Thursday, December 10, 2015

Pacific's atomic bomb refugees now face climate threat

Pacific's atomic bomb refugees now face climate threat

[MAJURO, Marshall Islands] Almost 70 years ago, the people of Bikini Atoll left their homes to allow US nuclear testing, now the Pacific islanders' descendants say they must move again - because climate change has rendered their new home uninhabitable.
Many of those Bikinians moved to Kili Island, which is 800km away but still part of the Marshall Islands archipelago.
The tiny stretch of land, less than 1 sq m in size, now home to almost 1,000 people, is around 2m above sea level, making it vulnerable to rising seas blamed on man-made global warming.
Residents say it is becoming increasingly uninhabitable; crops fail due to seawater creeping up into the soil and drinking water, while flooding and storms are increasing in frequency, regularly battering homes and villages.
When waves inundated Kili earlier this year, residents "felt as though they would all be taken out to the sea," local councillor Lani Kramer told AFP.
She said: "(People) noticed the water coming inland and thought it was strange. Within one hour, the water was up to their waists. People were terrified. Some ran to the church as it's on higher ground and camped there until the water slowly went down." "It's destroyed the little crops they had. The people on Kili depend on those little crops," she added.
Local government liaison Jack Niedenthal, like many Bikinians, feel the US owe a moral commitment to protect the islanders because their ancestors gave up their homes enabling America to conduct nuclear tests in the mid-20th century. Some hope to move to the US permanently, warning the situation is so dire they face a future as climate change refugees.
He added: "We're knee deep in water twice a year now,""It was the United States solution to put us on Kili Island. We shouldn't have to use our own resources to pay for relocation."
Residents of the Marshall islands are able to live, work, and study in the US visa-free but Mr Niedenthal says the administration should pay for flights and a resettlement package.
The US State Department was not immediately able to comment on the issue.
As world leaders meet in Paris tasked with signing the first-ever truly universal pact to curb global warming, Mr Niedenthal said he also hoped major players would consider the plight of Pacific communities on the front line of the crisis.
He said: "We're helpless, we can't do anything on our own. All we can do is just ask bigger countries to take action."
The woes of Kili are being experienced across Marshall Islands, where extreme weather has caused such problems that President Christopher Loeak warned life there would "soon become like living in a war zone".
Speaking at the opening of the Paris COP21 summit last week, he called for strict curbs to limit global warming and five year assessments to see if targets could be improved.
"We are already limping from climate disaster to climate disaster, and we know there is worse to come," he added.
"If we're to win the battle against climate change, the fossil fuel era must draw to a close ,to be replaced by a clean, green energy future, free of the carbon pollution that is harming our health, stunting our growth, and suffocating our planet."
The Marshall Islands has experienced an increased number of storms per year, and in 2014 recorded the highest king tides for three decades, which forced 1,000 to flee their homes and more than US$2 billion worth of damage.
Climate change has also exacerbated the impact of an El Nino weather pattern currently gripping the western Pacific, with meteorologists predicting it will cause a nine-month drought extending from Palau to the Marshalls.
"We experience extreme weather, have floods on some of our islands and drought on others, and have severe erosion, coral bleaching and salt-inundation in our food crops and ground water," Foreign Minister Tony de Brum told AFP last month.
Ocean inundation is now so common that Hawaii-based scientists have created a forecasting body - Pacific Islands Ocean Observing System (PacIOOS) - to give weekly projections on when they can be expected.
The normally placid lagoon on the Marshall's capital Majuro was recently turned into a cauldron by storm surges and PacIOOS's deputy director Melissa Iwamoto said islanders now had to cope with such conditions as part of everyday life.
"If the ocean swell is too high, the safety of fishermen transiting out of the lagoon to open waters is threatened," she said.
"Homes and businesses may be flooded with seawater, roadways may become impassable and even the runway at the airport may be rendered useless for large commercial aircraft.
"This is the reality of islanders living on Majuro Atoll."
AF
P

Two Koreas hold rare high-level talks

Two Koreas hold rare high-level talks

[SEOUL] North and South Korea sat down to rare, high-level talks on Friday, with each side looking to squeeze concessions from the other on stalled cross-border programmes in which both their leaders have a political stake.
The vice minister-level dialogue, held in the Kaesong joint industrial zone on the North Korean side of the border, was the fruit of crisis talks in August to ease sky-high military tensions on the divided peninsula.
The last such sit-down, with the mandate to discuss a range of inter-Korean issues, took place nearly two years ago.
"The outcome this time could have a significant impact on the path the overall inter-Korea relationship takes next year," said Cheong Seong Chang, an analyst at the Sejong Institute think tank in Seoul.
Although any talks between the two Koreas are welcomed as a positive step, precedent suggests any significant breakthrough is unlikely.
Efforts to establish a regular dialogue have tended to falter rapidly after an initial meeting - a reflection of the deep mistrust between two countries that have remained technically at war since the end of the 1950-53 Korean conflict.
Heading the South's side at Friday's talks was Hwang Boo Gi, deputy head of Seoul's Unification Ministry, which handles cross-border affairs. His counterpart was Jon Jong Su, a vice director of the North's Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea.
"There are many issues to be discussed. We will do our best to resolve them one by one," Mr Hwang said before leaving Seoul.
The elephant in the room for any North-South dialogue is Pyongyang's nuclear weapons programme. But while Seoul may well raise the issue of denuclearisation, experts said the two sides were likely to focus on more achievable targets.
"The North's denuclearisation needs to be seen as the ultimate goal of inter-Korea dialogue, not a pre-condition of it," said Kim Keun Shik, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul.
The talks in Kaesong came a day after North Korean leader Kim Jong Un said the country had developed a hydrogen bomb - a claim greeted with scepticism by US and South Korean intelligence officials.
There was no set agenda in Kaesong, but both sides have clear, if not necessarily complementary priorities.
The cash-strapped North wants the South to resume lucrative tours to its scenic Mount Kumgang resort, which Seoul suspended in 2008 after a female tourist was shot dead by a North Korean guard.
Restarting the tours would be a useful propaganda victory for North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, as well as providing a source of much-needed hard revenue.
"Kim needs to shower party and political officials with gifts and boast (about) national wealth to his people," said Nam Sung Wook, professor of North Korean Studies at Korea University.
"He also needs cash to complete a batch of recent and ongoing construction projects." South Korea, meanwhile, wants the North to agree to regular reunions for families separated by the Korean War.
Currently the reunions are being held less than once a year and with only a very limited number of participants - despite a huge waiting list of largely elderly South Koreans desperate to see their relatives in the North before they die.
For South Korean President Park Geun Hye, who came to power with pledges of closer engagement with Pyongyang, a deal on the reunions would represent a welcome feather in her cap.
Ms Park has repeatedly talked up the prospect of eventual Korean re-unification, but has offered little in terms of policy to ease tensions with the perennially belligerent North.
With only two years left until the end of her term, Mr Cheong said Ms Park was "running out of time" to try to build a legacy when it comes to inter-Korean relations.
The talks began just hours after North Korea came under stinging criticism for the second consecutive year in the UN Security Council over its human rights record.
The meeting was chaired by the United States, whose ambassador Samantha Power said Pyongyang's rights abuses represented "a level of horror unrivalled in the world".
AF
P

Climate talks go into overtime, deal expected Saturday

Climate talks go into overtime, deal expected Saturday

[LE BOURGET] Sleep-starved envoys tasked with saving mankind from catastrophic climate change aim to wrap up a historic Paris accord on Saturday after battling through a second all-night session of United Nations talks, the French hosts said.
Eleven days of bruising international diplomacy in the French capital appeared to finally open the door to an elusive deal, now expected to be delivered one day after the original Friday (Dec 11) evening deadline.
"It will be presented Saturday (Dec 12) morning for adoption midday," said a source at the French presidency of the climate talks, an annual gathering that frequently misses deadlines by days."Things are moving in the right direction," said Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius, who is presiding over the talks, according to the source who spoke to AFP.
Releasing a fresh draft of the pact on Thursday night that showed progress on some key issues, an increasingly confident Fabius had said a deal was "extremely close".
Mr Fabius instructed the ministers from 195 nations to make unprecedented compromises on the outstanding issues: extremely complex rows primarily pitting rich countries against poor that have derailed previous UN efforts.
World leaders have described the Paris talks as the last chance to avert disastrous climate change: increasingly severe drought, floods and storms, as well as rising seas that engulf islands and populated coastal regions.
The planned accord would seek to revolutionise the world's energy system by cutting back or potentially eliminating the burning of coal, oil and gas, which leads to the release of Earth-warming greenhouse gases.
UN efforts dating back to the 1990s have failed to reach a truly universal pact to contain climate change.
Developing nations have insisted established economic powerhouses must shoulder the lion's share of responsibility as they have emitted most of the greenhouse gases since the Industrial Revolution.
But the United States and other rich nations say emerging giants must also do more, arguing that developing countries now account for most of today's emissions and thus will be largely responsible for future warming.
They are arguments worth hundreds of billions of dollars, which still need to be resolved before the negotiators can leave Paris.
Among the most striking developments in the latest draft of the agreement is wording that seeks to resolve a dispute over what temperature limit target to set.
Nations most vulnerable to climate change had lobbied hard to limit warming to no more than 1.5 degrees C compared with pre-Industrial Revolution levels.
However several big polluters, such as China and India, had preferred a ceiling of 2 degrees C, which would allow them to burn fossil fuels for longer.
The latest draft offers a compromise that states the purpose of the agreement is to hold temperatures to well below 2 degrees C, but to aim for 1.5 degrees C."With this, I would be able to go home and tell my people that our chance for survival is not lost," said Tony de Brum, Foreign Affairs Minister of the Marshall Islands, one of the archipelagic nations that could be wiped out by rising sea levels.
Another key set of words the French hosts hope have been settled in the draft is a commitment for all nations to aim for "the peaking of greenhouse gases as soon as possible"."Assuming the deal does go through, this will be the first time in history at which virtually every country has committed to restraining its emissions of greenhouse gases," said Richard Black, director of the London-based Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit.
Australian Foreign Minister Julie Bishop also told reporters after the draft was released that: "There's a sense of optimism".
But everyone at the talks was fully aware that the toughest issues, primarily over money, are still to be confronted.
Rich countries promised six years ago in Copenhagen to muster US$100 billion a year from 2020 to help developing nations make the costly shift to clean energy, and to cope with the impact of global warming.
But how the pledged funds will be raised remains unclear - and developing countries are determined to secure a commitment for increasing amounts of money after 2020.
The latest text refers to the US$100 billion as a floor, potentially triggering a last-minute backlash from the US and other developed nations.
Another remaining flashpoint issue is how to compensate developing nations that will be worst hit by climate change but are least to blame for it.
The developing nations are demanding "loss and damage" provisions, which Washington is particularly wary of as it fears they could make US companies vulnerable to legal challenges for compensation.
Most nations submitted to the UN before the conference their voluntary plans to curb greenhouse gas emissions from 2020, a process that was widely hailed as an important platform for success.
But scientists say that, even if the cuts were fulfilled, they would still put Earth on track for warming of at least 2.7 degrees C.
Negotiators also remain divided over when and how often to review national plans so that they can be "scaled up" with pledges for deeper emissions cuts.
AFP

Impending volatility when FOMC meets, but S-Reits' valuation cheap now: OCBC

Impending volatility when FOMC meets, but S-Reits' valuation cheap now: OCBC

OCBC Investment Research said on Friday that the tactical paper it published in July this year, highlighting its belief that the risk-reward of the Singapore Reits (S-Reits) sector has turned unfavourable, has been proven right.
In July, it had said that investors may reap almost zero total returns from S-Reits now until end-2016, on the back of falling dividends and capital loss.
Rightly so, the FTSE ST Reit Index had subsequently fallen 11.5 per cent since the report was published, with its year-to-date trough coming in about one month after the report.
"Looking ahead, the S-Reits sector's market-cap weighted distribution per unit (DPU) growth is expected to come in at 3.3 per cent year-on-year for FY15/16, before easing to 2.6 per cent in FY16/17 and 1.8 per cent in FY17/18.
"This is due to declining rentals, rising operating costs and less favourable demand and supply dynamics within the various industries."
OCBC also noted the increasing possibility of a December rate hike, which would bring volatility to the asset class.
"The Fed funds futures market has priced in a 78 per cent probability of a Fed lift-off during the next FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting from Dec 15-16, a stark increase from the 41 per cent probability as at Sept 30, 2015.
"The Fed is likely to finally begin normalising its interest rates after an unprecedented period of near zero rates over the past seven years, and we find this unsurprising, given the recent solid October and November non-farm payrolls data, while the US unemployment rate stayed constant at 5 per cent, the lowest in more than seven years.
"In addition, the Fed Chairperson Janet Yellen also appears to have been preparing the markets for this imminent event, sounding more hawkish during her recent statements. We believe there may still be increased volatility ahead, even after the overhang of the Fed funds rate hike is lifted, as the attention of the market would then turn towards how aggressively the Fed would subsequently raise its benchmark rates."
That said, S-Reits' valuations look quite cheap right now, it said.
"Although our thesis of slowing DPU growth remains intact and we are cognisant of headwinds that will continue to plague the sector ahead, we opine that the market has priced in some of these negatives and current sector valuations are not demanding."
The FTSE ST Reit Index is trading at a forward yield spread of 4.7 percentage points against the Singapore government 10-year bond yield, as compared to the five-year average of 4.3 percentage points.
OCBC is thus keeping its "neutral" rating on the S-Reits sector, and recommending a bottom-up stock picking strategy.
It prefers S-Reits with solid execution capabilities, defensive attributes and good risk-reward profiles. CapitaLand Mall Trust, Frasers Centrepoint Trust and Keppel DC Reit rank among its favourites
.

China's economy shows initial signs of recovery: stats bureau

China's economy shows initial signs of recovery: stats bureau

[BEIJING] China's economy is showing early signs of recovery and there will be more positive signs in coming months as government support policies gain traction, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said on Friday.
Sheng Laiyun, spokesman of the NBS, said there was a high possibility that China's production recovered in November due to improved domestic demand, according to a statement on the agency's website.
Sheng reiterated that he was fully confident that China could reach its economic growth target of around 7 per cent in 2015.
REUTERS

China energy giant CGN strikes 1.6b euro French solar deal

China energy giant CGN strikes 1.6b euro French solar deal

[BORDEAUX] Energy giant China General Nuclear Power Corporation (CGN) said Thursday it plans to invest 1.6 billion euros (S$2.2 billion) over five years in a French firm which produces photovoltaic panels for solar power.
The agreement, which is set to create up to 3,000 jobs, "is for a minimum 1 gigawatt (of power) over five years," Johnny Schlosmacher, director of Bordeaux-based firm Inovia Concept Développement (ICD), told AFP after inking the deal with CGN's European wing.
The partners will work to roll out the technology to be installed on buildings owned by supermarkets, services groups and agricultural and horticultural societies looking to construct hangars, greenhouses, sheds or other outbuildings.
Earlier this year, China's state-owned CGN reached agreement with French giant EDF Energy to participate in the construction of a nuclear power plant at Hinkley Point in Britain.
In France, iIn exchange for shared operational costs, ICD will compile technical studies and building construction charges.
"The investor receives payment through the energy produced by the installation" which will be sold on to EDF for between 9 and 13,5 cents per kWh, according to Mr Schlosmacher.
A hangar fited out with solar panels produces some 100 kWh, or some 1,250 hours of energy on average per year, Mr Schlosmacher estimates.
Created in 2012 and employing 23 staff and 70 freelance technical workers, ICD already has around 1,800 farm depots producing some 140 megawatts of power nationwide, but bringing in the Chinese allows them considerably to upscale their ambitions.
"We are currently working on 150 projects a month - the target is to move to 300," said Mr Schlosmacher.
Solar power has yet to take off in France to the extent it has in neighbouring Spain and Germany, but Thursday's announcement follows on the heels of the inauguration earlier this month of Europe's biggest solar farm south of Bordeaux emitting 300 megawatts of power on a 250 ha site.
AF
P

IMF accused of bowing to political pressure in Ukraine support

IMF accused of bowing to political pressure in Ukraine support

[WASHINGTON] Has the world's crisis lender become politicised?
The International Monetary Fund has been accused of giving in to political pressure in dropping a long established rule on prudential lending on Tuesday so that it can proceed with assistance for Ukraine.
That follows similar charges that the fund, the world's essential backstop in financial crises, bent its rules to support a bailout of Greece, and most recently to admit China's renminbi (or yuan) currency into the IMF's basket of elite reserve currencies.
The newest move on Ukraine drew a rare, virulent outburst from Moscow, which said it "seriously undermines" its confidence in the IMF's decisions.
On Tuesday, the IMF board voted to drop a rule that forbids the fund from lending to member countries that are in arrears on loans to other official lenders, including sovereign governments.
That move opens the door for the IMF to release new funds for Ukraine even if it misses payments on a US$3 billion loan from Russia.
An impasse in talks over the loan - which Kiev wants Moscow to partly write off - threatens to block the IMF proceeding with a US$17.5-billion rescue plan for Ukraine.
The IMF "has for the first time in its history taken a decision aimed at supporting a borrowing country counter to existing agreements, solely for political reasons," said Russian Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev.
And, writing in the Financial Times on Thursday, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said the decision "may raise questions as to the impartiality of an institution that plays a critical role in addressing international financial instability." "Its well-founded principles should be changed only after due consideration, and not in response to the politics of the moment."
The IMF stressed that the rule revision had been in discussion since 2013, well before the eruption of the Ukraine crisis.
"The need for this reform has been evident for some time now," said Hugh Bredenkamp, an IMF official.
Changing the policy, he argued, effectively strengthens the incentives for official creditors to a country to work together to solve its problems.
Even so, the timing raises questions.
"It was right to move, but the timing is not right," said Andrea Montanino, Italy's former representative on the IMF executive board.
"This was a mistake to do it in a rush, and that gives the impression that this was an ad hoc decision," he told AFP.
For several months the leading Western countries which dominate IMF policy had been searching for a way around Russia's refusal to renegotiate its loan to Ukraine.
"We will find a way," a senior European official told AFP recently, insisting on anonymity.
But does that mean the IMF was giving in to pressure from its main shareholders, the Europeans and Americans? It isn't that simple, according to experts on the issue.
The Ukraine case "was a catalyst to galvanise membership consensus on a policy change," said Domenico Lombardi, a former IMF staffer who works on the Ukraine crisis.
"The IMF seized the right momentum and moved ahead to close a gap." It is not the first time that the Washington-based IMF, which has 188 member-states, has found itself target of such criticism.
When Greece fell into deep trouble and required extraordinary IMF support in 2010, the institution grit its teeth and changed certain rules in order to step in to address a "systemic risk" to the global economy.
Some emerging economic powers, whose small voting power at the fund is disproportionate to their new power in the global economy, saw the hand of the over-represented Europeans, those most threatened by a Greek implosion.
More recently, in November, the fund's move to add China's currency to its own reserve basket, which had only included the US dollar, the euro, the yen and the pound, was seen by some as a stretch of the rules to gratify Beijing, which despite being the world's second largest economy still only has a small voting weight at the fund.
"It was a smart move but it was of course very much political," said Mr Montanino. "There was the need for the IMF to send some signals to China which doesn't have the right recognition at the fund." The fund, though, has vehemently defended its moves as rule-based.
The decision on the renminbi "was a technical process that went on over an extended period of time, and the decision is firmly based in technical criteria," spokesman Gerry Rice said.
But experts on the fund's operations say it has to operate in a gray zone.
"The IMF is a political institution which takes its decisions on a technical ground," said Mr Lombardi.
"It's not always black and white and there is room for interpretation and judgment."
AF
P

Blackstone seeking to raise US$4b for real estate debt fund

Blackstone seeking to raise US$4b for real estate debt fund

[NEW YORK] Blackstone Group LP is seeking to raise US$4 billion from investors for its latest real estate mezzanine debt fund, according to documents from an investor in the vehicle.
Blackstone Real Estate Debt Strategies III LP will originate and structure mezzanine debt linked to institutional- grade real estate in North America and Europe, according to a report to the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Public School Employees' Retirement System from the pension system's senior portfolio manager for real estate, William Stalter, at its Dec 7 board meeting. The pension board at that meeting committed as much as US$100 million to the fund, according to its website.
The fund offers investors the opportunity to underwrite complex real estate deals where traditional capital is scarce, Mr Stalter said in the report.
Fundraising for private real estate debt hit a record US$24 billion in 2014, according to data from Preqin Ltd. At Sept 15, prior to Blackstone's raising, there were 56 closed-end real estate debt funds in the market, targeting a combined US$26 billion, Preqin said.
Blackstone has lowered the performance hurdle on the new fund - the return rate it is required to meet to receive carried interest - to 6 per cent, Stalter's report said, because of the low interest rate environment. The firm has not set a cap on the fund, according to the report. A representative for Blackstone didn't immediately respond to requests for comment.
Blackstone, the world's largest alternative investment manager, has about US$10 billion in investor commitments in its real estate debt platform, which has made a 12 per cent net return since it began investing in 2008, according to Mr Stalter's report.
The firm closed its predecessor fund with US$3.5 billion in commitments in 2013, above its target of US$3 billion, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. That fund has a net internal rate of return of 9.31 per cent and a 1.12 times multiple of invested capital, Mr Stalter's report said.
BLOOMBERG

728 X 90

336 x 280

300 X 250

320 X 100

300 X600