a deal over Syria.

Implementing the trade agreement, including the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area(opens in new window), between Ukraine and the EU in January will create another bone of contention with Moscow.

Also, if David Cameron wins the referendum to keep the UK in the EU, some Conservative MPs may choose to leave their party rather than toe the line of continued EU integration. With a narrow 12-seat parliamentary majority, this could cause serious domestic problems for the UK government.

But it is not unreasonable to take a more optimistic perspective. The West is adjusting, and 2016 may witness some stabilisation of the plethora of simultaneous international crises that have so stressed governments across the world for the past two years.

Publication does not imply endorsement of views by the World Economic Forum.

To keep up with the Agenda subscribe to our weekly newsletter.

Author: Dr Robin Niblett is the Director of Chatham House.

Image: European Union flags fly outside the European Commission headquarters in Brussels. REUTERS/Thierry Roge.

Posted by Robin Niblett - 11:19

Here's the kind of damage North Korea could do if it went to war

Jeremy Bender

Jan. 7, 2016, 4:05 PM
21,004

REUTERS/KCNANorth Korea military parade.

Tensions spiked between North Korea and the rest of the world after Pyongyang claimed that it successfully tested a miniaturized hydrogen bomb on Wednesday.

The test, if confirmed, would be agame-changer in East Asia.

A Hydrogen bomb would indicate that North Korea's nuclear capabilities are quickly growing and that the country could be on the path to develop tactical nuclear weapons.

The test on Wednesday would be North Korea's fourth test of a nuclear weapon, and the third under Kim Jong Un. Following North Korea's announcement, world leaders unanimously reacted with disapproval, but there is little that the world can do to directly influence Pyongyang.

Still, the entire episode shows just how precarious the situation remains on the Korean peninsula. In the event of a war, North Korea would most likely be overthrown by the combined forces of South Korea and the US, but not before Kim Jong Un and his military would be able to do some serious damage to North Korea's southern neighbor.

Harry J. Kazianis, writing for The National Interest, notes that the Kim regime has five weapons that could cause mass fatalities and sow extreme panic throughout South Korea and even possibly in the US.

Firstly, Kazianis notes that Pyongyang could use dirty bombs against South Korea. North Korea is known to have dug tunnels beneath the demilitarized zone that divides the peninsula.

Google Maps/Amanda Macias/Business Insider

North Korean operatives could sneak through the tunnels carrying the materials necessary to plant dirty bombs in major cities throughout the South.

If North Korea's nuclear program is indeed advancing, the potential miniaturization of nuclear weapons is cause for even greater concern. Hypothetically, Pyongyang could develop weapons about the size of trash cans that have yields in the range of hundreds of kilotons.

Additionally, Kazianis writes, North Korea could simply place raw nuclear material on a short-range rocket bound for Seoul. Even if inaccurate, the weapon would still cause mass panic.

Secondly, North Korea could bring to bear chemical and biological weapons against South Korea. The Nuclear Threat Initiative notes that Pyongyang most likely has the third-largest stockpile of chemical weapons on the planet, including various nerve agents.

Additionally, a North Korean defector to Finland brought 15 gigabytes of data that showed Pyongyang tested chemical and biological agents on its own citizens.

North Korea has also released images in which Kim is seen touring the Pyongyang Bio-technical Institute, which is intended to produce fertilizer. Numerous weapons experts, however, have said the facility is probably a cover and can instead produce anthrax on a military level.

North Korea Kim Jong Un Anthrax Facility

Reuters/KCNAKim Jong Un touring the Pyongyang Bio-Institute in June.

The third extremely dangerous tool North Korea could use in a war would be a nuclear strike against Alaska or Hawaii. The success of any strike is a definite long shot, Kazianis says, but it could be increasingly plausible in the coming decades.

North Korea has spent tremendous capital on both its nuclear- and ballistic-missile programs and, in the event of a nuclear strike, the success would not be measured by the number of casualties as much as by the mayhem it could cause.

ReutersNorth Korea military parade.

In April, Adm. Bill Gortney, the general in charge of North American Aerospace Defense Command (Norad), said at a Pentagon news conference that North Korea had "the ability to put a nuclear weapon on a KN-08 and shoot it at the homeland." Gortney, however, did qualify his statement by saying he was confident that US missile defense would be able to down any incoming North Korean missile before it struck.

Fourthly, North Korea could cause extreme damage against South Korea simply with conventional artillery. The Kim regime has the world's largest artillery force, with about 10,000 active pieces, all of which are aimed directly at Seoul.

Though a vast majority of these weapons may not function properly or may be incapable of hitting Seoul because of a lack of maintenance and their old age, the barrage is still enough to spread mass panic and cause a huge number of civilian casualties.

Reuters/KCNANorth Korean soldiers training in an undisclosed location in this picture released by the North's official KCNA news agency in Pyongyang in 2013.

North Korea's last major lethal weapon, according to Kazianis, is its cybermilitary abilities. Little is definitively known about North Korea's cyberarmy and its capabilities. But this army has proved extremely adept.

The US has blamed and sanctioned North Korea for the massive hack of Sony in December 2014. Additionally, South Korea blamed Pyongyang for cyberattacks against a nuclear reactor in the country in December 2014.

The fear is that as North Korea's cyberarmy becomes increasingly competent, it may decide to cripple South Korea's electrical grid or hack into various South Korean or US military installations.

Still, even with these potentially lethal weapons at its disposal, North Korea remains a hermit state. And though Pyongyang may be able to deal substantial damage to South Korea in the opening salvos of a war, it would be highly unlikely that Pyongyang could win any military conflict given the staunch backing of South Korea by the US.

NOW WATCH: North and South Korea agree to ease tensions

More property agents throwing in the towel

Lynette Khooynkhoo@sph.com.sg@LynetteKhooBT

Buffeted

JAN 9, 20165:50 AM

Singapore

MORE casualties in Singapore's real estate agency business have emerged during the latest licence-renewal period with the Council for Estate Agencies (CEA), but agency honchos are split in their views on whether the worst is over for the industry.

Many of the 30 largest agencies, which account for nearly eight in 10 of the more than 30,000 registered salespersons here, lost a significant number of their agents after the October-to-December CEA-licence renewal period. Of the 30 agencies, 22 have been left with fewer agents this month than last month; ECG property and HSR International Realtors shrank the most in percentage terms.

CEA's aggregated statistics on the number of agencies and salespersons will be released only later this month or in early February.

ERA Realty, with 5,947 agents as of Friday, and PropNex Realty, with 5,506, remain the two largest agencies, even after shedding 6.6 per cent and 8.9 per cent of their agent pools respectively. In Huttons Asia, a distant third, the number of agents fell below the 3,000 after 10.7 per cent of its agents dropped out of the firm.

Jack Chua, CEO of ERA Realty, said he expects a bottoming-out for the agency industry as volumes of resale and rental transactions in both the private and the HDB market had already turned a corner last year, compared to 2014.

"Our transactions have increased more than the broader market. For example, ERA's transaction in the private resale market rose 35 per cent last year, compared to the market's 20 per cent increase," he said. Things should look up this year, barring external shocks and a further deterioration of the economy, he added.

PropNex CEO Mohammed Ismail said his agents clocked more than 20 per cent in transactions and commissions last year than in 2014; he expects this pace of growth to continue this year.

Nearly half his agents were active last year. The agency defines its salespeople as "active" if they close at least six transactions in the year, he said.

Some firms grew their teams - OrangeTee.com, Onehome Property (started by former ECG Property agents in 2014), Real Centre International and Century 21 (Asia-Pacific) Realty (the former UPG International and part of the Century 21 franchise network) became larger.

Onehome Property key executive officer Arthur Zhang attributed the multi-fold jump in agent strength - from 20 last January to 197 this month - to the service support the company gives its agents through digital platforms, in-house telemarketing and a customer service team that liaises with landlords and tenants.

"We offer free-of-charge handyman services for all landlords and tenants who conduct their transaction through us. This helps all parties, as our agents are not inundated with maintenance-related issues, and landlords and tenants get quicker and easier access to maintenance and minor repair services," he said.

Steven Tan, managing director of OrangeTee, said his firm takes advantage of information and communication technology to get new agents on board, and retains its existing agents by investing in training and branding.

OrangeTee grew its agent pool by 5.3 per cent from December to 2,328 agents this month and expects its salespersons to run up 20 per cent more in terms of transactions and commissions than last year, he said.

Other agency honchos were more tempered in their expectations for this year.

KF Property Network managing director Tan Tee Khoon noted a gradual recovery in volume of transactions, but pointed out that the commissions that agents earn are still a function of price or rent - and these are still muted, given that more completed residential units are coming onstream.

Some 60 per cent of the firm's salespersons were active and earning around S$55,000 last year on average; those who left the firm clocked either few or no transactions last year, he said.

ECG Property and HSR International, which shed the biggest number of agents, saw their teams shrink by 30.8 per cent and 25.3 per cent month on month respectively, to 146 and 578 this month. Both stressed that it is not a numbers game.

HSR International chairman Patrick Liew said: "Like most agencies, there are many salespersons who are no longer active in the market. We decided not to focus on renewing them, but to focus on helping and serving the active agents."

The firm is operationally in the black now, after cumulative net losses of S$10.6 million over the past two financial years, he said.

ECG Property, where some agents are said to have hopped over to Onehomes, has undergone a restructuring to become a consultancy that also undertakes valuation, asset management and project management.

Managing director and CEO Eric Cheng said the firm is shooting for higher profit margin and productivity, now that at least 80 per cent of its agents are taking home at least S$25,000 in commissions.

Singapore has possibly one of the highest densities of agents, but according to the CEA, a third of these registered salespersons hold another job; of this lot, one third are inactive in estate agency work.

Ku Swee Yong, key executive officer of International Property Advisor and CEO of the Century 21 Singapore franchise, pointed out that while the pool of more than 30,000 salespersons appears huge - it is 10 times the number of monthly residential transactions - it should be noted that the total number of market transactions encompasses rental transactions for units and rooms, landed home sales, commercial transactions and the leasing of commercial, industrial and retail properties, which are not tracked.

He commented that the current external environment is unsupportive of agents looking to get out of the industry: "In the 2009 down-cycle, some agents could find jobs in tourism when integrated resorts came onstream, but now, there are not many options for them to move on to."

Referring to the on-demand private-car hire services, he added: "Grabcar and Uber have become welcome platforms to see these people through."

READ MORE: New association minted for real estate agents

Friday, January 8, 2016