Oil halts drop near US$45 after biggest two-day slide in three weeks

Oil halted its slide near US$45 a barrel after the biggest two-day decline in three weeks amid rising US stockpiles. 

PHOTO: REUTERS

NOV 6, 201511:01 AM

[MELBOURNE] Oil halted its slide near US$45 a barrel after the biggest two-day decline in three weeks amid rising US stockpiles.

Futures gained as much as 0.7 per cent in New York, trimming a weekly drop. Inventories expanded for a sixth week to keep supplies more than 100 million barrels above the five-year seasonal average, government data showed Wednesday. Saudi Arabia increased pricing for December sales of all its crude grades to Asia, where refiners are earning bigger profits.

Crude has slumped more than 40 per cent the past year amid speculation a global glut will persist as the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries continues to pump above its collective quota. The dollar was steady after strengthening three days in a row as Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said a US interest-rate increase remains a possibility for 2015.

"The market needs to see some sort of conventional supply- side response," said Michael McCarthy, a chief strategist at CMC Markets in Sydney who estimates WTI is trading in a range between US$43 and US$50 a barrel.

"If nothing changes, it's more likely that oil will drop out of the bottom of the range." West Texas Intermediate for December delivery rose as much as 33 cents to US$45.53 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at US$45.33 at 9.40am Hong Kong time.

Prices slid 5.6 per cent through the two days ended Thursday, the most since Oct 13. The volume of all futures traded was about 61 per cent below the 100-day average. WTI is down 2.6 per cent this week.

Brent for December settlement was 15 cents higher at US$48.13 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Prices are down 2.8 per cent this week. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of US$2.76 to WTI.

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Fed faces challenge of how to justify possible slowdown in jobs growth: Bullard

Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard sits for an interview during the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's annual Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on Aug 28, 2015.

PHOTO: REUTERS

NOV 6, 20159:37 AM

[ST LOUIS] The Federal Reserve has been struggling to convince investors it is about to raise interest rates and now faces the risk that a likely slowdown in job growth will be interpreted as a downturn in the broader economy that will cause the Fed to hold off yet again, St Louis Fed President James Bullard said on Thursday.

In an interview with Reuters, Mr Bullard said US central bankers may need to mount a new communications campaign to convince markets and the public of a counter-intuitive idea: that slowing monthly job growth is natural at this point in the recovery, and will allow the Fed to stay on track for a likely December rate hike.

Job growth averaging more than 200,000 per month during the recovery is unsustainable, Mr Bullard said, estimating that growth of between 100,000 and 125,000 per month would be enough to account for an increasing population and a trend rate of economic growth.

"This is not Lake Wobegon. You cannot be above average all the time," Mr Bullard said. "I don't think markets have absorbed this. Everyone has in their head 200,000...The natural expectation is for the pace of job growth to slow in the months and quarters ahead. We are expecting that to happen. It would be normal, and that would not indicate poor macroeconomic performance."

The latest job numbers come out on Friday, and will be closely parsed for clues about how it might influence the Fed. A dip in September to growth of 140,000 jobs caused doubt about whether the Fed could follow through with its rate hike plans.

Mr Bullard, speaking in a conference room at the St Louis Fed, said explaining any downturn in jobs is one of several struggles the Fed may face not just in approvingg its "liftoff" rate hike, but in the longer battle to raise rates to a near-normal level.

It has been nearly a decade since the Fed last approved a rate increase, and Mr Bullard said it is an open question how members will return to a meeting-by-meeting judgment of whether to move higher.

"The committee is not used to thinking in those terms because we have been at zero for so long. When is the next move and why? That will be a healthy debate," Mr Bullard said.

The Fed used its statement last week to set the stage for a December liftoff, using language explicitly meant to correct what Mr Bullard said was a "disconnect" between the Fed's judgment that a rate hike was coming soon and investors who had pushed expectations of Fed action well into next year.

Though Mr Bullard said he generally opposes such "calendar"guidance, circumstances called for it in this case. "Market expectations had gone out so far...It was good to reel it in," he said.

The risk now, he said, is that what may be a natural evolution in job growth gets misinterpreted, and undermines perceptions of the Fed's intentions yet again.

Mr Bullard is among the Fed policymakers who are more concerned about inflation, and pushed for a rate hike when the US central bank met in September.

But the level of job growth expected as the recovery matures is something policymakers of all stripes are watching carefully. It figures into forecasts of the unemployment rate, and also into projections of what the US economy would look like if it was growing at a sustainable trend rate.

Several Fed officials have put that figure at around 100,000 jobs per month. A 2014 study of labor market demographics by top Fed staff said that in coming years between 50,000 and 75,000 additional jobs would be needed each month "to maintain an unchanged unemployment rate."

"We want to be talking more about this," Mr Bullard said.

REUTERS

    
 

Former Malaysian Premier Mahathir to speak to police on probes

Malaysia's Mahathir Mohamad during an interview in Kuala Lumpur on Oct 22. 

PHOTO: REUTERS

NOV 6, 20159:52 AM

[KUALA LUMPUR] Former Malaysian premier Mahathir Mohamad, under investigation for potential defamation, will speak to police Friday as authorities probe his criticisms of Prime Minister Najib Razak.

Dr Mahathir's aide Sufi Yusof said via text message that the country's longest-serving leader will meet with the police. The authorities opened several investigation papers after reports were made against Mahathir, Deputy Prime Minister Zahid Hamidi said last month. The probes relate to Section 500 of the penal code on defamation.

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China's industrial sector 'facing increasing downward pressure': Ministry

An employee assembles an electric car at a factory in Qingzhou, China, on Oct 31, 2015. 

PHOTO: REUTERS

NOV 6, 201510:27 AM

[BEIJING] China's industrial sector is facing increasing downwards pressure, with weak demand, sliding investment and falling exports posing the biggest difficulties for firms, the industry ministry said on Friday.

A persistent decline in the producer price index (PPI) is adding to firms' operational difficulties, the ministry said in a document issued ahead of a briefing in Beijing.

The ministry said it would encourage firms to merge and restructure, and continues to recommend firms look overseas for opportunities. The ministry also said it will promote automobile purchasing.

REUTERS