"Brexit" could cut Irish/UK trade by 20 per cent: think tank

Trade between Ireland and the United Kingdom could fall by at least 20 per cent if Britain leaves the European Union, with far-reaching consequences also likely in other sectors, an Irish government-commissioned report said on Thursday. 

PHOTO: AFP

NOV 5, 20158:09 AM

[DUBLIN] Trade between Ireland and the United Kingdom could fall by at least 20 per cent if Britain leaves the European Union, with far-reaching consequences also likely in other sectors, an Irish government-commissioned report said on Thursday.

British Prime Minister David Cameron plans to renegotiate ties with Europe before holding a referendum by the end of 2017 and the prospect of a "Brexit" already has Ireland's central bank studying the implications for the Irish economy.

The government estimates that 10 per cent of all workers are reliant on trade with the UK, which as the second-biggest market for Irish merchandise exports and largest for the fast-growing service sector, is a key trading partner for Ireland. "On the trade side alone, the impact would be greater for Ireland," Edgar Morgenroth, research professor at the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), said on whether a "Brexit" would have a greater impact on Ireland than other EU countries. "You wouldn't expect 'Brexit' to have a 20 per cent impact on trade overnight, clearly you already have contracts in place and they will change over time but the change will be quite dramatic." Ireland's government has also outlined concerns over the possible impact on peace in the British province of Northern Ireland, which shares a border with the Irish Republic and is recovering from three decades of bloody, sectarian violence.

The ESRI, which is an independent think-tank partly funded by Ireland's Department of Finance, said the impact of a "Brexit" would depend on the ultimate position that is reached.

But with or without a subsequent bilateral trade agreement, there would likely be a significant impact on trade, it said, as non-tariff barriers such as customs controls, or technical barriers would be reintroduced, putting downward pressure on prices.

Sectors such as agriculture, food and basic metals - which are relatively more dependent on trade trade with the UK - would be particularly exposed, the report said, giving one example that half of all boneless beef exported ends up in the UK.

The report added that there may also be specific tariffs liable on imports from the UK, which accounts for around a third of all merchandise imports, including 100 per cent of all Irish gas imported.

While the ESRI said there was an assumption that some negative effects could be counterbalanced by a positive boost for Ireland through multinationals relocating from the UK, its research suggested the additional attractiveness of Ireland is likely to be small with other EU countries benefiting more.

The possibility of a restriction on the free movement of people could also have a negative impact on the Irish labour market as the UK is an important destination for Irish emigrants, especially at times of high unemployment, while there could also be a displacement of immigrants from the UK to Ireland.

REUTERS

    
 

UK unveils powers to spy on Web use, raising privacy fears

In a video grab taken from footage broadcast by the UK Parliament’s Parliamentary Recording Unit (PRU) British Home Secretary Theresa May making a statement to members of parliament in the House of Commons in central London on Nov 4, 2015 about the draft Investigatory Powers Bill.

PHOTO: AFP PHOTO / PRU

NOV 5, 20158:34 AM

[LONDON] Britain unveiled plans on Wednesday for sweeping new surveillance powers, including the right to find out which websites people visit, measures ministers say are vital to keep the country safe but which critics denounce as an assault on freedoms.

Across the West, debate about how to protect privacy while helping agencies operate in the digital age has raged since former US intelligence contractor Edward Snowden leaked details of mass surveillance by British and US spies in 2013.

Experts say part of the new British bill goes beyond the powers available to security services in the United States.

The draft was watered down from an earlier version dubbed a "snoopers' charter" by critics who prevented it reaching parliament. Home Secretary Theresa May told lawmakers the new document was unprecedented in detailing what spies could do and how they would be monitored. "It will provide the strongest safeguards and world-leading oversight arrangements," she said. "And it will give the men and women of our security and intelligence agencies and our law enforcement agencies ... the powers they need to protect our country." They would be able to require communication service providers (CSPs) to hold their customers' web browsing data for a year, which experts say is not available to their US counterparts. "What the British are attempting to do, and what the French have already done post Charlie Hebdo, would never have seen the light of day in the American political system," Michael Hayden, former director of the US National Security Agency and Central Intelligence Agency, told Reuter
s

Xi meeting will maintain status quo with China, Taiwan's Ma says

Taiwan's President Ma Ying-jeou smiles while listening to a question near a portrait of Sun Yat-sen, the first president and founding father of the Republic of China, during an interview with Reuters at the Presidential Office in Taipei, Taiwan on Oct 1, 2015. 

PHOTO: REUTERS

NOV 5, 201510:29 AM

[TAIPEI] Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou said his historic meeting with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping on Saturday would help preserve the current cooperative relationship between the two former civil wars and foster future negotiations.

The ability to have the face-to-face encounter shows how much cross-straight relations have matured, Mr Ma said in his first public remarks about the decision. The Taiwanese president said China had rebuffed his request to hold the tete-a-tete on the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum this year.

The meeting - the first in seven decades between top leaders from both sides - would provide a new high-water mark in a relationship that has long been at the center of tensions between China and the US.

The face-to-face encounter, which Mr Ma was seeking before he leaves office next year, would help Communist Party leaders in Beijing preserve the economic ties that flourished during Mr Ma's tenure and shake-up the race to elect his successor in Taiwan.

Top leaders from the two camps haven't met since Mao Zedong and then-KMT leader Chiang Kai-shek raised their glasses to toast the defeat of the Japanese in 1945 before resuming their civil war.

Four years later, Chiang fled to Taiwan, beginning 66 years of separate rule marked by occasional flare-ups and no formal peace deal.

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China's Li urges Japan businesses to help improve ties

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang urged Japanese businesses to help improve two-way ties, and promised to broaden market access and provide a more open and fair investment environment for foreign companies, the foreign ministry said. 

PHOTO: AFP

NOV 5, 20159:51 AM

[SHANGHAI] Chinese Premier Li Keqiang urged Japanese businesses to help improve two-way ties, and promised to broaden market access and provide a more open and fair investment environment for foreign companies, the foreign ministry said.

The attempt to attract Japanese firms comes at a tough time for the slowing Chinese economy, which appears to be losing ground to Southeast Asia in drawing investment from the world's third largest economy.

Mr Li made the comments in Beijing on Wednesday to a delegation of more than 200 business representatives from Japan invited to visit China by the State Council, or Cabinet, which he oversees, China's Foreign Ministry said late on Wednesday.

The remarks follow a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Seoul on Sunday as the two sides try to ease tension in a relationship haunted by the legacy of Japan's World War Two aggression and conflicting claims over a group of East China Sea islets.

"I hope the business community will continue to actively support the development of China-Japan relations and cooperation," Mr Li told the delegation, adding that Japanese businesses had already made a "long-term important contribution".

China was ready to work with Japan to "expand production-capacity cooperation" and work together to build infrastructure in developing countries, Mr Li said.

China would also try to hasten negotiations on the China-South Korea-Japan free trade pact and a comprehensive economic partnership in the region.

China would also "broaden market access, improve supervision and better protect intellectual property rights to provide a more open, transparent and fair investment environment for foreign companies", the foreign ministry quoted Li as saying.

Separately, China's defence minister, Chang Wanquan, warned his Japanese counterpart at a meeting on Wednesday not to make matters worse in the South China Sea, where China is entangled in a web of competing territorial claims with Southeast Asian countries.

"The South China Sea is not an issue between China and Japan, and we call on the Japanese side not to make any moves that could make the situation more complicated," Mr Chang told Japanese Defence Minister Gen Nakatani, the Chinese defence ministry website said.

A day after meeting Li, Mr Abe told South Korean President Park Geun Hye that Japan, South Korea and the United States should cooperate in keeping the South China Sea open and peaceful.

China claims most of the energy-rich South China Sea. Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam have overlapping claims.

REUTERS

    
 

Fed's Fischer: proposals to limit Fed independence "dangerous"

Congressional influence on US monetary policy could wreck the Federal Reserve's ability to control inflation and be a "dangerous" departure from the broadly accepted norm of central bank independence, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said on Wednesday. 

PHOTO: REUTERS

NOV 5, 20158:53 AM

[WASHINGTON] Congressional influence on US monetary policy could wreck the Federal Reserve's ability to control inflation and be a "dangerous" departure from the broadly accepted norm of central bank independence, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said on Wednesday.

Inflation has been anchored at low levels for more than two decades "due in great part, I suspect, to the continued credibility of the Fed's independence from political interference," Mr Fischer told a meeting of the National Economists Club.

Making the Fed stick to a policy rule or be answerable to Congress for every policy decision would be "dangerous," Mr Fischer said, and go against a broad consensus that monetary policy is more effective when it is set free of day-to-day political influence.

Some congressional Republicans have pressed for the Fed to adopt a firm monetary policy rule in setting interest rates, and justify to Congress in a policy "audit" any cases where rate decisions deviate from that rule. The proposals are not expected to become law, but have nonetheless prompted officials to make a strong public case against them.

Mr Fischer, a veteran central bank and global finance official, argued in a 22-page lecture that central bank independence now had a long track record of success, and should not be weakened. The Fed, he said, would not be able to effectively respond to a crisis if elected officials in Congress or the administration were dictating policy.

Proposals to audit the Fed, Mr Fischer said, "would thus represent a departure from the modern governance structure that has come to characterise the Fed and leading central banks around the world ... If a congressional hearing were held every time a monetary policy decision deviated from a simple equation, as has been proposed, the Fed would be subjected to the very sort of political pressure from which experience suggests central banks should be independent." Mr Fischer in his prepared remarks did not address US monetary policy or economic conditions.

REUTERS

    
 

China's Xi heads to Vietnam as anger brews over visit

Chinese President Xi Jinping heads to Hanoi on Thursday for a visit that has drawn the ire of Vietnamese nationalists at a time of bubbling conflict over disputed territory in the South China Sea. 

PHOTO: AFP

NOV 5, 20158:37 AM

[HANOI] Chinese President Xi Jinping heads to Hanoi on Thursday for a visit that has drawn the ire of Vietnamese nationalists at a time of bubbling conflict over disputed territory in the South China Sea.

The communist neighbours have long celebrated their political and economic ties but in recent years tensions have flared in a decades-old feud over island chains in the contested waters.

Ahead of Mr Xi's visit - the first by a Chinese president to Vietnam in 10 years - anti-China activists have staged small but rare protests in the heart of the Vietnamese capital and southern Ho Chi Minh City.

"Protesting Xi Jinping's visit", said one of the banners held aloft by some dozen demonstrators Tuesday as they marched through downtown Hanoi, flanked but not arrested by at least triple the number of police.

Rallies are rare in authoritarian Vietnam but the ruling regime has increasingly tolerated low levels of dissent against its main ally China.

Relations between the two nations plummeted to their lowest point in decades in May 2014 when Beijing moved an oil rig into the contested South China Sea waters.

The anti-China riots which ensued targeted foreign-invested factories and saw the Asian giant evacuate thousands of its nationals as at least three Chinese were killed.

Mr Xi's visit is being viewed by some Vietnamese observers as an attempt to improve relations after that episode.

He "aims to calm down Vietnam and other countries over the recent construction by China" in the South China Sea, said Duong Danh Dy, a former Vietnamese diplomat in Beijing.

Mr Xi, who is due to land in Hanoi at around 0500 GMT, will meet ruling Communist Party chief Nguyen Phu Trong, President Truong Tan Sang and Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung during his two-day trip.

Last week Chinese officials told reporters in Beijing that the territorial dispute would be discussed as well as cooperation on trade, education and infrastructure.

China lays claim to almost all of the South China Sea, parts of which are also claimed by the Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia and Taiwan as well as Vietnam.

Japan and China are also locked in a row over disputed islands in the East China Sea.

In recent months Vietnam has been trying to strengthen bonds with other nations to counter China's growing regional prowess.

Communist Party general secretary Trong was received by US President Barack Obama in July, the first party chief to visit the country and the White House.

Vietnam is also party to the recently sealed Trans-Pacific Partnership, the world's largest free trade deal between 12 nations including the US and Japan but not Beijing. The TPP is viewed by some as a counterbalance to growing Chinese economic clout.

Japanese Defence Minister Gen Nakatani will also be in Vietnam during Xi's trip. He is due to tour a strategic naval base on Thursday in central Vietnam, according to Vietnamese state media.

Despite their political closeness, Vietnam and China fought a brief but bloody war in 1979 triggered by Hanoi's invasion of Cambodia.

AF
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Expedia unveils US$3.9b deal for HomeAway

NOV 5, 20156:44 AM

[SAN FRANCISCO] US online travel booking giant said Wednesday it agreed to acquire the vacation marketplace HomeAway for US$3.9 billion.

The deal comes weeks after Expedia concluded a takeover of online rival Orbitz, which won approval by antitrust regulators despite objections from some consumer groups and hotel operators.

The new acquisition would boost Expedia's efforts to compete with online travel aggregators like Kayak and the fast-growing Airbnb, which allows property dwellers to rent a room or an entire residence for short-term stays.

HomeAway, founded in 2005, has more than one million vacation listings including many from property owners under its own brand and VRBO, which stands for vacation rental by owner.

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