Tuesday, November 17, 2015

China slowdown: at least job market's not falling apart

China slowdown: at least job market's not falling apart

[BEIJING] For all the angst over China's economic slowdown, there are few signs of any marked deterioration in the nation's job market.
The official gauge is as steady as ever, a new survey-based unemployment barometer is also holding up, and the government's measure of job listings versus seekers suggests there's plenty of work for those who want it.
Other measures are less rosy, with employment sub-gauges in purchasing managers indexes and a privately compiled ratio of positions-to-applicants all showing some deterioration.
Leaders of the world's biggest labour force have repeatedly said they can tolerate fluctuations in economic growth so long as the employment market holds up. While the latest data taken together show some fraying around the edges, a shrinking working-age population and strength in services hiring have kept unemployment from breaking out, allowing policymakers to keep support measures targeted and press ahead with reforms.
"The job market deteriorated slightly in the last quarter or two, but there's no sign the situation is out of control," said Zhu Haibin, chief China economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co in Hong Kong. "That's why the government is still reiterating that it will refrain from large-scale stimulus."
Still, policy makers have already cut interest rates six times in the past year, added fiscal support, and expanded a government-backed bond-swap program to help relieve indebted provincial authorities.
Given the lack of one definitive reading on the jobs picture, economists must scratch a little deeper.
Here's what they'll see: Official Measures Largely Stable China's official gauge - the urban registered unemployment rate- has stayed between 3.9 per cent and 4.3 per cent for at least 13 years. The 4.05 per cent reading in the third quarter was almost exactly the same as the last five years, even though economic growth during the same period slowed from about 10 per cent to around 7 per cent.
One reason the measure doesn't move: it excludes more than 200 million migrant workers, the most marginal in the jobs market and often first to be fired in a slowdown.
The monthly survey-based unemployment rate is emerging as a more accurate barometer, but it's only been released sporadically since last year. Sometimes that's done in speeches by officials, sometimes by state media, and sometimes at press briefings.
The rate in October was "little changed" from the 5.2 per cent in September, Xu Xianchun, deputy head of the National Bureau of Statistics, said in an interview at a conference in Beijing on Saturday. That's up from August's 5.1 per cent, which was also the level for most of last year.
Premier Li Keqiang has said the surveyed rate should be a key gauge to advise policy making. The NBS has expanded the survey to 65 cities from 31 cities, and will continue to extend it to about 120,000 households in some 300 prefecture level cities.
The authority will probably start a regular monthly release from March next year, Xu told Bloomberg News on Saturday.
PMI EMPLOYMENT GAUGES SHOW WEAKER PICTURE
The picture gets gloomier when viewed through the eyes of purchasing managers. The employment sub-index of both official and private purchasing managers' indexes in October stayed below the 50 line that separates improving and deteriorating conditions.
It's not just manufacturing. The official non-manufacturing PMI's job indicator has also languished below 50 for nine months.
RATIOS OF JOBS TO SEEKERS MIXED
The official ratio of jobs available to job seekers was about 1.09 in the third quarter, slightly firmer than the second quarter, according to Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security data collected from employment services institutions in 101 cities. Higher figures represent an increase in the number of job openings relative to applications.
"The labour market is generally relatively active, and the nationwide employment situation is stable," said Zheng Dongliang, a researcher at the ministry, wrote in an article posted on its website. Current job losses stem mainly from the reduction of overcapacity in some sectors, Mr Zheng said.
A similar gauge based on data from recruitment website zhaopin.com shows a more marked deterioration. It slipped to 1.96 in the third quarter from 2.03 in the second and 2.46 in the first, according to a report from the website and China Institute for Employment Research, meaning the number of jobs available compared to the number of applicants is declining.
Still, with any numbers above 1 showing demand for workers is higher than supply, there's no red flag for policy makers here either.
"Demand for labour still exceeds supply, but the entire job market is trending towards weakness," the institute said in the report. "Services sectors such as Internet and finance lead demand, while weakness in manufacturing and real estate sector continues."
PRIVATE SURVEY SHOWS RESILIENCE TOO
The most recent survey of about 28,000 Chinese households shows a jobless rate slightly below 5 per cent, according to Gan Li, director of the Survey and Research Center for China Household Finance at Southwestern University of Finance and Economics in Chengdu.
"The job market in China is in good shape," Mr Gan said in an e-mail.
BLOOMBERG

Greece secures deal to unlock 12b euros bailout funds

Greece secures deal to unlock 12b euros bailout funds

[ATHENS] Greece announced on Tuesday it has struck a deal with its international creditors to unblock some 12 billion euros in much-needed bailout loans.
"We have reached agreement on everything, including the 48 additional measures" that should allow the 12 billion euros (S$18.2 billion) to be paid out on Friday, Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos told reporters after marathon talks.
"This is good news," Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem said in a statement released in Brussels, adding that the funds would be paid once the Greek parliament adopts fresh reforms on Thursday.
"Upon the completion of the agreed conditionality and the implemented legislation, the Eurogroup stand ready to support the disbursement," he said.
Greece in July accepted a three-year, 86-billion-euro EU bailout that saved it from crashing out of the eurozone, but the deal came with strict conditions.
Athens has since adopted a number of the unpopular reforms but creditors have wanted it to do more.
"Our promise to the Greek people that we would negotiate has been kept," Finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos said.
"These negotiations were difficult, and we were under heavy time pressure," he said.
"Over the summer we were pressured by 'Grexit', but this time the stranglehold was the banks' recapitalisation," he said.
Greek banks have been living under the threat of having their assets seized, like their Cyprus counterparts in 2013.
Mr Dijsselbloem, the Dutch finance minister, said that "substantive agreement has been reached on all outstanding issues" regarding the current steps that Athens must take.
The agreement covers streamlining home foreclosures, which the government was reluctant to accept in order to ensure a safety net for more vulnerable households.
A Greek government source said the compromise reached will protect around 60 percent of indebted households from having their primary residence seized.
The Greek government had sought to protect more than 70 per cent of families at risk of losing their homes, while creditors had initially been willing to exclude no more than 20 per cent from seizure.
The protections against home seizures come with strict conditions, with a review of procedures planned for 2019, the source said.
The government is to submit the agreed measures to parliament later Tuesday for a vote on Thursday, the minister said.
Eurozone officials are also expected to approve the agreement later Tuesday, ahead of a Friday decision to unlock the funds.
The funds include 10 billion euros to recapitalise beleaguered Greek banks.
After storming to power at the beginning of the year on a programme to free Greece from the restrictions of bailout programmes, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras reversed course and accepted a new financial lifeline.
He won fresh elections the deal triggered, calling the bailout agreement a "painful compromise" and a "tactical retreat" that enabled the country to avoid bankruptcy and stay in the euro.
AFP
Read more on the Greek crisis here

US, China vie for influence at Asia-Pacific summit

US, China vie for influence at Asia-Pacific summit

[MANILA] Asia-Pacific leaders will meet in Manila on Wednesday for a summit meant to forge trade unity but with the spotlight instead on a tense contest for territory in the South China Sea.
The two-day Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) gathering will be attended by regional leaders, including US President Barack Obama and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.
While the 21-nation group's mission is to promote trade, the run-up to the annual event has already been dominated by the South China Sea, home to some of the world's most important shipping lanes.
Smaller regional nations, including summit host the Philippines, are rattled by China's increasing assertiveness in the strategic waterway.
These actions have included a spate of island building on disputed reefs and shoals, and many Asian nations are looking to Washington for support.
That wish was granted on Tuesday when Mr Obama flew in to Manila and announced more than US$250 million in maritime aid to its Southeast Asian allies - including the offer of a warship to the Philippines, one of Beijing's most vocal critics.
Apec now accounts for more than half of global economic output and nearly half of world trade thanks in part to the growth spurt of China, which wants to lead Asian economies.
Washington is keen to shore up support among its Asia-Pacific allies as it tries to push its much distracted "pivot" towards the region - including the recently agreed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) free trade deal.
Mr Obama is expected to heavily promote the TPP in Manila on Wednesday, with a speech to a pre-summit conference and a meeting with the leaders of the other 11 nations who signed up.
But once again Mr Obama's trip to the region - the ninth of his presidency so far - has been blunted by events in the Middle East, with Paris mourning the loss of at least 129 people in a rampage claimed by the Islamic State (IS) group.
Many leaders attending the Manila summit flew in from a gathering of the Group of 20 top economies in Turkey that also focused heavily on defeating IS and bringing peace to Syria.
Philippine Foreign Minister Albert Del Rosario said on Tuesday ministers who met to prepare for the leaders' summit had been in unison in expressing anger over the Paris attacks.
"Everyone who spoke, spoke the same language," he told reporters.
A draft Apec declaration due to be released on Thursday and seen by AFP condemned the Paris attacks, describing them as "atrocities that demand a united voice from the global community".
Philippine authorities, which had already deployed more than 20,000 security forces for the summit, said security had been ratcheted up even higher because of the Paris attacks.
Significant chunks of the notoriously congested city have been closed off to traffic, allowing VIP delegates to experience an unclogged Manila but forcing angry commuters to suffer even longer travel times than usual.
AF
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Paris attacks: Video confirms ninth assailant involved

Paris attacks: Video confirms ninth assailant involved

[PARIS] Investigators have obtained a video confirming there was a ninth attacker in Paris among the men who opened fire on bars and restaurants, sources close to the inquiry told AFP on Tuesday.
The video indicates a second unidentified attacker could on the run along with 26-year-old Salah Abdeslam, unless the man in the video is one of two suspected accomplices being held in Belgium.
French and Belgian police have launched a manhunt for Abdeslam in connection with Friday's carnage in Paris, which left at least 129 people dead in the worst attacks in French history.
Abdeslam is believed to have fled after gunning down people at bars and cafes in Paris' 10th and 11th arrondissements alongside his brother Brahim Abdeslam, who later blew himself up outside a bar on Boulevard Voltaire, seriously wounding one person.
The video indicates there was a third suspect in the black Seat car used in the attacks, when five people were gunned down in front of the bar A La Bonne Biere at 9.32pm, a source close to the inquiry said.
The video shows the assailants firing from the car, which was later found abandoned in Montreuil, east of Paris along with three Kalashnikov assault rifles.
The third man in the car has not been identified, another source close to the inquiry said, without ruling out the possibility that he could be on the run.
AFP

Enemy of Enemies: The Rise of ISIL (Video)



Enemy of Enemies: The Rise of ISIL


Enemy of Enemies: The Rise of ISIL
An Al Jazeera production, Enemy of Enemies: The Rise of ISIL attempts to retrace the stratospheric rise of the bloodthirsty terrorist organization, and speculate on the severe consequences that may still lie in their wake.
A panel of experts from three different continents - including the former Iraq Minister of Defense Ali Allawi and National Security Advisor Mowaffak al-Rubaie - provide the majority of the film's informed commentary. According to their consensus, the United States invasion of the Iraq, and the subsequent toppling of Saddam Hussein, planted the foundation from which the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant could be born. Now rendered chaotic without the presence of its leader or any established government, Iraq's lack of cohesive identity made them vulnerable to a new and threatening insurgency.
Destabilization in the region reached a turning point with the rise of Islamic militant Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, a figure who was previously regarded as an innocuous presence at best. Declaring dogged allegiance to the philosophies of Osama Bin Laden, Al-Zarqawi inspired the ire of the United States with a series of videotaped beheadings of its captured citizens, and managed to detonate a level of civil war in the region through his mass bombings of sacred landmarks. At the height of al-Zarqawi's rule, the region was suffering up to 5,000 deaths a month. Upon his death in a United States air strike, the snake of terrorism grew a new tail and called itself ISIL.
Throughout this unfortunate string of events, the perception of the United States and their role in the region began to transform on all sides. Were they liberators, as their leaders insisted them to be, or were they facilitators of a new realm of mayhem? The film's expert panel consists of voices from all sides of these issues. Their debates run throughout the course of the film, and their practical and ideological differences make for fascinating and enlightening viewing.
Enemy of Enemies: The Rise of ISIL provides valuable insights into the origins of one of the most defining conflicts of our time. It is only through an understanding of where we've been that we may be able to determine where we go from here.

Anonymous has begun publishing personal details of suspected ISIS extremists

Anonymous has begun publishing personal details of suspected ISIS extremists

Anonymous protestor maskREUTERS/Stephane MaheA protester seen during a demonstration by supporters of the Anonymous movement, as part of the global "Million Mask March" protests in Nantes in 2014.
Anonymous has begun leaking the personal information of suspected extremists after it "declared war" on ISIS following the deadly attacks in Paris.
The activist collective is assembling lists of the Twitter accounts and websites of extremists, in an attempt to have them taken down. At least one post seen by The Independent contains details including the physical address of a person it says is an ISIS recruiter in Europe.
Activists claim to have successfully had accounts and sites taken down already.
The group appears to have stepped up its tactics for what it called its "biggest operation" ever, in response to the attacks that left 129 dead. Previously it had largely focused on social-media accounts.
None of the details that have been shared could be independently confirmed, and Anonymous activists have misidentified extremists in the past. But if true the details shared include the physical addresses and names of those the activists claim are involve in recruitment.
It has continued that work this time around. Its attacks on websites seem to use a distributed denial of service, a technique that overloads a site's servers until they go offline. The Twitter accounts are taken down by the network itself, in response to requests the activists make once they are found.
Read the original article on The Independent. Copyright 2015. Follow The Independent onTwitter.

The Bitcoin Gospel (Video)



The Bitcoin Gospel

 

The Bitcoin Gospel
A devoted group of entrepreneurs and activists believe they see the writing on the wall, and they're determined to add a new chapter. In their view, the world banks and governments harbor too much control over the financial vitality of the masses. But what if an ordinary citizen could bypass all the regulation and manipulation of the financial industry to become their own bank? The insightful new documentary The Bitcoin Gospel examines one such method for making this hypothetical a tangible reality.
The concept took hold in 2009 following the global financial crisis of the previous year. Rising from the ashes of that catastrophe, Bitcoin represented a tidal shift in the way we procure, save and spend money without involvement or interference from banks or other mediators. In short, this exciting new digital currency held the promise of a world in which we would no longer be slaves to the financial elite. Consumers could buy and sell goods anywhere around the world without the constrictions of currency exchange or conversion.
While the popularity of Bitcoin has blossomed since its initial inception, the system has faced significant hurdles and adversity along the way and a number of setbacks are now beginning to come into focus. In cutting out the middleman, Bitcoin provides an escape from the burdensome fees that banks and other institutions normally charge for traditional transactions. But that anonymity comes at a price; it may appeal to most users for their legitimate every day transactions, but it can also empower greater flexibility for criminal activities to flourish.
Detractors also claim that the rising prominence of Bitcoin has inspired exactly the sort of elitist society the system was devised to defeat. As a result of these and other concerns, the currency has inspired the critical eye of government legislators and major players from the monetary sector.
The Bitcoin Gospel covers all of these issues and more in admirably even-handed fashion. According to the evidence and testimony presented in the film, and in spite of its myriad of potential defects, Bitcoin represents a growing movement of citizens who want to redefine the nature of capitalism on a global scale.

6 uncommon personality traits of highly successful people

6 uncommon personality traits of highly successful people

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steve jobsSeth Wenig / ReutersSteve Jobs.
On the surface, the most successful entrepreneurs seem to be the same as everyone else.
But look closely and you'll see that in a few key ways they are very different — and so is the way they start and run their businesses.
Here's a guest post from Ryan Robinson, an entrepreneur and marketer who teaches people how to create meaningful, self-employed careers.
(His online courses "Launching a Business While Working" and "Writing a Winning Freelance Proposal" can teach you how to start and grow your own business while working a full-time job.)
Here's Ryan:
When it comes to observing the world's most well-known entrepreneurs and uncovering what's helped them achieve success, it's easy to get hung up on the idea that so many of them were afforded rare opportunities at just the right time.
In many cases, that's true — just look at the impeccable timing Bill Gates had in immersing himself into the world of computing back when the industry was just getting started. However, it's far too naive to look at his success merely in a vacuum without examining other influences.
Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, and Warren Buffett, to name a few, all became incredibly successful because they were extremely well-prepared to take advantage of the first big opportunities that came their way.
In my interviews and studies with some of these successful entrepreneurs on CreativeLive, I've come to notice several key personality traits that most of them share. Without a doubt, these traits and inclinations help these business icons be more prepared to recognize and seize the opportunities they discover. Based on these interviews and my experiences, I put together this free Skill Assessment Sheet to show you exactly what it's going to take to start your own business.
When you're considering starting your own business, especially if you're going to be launching it while keeping your day job, you need to very consciously evaluate your own personal process for how you recognize viable business ideas, and how you allocate your time to pursue those opportunities.
These are the essential personality traits I've found to be most helpful in creating businesses that stand the test of time.

1. Be willing to embrace failure.

While you're not likely to achieve success if you're totally reckless, you do need to take risks along the way, and accept that there will be failures that'll line your path to success. Just about every successful entrepreneur has a badge or two from a failed business venture.
Steve Jobs didn't simply give up on his career in business when he was pushed out of his role as the CEO of Apple. This personal failure merely gave him the motivation he needed to move forward. When he later returned to Apple, he did so with a much better understanding of how to lead and work with people.
richard bransonRick Wilking/ReutersRichard Branson.

2. Be prepared to listen.

A common misconception with some of our more outspoken entrepreneurs today is that they do what they want, regardless of the opinions of others.
However, almost every successful entrepreneur has gotten to where they are because they've been very good at surrounding themselves with other talented businesspeople and taking their consultation very seriously. In a 2014 interview, Richard Branson stated that the importance of listening has been one of the most important lessons he's learned as a leader.

3. Only follow your passions.

It's all too easy to drift through life without conviction, never taking the initiative to first discover and then pursue what we're truly passionate about.
Many argue whether or not it's good advice to follow your passions, but a fact that cannot be argued is that when you're spending 10, 12, or more hours working on your own business each day, it's sure going to help if you're extremely passionate about what you're going to achieve.

4. Be curious.

Without an innate curiosity and a devotion to learning everything you possibly can about an area of interest, you're going to have a very hard time coming up with creative solutions to the world's problems.
This rule doesn't just apply to the Albert Einsteins and Thomas Edisons of the world, there's always a way to improve upon existing products and services by tweaking how you solve the problems faced by existing users. Many of the world's best innovations have come from incremental improvements in how we solve already common issues. You just need to be curious enough to uncover those solutions.
Albert EinsteinGetty ImagesAlbert Einstein.

5. Know when to say no.

Not enough is said about how to successfully manage your time in the beginning phases of starting a business (before you've hit it big), which is really the make-or-break time for your fledgling idea. Truly successful entrepreneurs are ruthless about how they manage their time, which quickly becomes their most important business resource.
I believe so strongly in the power of focusing only on the opportunities that drive the most impact in my business that I created the "Just Say 'No' Time Management System" to help me prioritize business opportunities and allocate my time resources appropriately, as they come in.

6. Find balance.

When it comes down to it, there's so much more to life than just business. Most entrepreneurs understand the importance of spending quality time with their families, taking vacations, and carving out time to reflect on the bigger picture at hand.
Challenge yourself to seek out a deeper meaning in both your work and your life. Then, you'll find that everything you do begins to feel invigorating, rather than like work.
Read the original article on Inc.. Copyright 2015. Follow Inc. on Twitter

What’s holding back China’s consumers?

What’s holding back China’s consumers?

This article is published in collaboration with Project Syndicate.
For several years, Chinese leaders have been pursuing economic “rebalancing.” The country’s longstanding growth model, based on investment and exports, is to be replaced by one based on services and domestic consumption. It’s a necessary transition for China. Unfortunately, consumption-led growth remains a distant prospect.
Yes, the contribution of domestic consumption to GDP has risen slightly over the last few years. But that mainly reflects weak investment demand, not strong consumption growth. In fact, wealth accumulation remains the primary objective of Chinese households. And, given China’s economic structure, under-developed financial market, and weak welfare state, high levels of precautionary saving will persist for the foreseeable future.
Indeed, one key factor impeding consumption is the imperative faced by China’s older workers to save for retirement. In the past, the Confucian tradition of filial piety meant that children supported their parents in their dotage. But, after more than three decades of the one-child policy, retirees cannot reasonably expect nearly as much support, and China lacks a strong pension system to pick up the slack.
As it stands, urban retirees derive about half of their income, on average, from family support. But middle-aged workers know to expect less when they retire. Even the elderly are increasing their savings, owing partly to longer life expectancy and a surge in medical costs. This contrasts sharply with rapidly declining savings rates among the elderly in the United States.
Another reason Chinese households are unlikely to increase their spending is that their income’s share of GDP has been falling – from about 70% in 1990 to about 60% 2010. (It remains at a constant level of 80% in the developed economies.)
The problem here is twofold. First, China’s growth model is distorted, as it emphasizes investment over employment growth and depends partly on wage suppression to subsidize production and exports. Second, financial repression has capped Chinese households’ savings at about a zero real rate of return.
Cheap capital and low labor costs might be good for output growth, but household demand is being throttled. In this sense, the main imbalance that China must address is not between consumption and investment, but between households on one hand and the government and corporations on the other.
151012-china us consumer spending forum chart
That’s why typical stimulus policies haven’t worked – and not for lack of effort. In the last few years, the Chinese government has been implementing the combination of expansionary fiscal policy and loose monetary policy that would ordinarily spur consumers, expecting high future inflation, to consume more.
This approach has not only been ineffective in China; it may prove to be counter-productive, with households, eager to preserve their purchasing power, saving more and hunting for higher rates of return. Already, this effect has kept consumer- and producer-price indices from rising, despite monetary easing, while inflating asset-price bubbles.
Clearly, the Chinese government hoped that positive wealth effects from rising asset prices would stimulate consumption. Instead, official encouragement of financial innovation fueled a sharp rise in the stock market, far beyond what China’s economic fundamentals merited. When the government tried to rein in the market last summer, it inadvertently triggered a large-scale sell-off, which quickly turned into a rout, largely because of those same financial innovations (for example, margin trading). Now, the aftershocks may cause consumption to decline even more.
None of this is to say that China’s quest for higher domestic consumption is destined to fail. On the contrary, unlike today’s middle-aged workers, for whom shocks like the Cultural Revolution nurtured pragmatism and wariness, China’s younger generation are optimistic about the future. They know that they can reasonably expect higher wages than their parents and grandparents earned.
Moreover, China’s younger generation are keenly aware of their quality of life, owing partly to their constant exposure to advanced-country lifestyles. As a result, they are far more inclined than their parents to spend on services and nondurable goods. When they become the main agents of the Chinese economy – that is, when they reach middle age – China’s consumption landscape may be completely different, with the country acting as a global buyer, rather than a global seller.
But that transition is a long way off. In the meantime, China’s government should pursue a different set of consumption-boosting policies, beginning with an easing of household borrowing constraints.
In recent years, Chinese household debt amounted to about 12% of GDP, compared to a massive 95% in the US. Mortgage debt equaled 16% of GDP in China, in contrast to 120% in the US. Only 5% of people over the age of 15 in China had mortgage debt, and 8.2% had credit cards; the figures for the US were 33.4% and 61%, respectively.
Clearly, Chinese households have plenty of room for more borrowing. With looser constraints on household credit, China’s government would enable its young people, like young Americans, to finance their educations and purchase more durable goods.
When it comes to economic rebalancing, China will need to be patient, recognizing that the current generation is simply too fixated on saving to provide the kind of surge in consumption that is needed. There are steps policymakers can take to accelerate progress, but, until the next generation grows up, real progress will have to wait.
Publication does not imply endorsement of views by the World Economic Forum.
To keep up with the Agenda subscribe to our weekly newsletter.
Author: Keyu Jin, a professor of economics at the London School of Economics, is a World Economic Forum Young Global Leader and a member of the Richemont Group Advisory Board.
Image: A 100 yuan banknote (bottom) is placed next to U.S. $100 banknotes in this picture illustration. REUTERS/Petar Kujundzic.

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