Sunday, December 13, 2015

RBS investment bank to return to profit after overhaul, CEO says

RBS investment bank to return to profit after overhaul, CEO says

[LONDON] Royal Bank of Scotland Group chief executive officer Ross McEwan said the restructuring of the investment bank is "very well advanced" and it will return to profit within four years, as he continues to shrink the division's global operations to focus on UK and western European clients.
"The work in the corporate and institutional bank primarily will be finished by the end of this year," Mr McEwan, 58, told Bloomberg Television's Manus Cranny in an interview in London on Friday, when ruling out a full disposal of the unit.
"Why would we give up great strategic positions where we are some of the biggest players of these market places, where we can make money? We'll show that over the next three to four years." European investment banks are undertaking some of the deepest overhauls since the financial crisis to bolster earnings hurt by stricter capital rules, rising costs tied to misconduct and less profitable debt trading. Since taking over two years ago, Mr McEwan has eliminated thousands of jobs, exited countries around the globe and sold assets to help return Britain's largest government-owned lender to an annual profit and resume dividends.
Mr McEwan, who succeeded Stephen Hester in October 2013, said the investment bank has "strategic strengths" in rates, foreign- exchange and credit including debt capital markets, and isn't losing market share among its target clients in the UK and western Europe. RBS will take "another two to three years" to reduce the number of countries the division operates in to about 13 or 14 from 37 when he started, according to the CEO.
RBS has made seven-consecutive annual losses since receiving 45.5 billion-pounds (S$97.6 billion) in the world's biggest taxpayer bailout. The shares have dropped about 28 per cent this year, making it the second-worst performer among Britain's five largest lenders.
At the corporate and institutional bank, which houses securities-trading activities, the loss almost doubled to 1 billion pounds in the third quarter as revenue slumped by nearly half. Income from trading products tied to currencies declined 30 per cent, while revenue from interest-rate trading and credit trading tumbled 14 per cent and 68 per cent, respectively.
RBS plans to cut its risk-weighted assets to below 300 billion pounds this year and exit most of the assets placed in RBS Capital Resolution, its bad bank. The lender last month announced the disposal of its Russian banking assets to Expobank LLC for an undisclosed amount after earlier completing a sale of Citizens Financial Group in the US.
"Because we've had such a good start over the last two years and taken so many assets off the books and recreated our capital position so quickly, we're left in a position now that we can go a little bit slower next year if that means we get a better value for the assets we've still got left to sell,," Mr McEwan said.
"It's not my objective to go slower, my objective is to finish the job by the end of next year." RBS is also aiming to sell another "few percentages" of its commercial loan book in the next two years after the Bank of England indicated lenders' exposure to the asset class may face more scrutiny in future stress tests. RBS has the greatest exposure to the debt of any British bank at 43.3 billion pounds, according to a report by KPMG printed in the Times on Dec 7. At its peak seven years ago, the bank had lent more than 50 billion pounds to commercial real estate in the UK and Ireland, Mr McEwan said.
The CEO reiterated he aims to deal with the remaining "big conduct issues" by the end of 2016 in order to resume dividend payments the following year. The bank is awaiting a settlement with US authorities over claims of misconduct in its handling of mortgage-backed securities. The charge could be as much as 5.2 billion pounds, Chintan Joshi, an analyst at Nomura International Plc, wrote in a report in October.
"We've still got the mortgage-backed issue in the US and we've clearly said to the market that we don't know how big it is, but we suspect it will be a big one," Mr McEwan said. "One of my hallmarks has been to 'build capital, build capital, build capital' because if you've got a strong base, no matter what the shock, you can get yourself through it." The Bank of England will probably keep the key interest rate at a record low through 2016, according to McEwan.
"We're building our business around the fact that they won't be moving and if they do, that's nice to see," he said. "You've got to be strong on the cost position because you're not getting growth in your revenue. A lot of businesses have relied on interest rates to give them revenue and it hasn't happened." McEwan declined to comment on whether he'll take his first bonus since assuming the role, calling it a "distraction." With RBS still 73-per cent government owned, the bank needs to be "aware of how the public feel about us and particularly what we do in terms of remuneration," he said.
BLOOMBERG

Asia: Stocks drop as oil rout deepens, yuan extends slide

Asia: Stocks drop as oil rout deepens, yuan extends slide

[TOKYO] Asian stocks fell on Monday and China's yuan hit fresh 4-1/2 year lows as plunging oil prices added to investors' nervousness about riskier assets ahead of an expected US rate rise by the Federal Reserve later in the week.
The People's Bank of China (PBOC) on Monday continued guiding the currency lower, setting the yuan/dollar official midpoint at its weakest since July 2011.
China decision to loosen its grip on the yuan and allow slow but steady depreciation in recent weeks had added to concerns that the world's second-biggest economy may be more fragile than expected.
The PBOC said late on Friday it has begun publishing a yuan index rate against a basket of currencies, seen by some as a green-light for more devaluation which could in turn pressure other emerging Asian currencies.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan hit a 2-1/2-month low and was last down 1.4 per cent.
Japan's Nikkei slumped more than 3 per cent in early trade and was down 2.4 per cent by late morning as falling commodity prices hit shares of energy companies and trading houses.
South Korea's Kospi retreated 1 per cent. Australian shares dropped 1 per cent and Shanghai stocks dipped 0.2 per cent.
For now, investors looked past better-than-expected Chinese indicators released over the weekend.
Data on Saturday showed factory output growth in China accelerated to a 5-month high in November, while retail sales rose at an annual 11.2 per cent pace - the strongest this year.
On Friday, the Dow sank 1.8 per cent and the S&P 500 lost 1.9 per cent as plunging crude prices added to fears of a possible spike in volatility if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates on Wednesday for the first time in nearly a decade, as widely expected. "It's fair to say that equities are going to be truly tested over the coming four days, and the Fed will be a catalyst for volatility in the lead up to Thursday," wrote Evan Lucas, market strategist at IG in Melbourne.
A US rate hike would be a first step towards normalising monetary conditions after an extended period of loose policy, which had helped shore up riskier assets.
Oil prices continued their freefall after the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that global oversupply of crude could worsen next year.
US crude was down 0.8 per cent at US$35.32 a barrel after touching US$35.16 on Friday, the lowest since February 2009. Brent crude fell below US$38 a barrel for the first time in seven years Friday and was last down 0.5 per cent at US$37.75.
In currencies, the dollar was little changed at 120.97 yen after shedding 0.5 per cent on Friday, when it stooped to a near 6-week low of 120.585. The euro was steady at US$1.0972 after gaining about 0.4 per cent on Friday.
The greenback was hurt as long-dated US Treasury yields slumped to multi-week lows on Friday as the continuing decline in crude prices and weak equities drove investors to safe-haven government debt.
The forex market is also keeping an eye on the Chinese currency after Beijing surprised some by appearing to shift the management of the yuan, or renminbi, towards a trade-weighted, currency basket basis instead of exclusively tracking the US dollar.
China late on Friday launched a new trade-weighted yuan exchange rate index, saying it was intended to discourage investors from exclusively tracking the currency's fluctuations against the greenback.
"While some will see this as cover for currency devaluation, we suspect the goal is to keep the renminbi's value broadly stable rather than be compelled to have it follow the dollar higher, as it has over the past couple of years," Capital Economics said in a note.
"But the haphazard way in which information is dribbling out is doing nothing to generate confidence." Spot yuan fell to 6.4647 to the dollar, down about 0.2 per cent from Friday's close and taking its losses far this year to just over 4 per cent.
The Australian dollar, often used as a proxy for China-related trades, touched a 3-week low of US$0.7160 after initially rising to US$0.7218 in response to the upbeat China data released over the weekend.
REUTERS

Yuan hits 4-1/2-year low as China aims to loosen peg to dollar

Yuan hits 4-1/2-year low as China aims to loosen peg to dollar

[SHANGHAI] China's yuan hit a fresh 4-1/2-year low to the dollar on Monday, after the central bank said it had begun publishing a yuan exchange rate weighted against a basket of currencies, a move that will eventually loosen the currency's link to the greenback.
The China Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS) announced after the market close on Friday that it had launched a new trade-weighted yuan exchange rate index - a move that suggests Beijing will let the yuan weaken further against the dollar.
The announcement by CFETS, a unit of the central bank, shows Beijing's intention to gradually make the yuan an independent currency, traders said. "The weightings clearly show that China intends to get rid of the yuan's reliance on the dollar over time," said Huang Yi, head of forex trading at China Guangfa Bank in Shanghai. "As such, the yuan's movements will be more market-oriented and rely on economic and financial fundamentals in the long run." The yuan is set to depreciate against the dollar in the near term due to a slowdown in the world's second-largest economy and a strengthening dollar as the US Federal Reserve prepares to raise interest rates this week, traders said.
The People's Bank of China set the midpoint rate at 6.4495 per dollar prior to market open, its weakest level since 2011, and 0.2 per cent weaker than Friday's fix of 6.4358.
The spot market opened at 6.4623 and was changing hands at 6.4588 at midday, 0.05 per cent weaker than the previous close. The spot rate is currently allowed to trade with a range 2 per cent above or below the official fixing on any given day.
Spot yuan fell to 6.4665 in early trade, its weakest point since July 2011.
Offshore yuan was trading 1.38 per cent weaker than the onshore spot rate at 6.5492 per dollar, its biggest discount against onshore yuan since early September, indicating poor sentiment towards the yuan in overseas markets.
WEIGHTINGS In an explanation to the move, the PBOC said in a statement on its website on Monday that the yuan has the conditions to basically remain stable in the medium to long term. "Referring to a basket of currencies does not mean to peg to the basket," the PBOC said. "While market entities should not peg (yuan) to the dollar from now on but to refer to a basket of currencies, it takes time for them to get accustomed to the new situation.
The CFETS yuan index covers 13 currencies, with the dollar given a weighting of 26.4 per cent, the euro 21.39 per cent and the Japanese yen 14.68 per cent.
The weightings largely reflect China's trade status, but taking into considerations that the greenback is also used by China for large amounts of settlement of non-Chinese-US trade, the dollar's weighting is relatively low, traders said.
Still, the dollar weighting implies that Beijing hopes to gradually settle more trade directly between the Chinese yuan and the currencies directly involved in trade, they said. "While the dollar accounts for more than 50 per cent of China's foreign trade settlement for now, the weighting can be regarded as Beijing's target for the future," said a senior trader at a major European bank in Shanghai. "That suits China's ambition to make the yuan an independent global reserve currency." CFETS said the index was at 102.93 on Nov. 30, a rise of 2.93 per cent from its starting point of 100 at the end of 2014.
In that same period, the yuan has fallen 3 per cent against the dollar, but gained 10 per cent against the euro and was nearly flat against the yen.
REUTERS

Reckitt Benckiser misled consumers on Nurofen painkillers: Australian court

Reckitt Benckiser misled consumers on Nurofen painkillers: Australian court

[SYDNEY] An Australian court ordered Reckitt Benckiser on Monday to pull several of its Nurofen pain relief products from the market, saying the British firm had misled consumers by marketing identical products for different types of pain.
The Federal Court ruled that the Nurofen Back Pain, Period Pain, Migraine Pain and Tension Headache products were in fact identical and that Reckitt Benckiser had "engaged in misleading conduct" by labeling them for different ailments. "We have known for years that they are all the same," a pharmacist at Priceline Pharmacy's Sydney city store told Reuters. "We have been advising our customers to go for the standard painkiller which is cheaper." Nurofen specific pain relief products were sold at almost double the price of Nurofen's standard painkiller, according to three pharmacies in Sydney.
Australia appears to be the first country to move against Nurofen specific pain relief products, which are also sold in New Zealand and the United Kingdom, according to pharmacy and supermarket websites in both countries.
Nurofen spokeswoman Montse Pena declined to answer questions about which countries outside Australia sold the specific pain relief versions of Nurofen. She said Australia's actions were not "directly applicable to other countries or regions".
The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC), which brought the court action, said on Monday that Reckitt Benckiser had three months to remove the Nurofen specific pain products from Australian shelves.
A date for a court hearing on a fine is yet to be announced.
The ACCC said each Nurofen specific pain product contained the same active ingredient, ibuprofen lysine 342mg, and was no more effective at treating the type of pain described on its packaging than any of the other Nurofen Specific Pain products.
Reckitt Benckiser said its Nurofen specific pain range "did not set out to mislead consumers". "The Nurofen specific pain range was launched with an intention to help consumers navigate their pain relief options, particularly within the grocery environment where there is no healthcare professional to assist decision making," said Nurofen spokeswoman Pena.
REUTER
S

Hong Kong property foreclosures seen doubling in 2016 on economy

Hong Kong property foreclosures seen doubling in 2016 on economy

[HONG KONG] Property foreclosures in Hong Kong will double from current levels by the end of next year as a slowing economy hurts borrowers' ability to service their mortgages, according to an auctioneer with 23 years of industry experience.
The average number of foreclosures has risen to 80 a month from about 50 to 60 in the first half of 2015, Tsang Kit-chun, Managing Director of AA Property Auctioneers, said in a phone interview on Friday. That's still way slower than the the 6,000-a-month pace in 2003, following a six-year property bear market, he said.
Hong Kong developers including Cheung Kong Property Holdings Ltd. and Henderson Land Development are offering enticements such as stamp-tax rebates as well as first and second mortgages in an attempt to lure buyers, as some analysts predict prices are on the verge of plunging. Colliers International Group sees prices dropping 15 per cent in 2016.
Increased foreclosures reflect the eagerness of banks and other financial institutions to call loans when owners can't afford mortgage payments, Jefferies Group LLC analysts wrote in a Nov 17 note. China's economic slowdown is exerting pressure on businesses, adding risks to Hong Kong's housing market indirectly, analyst Venant Chiang said by e-mail.
Residential properties make up 60 per cent of foreclosed properties, Mr Tsang said.
BLOOMBERG

Yuan declines to 4-year low as new index signals weakness

Yuan declines to 4-year low as new index signals weakness

[HONG KONG] China's yuan fell to a four-year low after the central bank said the currency shouldn't be measured by its moves against the dollar alone, a statement that is being interpreted as a sign it will allow further declines.
Exchange rates are a reflection of trade and investment with multiple countries and the market has to take into account the yuan's fluctuations against a basket of currencies, the People's Bank of China said on Friday. The China Foreign Exchange Trade System, which is run by the PBOC to facilitate interbank trading, published a new yuan index composed of 13 currencies, with the dollar accounting for 26.4 per cent.
The yuan dropped 0.04 per cent to 6.4579 a dollar as of 10:12 am in Shanghai, according to CFETS prices. It earlier declined to 6.4665, the weakest since July 2011. While the currency has retreated 3.9 per cent against the greenback this year, it has advanced against 12 of 16 major currencies tracked by Bloomberg. The PBOC Monday cut its reference rate by 0.21 per cent to a four-year low of 6.4495.
"The latest move suggests the PBOC will allow weaker yuan fixings," said Tommy Ong, managing director for treasury and markets at DBS Hong Kong Ltd. "The yuan is also under pressure as the US is likely to hike rates this week." Weakening Signals The central bank has lowered the reference rate, which limits the onshore currency's moves to 2 per cent on either side, on eight of the 10 trading days since winning reserve-currency status at the International Monetary Fund on Nov 30. This fueled speculation that the authority is trying to release pent- up depreciation pressure before the Federal Reserve meets Dec 15-16.
In Hong Kong's offshore market, the yuan dropped 0.21 per cent to 6.5458 a dollar, extending a six-day decline to 1.5 per cent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That took its spread to the onshore spot rate to 879 pips, above an average of 511 pips in the past month. The PBOC has been seen propping up the yuan's exchange rate in Hong Kong periodically to narrow the difference.
"With the wider spread between onshore and offshore yuan, the intervention risk in the offshore market is now higher and will be more likely to happen after the Fed meeting this week," said DBS's Ong.
The PBOC on Friday also released guidelines on free trade zones in the provinces of Guangdong and Fujian as well as Tianjin city, granting companies registered in the area up to US$10 million in capital-account convertibility quotas. In the Guangdong zone, individuals can borrow yuan funds from Hong Kong and Macau for property purchases within the area, the central bank said.
The introduction of a multi-currency index helps guide the public view of the yuan's exchange rate, which will contribute to keeping the currency "basically stable at an adaptive and equilibrium level," the PBOC said on Friday.
That reinforces other recent statements suggesting an increased focus on broader moves rather than just against the dollar, according to a Goldman Sachs Group note. It forecast that the yuan will weaken to 6.6 a dollar in a year.
"This underscores how China's authorities are increasingly looking at the currency in a much broader context, moving away from a focus on the dollar, and so too should market participants," HSBC Holdings Plc analysts included Paul Mackel wrote in a note dated Dec 12. "But this does not mean China is going to formally target a currency basket like Singapore does. We see the yuan at 6.50 by end-15 and 6.70 end-16, amid greater two-way volatility."
BLOOMBER
G

South Korea banks to strengthen guidelines on loans to slow debt growth

South Korea banks to strengthen guidelines on loans to slow debt growth

[SEOUL] South Korean banks will tighten guidelines next year when screening applicants for loans, the country's top financial regulator said on Monday, stepping up efforts by policymakers to rein in snowballing household debt in Asia's fourth-largest economy.
The Financial Services Commission's (FSC) guidelines will require banks to more closely assess households' ability to payback loans fully, moving away from the current focus on whether borrowers can pay back interest.
Banks nationwide will start calculating borrowing limits for applicants by assuming higher rates ahead to reflect US Federal Reserve's pending rate hike, the guidelines said.
The new guidelines will be enforced starting Feb 1 next year for banks located in the Seoul and metropolitan areas around it and May 2 for the rest.
There will be increased scrutiny on debt applicants who live outside Seoul and the surrounding metropolitan area currently not subject to debt-to-income ratio when borrowing money. They will be asked to provide more data on their regular income and or spending, like credit card data and insurance payments.
Banks will also aim to have borrowers amortise their loans at fixed-rates, in line with regulations enforced from last year to help borrowers steer away from non-amortised loans with floating rates.
The guidelines were formed by a joint taskforce with officials from a number of institutions including the Bank of Korea, the finance ministry as well as the country's federation of banks.
Policymakers worry higher rates in the United States could eventually filter into higher borrowing costs at home and hurt households, especially as household debt has been rising at a swift pace compared to previous years due to record-low interest rates. The current base rate is at 1.50 per cent.
Credit owed by households rose 10.4 per cent this year as of end-September compared to last year, much higher than 6.5 per cent last year and 5.7 per cent in 2013, according to data from the Bank of Korea.
South Korean households' debt-to-disposable-income ratio was 163.8 per cent at end-2012, well above the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) average of 134.8 per cent.
All of the roughly 7,300 banks belonging to 16 chains in South Korea will be required to update their screening process although banks can be flexible in the implementation of the rules, according to a FSC official.
The FSC said it will maintain the current loan-to-value and debt-to-income ratios.
REUTERS

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